现制饮品国民品牌，高质平价、全球扩张 蜜雪集团(2097) 蜜雪集团首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 蜜雪集团是国内现制饮品龙头，高质平价定位+供应链先发优势，规模效应筑壁垒。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 20,302 | 24,829 | 33,748 | 38,059 | 42,393 | | (+/-)% | 49.6% | 22.3% | 35.9% | 12.8% | 11.4% | | 毛利润 | 5,999 | 8,060 | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Mixue Group [5][10]. Core Insights - Mixue Group is positioned as a leading domestic fresh beverage brand, emphasizing high quality at affordable prices, with a competitive edge in supply chain management and scale effects [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 33.75 billion, RMB 38.06 billion, and RMB 42.39 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 36%, 13%, and 11% respectively [10][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 5.93 billion, RMB 6.78 billion, and RMB 7.54 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 14%, and 11% [10][16]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB): - 2023: 20,302 - 2024: 24,829 - 2025E: 33,748 - 2026E: 38,059 - 2027E: 42,393 - Net profit (in million RMB): - 2023: 3,137 - 2024: 4,437 - 2025E: 5,934 - 2026E: 6,779 - 2027E: 7,535 - Projected PE ratios: - 2025E: 24.51 - 2026E: 21.45 - 2027E: 19.30 [4][10][16]. Business Model and Competitive Advantages - Mixue Group operates under a franchise model with a focus on high-density store networks, which enhances consumer reach and operational efficiency [10][22]. - The company has established a robust supply chain with high self-sourcing rates, allowing for cost advantages and quality control [10][22]. - The brand has a strong market presence in the affordable beverage segment, with Mixue Ice City leading in market share [10][22]. Market Expansion Potential - The domestic market for fresh beverages is projected to grow significantly, with an increase in consumer demand for fresh and diverse flavors [10][22]. - Mixue Group has identified potential for opening 60,000 to 70,000 stores domestically and over 40,000 stores internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia [10][22][14]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings by entering the fresh beer market through the acquisition of the brand "Fulu Family" [10][22]. Valuation - The target price for Mixue Group is set at HKD 549.47, based on a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately HKD 208.8 billion [10][20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry in China showed signs of recovery in 2025, with a total revenue of 57,982 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% and accounting for 11.6% of total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2022, the restaurant revenue was 43,941 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3%. The revenue rebounded to 52,890 billion yuan in 2023, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 20.4%. In 2024, the revenue reached 55,718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - The overall growth of the restaurant market in 2025 exhibited a pattern of "stable growth, structural optimization, and emerging highlights," with a noticeable trend of stabilization in the latter half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The year 2025 saw active performance in new business formats and categories, with a clear trend towards health and seasonality. Beverage sectors like tea and coffee accelerated innovation and capital investment, expanding towards health and integration [4]. - Restaurant companies launched seasonal products themed around "summer coolness" and "autumn and winter warmth," with hot pot and barbecue categories continuing to gain popularity amid consumer upgrades [4]. Group 3: Capital Market Activity - 2025 marked a concentrated period for restaurant industry listings, primarily on the Hong Kong stock market. Notable new tea brands such as Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group went public, followed by several other brands like Ba Wang Cha Ji and Green Tea Group [5]. - The China Cuisine Association noted that companies actively sought innovation and diversification through "restaurant+" models, enhancing product development, holiday marketing, and cultural integration [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Federation of Chinese Catering recently predicted trends in the restaurant industry, emphasizing the survival of small, specialized, and aesthetically pleasing establishments. Key characteristics of new consumption include fresh, traceable ingredients with fewer processing steps [5]. - There is an increasing demand for standardization, professionalism, technical skills, and innovation in the restaurant industry, alongside a diversification of consumption structures and greater use of automated kitchen equipment [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese catering market in 2025 is characterized by "stable growth, structural optimization, and frequent highlights" amidst fluctuations [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the national catering revenue reached 57,982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, accounting for 11.6% of total retail sales of consumer goods, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The catering revenue in 2022 was 43,941 billion yuan, showing a decline of 6.3%. In 2023, the revenue rebounded to 52,890 billion yuan, marking a 20.4% increase. In 2024, it further increased to 55,718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.3% [2] - The overall growth rate of the catering market in 2025 showed a trend of high growth followed by stabilization, with the growth rate gradually leveling off in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - New business formats and product categories are actively emerging in 2025, with clear trends towards health and seasonality. Beverage sectors like tea and coffee are accelerating innovation and capital investment, expanding towards health and integration [2] - Catering enterprises are launching seasonal themed products such as "summer cool" and "autumn and winter warm food," with hot pot and barbecue categories continuing to gain popularity, reflecting a keen grasp