机构：华源证券 研究员：丁一 费用端看，2025H1 公司销售费用率为6.14%，同比基本持平；管理费用率达2.94%，同比提升0.3pct； 研发费用率达0.28%，同比下降0.1pct。2025H1 净利率同比提升0.6pct 至18.27%。 盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为54.25/65.86/76.70亿元，同比增速分别为 22.28%/21.40%/16.46% ，当前股价对应的PE 分别为31.24/25.73/22.09 倍。蜜雪深耕现制饮品行业，兼 具客群、渠道、供应链及营销等多重竞争优势，精准卡位平价茶饮价格带。我们看好其国内及海外市场 渠道扩张，预计公司份额仍将持续提升，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：市场竞争加剧；宏观环境修复不及预期；拓店数量不及预期的风险 国内门店稳步扩张，海外门店侧重优化调改。25H1 公司门店数达53014 家，其中加盟门店数为52996 家。分地区看，中国内地门店数达48281 家，年初至今净开店6697 家；中国内地以外门店数4733 家， 年初至今净关店162 家。在中国，"蜜雪冰城"品牌稳健扩张门店网络、持续渗透下沉市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip and Mxue Group, while upgrading Mxue Group's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP operating profit of 4.7 billion yuan and a non-GAAP operating margin of 31%, exceeding expectations due to lower marketing expenses [2][7]. - Mxue Group's H1 2025 revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44%, driven by higher-than-expected store openings [2][8]. - Gu Ming's H1 2025 revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% year-on-year increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49%, attributed to higher store count and single-store revenue [3][9]. Summary by Sections Ctrip - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 14.9 billion yuan, with accommodation booking revenue up 21%, transportation revenue up 11%, and group travel revenue up 5% [2][7]. - International OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [2][7]. - The company has fully utilized its $400 million share buyback authorization and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion [2][7]. Mxue Group - H1 2025 revenue was 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44% [2][8]. - The company is expanding in Southeast Asia, with daily sales growth in Indonesia and Vietnam, and plans for new stores in the U.S. and Latin America [2][8]. - The Lucky Coffee brand complements Mxue's offerings, focusing on freshly ground coffee, enhancing supply chain advantages [2][8]. Gu Ming - H1 2025 revenue reached 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49% [3][9]. - The company added 1,265 new stores, bringing the total to 11,179, with a significant increase in stores in lower-tier cities [3][9]. - The average daily GMV per store grew by 21% to 7,600 yuan, benefiting from substantial takeout subsidies [3][9]. Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies - Xinda Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.953 billion yuan, a 50.6% increase, with net profit turning positive at 834 million yuan [4][13]. - Kangfang Biologics achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a 37.8% increase, but reported a net loss of 588 million yuan [4][13]. - Rongchang Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, a 47.6% increase, with a reduced net loss of 450 million yuan [4][13]. Overseas Pharmaceutical Companies - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 obesity drug trial showed significant weight loss results, with the 36mg group achieving a 10.5% average weight reduction [5][16]. - BioArctic partnered with Novartis to develop a new CNS drug, receiving an upfront payment of $30 million [5][16]. - Regeneron announced positive results for its MG drug in a Phase III trial, achieving key endpoints [5][16].

