Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" follows a period of exuberance, driven by profit-taking ahead of the "6.18" shopping festival, a wave of stock unlocks, and valuation discrepancies that have raised market caution [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 5, notable consumer stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Ice City, and Pop Mart experienced significant declines, with Lao Pu Gold dropping over 9%, Mixue Group down over 7.7%, and Mao Ge Ping down over 6.6% [3]. - Despite the pullback, the valuations of these "new consumption stocks" remain significantly higher than their A-share counterparts, with Lao Pu Gold's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reaching 107.9 times, far exceeding A-share competitors [2][9]. - As of June 4, Lao Pu Gold's market capitalization was HKD 171.6 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 315%, while Pop Mart and Mixue Group saw increases of 175.53% and 112.24%, respectively [3][9]. Group 2: Valuation Discrepancies - The high valuations of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" are attributed to several factors, including concentrated shareholding, which creates a natural "scarcity effect" [14][15]. - Lao Pu Gold's major shareholders control 92.99% of the company's shares, while Mixue Group's founders hold over 80% [15]. - The valuation premium for these companies is also supported by their strong performance in the young consumer market, focusing on emotional value and innovative marketing strategies [15][16]. Group 3: Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the performance of Hong Kong's new consumption leaders could influence A-share markets, with the potential for a ripple effect in consumer sectors [12][17]. - The ongoing valuation recovery in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's P/E ratio at approximately 20.17 times, indicates a trend of re-evaluation of assets [16]. - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is seen as a potential leader, with the possibility of expanding into A-share markets, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [17].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Mixue Group (02097) rose over 7%, reaching a new high, with Daiwa raising its target price to HKD 608, optimistic about same-store sales growth and store opening speed [1] - Lianlian Digital (02598) increased nearly 10% following the official enactment of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong [1] - Automotive stocks collectively declined, with Li Auto-W, Great Wall Motors, and GAC Group all dropping over 2%, as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers opposed "involution-style" price wars [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (02005) fell over 7% after reporting a 36.9% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 59.5% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1, with expectations of a 45%-60% decline in profit for the first half of the year due to demand drop and intensified competition [1] - Solar energy stocks dropped across the board, with New Special Energy, Xinyi Energy, Fuyao Glass, and Xinyi Solar all declining over 4%, as the anticipated "531" rush in May did not materialize following the April rush [1] - Chinese property stocks fell collectively in early trading, with R&F Properties, Sunac China, New City Development, and Agile Group all dropping over 4%, as data showed a 10.8% year-on-year decline in sales for the top 100 real estate companies from January to May, with a 17.3% drop in May alone [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) rose nearly 5% after being included in the CSI 300 Index, becoming the first local financial institution from Chongqing to be included, with a 6.25% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 [2] - Baker Hughes (02149) increased over 8%, reaching a new high after completing a placement of 3 million new H-shares, raising approximately HKD 117 million [2] - Giant Bio (02367) fell over 4% amid ongoing controversies regarding its product components, with the company stating it received an apology from the relevant testing agency and will pursue accountability for the rumors [2] - Chip stocks declined across the board, with Hua Hong Semiconductor, Jingmen Semiconductor, SMIC, and Shanghai Fudan all dropping over 2%, influenced by fluctuating U.S. policies and a decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [2] - Beike-W (02423) dropped nearly 6% as Huaxi Securities reported a significant slowdown in second-hand housing transaction growth, with a mere 8% year-on-year increase in 15 cities for the first 29 days of May, the lowest since October of the previous year [2] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Highlights - AstraZeneca (AZN.US) rose over 2% after its cancer drug Imfinzi received EU approval for specific muscle-invasive bladder cancer treatments [3] - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) increased over 2.4% after announcing the completion of approximately USD 2.44 billion in financing, planning to use about USD 2.32 billion for Bitcoin reserves, potentially becoming one of the largest Bitcoin holders among U.S. public companies [3] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) fell over 2.92% after the CEO announced plans to sell up to 6 million shares by the end of 2025 [3] - Palantir (PLTR.US) rose over 7.73% as reports indicated the Trump administration relies on its technology for inter-agency data sharing, with over USD 113 million in government contracts since Trump took office [3] - Costco (COST.US) increased over 3.12% after reporting Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue of USD 63.2 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, and EPS of USD 4.28, demonstrating its scale advantage and member loyalty [3]

与自营模式占主导的奈雪的茶（02150.HK）形成鲜明对比，当前资本竞逐的新贵阵营中，无论是主打 极致性价比的蜜雪集团（02097.HK），还是定位中高端市场的霸王茶姬（CHA.US），都不约而同选择 了轻资产运营路径——以加盟连锁模式快速攻城略地。 古茗（01364.HK）、沪上阿姨（02589.HK）、茶百道（02555.HK）也无一例外主要采用加盟模式扩张 门店网络。 需要注意的是，这些加盟品牌连锁运营商，却并非以加盟费作为主要收入，而是赚取向加盟商供应产品 原料和设备的收入。 该模式有别于海外快餐连锁品牌如麦当劳（MCD.US）等的二房东;模式，后者的收入主要来自传统加 盟餐厅的租金、基于销售额一定比例的特许权使用费（含最低租金支付额）以及初始费用。 以麦当劳为例，其2024年的收入当中，有54%来自加盟餐厅的租金和特许权使用费等。 根据其2024年业绩计算，蜜雪、古茗、沪上、茶百道、霸王茶姬五家上市茶饮股，商品及设备销售收入 占总收入的比重分别为97.50%、79.94%、80.14%、94.60%和86.97%，其余的小部分则来自加盟和相关 服务、直营门店销售及其他。 传统的二房东;模式，就算加盟 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights a strong rebound in the domestic tea beverage industry, with an upward revision of the target price from 539 HKD to 608 HKD [1] - The report reflects a higher forecast for same-store sales growth due to increased competition from the latest delivery platforms and a rapid pace of new store openings [1] Group 2 - The earnings per share forecast has been adjusted upward by 5-6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth and market leadership of Mixue Group in the ready-to-drink tea industry, projecting significant revenue and profit increases through 2024 [1] - Mixue Group, founded in 1997, focuses on high-cost performance products priced between 2-8 yuan, and has expanded nationwide since 2015, aiming for 46,479 stores globally by the end of 2024 [1] - The company expects revenue of 24.83 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22.3% increase, and a net profit of 4.44 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.4% growth [1] Group 2 - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately 310.9 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 19.7% from 2023 to 2028 [1] - Mixue holds a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea sector, leading the industry, while the top five companies account for 49% of the market [1] - The company’s revenue composition in 2024 is expected to be 94.5% from product sales, 3.0% from equipment sales, and 2.5% from franchise services, with product sales being the main revenue driver [1] Group 3 - The growth formula for Mixue includes single-store revenue, store scale, and supply chain efficiency, with projected single-store GMV of 1.454 million yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 4.8% [2] - The company anticipates net store additions of 7,700, 8,855, and 8,930 for the years 2025 to 2027, driven by domestic expansion and international growth [2] - Supply chain improvements are expected to lead to stable gross margin increases, projected at 32.5%, 32.6%, and 32.7% from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 4 - Mixue Group aims to reach a store count of 100,000 by 2030, with significant contributions from domestic and international expansions [3] - Revenue and net profit projections for 2030 are estimated at 64.5 billion yuan and 11.9 billion yuan, respectively, under optimistic assumptions [3] - The company is also focusing on the commercialization of its "Xue Wang" IP, indicating potential growth beyond its core ready-to-drink tea business [3]

2025.05. 28 本文字数：2252，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：新消费迎来港股IPO热潮 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 上海市区某处泡泡玛特抽盒机 图片来源：第一财经记者齐琦拍摄 业内普遍认为，资金开始押注消费赛道，但在同质化竞争加剧的背景下，市场不禁发问：下一个"泡 泡玛特"或"蜜雪冰城"会否诞生？失去先发优势的消费股又该如何突围？ 新消费"角逐"港股市场 在政策支持、流动性改善与估值修复的三重驱动下，新消费企业掀起赴港上市热潮。 据Wind统计，截至5月28日，年内排队港股IPO的企业159家（申请状态为处理中、聆讯通过），其 中消费类企业25家，占比约16%。 例如潮玩盲盒行业的卡游、52TOYS，茶饮赛道有八马茶业，黄金珠宝饰品领域有周六福、铜师傅， 食品领域更加集中，包括牧原食品股份、三只松鼠、溜溜果园等。 "情绪消费"浪潮下，盲盒、潮玩、医美、新茶饮等新消费势力正重塑商业格局，港股市场悄然成为现 象级品牌的资本主场。 值得关注的是，今年新消费股在二级市场上的火热表现离不开港股市场的大幅回暖。南向资金持续涌 入，为港股市场注入流动性。据Wind统计，2025年以来南向资金净流入额达到6369.1 ...

