5 June 2025 | 10:59PM HKT Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: UHT milk demand softness persists; investing in channels for share gain We hosted Mengniu's IR team at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jun 5. Key takeaways include: 1) Recent trends: Company noted still weak YTD demand trend for UHT liquid milk, with Apr/May trends tracking largely similar to 1Q25 without notable consumption sentiment uptick. YTD trends showing healthy growth in fresh milk/chilled yogurt and other c ...

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia is positioning itself as a new highland for industrial transfer, leveraging its vast resources and innovative technologies to drive economic transformation and sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Transition and Innovation - The "Liquid Sunshine" project by China Coal Inner Mongolia Energy Chemical Co. is the first fully self-owned intellectual property project in the country, aiming to produce 21,000 tons of green hydrogen and 100,000 tons of methanol annually, significantly reducing coal consumption and CO2 emissions [2]. - Inner Mongolia has a technical exploitable capacity of 1.46 billion kilowatts for wind energy and 940 million kilowatts for solar energy, accounting for 57% and 21% of the national total, respectively [3]. - As of April, Inner Mongolia's total installed capacity for renewable energy reached 138 million kilowatts, a 37% year-on-year increase, making it the first province in China where renewable energy accounts for over 50% of total installed capacity [3]. Group 2: Traditional Industry Transformation - Inner Mongolia's coal industry is evolving from a resource-dependent model to an innovation-driven approach, with projects converting coal into high-performance materials and fine chemical products [4]. - The region's agricultural and livestock product processing rate has reached over 73%, with significant advancements in the value-added processing of sheep tail oil, which can increase the value from 18 yuan to 1,500-2,000 yuan per tail [6][5]. - In 2024, the agricultural and livestock product processing industry in Inner Mongolia is expected to achieve an output value of approximately 350 billion yuan, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu ranking among the top ten dairy enterprises globally [7]. Group 3: Digital Economy and Future Industries - Inner Mongolia is establishing a digital economy through cloud computing and supercomputing, with the Oriental Supercomputing Cloud providing 20 million trillion calculations per second to support over 300 institutions nationwide [9]. - The region is developing a low-altitude economy, focusing on drone manufacturing and related services, as outlined in the 2024-2027 development plan [9]. - The Beidou application industry park is showcasing various new products and technologies, with companies like Tianqi Xinglian Technology leading in satellite applications for renewable energy, tapping into a market worth hundreds of billions [10].