证券研究报告 蜜雪集团 (2097 HK) 港股通 1H 高质量快步增长，龙头强者恒强 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 目标价 (港币) | 590.22 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 8 月 28 日) | 435.00 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 165,134 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 317.85 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 256.00-618.50 | | BVPS (人民币) | 55.98 | 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 590.22 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 zengjun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 股价走势图 (14) 41 95 150 204 Mar-25 May-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 (%) 蜜雪集团 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the nutritional products sector, with New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) achieving a revenue of 11.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% [10] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the amino acid market, particularly methionine, with prices rising to 22,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.98% [11] - The report notes the steady performance of the vitamin A and E segments, with revenue of 2.085 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin of 58% despite recent price declines [12] Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe's nutritional products segment accounted for 64.86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 47.79%, an increase of 11.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company has expanded its methionine production capacity to 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest producer globally [11] - The vitamin segment's revenue is expected to remain stable, with recent price adjustments indicating limited further declines [12] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 4.0% decrease in sales area as of July 2025 [22] - The average price of new residential properties has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market [23] - Recent policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to provide some support to the real estate market, although the overall outlook remains cautious [24] Financial Performance - The report indicates that Beike-W (02423.HK) achieved a revenue of 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, although net profit declined by 32% [28] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, but a net profit decline of 25.2% due to lower gross margins [31] - Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) experienced a 43.29% drop in revenue to 4.597 billion yuan, while net profit remained relatively stable, reflecting a 1.27% decline [32] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the non-bank financial sector is poised for growth, driven by a shift in deposit behaviors and increased demand for risk assets [25] - The overall market is in a recovery phase, with expectations of a gradual improvement in economic conditions and investment opportunities in various sectors [26] - The report maintains a positive outlook for companies with strong fundamentals and innovative product offerings, particularly in the nutritional and financial sectors [13][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 515.11 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 460.40 HKD [1]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance, with a total revenue of 14.875 billion HKD for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.718 billion HKD, up 44.1% year-on-year [4][6]. - The number of stores exceeded 53,000, with a net increase of 6,535 stores since the beginning of the year, indicating a faster-than-expected expansion in domestic store openings [5][6]. - The company's gross margin remains stable at 31.6%, with a net profit margin of 18.3%, showing strong profitability despite rising raw material costs [6][7]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes product sales at 13.843 billion HKD, equipment sales at 652 million HKD, and franchise and related services at 380 million HKD, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 39.5%, 42.3%, and 29.8% [5]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 34%, 17%, and 16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 37%, 17%, and 17% for the same years [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 15.98, 22.34, and 29.17 HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26x, 22x, and 19x [7][8]. Store Expansion and Market Position - The company has a total of 53,014 stores, with 52,996 being franchise stores and 18 direct stores, indicating a strong franchise model [5]. - The geographical distribution shows 48,281 stores in mainland China and 4,733 overseas, with a net increase of 6,687 stores in China and a decrease of 162 overseas [5]. - The company has established significant barriers in product, supply chain, and channel, positioning itself strongly in the market despite potential challenges from external factors [6][7].

