Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market, with a focus on high-quality products priced around 6 RMB (approximately 1 USD) [15] - The company has established a robust supply chain and a unique market position through its "high-quality and affordable" brand strategy, which has resonated well with consumers [15] - The report forecasts significant growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 58.5 billion, 65.2 billion, and 73.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates over 46,000 stores globally, making it the largest beverage chain in terms of store count, with a product output ranking first in China and second globally [15] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 81.14% of shares, which enhances management stability and strategic alignment [24] 2. Business Model - Revenue primarily comes from the sale of goods and equipment to franchisees, with 94% of revenue derived from product sales [33] - The company has a vertically integrated supply chain, allowing for cost advantages and efficient operations, which contribute to a stable gross margin above 30% [34] 3. Market Position and Growth Potential - The affordable beverage segment is expected to continue growing rapidly, driven by increasing consumer demand and market penetration in lower-tier cities [15] - The company aims to expand its store count to approximately 70,000 in China and 10,000 to 15,000 in Southeast Asia, with potential growth in the Americas as well [15] 4. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, projecting total revenue to reach 39.635 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.33% from 2023 to 2027 [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 15.40 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.81 [1]

Core Insights - UBS released its 11th "Billionaire Report," featuring Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, the founders of Mixue Ice City, who became billionaires with a net worth of 117.9 billion yuan, making them the richest in Henan [1][11] - Mixue Ice City went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 3, 2025, with its stock price reaching 618.50 HKD per share, significantly contributing to the Zhang brothers' wealth [1][11] - The company has expanded rapidly, with over 53,000 stores globally by June 2025, and reported a profit of 2.693 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1][11] Company Background - Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu started their entrepreneurial journey with a mere 3,000 yuan, selling ice cream and milk tea, and have built a successful business over 28 years [1][2] - The brothers' contrasting personalities and skills have complemented each other, with Zhang Hongchao focusing on product quality and Zhang Hongfu on marketing and expansion [5][6] Business Model and Strategy - Mixue Ice City's success is attributed to its low-price strategy combined with a self-built supply chain, allowing it to maintain profitability while offering affordable products [15][7] - The company has established five production bases across China, with an annual capacity of 1.65 million tons, ensuring over 70% of its core raw materials are self-sourced [15][7] Financial Performance - The company reported net profits of 3.137 billion yuan and 4.437 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 57.13% and 41.41% [15][7] - In the first half of 2025, Mixue Ice City achieved a net profit of 2.693 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.90% increase compared to the previous year [15][7] Challenges and Risks - The sustainability of the low-price model is under scrutiny, especially in a competitive market where product quality has been questioned due to complaints about hygiene and service [17][13] - The company faced challenges with rapid expansion, leading to issues such as supply shortages and management difficulties, prompting a strategic shift towards standardization and supply chain improvement [9][10] Market Position - Despite its challenges, Mixue Ice City has established a strong brand presence, particularly in lower-tier markets, and has been able to maintain a competitive edge through its pricing strategy [13][7] - The company has expanded internationally, with stores in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea, but faces uncertainties related to market adaptation and regulatory differences [17][13]

每经AI快讯，蜜雪集团(02097.HK)涨超3%，截至发稿涨3.13%，报435港元，成交额2.77亿港元。 ...

爱建证券指出，公司国内门店网络仍具备持续扩张空间，下沉市场与一二线城市双向渗透。公司三线及 以下城市门店占比保持在55%以上，强大的供应链能力保障了公司在下沉市场的竞争优势，下沉市场仍 有空间。另外，海外市场空间广阔，东南亚供应链本地化建设支撑持续扩张。截至25H1，中国内地以 外门店数达4733家，主要集中于印尼、越南等东南亚市场。 蜜雪集团(02097)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.13%，报435港元，成交额2.77亿港元。 消息面上，近日蜜雪冰城洛杉矶好莱坞店正式营业。该店位于星光大道"中国剧院"正对面，所在商圈消 费成熟。作为蜜雪冰城在美洲市场开出的首家门店，标志着其全球化战略再迈出关键一步，根据郑州晚 报，目前蜜雪冰城在美国的多家新店正在紧张筹备当中，巴西、墨西哥等美洲国家的门店也在稳步推 进，持续深化品牌全球化战略。华源证券认为，蜜雪集团深耕现制饮品行业，兼具客群、渠道、供应链 及营销等多重竞争优势，精准卡位平价茶饮价格带。持续看好其国内及海外市场渠道扩张。 ...

