Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to generate total revenue of 2.77 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of no more than 8.3%, while net profit is projected to be at least 225 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of at least 19.3% [1]. - The company has embraced the DeepSeek large model by the end of 2024, aiming to enhance the performance of its self-developed domain-specific large model and restructure the public service training industry ecosystem [2]. - The self-developed domain-specific large model covers the entire "teaching-learning-practice-assessment" chain, with the launch of a premium AI interview evaluation product priced at 1 RMB per session [3]. - The company has integrated online and offline resources through an innovative OMO model, achieving economies of scale and synergy effects, which positions it favorably in the competitive job market [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has consistently maintained robust profitability since its listing, with net profits achieving double-digit growth levels [1]. - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate revenues of 2.77 billion RMB, 3.09 billion RMB, and 3.56 billion RMB, with net profits of 350 million RMB, 400 million RMB, and 470 million RMB respectively [5]. User Engagement and Market Position - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 72.74 million registered users, reflecting strong market recognition [3]. - The recent AI interview mock exam competition saw a peak registration of over 22,000 participants in a single day, with a total of 94,000 registrations in the past week, indicating a significant increase in user engagement [3]. Business Model and Strategy - The company offers a comprehensive range of training services, including online learning products, large class live courses, and small personalized training classes, catering to public service recruitment and professional qualification exams [4]. - The OMO model allows the company to leverage both online and offline resources effectively, enhancing its competitive edge in the vocational examination training industry [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is facing increased competition in the exam training industry, leading to a decline in revenue and adjusted net profit for 2024. The estimated revenue for 2024 is at least 2.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of no more than 8.3%, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be at least 0.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of no more than 21.4% [2][6] - The company has launched AI products covering various exam preparation areas, which include features such as question answering, study planning, and intelligent supervision. Although the short-term contribution to performance is limited, these innovations are expected to significantly impact the industry ecosystem in the long run [6] - The financial forecasts for adjusted net profit for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 0.361 billion yuan, 0.372 billion yuan, and 0.412 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 18x, 17x, and 16x for these years, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the market's focus on AI applications [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 2.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -18%. In 2023, revenue increased to 3.02 billion yuan, showing a growth rate of 7.5%. For 2024, revenue is projected to decrease to 2.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.19 billion yuan in 2022, increasing to 0.445 billion yuan in 2023, a growth rate of 134.1%. The forecast for 2024 is a net profit of 0.361 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 19% [4][6] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 49% for 2024 to 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 22% in 2024, decreasing to 19% and 17% in the following years [4][6]

FU HHE 粉筆有限公司 Fenbi Ltd. (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司 ) 股份代號：2469 ABC 中期 報告 目錄 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------| | | | | 公司資料 | 2 | | 業績摘要 | 4 | | 管理層討論與分析 | 5 | | 其他資料 | 13 | | 中期財務資料的審閱報告 | 28 | | 中期簡明合併損益表 | 29 | | 中期簡明合併綜合收益表 | 30 | | 中期簡明合併資產負債表 | 31 | | 中期簡明合併權益變動表 | 33 | | 中期簡明合併現金流量表 | 34 | | 中期財務資料附註 | 35 | | 釋義 | 62 | 公司資料 上海浦東發展銀行北京分行 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | 董事會 | 核數師 | | 執行董事 | 羅兵咸永道會計師事務所 | | 張小龍先生 （主席兼首席執行官） | 執業 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 2.62 HKD, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion HKD for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 3.08% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit increased by 21% to 350 million HKD [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a scheduling conflict between the company's examination training and provincial civil service examination, leading to a drop in sales of training materials [1]. - The company has seen a 5% year-on-year increase in employee count, totaling 7,564 employees, while the average monthly active users remained stable at 9.2 million [1]. - The gross margin improved to 54.2%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced employee welfare expenses and enhanced operational efficiency [1]. - The company is leveraging AI to significantly enhance operational efficiency, with teacher productivity increasing by 275% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, training service revenue was 1.379 billion HKD, accounting for 84.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [1]. - Book sales revenue was 252 million HKD, representing 15.4% of total revenue, also down by 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin reached 17.03%, an increase of 12.19 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s management expense ratio decreased to 12.11%, down by 6.90 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 19.65%, up by 1.56 percentage points [1]. - R&D expenses were 108 million HKD, a decrease of 24.4% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 6.64% [1]. Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 3.152 billion RMB, 3.501 billion RMB, and 3.901 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [2]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 551 million RMB, 630 million RMB, and 730 million RMB for the same period [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.25 RMB, 0.28 RMB, and 0.33 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10x, 9x, and 7x [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, while net profit increased by 240.9% to 278 million CNY [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 349 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.2% [1] - The company is the largest recruitment training institution in China, with a unique online gene [1] - Despite a decrease in industry concentration, the company continues to focus on high-quality teaching services, leading to improved profit margins [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from training services and book sales was 1.379 billion CNY and 252 million CNY, respectively, both down by 3.1% and 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Training services account for 75% of total revenue, with small class courses generating 1.026 billion CNY, representing 63% of total revenue [1] - The company expects an increase in enrollment due to current employment trends, although the decrease in industry concentration may pressure customer pricing [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 54.2%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, with training services and book sales gross margins at 57.9% and 33.6%, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 21.4%, a year-on-year increase of 4.3 percentage points, marking a new high since the company went public [1] Share Buyback Activity - The company repurchased shares worth approximately 154 million HKD, canceling 35.87 million shares, reflecting confidence in long-term business prospects [1] - The total share capital is now approximately 2.239 billion shares [1] Future Profit Projections - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 452 million CNY, 478 million CNY, and 519 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit projections are 553 million CNY, 578 million CNY, and 619 million CNY for the same years [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 11, and 10 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 考试错期扰动收入，利润率持续修复 粉笔(2469) [Table_Industry] 教育产业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——粉笔 2024 年中期业绩点评 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 2.84 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------| | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 2.53-5.45 | | 当前股本（百万股） | 2,239 | | 当前市值（百万港元） | 6,359 | -41% -28% -14% -1% 13% 26% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/7 52周内股价走势图 粉笔 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 考试错期扰动收入，小班运营持续发力 2024.07.26 小班模型跑通持续发力，盈利能力提升 2024.03.30 成本结构持续优化 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·支援服务(HS) 粉笔（02469.HK） 2024 年中报点评：收入端承压，经调整净利 润受益于经营效率提升仍实现同比+21% 2024 年 08 月 26 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2828 | 3021 | 3032 | 3319 | 3634 | | 同比(%) | (17.71) | 6.84 | 0.35 | 9.48 | 9.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (2,087.35) | 188.57 | 451.92 | 550.98 | 664.95 | | 同比(%) | (2.02) | 109.03 | 139.66 | 21.92 | 20.69 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion RMB for 1H24, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit increased by 21% to 349 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 21.4% [3][4][6]. - The product matrix has been enhanced, integrating online and offline advantages, with total training service revenue at 1.38 billion RMB, a decline of 3.1% [3][4]. - The average monthly active users of the company's app reached 9.2 million, showing no growth [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 1H24 was 1.63 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 883 million RMB and a gross margin of 54.2%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. - The breakdown of revenue includes online learning products at approximately 65 million RMB, large class training at 266 million RMB, small class training at 1.03 billion RMB, and other training courses at 23 million RMB [4][6]. - The company expects revenue growth of 2.7% in 2024, with adjusted net profit projected to grow by 24% [6][8]. Cost and Efficiency - The company has optimized employee efficiency, with a total of 3,145 full-time instructors, a decrease of 80, and an average revenue per employee of 216,000 RMB, down 8% [3][6]. - Sales expenses increased by 5.3% to 320 million RMB, while management expenses decreased by 38.3% to 198 million RMB [6][8]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is valued using a PE method, with a target PE range of 15-18x for 2024, corresponding to a market value range of 9-10.8 billion HKD, and a reasonable price range of 4.0-4.8 HKD [6][8]. - Compared to peers, the company's PE for 2024 is estimated at 21.52, indicating a competitive valuation [7].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Viewpoints - Revenue decline in H1 2024 primarily due to scheduling conflicts between public institution and civil service exams, impacting enrollment numbers [2] - Net profit increased significantly due to improved gross margin, reduced administrative expenses, and other income gains [2] - Adjusted net profit margin rose to 21.4%, up 4.3 percentage points, driven by reduced management expenses and other income turning positive [3] - AI technology adoption enhanced teaching efficiency, contributing to a 3.3 percentage point increase in gross margin to 54.2% [3] - Contract liabilities grew by 12.7% to 212 million yuan, providing a solid foundation for future education business [3] Business Performance - Training services and book sales revenues decreased by 3% each to 1.379 billion yuan and 252 million yuan respectively in H1 2024 [3] - Small class training (OMO) revenue increased by 8% to 1.026 billion yuan, accounting for 74% of total training revenue [3] - Online learning platform's average monthly active users remained stable at 9.2 million, with a slight increase of 100,000 users quarter-over-quarter [3] Financial Metrics - H1 2024 revenue/net profit/adjusted net profit/operating cash flow were 1.63 billion yuan/278 million yuan/349 million yuan/235 million yuan, with year-over-year changes of +3.10%/+240.90%/+21.20%/-37.46% [2] - Gross margin for training services and book sales improved to 57.9% and 33.6% respectively, up 4.0 and 0.8 percentage points [3] - Adjusted net profit margin increased to 21.4%, up 4.3 percentage points, primarily due to reduced management expenses and other income turning positive [3] Future Outlook - Potential for market share gains, price increases in large class training, and further penetration in small class training [4] - AI technology expected to further enhance teaching and after-class service efficiency, offering significant cost-saving opportunities [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 adjusted downward to 3.034 billion yuan/3.323 billion yuan/3.646 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit forecasts revised to 552 million yuan/646 million yuan/740 million yuan [4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 粉笔(2469.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 范欣悦 uthor教育人服 ] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------------| | 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 | 127号金隅大厦 | | B座 | | | 邮编：100031 | | [Table_Title] 中报利润表现靓丽，盈利能力显著提升 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：24H1 ummar，公司实现收入 y] 16.3 亿元、同减 3.1%，净利润 2.78 亿元、同 增 240.9%，经调整净利润 3.49 亿元、同增 21.2%。 点评： ➢ 事业单位考试错期影响收入。24H1 公司收入略有下滑 ...