Core Insights - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48.79 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5%, marking the first time it fell below the GDP growth rate of 5% [1] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is transitioning into a phase dominated by "stock competition," focusing on efficiency improvement, brand optimization, and structural adjustments [1] FMCG Company Performance - **Master Kong**: Achieved revenue of 806.51 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.30%, with net profit rising by 19.80% to 37.34 billion yuan [2][6] - **Nongfu Spring**: Reported revenue of 428.96 billion yuan, up by 0.50%, and net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.40% [2][6] - **Uni-President**: Generated revenue of 303.32 billion yuan, a growth of 6.09%, with net profit of 18.49 billion yuan, increasing by 10.90% [2][6] - **China Foods**: Recorded revenue of 214.92 billion yuan, up by 0.20%, and net profit of 8.61 billion yuan, a growth of 3.40% [2][6] - **Eastroc Beverage**: Achieved significant growth with revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, up by 40.63%, and net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, increasing by 63.09% [2][6] - **Three Squirrels**: Reported revenue of 106.22 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 49.30%, with net profit rising by 85.51% to 4.08 billion yuan [2][6] Industry Trends - The FMCG sector is experiencing a shift towards efficiency and brand optimization as the era of rapid market growth driven by demographic dividends comes to an end [1] - Companies are adapting to market changes through product innovation, structural optimization, and brand rejuvenation to establish new growth curves and core competitiveness [13] - The beverage segment is seeing strong performance from Nongfu Spring's tea drinks, which have become a major revenue source despite challenges in the bottled water segment [8][13] - The snack segment is witnessing varied performance, with companies like Qinqin Foods achieving profitability through export and OEM manufacturing, while others like Liuyifei face challenges due to strategic adjustments [13] Dairy Industry Performance - **Yili Group**: Maintained its position as Asia's leading dairy company with revenue of 1,157.80 billion yuan, despite a decline of 8.24% [15][16] - **Mengniu Dairy**: Experienced a revenue drop of 10.09% to 886.75 billion yuan, with net profit significantly declining by 97.83% [15][16] - **Bright Dairy**: Reported revenue of 242.78 billion yuan, down by 8.33%, and net profit of 7.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.36% [15][16] - The dairy industry is facing challenges with supply-demand imbalances and declining consumer demand, leading to revenue declines for many traditional dairy giants [18]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The report from the Jixian County Market Supervision Administration highlights the results of the fourth round of food safety inspections in 2025, indicating a high compliance rate for ordinary food products and a notable number of non-compliant agricultural products. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 213 batches of ordinary food were tested, with all 213 batches passing the inspection [2] - For agricultural products, 45 batches were tested, of which 42 passed and 3 were found to be non-compliant [2] Group 2: Non-compliant Products - The non-compliant agricultural products included: - Bananas from He Sheng Trading Company, with a pesticide residue of 0.086 mg/kg, exceeding the standard limit of 0.02 mg/kg [3] - Ginger from a local market, with a pesticide residue of 0.60 mg/kg, also above the acceptable limit of 0.2 mg/kg [3] - Another batch of bananas from a different vendor, showing a residue of 0.10 mg/kg, again exceeding the standard [3] Group 3: Compliance Standards - The inspections were conducted in accordance with the GB 2763-2021 national food safety standards, which set maximum residue limits for pesticides in food products [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of adhering to these standards to ensure food safety for consumers [2][3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Liquor - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential of the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with significant growth in companies like Li Ziyuan and Dongpeng Beverage [15][22] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is recommended based on four main themes: cost control, new consumption, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage these themes, such as Ximai Food and H&H [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products like Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - For the white liquor sector, leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended [5][22] - The report also suggests monitoring companies in the consumer goods sector that align with the identified themes [22]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Wine - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, driven by new marketing strategies and upcoming sales events [15][22] Consumer Goods - The report recommends focusing on four main themes: cost control, new consumption logic, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - Specific companies to watch include Ximai Foods, Li Ziyuan, and Sanhua Foods, among others [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products such as Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - In the white liquor sector, Moutai and Fenjiu are highlighted for their strong alpha and benefits from market concentration [5][22]

"发展工业旅游，其现实意义已超越传统旅游范畴，工业旅游已成为推动经济、文化和社会发展的新引 擎。"中国（沈阳）工业博物馆馆长王荣巍在接受本报采访时说，发展工业旅游不仅能让工业遗产转化 为新的消费空间，带动周边商业和旅游业的发展，也能极大地促进资源型城市的产业重构和经济转型。 生产线化为"风景线" 近年来，工业旅游作为文旅领域的新场景，正以其独特的魅力频频出圈。生产线化为风景线，智造场变 成打卡地，越来越多的年轻人热衷于到各大工厂参观打卡。 蒙牛工业旅游区通过打造智慧化乳业旅游景区和开展不同形式的线上线下（300959）活动，用科技的方 式向消费者讲述"一棵草"到"一杯奶"的全产业链故事。在这里，游客可以亲证一杯牛奶所蕴含的科技力 量。 蒙牛工业旅游区工作人员向本报介绍，该旅游区隶属于内蒙古蒙牛乳业（集团）股份有限公司，是一家 集国际化、智能化、科普化等国际先进水平为一体的现代化旅游区。 "旅游区构建了'可观（景观）、可玩（参与）、可学（知识）、可购（购物）、可闲（休闲）'的全产业 链工业旅游运营生态体系。"蒙牛工业旅游区工作人员介绍说，该旅游区包含数智化工厂参观、主题活 动定制、中小学生研学课堂、商务游学、鸿 ...

