Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy's cheese business continues to lead the industry with innovative products and a comprehensive strategy targeting all age groups, achieving full coverage from children's cheese to universal cheese [1][3]. Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu's cheese business maintained its position as the market leader, supported by a dual-brand strategy that integrates "Miaokelando," "Mengniu Cheese," and "Aishi Chenxi" into a multi-brand matrix, securing the highest market share in the industry [1][2]. - The implementation of a dual-driven strategy (TOB and TOC) has allowed Mengniu to achieve a leading market share in China's cheese retail market, reflecting a trend of industry concentration towards top players [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Strategy - The consumer strategy focuses on "one major scene, two major directions, and three target demographics," emphasizing family consumption, innovation in cheese snacks and functional products, and targeting children, youth, and the elderly [2]. - Offline channels are optimized by leveraging dual-brand advantages and enhancing the national distributor layout, while online channels are actively developed on platforms like JD, Tmall, and Pinduoduo, as well as interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [2]. Group 3: B2B Strategy - The B2B strategy provides professional dairy solutions across five consumption scenarios: Western fast food, Chinese cuisine, tea and coffee, baking, and hotels, with products like cream, butter, mozzarella, mascarpone, and cheese slices [2]. - The increasing necessity of cheese in dining scenarios is driving B2B education, which in turn stimulates C-end demand, creating a synergistic effect between B2B and B2C [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As an industry leader, Mengniu's cheese business will continue to invest in R&D to promote category upgrades, aiming for a diversified, multi-scenario, and functional development of cheese products [3]. - The company plans to leverage its comprehensive product matrix, brand influence, and extensive channel network to maintain its leadership position and contribute to the optimization of China's dairy industry [3].

证券时报•数据宝统计，蒙牛乳业在港交所公告显示，8月28日以每股15.810港元至16.000港元的价格回 购30.00万股，回购金额达477.69万港元。该股当日收盘价15.840港元，下跌2.22%，全天成交额6.95亿 港元。 今年以来该股累计进行65次回购，合计回购1450.20万股，累计回购金额2.50亿港元。（数据宝） 蒙牛乳业回购明细 日期 回购股数 （万股） 回购最高价 （港元） 回购最低价 （港元） 回购金额 （万港元） 2025.08.28 30.00 16.000 15.810 477.69 2025.07.25 20.00 17.280 17.020 343.33 2025.07.24 20.00 17.300 17.240 345.45 2025.07.23 20.00 17.560 17.500 351.09 2025.07.22 20.00 17.200 17.180 343.67 2025.07.21 20.00 17.120 17.060 342.07 2025.07.18 20.00 16.980 16.940 339.30 2025.07.17 20.00 16.880 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，8月25日，摩根大通增持蒙牛乳业(02319)138.5376万股，每股作价16.5089港 元，总金额约为2287.10万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.35亿股，最新持股比例为6%。 来源：智通财经网 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，8月25日，摩根大通增持蒙牛乳业(02319)138.5376万股，每股作价16.5089港 元，总金额约为2287.10万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.35亿股，最新持股比例为6%。 ...

蒙牛乳业(02319)发布公告，于2025年8月28日斥资477.69万港元回购30万股股份。 ...

智通财经APP讯，蒙牛乳业(02319)发布公告，于2025年8月28日斥资477.69万港元回购30万股股份。 ...

格隆汇8月28日丨蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)发布公告，2025年8月28日耗资477.69万港元回购30万股，回购价 格每股15.81-16港元。 ...

第 1 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 | | | 第 2 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年8月28日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02319 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21, while the current price is HKD 16.20 [4][7]. Core Views - The revenue performance is under pressure, but operating profit margin (OPM) has improved, indicating a focus on quality and returns despite external demand challenges [4][7]. - The company is expected to face continued revenue pressure in the second half of the year, but profitability is anticipated to recover due to cost benefits and improved operational efficiency [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Total revenue is projected to decline from HKD 88.675 billion in 2024 to HKD 81.210 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [4][13]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from HKD 105 million in 2024 to HKD 4.511 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4216.4% [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from HKD 0.03 in 2024 to HKD 1.16 in 2025, with further growth to HKD 1.36 and HKD 1.56 in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][13]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 554 in 2024 to 13 in 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [4][13]. Segment Performance - **Product Categories**: Liquid milk revenue decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, while infant formula and ice cream showed positive growth of 2.5% and 15% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across product lines [7][8]. - **Cost Management**: The company benefited from lower raw milk prices, leading to a gross margin increase to 41.75% in the first half of 2025, up by 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that while external demand remains weak, the company’s inventory management is healthy, and operational improvements are expected to support profitability recovery in the second half of the year [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 23.74 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 415.7 million and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 20.5 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.9% and 16.4% respectively. The liquid milk business continues to face challenges, while diversified businesses such as ice cream and overseas operations show growth potential [1][2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows liquid milk at HKD 321.9 million (down 11.2%), ice cream at HKD 38.8 million (up 15.0%), milk powder at HKD 16.8 million (up 2.5%), and cheese at HKD 23.7 million (up 12.3%) [2]. - Gross profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.9% due to inventory impairment and losses from joint ventures [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in liquid milk demand, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which are seen as critical observation periods. The ice cream business has returned to positive growth, and profitability in milk powder and cheese is expected to improve [1][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to HKD 842.7 billion, HKD 864.3 billion, and HKD 883.3 billion, reflecting a decrease of 5%, 4%, and 4% respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is projected at HKD 1.08, HKD 1.45, and HKD 1.58 [4][10].