Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's electricity consumption structure is undergoing a milestone change, with the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption accounting for 50% of the marginal increase, leading to a significant decrease in the correlation between electricity demand and economic growth [1] - The elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption has increased from around 1 to 1.3-1.4 since 2018, indicating a shift in the electricity consumption structure, with the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption becoming more prominent [1] - The peak pressure for thermal power from renewable energy substitution may have already passed, with coal prices expected to rebound and establish a new bottom at 620-650 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption growth was only 2.5%, primarily due to a warm winter affecting urban and rural residential electricity consumption, which grew only 1.5% compared to 10.6% in 2024 [2] - The recovery of urban and rural residential electricity consumption in April and May indicates that Q1 may represent the bottom for annual electricity consumption growth [2] - The mid-term pressure on thermal power is expected to peak in 2025 due to the historical high of renewable energy installations in 2024 and the impact of new policies on solar power [2] Group 3 - The coal market's fundamentals are becoming clearer, with prices starting to rise as of June 20, reflecting an improvement in the supply-demand balance since May [3] - The overall coal supply is expected to decrease slightly throughout the year, with domestic production showing a significant decline in April and May compared to Q1 [3] - The coal price is anticipated to rebound during the summer peak electricity demand, establishing a bottom at 620-650 yuan/ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the securities industry significantly supported the development of the real economy, with A-share equity underwriting amounting to over 700 billion yuan, while the competitive landscape among leading brokers has changed due to strategic mergers and consolidations [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Underwriting Performance - The total A-share equity underwriting amount for brokers reached 709.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, driven by major banks completing significant A-share stock issuances [2]. - Guotai Junan, resulting from a strategic merger, led the underwriting scale with 123.38 billion yuan, surpassing the traditional leaders "Three Zhong and One Hua" [2][3]. - The top five brokers accounted for 68% of the total equity underwriting market share, highlighting the continued prominence of leading firms [2]. Group 2: IPO and Refinance Underwriting - The total underwriting amount for IPOs was 38.00 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 8.43 billion yuan [2]. - In the refinancing sector, brokers underwrote a total of 641.58 billion yuan in private placements, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities taking the top spots [3]. - The competition in the convertible bond market intensified, with total underwriting reaching 30.28 billion yuan, led by CITIC Securities [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The revenue from investment banking services showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 5.39% in the first quarter [4]. - Analysts expect that the deepening reforms in the capital market will enhance the activity of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, contributing to the recovery of investment banking services [4][5]. - The concentration of investment banking business is anticipated to increase further, particularly among leading brokers with superior resources and service capabilities [5].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and fluctuated, while the CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Index fell by 0.22% to 1364.72 points, with a trading volume of 16.31 billion yuan [1] - The CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Index has increased by 2.69% in the past month, 2.65% in the past three months, and decreased by 3.68% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies related to state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, selected based on profitability, growth potential, and shareholder return levels [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Index are: China Pacific Insurance (8.35%), Guotai Junan Securities (6.09%), Shanghai Airport (5.77%), Pudong Development Bank (5.21%), Shanghai Electric (3.94%), Shanghai Bank (3.89%), Sheneng Co. (3.09%), SAIC Motor (3.05%), Orient Securities (3.04%), and Zhongwei Company (2.97%) [1] - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - The industry breakdown of the index includes: Financials (29.24%), Industrials (23.15%), Consumer Discretionary (11.59%), Real Estate (10.04%), Information Technology (7.45%), Healthcare (6.82%), Communication Services (5.48%), Utilities (3.09%), Consumer Staples (1.70%), and Materials (1.45%) [2] Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample adjustments, which are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [2] - Public funds tracking the Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Index include: Huatai-PineBridge CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises ETF Link A, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises ETF Link C, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises ETF [2]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 國泰海通證券股份有限公司(「本公司」) 呈交日期： 2025年7月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 說明 | A股於上海證券交易所上市(證券代號: 601211) | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份） ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年6月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 國泰海通證券股份有限公司(「本公司」) 呈交日期: 2025年7月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02611 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,505,759,848 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,505,759,848 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,505,759,848 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,505,759,848 | | 2. 股份分類 | ...

