海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 食品饮料行业 ＃02319 .HK ＃蒙dy牛Com乳pa业ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） dyStockco ＃inve 买stSu 入ggest ion＃ ( i维nv＃ e持stS ） d e＃ 新消 费趋 势引领产＃品tit创le＃新 ，营收稳健增长 uggesti onC han ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 28日 ge＃ 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 司 ⚫ 营收稳健增长。2023年，公司营收为986.24亿元，同比增长6.5%，增速 日期 2024.03.28 跟 同比+1.5pcts。其中液态奶营收820.71亿元，同比增长4.9%，占比83.2%， 收盘价（港元） 16.80 同比-1.3pcts。冰淇淋营收60.26亿元，同比增长6.6%，占比6.1%，同比 踪 总股本（亿股） 39.35 +0.01pcts。奶粉营收38.02亿元，同比减少1.6%，占比3.9%，同比-0.3pcts。 报 总市值（亿港元） 661.13 奶酪营收为43.57亿元，占比4.4%，同比+3.0pct ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.62, based on a current price of HKD 17.32 [1]. Core Views - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of RMB 98.62 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an operating profit of RMB 6.17 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.489 per share, with a payout ratio of 40% for the year [2]. - The liquid milk segment showed steady growth, with revenue of RMB 82.1 billion (+4.9%), while ice cream and cheese segments saw significant increases in revenue, with cheese revenue soaring by 230% due to the consolidation of Miaokelando [2]. - The decline in raw milk prices has improved profit margins, with a gross margin of 37.2%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit margin increased to 6.3%, a rise of 0.4 percentage points [2]. - The new president, Gao Fei, is expected to lead the company towards continued improvement in profitability, supported by a favorable raw milk price environment and product structure optimization [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Mengniu Dairy achieved a total revenue of RMB 98.62 billion, with a growth rate of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.81 billion, reflecting a decline of 9.31% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 1.22 [3][11]. - Forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of RMB 5.50 billion, RMB 6.00 billion, and RMB 6.52 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.40, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.66 [2][3]. Segment Analysis - Liquid Milk: Revenue is expected to grow at rates of 4%, 3%, and 2.8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by market share expansion and product optimization [7]. - Ice Cream: Anticipated revenue growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026, supported by new consumption scenarios and innovative products [7]. - Cheese: Revenue growth is projected at 18%, 15%, and 12% for the same period, with Miaokelando maintaining a leading market share [7]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 14 times for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 21.62, maintaining the "Buy" rating based on expected improvements in operating profit margins [2][8].

公司研究 | 动态跟踪 蒙牛乳业 02319.HK 液奶稳健增长，持续受益原奶成本下行与 买入（维持） 产品结构升级 股价（2024年04月02日） 17.32港元 目标价格 25.42港元 52周最高价/最低价 33.41/16港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 393,529/393,529 H股市值（百万港币） 68,159 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 核心业绩表现：公司近期发布2023年业绩公告，2023年实现营收986.24亿元 报告发布日期 2024年04月03日 （yoy+6.5%），实现归母净利润48.09亿元（yoy-9.3%）。2023年，公司毛利率 为37.2%（yoy+1.85pct），主要系原奶价格同比下降，产品结构同比提升。公司销 1周 1月 3月 12月 售费用率为25.5%（yoy+1.4pct），主要由于线下销售推广执行活动增加所致。 绝对表现% -8.65 -11.9 -12.79 -45.43 2023年公司应占联营公司业绩为0.91亿元，同比-78%。 相对表现% -10.53 -13.96 -13.64 -28.43 ⚫ 液态奶市场份额持续扩张，夯实高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.1, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 17.1 [6][15]. Core Insights - Mengniu's revenue growth faces challenges due to industry demand slowdown, oversupply of raw milk, and intensified competition. Recent management changes may lead to short-term market sentiment fluctuations, but the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities in the liquid milk sector support long-term growth potential [5][6]. - The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% for the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2023 to 2026, driven by continuous margin expansion [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 92,593 million - 2023: RMB 98,624 million (YoY growth of 6.5%) - 2024: RMB 100,836 million (YoY growth of 2.2%) - 2025: RMB 105,095 million (YoY growth of 4.2%) - 2026: RMB 109,810 million (YoY growth of 4.5%) [10][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 5,303 million - 2023: RMB 4,809 million (YoY decline of 9.3%) - 2024: RMB 5,467 million (YoY growth of 13.7%) - 2025: RMB 6,291 million (YoY growth of 15.1%) - 2026: RMB 7,163 million (YoY growth of 13.9%) [10][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 35.3% in 2022 to 38.0% by 2026 - Operating Margin: Expected to increase from 5.9% in 2022 to 7.3% by 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 15.1% in 2022 to 13.3% by 2026 [10][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth areas identified for 2024 include: - Continued strong growth for the premium product "Te Long Su" - Positive expansion trends in ice cream sales overseas - Significant revenue growth for Bellamy's, with over 40% YoY increase in 2023 - Recovery in low-temperature yogurt sales after a significant decline - Fresh milk expected to contribute to revenue growth above the company average [5][10].

