Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming economic strategies for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference. It outlines the need for companies to adapt and innovate in response to these directives, particularly in the dairy industry. Group 1: Economic Context - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "maintain stability while seeking progress" and to focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve qualitative and quantitative economic growth [1]. - The article introduces a special report titled "Looking at 2026: The New Journey of the 15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to gather insights from regulatory bodies, scholars, and leading entrepreneurs to interpret policy trends and changes [1]. Group 2: Company Initiatives - Mengniu Group's Senior Executive Vice President, Li Pengcheng, expresses confidence in the future of the Chinese economy and the dairy industry, stating that the company will focus on creating new productive forces in the dairy sector to meet consumer health needs [2][8]. - The company plans to enhance research and innovation in health-related fields such as probiotics and biosynthesis, aiming to upgrade the entire industry value chain to meet diverse nutritional demands [8][9]. Group 3: Digital Transformation - Mengniu Group aims to leverage digital transformation by integrating digital and intelligent technologies into the entire industry chain, enhancing efficiency and productivity through initiatives like smart factories and intelligent pastures [8][9]. Group 4: Sustainable Development - The company is committed to a "GREEN" sustainable development strategy, focusing on green transformation across the entire industry chain, including organic farming and production, as well as the establishment of green and zero-carbon factories [9]. - Mengniu plans to promote green packaging and engage in public welfare projects to encourage broader participation in sustainability efforts [9]. Group 5: Strategic Goals for 2026 - Mengniu Group outlines three strategic goals for 2026: ensuring consumers can access milk through product innovation and market expansion, enhancing the quality of milk through sustainable practices, and meeting diverse consumer health needs through targeted product development [10].

Core Insights - The conference "Inner Mongolia Taste: New Food Era - Dairy Product Innovation Promotion" was held in Hohhot, focusing on "quality upgrade, technological empowerment, and industry integration" [1] - Mengniu Dairy showcased its innovative product matrix tailored for different channel customers, promoting deep integration of dairy products with various sectors such as catering, baking, and cultural tourism [3] Group 1 - The event gathered government, industry associations, and partners to witness the innovative achievements in Inner Mongolia's dairy industry [1] - Mengniu Dairy has utilized the GOSS system to achieve efficient use of raw milk, breaking the dependency on imported core materials [3] Group 2 - A strategic cooperation signing ceremony took place, with COFCO's Inner Mongolia regional platform collaborating with the Fengzhen City Mooncake Industry Association to promote the integration of "grassland milk flavor" with "intangible cultural heritage pastries" [5] - Mengniu's business departments partnered with Haipeng Food Company to develop new businesses and expand markets, establishing a new benchmark for "dairy + baking" cross-industry cooperation [5] Group 3 - The event featured a "New Food Era Display Corridor," showcasing over 20 excellent brands from "Inner Mongolia Taste" and COFCO, allowing guests to experience the diverse possibilities of "Inner Mongolia Taste" through product displays and creative drinks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy market in China is experiencing significant changes amid market fluctuations, with a contraction in demand and increased competition among major players [1][2][17]. Market Overview - The liquid milk industry in China is projected to reach a scale of 344.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.2% from 2022 to 2024, following a previous CAGR of 7.2% from 2011 to 2021 [1]. - In September 2025, the overall sales of dairy products across all channels saw a year-on-year decline of 16.8% [1]. Company Performance - In Q3, Yili's revenue decreased by 1.7% to 28.631 billion yuan, while Mengniu's revenue fell by 6.9% to 41.567 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][6]. - Yili's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 1.71% to 90.564 billion yuan, but its net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan [6]. - Yili's liquid milk revenue declined by 4.49% to 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a significant drop of 8.83% in Q3 [6]. Competitive Landscape - The market is undergoing a period of adjustment, with intensified price competition due to weakened demand [7][8]. - Yili has maintained a relatively stable position in the market despite fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a healthy industry ecosystem rather than engaging in aggressive price wars [8]. - In the ambient milk sector, Yili and Mengniu maintain a duopoly with a combined market share of 87%, where Yili holds 48% and Mengniu 39% [8]. Product Segmentation - Yili's milk powder and dairy products revenue increased by 13.7% to 24.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters, driven by double-digit growth in infant formula sales [8]. - The infant formula market is competitive, with Yili claiming the top market share, while competitors like Feihe are experiencing revenue declines [9][11]. Regional Dynamics - The low-temperature milk market is highly competitive, with Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% [12]. - Regional dairy companies are facing increasing pressure, with companies like Guangming Dairy and San Yuan experiencing revenue declines, while New Dairy and Junlebao are expanding [13][14]. Strategic Developments - New Dairy has achieved significant growth through acquisitions and is focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in its home market of Chengdu [14]. - Junlebao is expanding its production capacity and has initiated an IPO process, indicating a strategic push for growth [16]. Future Opportunities - The dairy industry still presents structural opportunities, including the potential to tap into specialized nutrition markets and expand internationally [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Jinwu Kaijia Ba!" organized by Mengniu's