公司名稱： 國泰海通證券股份有限公司(「本公司」) 呈交日期： 2025年7月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 說明 | A股於上海證券交易所上市(證券代號: 601211) | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份） ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.40%,成交量6.89万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为2560手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交7.43万手，比上一日减少7349手。全合约前20席位多头持仓11.81万手，比上一日增加3700 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.36万手，比上一日增加3656手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓25049、国泰君安，总持仓18711、东证期货，总持仓13132；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓15270、银河期货，总持仓14229、中信期货，总持仓13227； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓6843、增仓561，国泰君安、持仓14742、增仓544，东证期货、持 仓12389、增仓288；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓20511、减仓-148，宏源期货、持仓3727、减仓-96，海通期货、持 仓1702、减仓-13； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓14440、增仓1353，中信期货、持仓10524、增仓971，西部期货、 ...

Core Insights - The main contract for caustic soda (2509) closed at a price increase of 3.19% as of July 2, with a trading volume of 610,800 contracts and a net short position of 12,406 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all caustic soda contracts reached 728,800 contracts, an increase of 33,700 contracts from the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 159,400 contracts, a decrease of 1,223 contracts, while short positions totaled 171,300 contracts, a decrease of 4,793 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (21,925 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (13,301 contracts), and CITIC Futures (12,318 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by Guotai Junan (24,831 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (15,984 contracts), and Huatai Futures (11,711 contracts) [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (9,862 contracts, an increase of 2,105), Fangzheng Futures (6,164 contracts, an increase of 1,321), and Guotai Junan (12,113 contracts, an increase of 1,311) [1]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from Huatai Futures (3,793 contracts, a decrease of 3,836), Galaxy Futures (6,399 contracts, a decrease of 722), and Yong'an Futures (4,129 contracts, a decrease of 717) [1]. Summary of Changes - The top three increases in short positions were from Dongfang Caifu (3,619 contracts, an increase of 1,135), Zhongtai Futures (3,685 contracts, an increase of 996), and CITIC Futures (7,465 contracts, an increase of 950) [1]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from Zheshang Futures (3,481 contracts, a decrease of 3,495), Guotai Junan (18,115 contracts, a decrease of 3,050), and Yong'an Futures (2,391 contracts, a decrease of 1,030) [1].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约玻璃2509,涨跌+6.48%,成交量366.11万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为156018手。 玻璃期货全合约总计成交411.04万手，比上一日新增232.35万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓103.42万手，比上一日增加2.95万手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓122.23万手，比上一日减少7.38万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓124331、中信期货，总持仓82318、东证期货，总持仓81864；空头前三席 位为国泰君安，总持仓239142、银河期货，总持仓110165、中信期货，总持仓105614； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓80519、增仓36962，国泰君安、持仓96350、增仓13492，华泰期 货、持仓45134、增仓8535；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓34592、减仓-18049，东方财富、持仓27687、减仓-17627， 广发期货、持仓25401、减仓-15653； 2025年7月2日玻璃主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) ...

| | | | | 2025年7月2日氧化铝全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 壇减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | J | 国泰君安 | 71,284 | 26,890 | 国泰君安 | 31,163 | 4,655 | 国泰君安 | 45,194 | -3,239 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 70,432 | 24,480 | 东证期货 | 23,702 | 2,854 | 银河期货 | 28,196 | 6,998 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 56,754 | 9,134 | 永安期货 | 16,940 | 1,955 | 东证期货 | 20,271 | -3,732 | | 4 | 银河期货 | 34,351 | 17,819 | 东吴期货 | 16.404 | -414 | 申万期货 | 16,136 | 116 | | 5 | 华泰期货 | 32,507 | 9,297 | 走 ...