以下文章来源于昕锐消费笔谈 ，作者孟昕赵梦菲金桐羽 昕锐消费笔谈 . 以新锐视角分享和传递家电、轻工及智能制造等新消费的研究心得 文章转自2025年07月31日太平洋家电轻工团队报告，分析师： 孟昕 、赵梦菲、 金桐羽 投资要点 行业分析：内销政策利好叠加外销复苏，两轮车行业发展前景广阔。 1）内销： 新强标政策出台加速低质低价产品出清，叠加2025年以旧换新政策延续促进更新 需求，两轮车行业规模和集中度均有望进一步提升，2025年中国两轮电动车销量有望达5200万台。 2）外销： 东南亚多国推出"油改电"补贴，越南河内"禁摩"有 望进一步助推电动两轮车东南亚市场的增长，或将为两轮车出口带来新增量。 公司分析：产品端深耕两轮并拓展三轮业务，渠道生产端不断突破 。 1）产品端： 公司两轮车业务已实现电动自行车、电动摩托车品类全价格段覆盖，智能化方 面局车产品实现规模高速扩张，同时规模效应也或将帮助盈利能力提升。 女积性极客完群善，多共端同协助同推生收态入体规系模，和高产端品化结方构面的旗不舰断新提品升Q7；和公A7plus 司电动助三力轮公车司业两务轮在车行业业务竞价争格格天局花较板为上分探散至的5000背景元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is undergoing a significant transformation from fuel-powered motorcycles to electric motorcycles, driven by environmental concerns, policy initiatives, and market responses [1][5]. Group 1: Environmental Concerns - Vietnam faces severe air pollution issues, particularly in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with Hanoi's PM2.5 annual average expected to reach 47 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, nearly double the national standard [1]. - The World Bank reports that urban air pollution in Vietnam incurs health costs amounting to billions of dollars annually, including increased medical expenses and decreased labor productivity [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - The Vietnamese government has established a phased "motorcycle ban roadmap," starting with a complete ban on fuel motorcycles in Hanoi's inner ring road by July 2026, expanding to the second ring by January 2028, and implementing a clean transportation policy by January 2030 [2]. - Ho Chi Minh City aims for 100% electrification of ride-hailing services by 2028, while other cities like Da Nang and Hai Phong are developing similar plans to create a nationwide green transportation network [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The electric motorcycle market in Vietnam is experiencing rapid growth, with a twofold increase in orders in the first five months of 2025 [2]. - Local brands like VinFast are leading the market, with sales of 97,400 electric motorcycles in 2024, including 53,100 in the fourth quarter alone [2]. Group 4: Consumer Incentives - Various government initiatives, such as the "old-for-new" program in Ho Chi Minh City, provide tax reductions, low-interest loans, and subsidies to encourage consumers to switch to electric motorcycles [3]. - Despite electric motorcycles being 20% to 30% more expensive than fuel models, their long-term cost advantages can offset the initial price difference within 3 to 4 years [3]. Group 5: Infrastructure Challenges - Vietnam currently has over 5,000 public charging stations, primarily in large cities, with rural areas lacking infrastructure [4]. - The government plans to invest 10 trillion VND to build 5,000 charging stations over the next five years, while VinFast is exploring battery swapping models to address charging time issues [4]. Group 6: Early Results and Future Outlook - Initial results of the green transition are promising, with PM2.5 concentrations in Hanoi decreasing by 10% to 15% in certain periods and noise levels dropping by 5 to 10 decibels in areas with high electric motorcycle usage [4]. - Vietnam's approach to transitioning from a "motorcycle kingdom" to an "electric motorcycle kingdom" serves as a reference model for sustainable development in developing countries [5].

