高盛发布研报称，蜜雪集团(02097)管理层于中期业绩会议中透露，未来将专注于巩固中国市场领导地 位，并透过进一步开店及海外扩张，增强供应链及系统营运能力，强化消费者对"雪王"IP的认知，以推 动长期可持续增长。该行认为，集团门店网络调整有助改善整体经营表现，目前已见到正面效果，看好 公司正扩张至东盟及其他国家的空白市场，维持"买入"评级，并将2025至2027年盈利预测上调3%、1% 及1%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，蜜雪集团(02097)管理层于中期业绩会议中透露，未来将专注于巩 固中国市场领导地位，并透过进一步开店及海外扩张，增强供应链及系统营运能力，强化消费者对"雪 王"IP的认知，以推动长期可持续增长。该行认为，集团门店网络调整有助改善整体经营表现，目前已 见到正面效果，看好公司正扩张至东盟及其他国家的空白市场，维持"买入"评级，并将2025至2027年盈 利预测上调3%、1%及1%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, the company achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with a strong outlook for market share enhancement [5][7] - The company recorded a revenue of 14.875 billion RMB in 2025H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.718 billion RMB, up 44.1% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its domestic store network while optimizing overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 20.302 billion RMB, 2024: 24.829 billion RMB, 2025E: 30.443 billion RMB, 2026E: 36.691 billion RMB, 2027E: 42.410 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 49.55%, 22.29%, 22.61%, 20.52%, and 15.59% [6] - The net profit forecasts are: 2023: 3.137 billion RMB, 2024: 4.436 billion RMB, 2025E: 5.425 billion RMB, 2026E: 6.586 billion RMB, 2027E: 7.670 billion RMB, with growth rates of 57.13%, 41.41%, 22.28%, 21.40%, and 16.46% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2025H1 was 31.64%, with a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Expansion - As of 2025H1, the company had a total of 53,014 stores, with 52,996 being franchise stores, and a net increase of 6,697 stores in mainland China since the beginning of the year [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in the domestic market while strategically optimizing its operations in overseas markets like Indonesia and Vietnam [7] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.27% in 2025H1 [7] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are 36.23 for 2023, 31.24 for 2024, 31.24 for 2025E, 25.73 for 2026E, and 22.09 for 2027E [6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance report of Mixue Group shows significant revenue and profit growth, yet the stock price declined sharply, indicating market concerns despite positive financial results [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Mixue Group reported revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.69 billion yuan, up 43.1% year-on-year [1] - In comparison, competitor Gu Ming achieved revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, a remarkable 121.5% growth [1] - Hu Shang Ayi's revenue grew by 9.7% to 1.82 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 20.9% to 200 million yuan, indicating a focus on cost control [1] Market Dynamics - The introduction of delivery subsidies has revitalized the tea beverage market, with major platforms like JD, Ele.me, and Meituan engaging in aggressive subsidy wars [2] - Mixue Group, as a leading player, benefits directly from these subsidies, which enhance sales during the high-demand summer season [2] - Gu Ming's CEO noted that lower-priced brands like Mixue benefit more from these subsidies, which could impact the long-term profitability of the tea beverage sector [2][3] Store Expansion and Challenges - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group had 4,733 overseas stores, a decrease of 162 stores from the beginning of the year, indicating challenges in international expansion [3][5] - The company reported a total of 53,014 stores, with 48,281 in mainland China, reflecting a net increase of only 1,800 stores, primarily driven by the expansion of its coffee sub-brand, Lucky Coffee [4] - Concerns arise regarding the saturation of the domestic market and the declining number of overseas stores, leading to investor skepticism about future growth [5]

坚持全产业链效率优化，与加盟商"利益与共"以保障长期增长，下半年费用率有望维持稳定态势 公司持续强化供应链布局，H1海南新生产基地如期投产、产能规模仅次于河南基地。公司计划将产业 链进一步延伸至上游，围绕重点农产品布局工厂并提升合作种植基地标准化水平。展望下半年，公司将 持续降本增效，同时让利消费者和加盟商，实现规模经济共享，综合考虑资源投入和规模效应带来的费 用摊薄，该行预计下半年费用率仍有望保持稳定态势。 关注海外存量门店优化运营效果 在东南亚市场，门店日均营业额已实现同比正增长，同时积极调整和优化存量门店，印尼、越南市场出 现净关店，此外，公司同步优化门店布局，搬迁后的门店单店日销+50%;在马来和泰国，门店数量保持 稳健增长。公司预计用1-2年优化东南亚供应链，应对口味差异、法规限制、库存调配等问题。同时， 公司展现区域拓展新突破，中亚已签约十余家待开门店，美洲筹备美/墨/巴首店。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩略超出该行预期 公司H1营收同比+39.3%至148.7亿元，归母净利润同比+42.9%至26.9亿元，归母净利润率同比+0.5ppt至 18.1%。业绩略超出该行预期，主因单店收入增速超预 ...