Investment Insights - The report highlights that the current moment may represent an absolute return starting point for the liquor industry, particularly for baijiu, as fund holdings have dropped to 2017 levels and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from its 2019 peak [2][6][8] - The report suggests that the liquor industry is regaining its cyclical characteristics, with a 72% valuation correction observed since February 2021, indicating a slow adjustment process [6][7] Liquor Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the adjustment process for the liquor industry involves several stages, including a decline in distributor profitability, a decrease in receivables, and a subsequent recovery in genuine demand [7][8] - It is anticipated that the current cycle will see absolute returns earlier than the previous cycle, with the report suggesting that the bottoming out of the cycle will occur when most distributors have cleared their inventories [7][8] Company-Specific Insights: Heng Rui Pharmaceutical - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported a total revenue of 15.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, with a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, up 29.67% [18][20] - The company has seen a significant increase in innovative drug sales, which accounted for 60.66% of total revenue, with a 21.80% year-on-year growth in innovative drug sales [18][20] - Heng Rui has established a robust pipeline with over 90 innovative products in clinical development, indicating strong potential for future growth [19][20] Company-Specific Insights: Jin Feng Technology - Jin Feng Technology achieved a revenue of 28.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 41.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.49 billion yuan, up 7.3% [30][33] - The wind power equipment segment saw a significant revenue increase of 71.2%, with total delivery capacity reaching 10.64 GW, a 106.6% year-on-year growth [31][33] - The report projects an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's recovery in profitability [33] Company-Specific Insights: Mi Xue Group - Mi Xue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 39.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, up 44.1% [4][28] - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 53,014 stores, focusing on both domestic and international markets [4][28] - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [4][28] Company-Specific Insights: Sanxiang Technology - Sanxiang Technology reported a revenue of 529 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 39.3 million yuan, up 89% [4][22] - The growth in domestic mainframe business significantly contributed to the revenue increase, driven by major clients such as Geely and BYD [22][23] - The report highlights the potential for steady expansion in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of the shift towards new energy and lightweight vehicles [22][23]

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 上半年业绩超预期，幸运咖加速门店布局 [Table_Title2] 蜜雪集团(2097.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 2097 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 568.0/290.0 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,747.76 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 460.4 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 694.67 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 150.88 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1，公司实现收入 148.75 亿元/+39.3%，归母净利润 26.93 亿元/+42.9%。 分析判断 ► 外卖大战+持续推新，驱动单店商品销售收入增长 今年 4 月份以来，京东、美团、饿了么等平台相继加大外卖补贴力度，现制茶饮和咖啡行业充分受益；同时， 公司持续推新，提升产品力，蜜雪冰城 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mixue Group has been upgraded from Outperform to Buy, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% [6][11][23] Core Insights - Mixue Group reported a revenue of Rmb14.9 billion for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of Rmb2.7 billion, which is a 44% increase year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3%, exceeding expectations primarily due to higher-than-expected new store openings [6][7][11] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 has been raised from Rmb5.2 billion to Rmb5.6 billion, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at Rmb6.2 billion and Rmb7.4 billion, respectively. The target price has been adjusted from HK$565 to HK$566, reflecting a 23% upside potential [6][7][11] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Mixue Group are as follows: - 2023: Rmb20.302 billion - 2024: Rmb24.829 billion - 2025E: Rmb32.459 billion - 2026E: Rmb36.238 billion - 2027E: Rmb42.233 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 50% for 2023, 22% for 2024, 31% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 17% for 2027 [5][14] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: Rmb3.187 billion - 2024: Rmb4.454 billion - 2025E: Rmb5.569 billion - 2026E: Rmb6.183 billion - 2027E: Rmb7.369 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 57% for 2023, 41% for 2024, 25% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 19% for 2027 [5][14] Store Expansion and Market Presence - The total number of global stores exceeded 53,000, with a net addition of 9,796 stores in 1H25, including 9,668 in mainland China and 128 overseas. The total store count increased by 23% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with positive growth in daily sales in Southeast Asia and plans for new store openings in the Eastern US, Western US, Mexico, and Brazil [9][11] Brand Development - The Lucky Coffee brand complements Mixue Bingcheng stores by focusing on freshly-made coffee, utilizing semi-automatic machines for on-site grinding, while Mixue Bingcheng primarily offers coffee as a supplement to its tea menu [10][11]

中国经济网北京8月28日讯 蜜雪集团（02097.HK）今日港股收报435.00港元，跌幅5.52%。8月27 日蜜雪集团收报460.40港元，跌幅5.27%。蜜雪集团2个交易日港股累计跌幅10.49%。 （责任编辑：徐自立） 近日，据媒体报道，美银和瑞银两大投行在最新发布的研报中均下调了蜜雪冰城评级。瑞银最新研 报将蜜雪冰城评级从"中性"大幅下调至"卖出"；美银将蜜雪冰城评级从"中性"下调至"跑输大市"。 智通财经今日报道《股价跌超5%！蜜雪冰城上半年营收同比增长38.3%，近期被两家投行下调评 级》显示，当天，蜜雪集团公布2025年中期业绩。得益于供应链能力、品牌IP建设和门店运营不断强 化，上半年蜜雪集团实现收入148.7亿元，同比增长39.3%；毛利47.1亿元，同比增长38.3%；净利润 27.2亿元，同比增长44.1%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 2025H1 归母净利润同增 43%。公司实现收入 148.7 亿元/+39.3%；实现归母 净利润 26.9 亿元/+42.9%。分业务看，商品销售收入 138.4 亿元/+39.5%， 收入占比 93.1%/+0.1pct；设备销售收入 6.5 亿元/+42.3%，收入占比为 4.4%/+0.1pct；加盟服务收入 3.8 亿元/+29.8%，收入占比为 2.6%/-0.2pct。 东南亚聚焦经营质量提升，国内门店持续下沉。2025年中期末门店数达53014 家，加盟/直营店分别为 52996/18 家。2025H1，公司加盟店新增 7721 家、 关店 1187 家、净增 6534 家；直营店净关店 3 家。分品牌看，参考幸运咖官 网数据，期内预计蜜雪/幸运咖分别净增约 5000 家/1500 家。 分地理区域看，内地/内地以外门店数分别为 48281/4733 家，较年初分别净 增 6697 家/净关 162 家，占比分别 91.1%/8.9%，印尼/越南门店数减少，主 因公司聚焦该区域经营质量的提升而非规模增长；马来西亚、泰国门店数量 保持稳步增长。此外，公 ...