8月18日主力资金净流出4503.76万元，占流通市值0.11%。近五个交易日主力资金累计净流出1.65亿 元，占流通市值0.39%。 春风动力属于交运设备行业，主要从事全地形车、摩托车及后市场用品的研发、生产和销售。公司产品 包括四轮全地形车、两轮摩托车、电动摩托车等。 数据显示，二季度社保基金新进持有春风动力197.94万股，占流通股比例为1.3%。在社保基金新进个股 中，春风动力持股比例排名第五位。 春风动力股价报280.76元，较前一交易日下跌5.17元，跌幅1.81%。开盘价为285.95元，最高触及285.95 元，最低下探278.20元，成交量为20583手，成交金额5.78亿元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xinri Co., Ltd. is 13.03 yuan, an increase of 1.56% compared to the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 13.19 yuan and a low of 12.85 yuan, and a trading volume of 0.75 billion yuan [1] - Xinri Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric bicycles, electric lightweight motorcycles, and electric motorcycles, with products ranging from basic models to luxury versions, lithium battery models, and special vehicles [1] - The company recently announced the completion of business registration changes and has obtained a new business license from the Wuxi Data Bureau, with the changes primarily involving adjustments to its business scope [1] Group 2 - On the day of the announcement, the net outflow of main funds for Xinri Co., Ltd. was 3.8012 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 11.2134 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - Chery Group accelerates its entry into the electric motorcycle sector through its affiliate Anhui Lingwei Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd [1] - The company has initiated a procurement project for motorcycle trial production equipment, including key devices such as trial drilling machines, pipe cutting machines, CNC lathes, and milling machines [1] - The chairman of the new venture is Bao Siyu, the executive vice president of Chery Holding Group, indicating a formal commitment to the two-wheeler manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - Chery previously signaled its cross-industry ambitions in 2024 with the circulation of images featuring the iCar logo alongside electric motorcycle products, attracting industry attention [1] - The company has been actively recruiting experienced talent in motorcycle development, emphasizing the importance of "user co-creation" capabilities [1] - The equipment procurement marks a significant advancement following the tender for the final assembly line in May and the announcement of trial production equipment in June [1]

机构：方正证券 研究员：李珍妮/马萤 观，每年存量替换需求较为稳健；另一方面，在新国标推动下，电动两轮车市场有望逐步转为以产品质 量及品牌力为核心的良性竞争，欠缺研发制造能力及销售网络的中小厂商将逐渐被淘汰，龙头企业将凭 自身实力获得更明显的竞争优势。 公司以产品力为基石，渠道布局有序推进。公司始终重视产品研发，构建了包括液冷动力系统、数字化 电池系统、固态电气系统在内的核心技术壁垒；持续强化多元产品组合，策略性强调中高端市场布局， 随着高毛利产品占比提升，公司盈利能力有望保持稳中有升。渠道端，持续完善多维度渠道布局，加强 线上线下协同，提升端对端零售能力，企业客户方面，与共享出行服务商合作关系稳固，传统业务整体 保持稳健向上。 前瞻布局高端电助力车细分市场，推出LYVA新品牌。公司将LYVA品牌设定为战略发展方向，聚焦以 电助力车为代表的短途代步及轻运动产品，并结合AI智能技术打造多场景轻出行解决方案，有望吸 引、开拓有别于传统自行车及电动两轮车的全新客群。 盈利预测与评级：公司作为电动两轮车行业头部企业，产品研发能力领先，零售渠道逐步加强，ToB渠 道保持稳健，传统业务基本盘稳中求进，同时积极切入E-Bi ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric bicycle market in Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid growth, driven by government incentives and increasing market demand, presenting opportunities for Chinese brands like Yadea, Aima, and Tailg to expand their presence in the region [1][2]. Market Overview - As of 2024, China's electric two-wheeler ownership exceeds 350 million units, indicating limited future growth potential domestically. In contrast, Southeast Asia has a motorcycle household penetration rate of 75%, significantly higher than the global average of 29% [2]. - The ASEAN electric two-wheeler market is projected to reach $1.0778 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to $2.232 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.90% from 2025 to 2030 [2]. Government Policies - Southeast Asian governments are implementing favorable policies to encourage the transition from fuel to electric vehicles, such as zero tariffs on electric motorcycle imports in the Philippines and a target for 25% of two-wheeler sales to be electric in Vietnam by 2030 [4]. - Vietnam plans to establish 10,000 public charging points to support the adoption of electric motorcycles, although the lack of standardized charging infrastructure may hinder market penetration [4]. Competitive Landscape - Traditional fuel motorcycle manufacturers like Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki dominate the market but are slow to transition to electric, creating opportunities for Chinese electric two-wheeler manufacturers to enter Southeast Asia [7][8]. - Chinese brands are investing in local production facilities in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, with Yadea already operating over 400 stores in Vietnam [8]. Consumer Preferences - Southeast Asian consumers prioritize economic practicality, reliable range, and affordable pricing when selecting electric two-wheelers, influenced by local geography, economic conditions, and policy direction [9]. - The demand for high cost-performance products in emerging markets provides a favorable entry point for Chinese brands, which benefit from a complete supply chain that reduces production costs and enhances efficiency [9]. Future Trends - The development of battery swapping models is anticipated to be a key trend in the electric motorcycle market, similar to the initial subsidy-driven growth seen in the domestic electric vehicle market [10]. - Southeast Asian markets focus on the economic practicality of charging and swapping solutions, with consumer preferences leaning towards electric motorcycles that can achieve over 100 kilometers of range and low maintenance costs [11].