新消费迎来港股IPO热潮 在政策支持、流动性改善与估值修复的三重驱动下，新消费企业掀起赴港上市热潮。 据Wind统计，截至5月28日，年内排队港股IPO的企业159家（申请状态为处理中、聆讯通过），其中消费类企业25家，占比约16%。 例如潮玩盲盒行业的卡游、52TOYS，茶饮赛道有八马茶业，黄金珠宝饰品领域有周六福、铜师傅，食品领域更加集中，包括牧原食品股份、三只松鼠、溜 溜果园等。 "情绪消费"浪潮下，盲盒、潮玩、医美、新茶饮等新消费势力正重塑商业格局，港股市场悄然成为现象级品牌的资本主场。 2025年以来，港股迎来新消费企业上市潮，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）、老铺黄金（06181.HK）、毛戈平（01318.HK）等多家新消费公司上市，并在市场上有 不错的表现。 供给端也热情高涨，近日潮玩公司乐自天成（下称"52TOYS"）、餐饮品牌绿茶集团接连向港交所递交招股书，老乡鸡、八马茶业、鸣鸣很忙等企业亦在排 队序列中。 二级市场上，中证港股通消费主题指数年内涨幅超20%，新消费板块继续逆势上涨，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价续创历史新高，总市值一度突破3100亿港 元，5月以来的累计涨幅达11.76%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with notable declines in popular consumer stocks like Pop Mart and Mixue Group, despite their recent highs and overall market interest in the new consumption sector [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Pop Mart - Pop Mart's stock price reached a historical high of 235 HKD, with a total market capitalization exceeding 300 billion HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 160% [2][4]. - Following the peak, Pop Mart's stock saw a significant drop of over 7%, attributed to high market enthusiasm and profit-taking rather than any negative fundamental changes [4]. - The trading volume surged, with 27.2 billion HKD traded in the morning session, nearing the previous day's total of 28.4 billion HKD [4]. Group 2: Mixue Group - Mixue Group also faced a decline of over 6% after a nearly 10% increase the previous day, reaching a historical high [5][7]. - The stock was listed at 202.5 HKD per share, with a peak price of 579 HKD, marking a 186.6% increase from the IPO price [5]. - Daiwa raised its target price for Mixue Group from 539 HKD to 608 HKD, citing its unique economies of scale and strong market position, with same-store sales growth expected to exceed 10% in April [7]. Group 3: Market Trends - Despite the declines in Pop Mart and Mixue Group, the overall consumer sector in the Hong Kong stock market remains vibrant, with several established consumer stocks experiencing gains [8]. - Analysts suggest a "high-low switch" phenomenon, indicating a shift in investor focus towards quality companies as new consumer and technology firms enter the market [10]. - The market is witnessing a structural change, with new consumption, technology, and biomedicine sectors increasingly dominating the market capitalization, now accounting for over half of the Hong Kong stock market [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as the leading player in the affordable tea beverage market, with a focus on expansion into lower-tier cities and international markets [15] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to enhance profitability and maintain growth momentum [14][39] - The projected revenue and net profit for 2024 are 24.83 billion RMB and 4.44 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 41.4% [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1997, the company has grown to become the largest beverage chain globally, with over 46,479 stores expected by the end of 2024 [1][15] - The company has a strong focus on high-cost performance products priced between 2-8 RMB [21] Market Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately 310.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 19.7% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - The company holds a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea segment, leading the competition [2] Growth Drivers - The growth formula is defined as store revenue multiplied by store count and supply chain efficiency [3] - Expected single-store revenue growth is projected at 145.4K, 149.3K, and 152.7K RMB for 2025-2027, with a stable cost-sharing model [3] - The company plans to increase its store count significantly, with net additions of 7,700, 8,855, and 8,930 stores from 2025 to 2027 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 43.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 24.2% [5] - Net profit is projected to increase from 3.14 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.83 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a target price of 603.30 - 635.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 14.3% to 20.3% from the current price [6] - The company is expected to benefit from valuation premiums typical for high-growth beverage brands [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as the leading player in the affordable tea beverage market, with a focus on expansion into lower-tier cities and international markets [15] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to enhance profitability and maintain growth momentum [14][39] - The projected revenue and net profit for 2024 are 24.83 billion RMB and 4.44 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 41.4% [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1997, the company has grown to become the largest beverage chain globally, with over 46,479 stores expected by the end of 2024 [1][15] - The company has a strong focus on high-cost performance products priced between 2-8 RMB [21] Market Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately 310.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 19.7% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - The company holds a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea segment, leading the competition [2] Growth Drivers - The growth formula is defined as store revenue multiplied by store count and supply chain efficiency [3] - Expected single-store revenue growth is projected at 4.8% for 2025, with a steady cost-sharing model [3] - The company plans to increase its store count significantly, with net additions of 7,700 to 8,930 stores from 2025 to 2027 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 43.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 24.2% [5] - Net profit is projected to increase from 3.14 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.83 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [5] Investment Strategy - The company plans to utilize IPO proceeds to expand production capacity, enhance brand IP, and invest in digital transformation [42] - The target price for 2025 is set between 603.30 and 635.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 14.3% to 20.3% from the current price [6][39]