of market trends [2] - The year 2025 marks a concentrated period for listings in the Chinese catering industry, with many companies opting for listings on the Hong Kong stock exchange [3] - Companies are proactively innovating and expanding "catering+" multi-scenario approaches, enhancing product development, holiday marketing, and cultural integration [3] - Future trends in the catering industry include the survival of small, specialized, and aesthetically pleasing shops, with an emphasis on fresh, traceable ingredients and fewer processing steps [3]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a rebound, with significant price increases observed in several companies [1] - "沪上阿姨" (02589.HK) saw its stock price rise by over 10% during trading [1] - "泡泡玛特" (09992.HK) increased by 10.2%, while "布鲁可" (00325.HK) rose by more than 7% [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as "古茗" (01364.HK) and "锅圈" (02517.HK) experienced nearly 5% increases in their stock prices [1] - "蜜雪集团" (02097.HK) also saw its stock price rise by over 4% [1]

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant shift from rapid growth to intense competition, with many brands struggling to maintain profitability as the market approaches saturation [2][11][24]. Industry Overview - The tea beverage market has seen a surge in the number of listed companies, with brands like Gu Ming, Mi Xue Ice City, and Ba Wang Tea Sister joining the ranks, bringing the total to six publicly traded companies [2]. - Mi Xue Ice City has expanded to an impressive 47,000 global stores, while Gu Ming has become the second tea brand to reach 10,000 stores [2]. - The market growth rate is projected to slow down significantly, with an expected increase of only 6.4% in 2025, compared to over 20% in previous years [11]. Market Dynamics - The competition has intensified, leading to a phenomenon where many stores are closing or struggling to find tenants, with rental prices dropping by 30% in some areas without attracting new businesses [10][11]. - The average density of tea beverage stores is high, with one store for every 700 people in the target demographic of 15-35 years old [11]. Financial Performance - Major tea brands have reported substantial revenue growth, with Mi Xue Group achieving a revenue increase of 39.3% to 14.87 billion yuan and Gu Ming's revenue rising by 41.2% to 5.66 billion yuan [15][17]. - Despite overall revenue growth, many franchisees are experiencing declining profit margins due to increased competition and the impact of the delivery service wars [20][21]. Delivery Wars Impact - The fierce competition among delivery platforms has led to significant spending, with approximately 65 billion yuan burned in the third quarter alone, benefiting tea brands through increased order volumes [13][14]. - However, the profitability of individual stores is under pressure, as the shift towards delivery often results in lower profit margins compared to in-store sales [20][21]. Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly adopting a speculative approach, focusing on new brands with the potential for high returns, while established brands are seen as less profitable [24][25]. - The emergence of new brands and trends, such as Thai milk tea, is driving interest among franchisees, who are eager to capitalize on the next big opportunity [27][28]. Consumer Behavior - The delivery wars have changed consumer habits, with a growing preference for ready-to-drink beverages, which may have long-term benefits for the industry [23]. - However, there are concerns that the price sensitivity created by heavy discounting during the delivery wars could persist even after subsidies are reduced [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the restaurant industry since the beginning of 2023 is driven by demand and paced by supply, with leading tea brands showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, while Western fast food and casual dining are expected to stabilize in Q2 and Q3 2025 respectively [1][2]. Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is experiencing a survival of the fittest, with top brands becoming stronger. The recovery pace in the tea segment is ahead of Western fast food and casual dining by about 1 to 2 quarters [2]. - As of November 2025, the overall restaurant sector is seeing a net closure of stores, while specific segments like coffee, self-service, light meals, and regional cuisines are showing net openings [2]. - Leading brands such as Heytea, Luckin Coffee, KFC, and Haidilao are demonstrating superior net opening speeds, indicating brand resilience [2]. Performance Outlook - Most leading brands are expected to achieve same-store sales stabilization or growth starting in H2 2025, with a normalization of customer traffic anticipated [3]. - The average transaction value (ATV) for many leading brands is stabilizing or increasing, with brands like Haidilao, McDonald's, and Luckin Coffee showing year-on-year increases in ATV as of November 2025 [3]. - The restaurant sector is viewed as a valuation opportunity, with brands like Haidilao and Yum China expected to show strong recovery and shareholder returns [4]. Specific Company Insights - Haidilao is expected to see improved revenue growth in H2 2025 due to enhanced table turnover rates, with a projected dividend yield of around 5% [4]. - Yum China is accelerating its expansion, with expected system sales growth in the mid-single digits and a total shareholder return of approximately $3 billion for 2025-2026 [4]. - Special mention of Teahouse International as a unique player in the Chinese restaurant sector, with significant growth potential and improving profitability [5]. - Green Tea Group is actively expanding into second and third-tier cities, with an anticipated store opening growth rate of about 30% in H2 2025 [5]. - Dashi Co. is also expected to achieve around 25% revenue growth in H2 2025, benefiting from rapid store openings [6]. - The tea segment is highlighted as a key area for growth, with brands like Gu Ming and Mixue Group expected to continue high growth rates due to strong same-store sales and accelerated openings [6].