该行估计1H25同店收入同比提升约13%，或主要受外卖补贴带动。公司维持积极拓店节奏，计划未来 继续渗透空白点位(如旅游景区、高速服务区、产业园区等)和下沉乡镇市场。幸运咖随单店模型打磨取 得一定成效，果咖热销带动产品力提升(多款果咖6-7月销量进入TOP5)，今年加码开店扶持政策(7月针 对老加盟商推出约5万元开店补贴、8月针对新加盟商推出约3.5万元开店补贴)并加快拓店步伐，截至8 月2日全国签约门店已达7,300家。 坚持全产业链效率优化，与加盟商"利益与共"以保障长期增长，下半年费用率有望维持稳定态势 中金发布研报称，蜜雪集团(02097)明年仍有望凭借稳健拓店及对盈利能力较强掌控度实现双位数业绩 增长。该行上调25-26年归母净利润预测9%/4%至59.3/67.4亿元。当前股价对应25-26年27/23x P/E。维持 跑赢行业评级。考虑今年外卖补贴带来明年高基数压力，维持目标价555港元，对应25/26年33/28x P/E，上行空间21%。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩略超出该行预期 公司H1营收同比+39.3%至148.7亿元，归母净利润同比+42.9%至26.9亿元，归母净利润率同比+ ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 27 日公司披露 2025 年中报，上半年实现营收 148.75 亿元，同比增长 39.3%；实现归母净利润 26.93 亿元，同比增长 42.9%。 经营分析 1）收入超预期，成本费用管控良好下，利润亦超预期。分业务来 看，商品和设备销售/加盟及相关服务收入 144.95/3.80 亿元， yoy+39.6%/+29.8%，上半年茶饮咖啡为外卖大战受益赛道，杯量 增长拉动原料收入增长，开店加速亦带动服务相关收入增加。成 本费用端来看，毛利率 31.6%，yoy-0.2pct 相对稳定；销售费用 率 6.1%，同比持平；管理费用率 2.9%，yoy+0.3pct；研发费用率 0.3%，yoy-0.1pct，公司成本费用端管控良好。 2）开店加速，全球门店突破 5.3 万家，加盟商数量稳健增长。25H1 净增门店 6535 家（其中，国内净增 6697 家，海外净减少 162 家）。 截至 25H1 末门店数达到 53014 家，其中国内/海外 48281/4733 家。 国内门店分布看，截止 25H1 一线/新一线/二线/三线及以下城市 门店分别占比 4.9%/18.4%/19 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 蜜雪集团（02097.HK） 优于大市 蜜雪冰城下沉能力再验证，咖啡副牌进入放量期 2025H1 归母净利润同增 43%。公司实现收入 148.7 亿元/+39.3%；实现归母 净利润 26.9 亿元/+42.9%。分业务看，商品销售收入 138.4 亿元/+39.5%， 收入占比 93.1%/+0.1pct；设备销售收入 6.5 亿元/+42.3%，收入占比为 4.4%/+0.1pct；加盟服务收入 3.8 亿元/+29.8%，收入占比为 2.6%/-0.2pct。 东南亚聚焦经营质量提升，国内门店持续下沉。2025年中期末门店数达53014 家，加盟/直营店分别为 52996/18 家。2025H1，公司加盟店新增 7721 家、 关店 1187 家、净增 6534 家；直营店净关店 3 家。分品牌看，参考幸运咖官 网数据，期内预计蜜雪/幸运咖分别净增约 5000 家/1500 家。 分地理区域看，内地/内地以外门店数分别为 48281/4733 家，较年初分别净 增 6697 家/净关 162 家，占比分别 91.1%/8.9%，印尼/越南门店数减少，主 因公司 ...