2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 蒙牛乳业（2319.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 平稳收官，提高分红 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 蒙牛2023年收入986亿/+6.5%，经营利润61亿/+6.3%，经营利润率同比提升0.4pct， 完成年初目标。净利润48.8亿/-5.7%。公司变更总裁，但是表明战略目标不变，同 目标价格： 27.2 元 时提高了派息率至40%。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别为53.9/59/63亿人民币， 现价(2024-3-28)： 16.8港元 对应EPS为1.47/1.61/1.73港元。维持“买入”评级，目标价为27.2港元，较当 前股价有62%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 液态奶平稳增长，结构持续升级。23年液态奶收入820亿/+4.9%，经营利润61亿， 流通市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 利润率7.5%/+0.2pct。特仑苏份额持续提升，有机系列双位数增长，品类结构持续 总股本(百万股) 3,935.29 优化。常温酸奶仍然承压，乳饮料基本持平。低温酸奶实现逆势增长，继续蝉联市 流通股本(百万股) 3,935.29 ...

2024年3月29日 公司研究 顺利收官，经营稳健 ——蒙牛乳业（2319.HK）2023 年年报点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：16.80港元 事件：蒙牛乳业发布2023年年报，2023年全年实现营业收入986.24亿元，同 比增加6.51%，归母净利润48.09亿元，同比减少9.31%。23H2实现营业收入 475.06亿元，同比增加5.87%，归母净利润17.89亿元，同比增加15.28%。 作者 液态奶业务增势稳健，奶粉业务持续调整。分产品看，2023全年液态奶/冰淇淋 分析师：叶倩瑜 /奶粉/奶酪产品/其他乳制品实现营业收入820.71/60.26/38.02/43.57/23.68亿 执业证书编号：S0930517100003 021-52523657 元，分别同比+4.9%/+6.6%/-1.6%/+229.8%/-32.1%。其中奶酪产品收入同比 yeqianyu@ebscn.com 增速较大，主要系公司于2022年12月将妙可蓝多纳入并表范围。液态奶业务： 分析师：陈彦彤 常温液态奶业务收入增势良好，产品结构持续优化。高端有机系列收入同比实现 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 蒙牛乳业（02319.HK） 2023 年报点评：23 年 OPM 稳健提升，集团 2024 年 03月 27日 元老履新 CEO 证券分析师 孙瑜 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 股价走势 营业总收入（百万元） 92,593 98,624 101,142 105,553 110,556 同比 5.05% 6.51% 2.55% 4.36% 4.74% 蒙牛乳业 恒生指数 归母净利润（百万元） 5,303 4,809 5,638 6,131 6,605 3% -3% -9% 同比 5.52% -9.31% 17.23% 8.74% 7.74% -15% -21% EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 1.35 1.22 1.43 1.56 1.68 -27% -33% -39% P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 11.71 12.91 11.01 10.13 9.40 -- 54 15 %% [关Ta键bl词e_：Ta#g业] ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's liquid milk segment shows steady growth, with fresh milk maintaining a strong market position [3] - The acquisition of Miaokelanduo significantly boosted the cheese business revenue [3] - Gross margin continues to improve due to lower raw milk prices and product structure upgrades [3] - The company's channel advantages and rapid new product iterations are expected to further enhance market share [4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached 990.95 billion yuan, a 6.62% year-on-year increase [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.809 billion yuan, a 9.31% year-on-year decrease [3] - Gross margin for 2023 was 37.15%, up 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expenses increased, with the sales expense ratio rising to 25.54%, up 1.41 percentage points [3] Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue in 2023 was 82.071 billion yuan, a 4.86% year-on-year increase [3] - Cheese business revenue surged by 229.81% to 4.357 billion yuan, mainly due to the Miaokelanduo acquisition [3] - Ice cream and milk powder segments showed mixed performance, with ice cream revenue up 6.62% and milk powder down 1.56% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.436 billion, 5.983 billion, and 6.483 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.04%, 10.05%, and 8.36% [4] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times, respectively [4] Market Position - The company's fresh milk business outperformed the industry, with the "Daily Fresh" brand maintaining its leading position in the high-end fresh milk market [4] - The company's organic series achieved double-digit growth, and the white milk product structure continued to upgrade [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with the target price currently under review [1][3][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue and net profit growth of 5.9% and 15.3% year-on-year for 2H23, respectively. Excluding the impact of the merger with Miaokelando, the comparable revenue growth for the year was 2.9% [1]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 30% to 40%, indicating a positive outlook on cash flow and profitability [1]. - The company aims for revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits for 2024, with an operational profit margin improvement target of 30-50 basis points [1]. - Despite a slowdown in industry growth, the company is focusing on high-quality development and optimizing its product mix, particularly in high-end liquid milk and cheese segments [1]. Financial Summary - For FY23E, the company expects sales revenue of RMB 99,315 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. The net profit is projected to be RMB 5,883.2 million, reflecting a 10.9% increase [2][9]. - The company anticipates a continued improvement in gross margin, with a forecasted gross profit of RMB 36,151 million for FY23E, translating to a gross margin of 36.4% [9][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23E is estimated at RMB 1.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 [2][9]. Business Strategy - The company has identified that a price-for-volume strategy is not suitable for current development, emphasizing the importance of maintaining quality [1]. - The company plans to enhance its digital marketing and channel strategies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, particularly in the cheese segment [1]. - The company is cautious about expanding overseas due to geopolitical risks, despite strong growth in its Southeast Asian ice cream business [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - Despite facing market headwinds, Mengniu Dairy has shown resilience with a 6.5% year-on-year sales growth in 2023, although net profit decreased by 9.3% to RMB 4.809 billion, falling short of consensus expectations by 14% [1][2]. - The company has experienced an increase in gross margin by 185 basis points to 37.2% due to lower raw milk costs, which also contributed to a slight increase in operating profit margin [1][2]. - The guidance for 2024 is disappointing, with expected sales growth in the low to mid-single digits, which is below previous expectations of 7.5% [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 98.624 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3][11]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.809 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.1% compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The company anticipates a slight expansion in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points for 2024, while gross margin is expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices [2][11]. Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment, particularly high-end products like "Telunsu" and low-temperature yogurt, has shown strong performance, while ice cream and milk powder segments have faced challenges [1][6]. - Sales growth by category in 2023: liquid milk +5%, ice cream +7%, milk powder -2%, cheese +230% (excluding "Miaokelando" which saw a decline of 68%), and other products -32% [1][6]. - The high-end product trend continues, with fresh milk sales increasing by 16% year-on-year for premium offerings [1][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 103.644 billion, with expected growth of 5.1% [3][11]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is RMB 5.482 billion, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 14% [3][11]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% [1][2].