milk powder brand "Yourui" successfully showcased the vitality of the elderly community, promoting the national strategy of "active aging" and "Healthy China" through a large-scale cultural and sports event broadcasted on CCTV [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was a collaboration between Mengniu, CCTV, the National Sports Administration, and the All-China Women's Federation, spanning six provinces over eight months [1]. - It aimed to break the limitations of traditional square dancing by providing a high-standard platform for performance, integrating elements like "square dance + intangible cultural heritage" [2]. Group 2: Audience Engagement and Impact - The total performance aired on CCTV-3 achieved a peak viewership rating of over 0.80%, surpassing the historical average by 28% [4]. - The event's online presence was significant, with a total playback exceeding 12.72 million and an interaction volume of 450,000 across major social media platforms [4][7]. Group 3: Brand Recognition and Community Empowerment - The event was recognized as an outstanding case in brand marketing, winning the "Annual Outstanding Scene Marketing Case" award from Economic Observer [9]. - Mengniu's Yourui brand transitioned from being a provider of nutritional solutions for the elderly to a key contributor to the vibrant lifestyle of the elderly community, emphasizing values like vitality, confidence, and community [11]. Group 4: Research and Product Development - Mengniu established a joint research center with Sun Yat-sen University to focus on nutrition and health for the elderly, aiming to improve their health through scientific research and innovation [13]. - The brand launched a scientifically formulated product "Yourui Bone Strength Gold" targeting health needs related to bones, joints, and muscles, which received multiple awards for its innovative approach [15]. Group 5: Future Vision - The event's conclusion marks the beginning of a broader movement towards redefining social values for the elderly, with Mengniu committed to fostering a supportive environment for the elderly through nutrition and cultural engagement [16].

Core Viewpoint - The sixth Global Trends Conference highlighted "new quality consumption" and "enterprise going global," with Mengniu Group sharing its innovative practices for high-quality development amidst industry changes [1] Group 1: R&D Innovation and Industry Upgrade - Mengniu focuses on developing more nutritious products to meet consumer health needs, investing heavily in R&D with a team of 15 academicians and over 100 scientists [2] - The company has established a comprehensive quality management system across the entire supply chain, ensuring product safety and quality, surpassing EU standards in key metrics [4] - Mengniu has developed customized products addressing specific consumer needs, such as lactose intolerance and sports nutrition, launching innovative products like "soft milk" and the "Maisen" sports nutrition brand [4][5] Group 2: Smart Manufacturing and Digital Transformation - Mengniu is leveraging digital and intelligent technologies to reshape its entire supply chain, establishing smart factories and farms [7] - The Ningxia factory was recognized as a "lighthouse factory" by the World Economic Forum, achieving a production capacity of 1 million tons and an annual output value of 10 billion yuan [7] - The Wuhan factory was certified by Forbes as the world's largest single low-temperature yogurt factory, showcasing efficient production and supply chain management [7] Group 3: Sustainable Development Initiatives - Mengniu is committed to a "GREEN" sustainable development strategy, integrating ecological restoration with industry development in its upstream operations [11] - The company has built 37 national-level green factories and two zero-carbon factories, promoting green packaging and waste recycling initiatives [12] - Mengniu has maintained an AA rating in MSCI ESG ratings for three consecutive years, leading the industry in sustainable practices [12]

Group 1 - The core event "Jinwu Kaijiao Ba!" organized by Mengniu's "Yourui" brand was broadcasted on CCTV, showcasing over a hundred offline performances across six provinces in China [1] - The event achieved a peak viewership rating of over 0.80%, surpassing the historical average by 28%, with a total online view count exceeding 12.72 million and an interaction volume of 450,000 [1] - Mengniu's "Yourui" brand has transitioned from being a provider of nutritional solutions for middle-aged and elderly individuals to becoming a key contributor to the vibrant lifestyle of China's elderly community, emphasizing core values of vitality, confidence, community, and culture [1] Group 2 - Mengniu's "Yourui" has established a joint research center with Sun Yat-sen University focused on nutrition and health for the elderly, aiming to provide scientific support for improving the nutritional health of this demographic [2] - The product "Yourui Bone Strength Gold" was launched, featuring a scientific formula that includes N-acetylglucosamine and patented ingredients, addressing health needs related to bones, joints, and muscles [2] - The innovative product has received multiple awards, including the "Best Formula Innovation Award" at the 2025 World Beverage Innovation Awards and the "Annual Nutrition Product Award for Elderly Action" at the Asia-Pacific Functional Food Industry Awards, highlighting the company's commitment to elderly health through scientific advancements [2]

Core Viewpoint - Different consumer sectors exhibit both differences and commonalities in recovery rhythms, with ROA being a leading indicator for operational recovery in consumer enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Recovery Rhythm Analysis - The recovery rhythm of various consumer sectors is influenced by industry supply and demand, as well as supply chain structures, with a focus on stock market competition as a mainstream phenomenon [2] - The stages of enterprise and channel adjustments are outlined, starting from oversupply to a new balance in supply and demand, with ROA serving as a key indicator throughout these stages [2] - Current recovery sequences indicate that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by food supply chains, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors where ROA stabilizes, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, with a preference for sectors that still show price or volume growth [3] - Price logic suggests that rising CPI may drive valuation recovery in