| 序号 | 名称 | 港股代码 | 最新价 V | 涨跌额 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | O 00700 | 603.000 | +1.000 | 0.17 | | 2 | 携程集团-S | 09961 | 563.500 | -4.500 | -0.79 | | 3 | 蜜雪集团 | 02097 | 421.800 | -2.800 | -0.66 | | 4 | 香港交易所 | 00388 | 410.000 | +2.400 | 0.59 | | 5 | 百胜中国 | 09987 | 379.200 | +3.000 | 0.80 | | 6 | 网易-S | 09999 | 213.200 | +0.400 | 0.19 | | 7 | 泡泡玛特 | 09992 | 200.200 | -0.200 | -0.10 | | 8 | 昨日市 w | 09626 | 191.500 | -2.400 | -1.24 | | d | 日济神州 | 06160 | 183.500 | -0.500 | -0.27 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijue Group (2097.HK), marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - Mijue Group is positioned as the world's largest ready-to-drink beverage company, leveraging an end-to-end supply chain system and a network of 53,000 stores to establish a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 335.5 billion, RMB 403.0 billion, and RMB 443.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 60.0 billion, RMB 74.0 billion, and RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 20.1%, and 10.1% [4][6]. Company and Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately RMB 258.5 billion in 2023. The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under the brands Mijue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, which target price points of RMB 6-8 and RMB 5-10, respectively. The company operates on a franchise model, generating revenue primarily from selling equipment and providing franchise services [4][6]. - Mijue Group's supply chain advantages include a comprehensive procurement network across 38 countries, five production bases ensuring 100% self-sourcing of core ingredients, and a logistics system that allows for rapid delivery to 90% of domestic county-level administrative regions within 12 hours. This infrastructure supports consistent product quality and cost efficiency, reinforcing the company's market leadership with a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector [4][5][6]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates steady expansion in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier markets, with projected revenue from product and equipment sales of RMB 326.8 billion, RMB 392.2 billion, and RMB 431.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 31.5% by 2027 [4][6]. - Revenue from franchise fees and related services is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 8.7 billion, RMB 10.9 billion, and RMB 12.5 billion for the same years, reflecting a robust growth trajectory supported by an expanding store network [4][6]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 20.3 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 44.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2023 to 2024 and 10.1% from 2026 to 2027. Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.4 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 57.1% and 13.7% [6][21]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin improvement from 29.5% in 2023 to 33.0% in 2027, alongside a net margin increase from 15.7% to 19.0% over the same period [6][21].

—— 科技产业投入守得云开见月明，市场重振对结构转型的信心。 证券研究报告 2026年餐饮行业风险排雷手册 ——年度策略报告姊妹篇 2025年12月25日 行业评级：看好 分析师 钟烨晨 联系方式 zhongyechen@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523060004 引言 浙商证券研究所认为2026年资本市场将围绕【结构转型信心重振，外需悲观彻底扭转】而展开。 —— 非美市场开疆拓土对冲关税战，美欧日财政货币双宽稳需求。 —— 系统性慢牛逐级抬高驭势而上，消费成长周期红利风格均衡。 作为年度策略的姊妹篇，浙商研究同步推出各个行业"风险排雷手册"， 换位思考年度策略最大的软肋，主动揭示市场误判的风险，前瞻研判行业最大的困难。 特别强调，风险排雷绝不是看空，而是为了更好做多，运用逆向思维强化2026年度策略观点。 2 目录 C O N T E N T S 3 年度策略风险排雷 01 年度策略 | 宏观风险 | 经营风险 02 重点个股风险排雷 热门个股风险排雷 03 风险提示 年度策略 01 风险排雷 Ø 核心逻辑 Ø 选股思路 5 • 放下显微镜，头部品牌业绩已企稳。11月初百胜中国发布2 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：林思婕/陈文博/赖晟炜 公司动态 公司近况 我们看好公司在外卖补贴退坡下实现相对稳健业绩增长，建议关注早餐等新品类测试效果、幸运咖和福 鹿家发展潜力、以及海外存量市场调整和新市场拓展情况。 评论 我们看好公司通过产品创新、线下营销及小程序引流等手段应对外卖补贴退坡影响，整体价格体系维持 稳定。此外蜜雪在部分城市试点早餐业务（推出售价7.9 元的早餐奶+面包套餐），建议关注测试效 果。开店方面，我们估计蜜雪主品牌25 年净增约7,000家，门店数未来有望稳健增长。 关注新品牌发展潜力。1）幸运咖今年以来强化果+咖产品创新并推出开店补贴政策，截至11 月24 日全 球签约门店已突破1 万家（极海数据显示目前幸运咖实际开业门店数超8,000 家，其中三线及以下城市 占比69%）。公司持续布局上游供应链支撑门店扩张，目前已与超1 万个果园合作（最大战略果园占地 2 万亩）、海南自建咖啡工厂规模达19 万亩、年产能突破2 万吨。2）10月公司公告收购鲜啤福鹿家 53%股权，主打6-10 元/500ml的高性价比现打鲜啤，我们估计单店年销50-60 万元；目前门店数突破 1,600 家，且公司计划 ...