Industry Overview - The dairy market is experiencing a contraction, with a projected 2.7% year-on-year decline in total sales for 2024 according to Nielsen IQ [1] - Dairy production companies are under significant pressure due to an oversupply of raw milk, leading to increased production of industrial milk powder and a surge in inventory [1] Company Performance - Yili's revenue for 2024 is reported at 115.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [2] - Mengniu's revenue stands at 88.6748 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.1% decline, while its net profit plummeted by 97.8% to 10.45 million yuan [2] - Bright Dairy reported revenue of 24.278 billion yuan, down 8.33%, with a net profit decrease of 25.36% to 722 million yuan [2] Strategic Shifts - The B2B segment, particularly in partnerships with restaurants and cafes, is becoming increasingly important for dairy companies as they seek to mitigate losses [2] - Yili has formed partnerships with major restaurant chains like Haidilao and Hushang Ayi, while Mengniu has established strategic collaborations with Yum China and Daka International [2] Pricing Dynamics - The competitive landscape has led to significantly lower transaction prices for milk powder, with major tea beverage companies leveraging this to negotiate favorable terms [3] - The decline in milk prices has helped stabilize costs for coffee companies, allowing them to maintain product pricing and profitability [4] Market Impact - The low prices in the dairy sector are seen as a potential pathway for companies to reduce losses by capturing restaurant business [5] - The pricing war in the restaurant market has eased due to the lower dairy prices, providing some relief to the sector [6]

Group 1 - The core issue in the dairy industry is the mismatch between traditional dairy products and new consumer demands, particularly among young and elderly demographics [1][5] - The dairy industry in China experienced its first negative growth in five years, with total production dropping to 29.62 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year [2] - Major dairy companies such as Yili, Mengniu, and Bright Dairy reported revenue declines of 8%-10% in 2024, reflecting the industry's overall downturn [2] Group 2 - Per capita dairy consumption in China fell to 41.5 kg in 2024, a decrease of 5.6% compared to the previous year, while global average consumption is around 140 kg [4] - The structure of dairy products in China is heavily reliant on liquid milk, which has reached a growth bottleneck, necessitating a shift towards high-value imported dairy products [4][5] - The rise of new consumption scenarios, such as ready-to-eat cheese and health-focused products, presents opportunities for growth in the dairy sector [5][7] Group 3 - Dairy companies are increasingly focusing on functional and health-oriented products, with major players like Yili and Mengniu prioritizing product innovation in this area [7][8] - The aging population in China is expected to create significant market opportunities for health-focused dairy products, particularly for the elderly demographic [8][9] - Reports suggest that the "quasi-elderly" group (ages 45-64) also faces nutritional imbalances, indicating a need for targeted dairy products to meet their specific health requirements [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On May 27, 36 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks totaling 25.22 million shares, with a total buyback amount of 1.047 billion HKD [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - Tencent Holdings repurchased 979,000 shares for 500 million HKD, with a highest price of 514.000 HKD and a lowest price of 507.000 HKD, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to 24.53 billion HKD [1][2]. - Meituan-W repurchased 3.02 million shares for 392 million HKD, with a highest price of 132.400 HKD and a lowest price of 122.600 HKD, totaling 392 million HKD in buybacks for the year [1][2]. - China COSCO Shipping repurchased 6.17 million shares for 89.84 million HKD, with a highest price of 14.820 HKD and a lowest price of 14.280 HKD, accumulating 4.41 billion HKD in buybacks for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on May 27 was from Tencent Holdings at 500 million HKD, followed by Meituan-W at 392 million HKD [1][2]. - In terms of buyback volume, China COSCO Shipping led with 6.17 million shares, followed by NetEase Technology and Meituan-W with 5 million shares and 3.02 million shares, respectively [1][2]. Group 3: First-Time Buybacks - Notably, Meituan-W and Zhongxu Future conducted their first buybacks of the year on this date [2].