traditional industries with high penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are likely to attract incremental capital [3][4] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while in dairy, focus on Yili and Mengniu [3] Group 3: Volume Logic - In the context of cost-effective consumption, companies with high supply chain efficiency are expected to gain volume, with specific recommendations for companies in the food supply chain and soft drinks [4] - Industries with low penetration rates may withstand economic cycles, with recommendations for low-alcohol beverages and functional foods that can enhance brand premium through specialization [4] - Companies benefiting from overseas market expansion include Angel Yeast and Bailong Chuangyuan [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery stage of consumer spending, highlighting that different sectors exhibit both commonalities and differences in their recovery rhythms, driven by supply-demand dynamics and industry structure [4][5] - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer companies, with a focus on analyzing various sub-sectors [4][13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The current recovery sequence indicates that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [5][25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, noting that sectors addressing consumer pain points and with low penetration rates are likely to succeed [5][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors where ROA is stabilizing, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly in traditional sectors like liquor, beer, and dairy [6][8] - It recommends identifying sub-sectors with either price or volume growth, with a preference for price-driven strategies [6][8] Group 4: Detailed Sector Analysis - The frozen food sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with leading companies enhancing operational efficiency through product innovation and channel reforms [27][28] - The snack sector is experiencing high demand, driven by new channel developments, although competition is intensifying [33][35] - The beer industry is under pressure, with a focus on high-end products, but overall growth is slowing due to external economic factors [39][41] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with expectations of improved performance as raw milk prices rise [41][42] - The liquor sector is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with performance risks gradually clearing as channels stabilize [43][48]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations against EU dairy imports, implementing temporary anti-subsidy deposit measures starting December 23, 2025, which could accelerate domestic dairy product processing and promote local alternatives [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-subsidy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose temporary anti-subsidy tax deposits on EU dairy products, with rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%, generally close to 30% [1]. - The investigation found that EU dairy products have received subsidies that harm the domestic dairy industry [1]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Market - The anti-subsidy tax is expected to increase import prices, thereby accelerating the shift towards domestic dairy product processing [2]. - The current domestic milk prices are lower than international prices, which may further enhance the competitiveness of local products [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is anticipated to increase the consumption of raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [3]. - Domestic milk prices have stabilized since August, driven by supply adjustments from social pastures and increased demand from expanding consumption scenarios such as milk tea [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies benefiting from the deep processing business include Miaokelando (600882.SH), Yili (600887.SH), Mengniu Dairy (02319), and Lihigh Food (300973.SZ) [4]. - Upstream livestock companies that may benefit include Youran Dairy (09858), Modern Dairy (01117), and China Shengmu (01432) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU imported dairy products, specifically targeting cheese and high-fat cream, which are core categories in deep processing of dairy products. This policy is set to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers and is expected to have a rapid market impact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling on countervailing investigations against EU dairy imports, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic industry. Starting December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide a deposit of 21.9% to 42.7% based on the value of the goods [2]. Characteristics of the Policy - The ruling specifically targets cheese and high-fat cream, which are heavily reliant on imports, with over 50% of high-fat cream being imported. The measures impose a significant cost increase on EU products, with an average subsidy rate close to 30%. The policy takes effect immediately, demonstrating the government's commitment to market stability [3]. Market Impact - The countervailing policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the deep processing sector, potentially freeing up a market space of 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese. Historically, China's dairy processing industry has been heavily reliant on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology, with domestic products only accounting for 14%-18% of the market in 2023. The policy is anticipated to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers, particularly benefiting those in high-fat cream production [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities: - Domestic substitution beneficiaries: Recommended stocks include Lihigh Foods (300973.SZ) and Miaokelando (600882.SH), with Lihigh being the largest domestic cream producer and poised to benefit from price increases in imported brands [5]. - Dairy price reversal benefiting upstream farms: Companies like Youran Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) are highlighted, as they are expected to show resilience and potential profit recovery with the reversal of raw milk prices [5]. - Strengthening competitiveness of leading dairy companies: Recommendations include Yili (600887.SH) and Mengniu Dairy (02319), which are expected to benefit from stabilized milk prices and accelerated deep processing business, enhancing their long-term growth potential [5].