Group 1 - China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) downgraded the rating of Giant Bio to neutral due to challenges such as a reputation crisis and a decline in sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a potential strategic adjustment period in 2026 with no clear catalysts for rebound [1] Group 2 - CICC maintained a "outperform" rating for He Yu-B, setting a target price of 20 HKD, highlighting the approval of its first self-developed innovative drug, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 54%, which could provide new growth momentum for the company [2] Group 3 - CICC maintained a "outperform" rating for Mixue Group with a target price of 555 HKD, noting the brand's resilience in growth despite reduced delivery subsidies and the rapid expansion of its stores, indicating strong growth potential [3] Group 4 - CICC maintained a "outperform" rating for Tmall with a target price of 3.88 HKD, reporting that Q3 sales met expectations with healthy inventory and stable discounts, suggesting a potential stabilization in the channel [4] Group 5 - Huachuang Securities maintained a "strong buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of 27.01 HKD, citing the completion of the Zeekr privatization significantly enhancing profits and brand synergy, with multiple flagship new models driving sales and average selling price (ASP) increases [5] Group 6 - Changjiang Securities maintained a "buy" rating for Aikang Medical, emphasizing its leading position in orthopedics and revenue surpassing pre-collection levels, with effective overseas expansion strategies [6] Group 7 - Changjiang Securities maintained a "buy" rating for Genscript Biotech, highlighting the establishment of a high-barrier pipeline in tumor vaccines and CAR-T therapies, with significant clinical trials expected to start soon [7] Group 8 - Shenwan Hongyuan maintained a "buy" rating for Tmall, noting improvements in channel efficiency and the end of a large-scale store closure phase, with a clear trend of recovery in the terminal market [8] Group 9 - Shenwan Hongyuan initiated coverage on China Railway with a "buy" rating, citing a substantial order backlog of 7.54 trillion, a high gross margin of 59.45% in its resource segment, and attractive valuation due to significant H-share discounts [9] Group 10 - Guosen Securities maintained an "outperform" rating for Zhongxin Innovation, reporting that the company's power battery installation volume ranked among the top three globally in October, with a year-on-year increase of over 75% in energy storage battery shipments [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong new consumption sector showed strength on December 22, with notable stock increases: Mixue Group rose nearly 10%, Lao Pu Gold increased over 6%, and Pop Mart gained 3.68% [1] - In the A-share market, duty-free and department store stocks surged, with Haiqi Group, China Duty Free, and Dongbai Group hitting the daily limit; Wangfujing and Baida Group rose over 5% [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized boosting consumption and expanding the supply of quality goods and services during a meeting on December 20 [1] - Hainan's duty-free consumption was significantly boosted following the full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port, with Sanya's duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day, showing an 85% year-on-year increase [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Mixue Group's stock price surged following the opening of its Hollywood store on December 20, with competitive pricing significantly lower than local brands [2] - Mixue Ice City has expanded internationally, with approximately 4,700 overseas stores across 13 countries, and plans for further expansion in the Americas [3] - Lao Pu Gold experienced increased consumer traffic due to the upcoming holiday season, with reports of long queues at multiple locations [4] - Lao Pu Gold's single-store sales are estimated to be about twice that of Cartier and three times that of Van Cleef & Arpels, indicating strong competition with luxury brands [4] - Pop Mart's stock rose over 5% following a collaboration with Heytea, marking the first global launch of a co-branded product [4]