Summary of Mixue Group (2097.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mixue Group - **Ticker**: 2097.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$174.8 billion / $22.4 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$156.0 billion / $20.0 billion - **Industry**: Freshly-made drink (FMD) sector in China and globally Key Points from the Earnings Call 1. Business Performance and Strategy - Mixue aims to solidify its leadership in the China market through increased store penetration and overseas expansion, enhancing supply chain operations, and strengthening brand awareness of Snow King IP for sustainable growth [1][16][28] - The company has seen a boost in sales volume due to food delivery subsidies in 1H25, which positively impacted store-level profitability, although management expects these subsidies to normalize [1][19] - The Lucky Cup brand is set for rapid expansion, with plans to enhance product offerings and accelerate nationwide growth in the second half of the year [1][21] 2. Overseas Market Adjustments - The decline in overseas store count in 1H25 was attributed to operational adjustments in Vietnam and Indonesia, but per store sales showed positive growth [1][23] - Expansion into new markets, including Kazakhstan and various countries in the Americas, is underway, with a focus on improving store quality and operations [1][21][23] 3. Financial Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by an average of 2%, reflecting solid growth in the China business and positive signs from overseas adjustments [2][27] - The company maintains a long-term gross profit margin target of approximately 30%, with diversified raw material sourcing helping to mitigate price risks [1][25] 4. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Mixue is enhancing its supply chain infrastructure and digitalization efforts to support growth, with five major domestic production bases established [1][21][24] - The company plans to locally source some raw materials in overseas markets to improve supply chain efficiency [1][24] 5. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Mixue is positioned as the largest FMD company in China and globally by store count, with a strong brand and value-for-money offerings [28] - The competitive landscape in the freshly ground coffee market is still evolving, with Mixue leveraging its supply chain for differentiated advantages [22] 6. Risks and Challenges - Key risks identified include store network management, competition, food cost inflation, food safety, and challenges in overseas expansion [28][30] 7. Financial Metrics and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to grow from Rmb 24,828.9 million in 2024 to Rmb 44,104.8 million by 2027 [6][14] - **EBITDA Growth**: Projected to increase from Rmb 5,920.9 million in 2024 to Rmb 10,252.5 million by 2027 [6][14] - **EPS Growth**: Expected to rise from Rmb 11.84 in 2024 to Rmb 20.59 by 2027 [6][14] 8. Investment Rating - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$570, reflecting a potential upside of 23.8% from the current price of HK$460.40 [1][16][30] Conclusion Mixue Group is strategically positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand strength. The company faces challenges but has a solid plan to navigate them while capitalizing on its market leadership in the freshly-made drink sector.

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 蜜雪集团（02097.HK） 2025年中期业绩点评：营收利润增速超预期， 全球达 5.3 万店 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20,302 | 24,829 | 32,141 | 35,602 | 39,635 | | 同比(%) | 49.55 | 22.29 | 29.45 | 10.77 | 11.33 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,137 | 4,437 | 5,847 | 6,524 | 7,296 | | 同比(%) | 57.13 | 41.41 | 31.79 | 11.58 | 11.83 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 8.26 | 11.69 | 15.40 | 17.18 | 19.22 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 50.86 | 35.97 | 27.29 | 24.46 | 21.87 | ...