Core Viewpoint - The electric bicycle market in Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid growth, driven by government incentives and increasing market demand, presenting opportunities for Chinese brands like Yadea, Aima, and Tailg to expand their presence in the region [2][3]. Market Overview - China has over 350 million electric two-wheelers, indicating limited future growth domestically, while Southeast Asia has a motorcycle household penetration rate of 75%, significantly higher than the global average of 29% [3]. - The ASEAN electric two-wheeler market is projected to reach USD 1.0778 billion in 2024 and grow to USD 2.232 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.90% from 2025 to 2030 [3]. Government Policies - Southeast Asian governments are implementing favorable policies to encourage the transition from fuel to electric vehicles, such as zero tariffs on electric motorcycle imports in the Philippines and a target for 25% of two-wheel sales to be electric in Vietnam by 2030 [6]. - Vietnam plans to establish 10,000 public charging points to support the adoption of electric motorcycles, although the lack of standardized charging infrastructure may hinder penetration rates [6]. Competitive Landscape - Traditional fuel motorcycle manufacturers like Honda, Yamaha, and Suzuki dominate the market but are slow to transition to electric, creating opportunities for Chinese electric two-wheeler manufacturers to enter Southeast Asia [9][10]. - Chinese brands are investing in local production facilities in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, with Yadea already operating over 400 stores in Vietnam [10]. Consumer Preferences - Southeast Asian consumers prioritize economic practicality, reliable range, and affordable pricing when choosing electric two-wheelers, which aligns with the strengths of Chinese manufacturers in cost control and supply chain integration [12]. - The demand for electric motorcycles with a range of over 100 kilometers and low maintenance costs is significant, especially in regions with challenging climates and infrastructure [14]. Industry Trends - The development of battery swapping models is seen as a key trend in the electric motorcycle market, similar to the initial growth path of electric vehicles in China [12]. - The focus on practical and economical solutions in Southeast Asia contrasts with the emphasis on lightweight and high energy density in the European and American markets [13].

Market Overview - On July 28, the A-share market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.96%[2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included electronic components, insurance, aerospace, and chemical pharmaceuticals, while coal, iron, and energy metals saw declines[1] - Approximately 2,800 stocks rose, indicating a broad-based market rally[1] Capital Flow - On July 28, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 76.10 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 111.46 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were components, communication equipment, and chemical pharmaceuticals, whereas IT services, railways, and electricity faced the largest outflows[3] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Science and Technology aims to enhance the effectiveness of technology transfer and innovation, indicating a focus on improving the national technology transfer system[4] - The National Energy Administration announced plans to establish a unified national electricity market by the end of the year, emphasizing the importance of energy supply and regulatory measures[5] Taxation Insights - From 2021 to 2024, the top 10% income earners contributed approximately 90% of individual income tax, highlighting the progressive nature of the tax system[6] - High-tech industry sales revenue grew by 14.3% in the first half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing's share of total manufacturing rising from 15.3% in 2020 to 16.9% in the first half of this year[7] Industry Trends - The electric motorcycle industry saw a slight decline in sales, with June figures showing a year-on-year drop of 15.37%[8] - Shanghai has issued 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers to reduce costs for AI applications, supporting the development of AI ecosystems[9] Fund Dynamics - The fund issuance market remains active, with 31 new funds launched this week, predominantly in equity funds[10] - Consumer REITs have shown strong performance, with over 80% of the 66 reported products achieving quarterly profits, indicating robust institutional interest[11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Home Appliances - Emerging markets have a low penetration rate in home appliances, driving demand growth due to economic development. These markets account for 32% of global home appliance sales and 67% of the population, indicating significant future growth potential [1][2][4] - The export growth rate for white goods is notably high, with Southeast Asia and Latin America experiencing compound annual growth rates of over 13% and 20%, respectively, over the past five years [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Short-term fluctuations in exports to the U.S. are influenced by tariff policies, but stable end-user demand is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in exports in the third and fourth quarters once tariff policies are clarified [1][5] - Domestic market growth has been stimulated by national subsidy policies, with air conditioner, refrigerator, and washing machine sales increasing in the first half of the year. However, the sustainability of these subsidy policies is uncertain, and their potential cessation could disrupt the industry, though the impact is expected to be less than anticipated [1][6][7] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted sales of emerging appliance categories like robotic vacuum cleaners, which saw sales growth exceeding 40%. Even if subsidies are withdrawn in the future, these categories are expected to maintain high growth potential due to short replacement cycles [1][8] Investment Opportunities - The white goods industry primarily relies on replacement demand, with limited oversupply. Companies with high dividend yields and payout ratios above 50%, such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense, are recommended for investment [1][9][10] - Companies with strong overseas advantages and notable performance reversals, such as Ecovacs, Roborock, Anker Innovations, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [1][10] Additional Important Insights - The national subsidy policy has had a limited impact on overall market sales, primarily affecting pricing and product structure rather than significantly increasing total sales volumes [1][7] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to see rapid increases in penetration rates as GDP per capita rises, further driving industry growth [4] - The home appliance sector is characterized by a focus on replacement demand domestically, with emerging categories showing significant growth potential even in the absence of subsidies [1][9]