Summary of the Conference Call for Mixue Group Industry Overview - **Industry**: Tea Beverage Market - **Market Position**: Mixue Group has captured approximately 50% of the domestic tea beverage market, establishing an oligopoly structure and actively expanding into overseas markets, including factory establishment in Brazil and opening its first store in the United States [2][3]. Core Business Model and Competitive Advantages - **Business Model**: Mixue Group operates on a high-quality, low-price model, having introduced affordable yet high-quality products since 2000, which significantly boosted brand recognition [3]. - **Supply Chain Management**: The company has achieved significant competitive advantages through integrated supply chain management, optimizing efficiency from upstream procurement to downstream store management [6]. - **Cost Management**: By self-producing 70% of core raw materials and collaborating with planting bases, Mixue reduces raw material cost volatility and enhances operational efficiency [2][12]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin has rebounded to over 30%, with expectations for stability in the future due to improved capacity utilization and scale expansion [10][11]. - **Store Expansion Goals**: The company aims to reach 65,000 to 75,000 stores domestically and 15,000 or more internationally, with a long-term target of around 100,000 stores, corresponding to a market cap ceiling of 200 billion RMB [4][5][21]. Brand Development and Consumer Engagement - **IP Branding**: The creation of the "Snow King" IP and its promotion through social media has significantly enhanced consumer recognition and loyalty, with approximately 300 million members by 2024 [2][7][16]. - **Market Trends**: The tea beverage industry has maintained over 15% growth, but the oversaturation of stores has led to challenges in achieving profitability for some outlets [17][18]. Challenges and Strategic Responses - **Market Challenges**: In North America, challenges include the immature small store model and changing consumer habits regarding tea beverages. The company is adapting by developing suitable small store models and leveraging its supply chain capabilities [9]. - **Raw Material Price Fluctuations**: Mixue manages raw material price volatility through phased absorption strategies, maintaining stable gross margins despite market fluctuations [10][11]. Regional Market Insights - **Southeast Asia**: Mixue has established a strong presence in Southeast Asia, with plans to optimize pricing strategies and build a raw material production facility in Indonesia to enhance competitiveness [22]. - **North America**: The company has opened its first store in the U.S. and plans to expand based on consumer data collection, with a potential for 5,000 stores in the Americas [24]. Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to continue growing, particularly in lower-tier cities where operational costs are lower, providing a strong expansion opportunity for Mixue [19][20]. - **Long-term Goals**: The company aims for a total of around 100,000 stores, with a corresponding market cap potential of 200 billion RMB, indicating strong growth prospects if overseas expansion is successful [26].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 蜜雪冰城股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02097 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 150,883,058 | | 0 | | 150,883,058 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 150,883,058 | | 0 | | 150,883,058 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mixue Group, is positioned as a leading player in the global fresh beverage market, focusing on high-quality and affordable products, with a significant store network and strong sales performance in China and globally [1][2]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Mixue Group offers a range of products including fresh fruit drinks, tea, ice cream, and coffee, with an average price of approximately 6 RMB (1 USD) per item [1]. - The company has built a robust supply chain that supports its extensive store network, generating revenue primarily from the sale of materials and equipment needed for beverage production [1][2]. - The brand's positioning as "high-quality and affordable" resonates well with consumers, creating a unique emotional connection through its Snow King IP [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to maintain rapid growth due to its low price point and appeal to a broad consumer base, particularly in lower-tier markets [3]. - The current oversupply in the industry is likely to lead to a trend of eliminating weaker brands, favoring those with strong product and channel capabilities, such as Mixue [3]. - The company anticipates expanding its domestic store count to approximately 70,000 and establishing 10,000 to 15,000 stores in Southeast Asia, with potential growth in the Americas as well [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Mixue Group is projected to achieve net profits of 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.30 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% respectively [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 24, 21, and 19 for the same period, indicating a strong competitive position in profitability [4].