Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 70% to 80% probability of Green Town Services (02869) stock price rising in the next 15 days, with an upgraded rating to "Overweight" and a target price of HKD 5.18 [1] Financial Performance - Green Town Services reported a solid performance in the first half of the year, with core profit increasing by 25% year-on-year on a comparable basis, making it one of the fastest-growing companies in the property management sector [1] - The strong profit margin expansion exceeded expectations, indicating robust operational execution under the new management team [1] Market Outlook - The performance results enhance visibility for annual profit growth and may lead to upward revisions in market forecasts [1] - The company is on track to expand with new contracts worth RMB 1.5 billion [1]

大摩发布研报称，预计绿城服务(02869)股价未来15天上升，发生几率料达70%至80%。对该股评级增 持，目标价5.18港元。报告指，绿城服务上半年业绩稳固，在可比基础上核心溢利同比增长25%，是物 业管理板块中增长率最高的公司之一，主要由于利润率扩张较预期强劲。该行认为业绩证明公司在新管 理团队的领导下执行力强劲，增加了全年盈利增长的能见度，并可能导致市场预测上调。此外，公司亦 正按计划扩展15亿元人民币的新合约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported slightly better-than-expected performance for 1H25, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from basic property management services, which accounts for about 70% of total revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the overall growth foundation [1] - The new annualized contract income reached 1.52 billion yuan, comparable to the same period last year, with a 5 percentage point increase in the proportion of core city projects to 95% [1] - The average property fee for new contracts was 3.7 yuan per square meter per month, compared to 3.2 yuan for existing contracts [1] - The gross profit margins for property services, park services, and consulting services increased by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall gross profit margin [1] - Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the expense ratio down by 1.3 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash (including cash and time deposits) of approximately 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Trade and other receivables grew by 12% year-on-year, while operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company is expected to maintain an active shareholder return policy, with a payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past two years and a cumulative repurchase amount of approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company aims for quality growth and cash profit, with an annualized churn rate of 4-5% over the past three years, and is expected to continue improving profit margins [2] - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with core operating profit expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.83 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively [2] - The target price has been raised by 8% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a 19 times target P/E ratio for 2025, indicating an 18% upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. The growth rate of net profit outpaced that of revenue mainly due to improved gross margin and decreased sales and management expense ratios [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the management expense ratio was 6.4%, down 1.0 percentage points [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s property management service revenue reached 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The managed area reached 540 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on prudent expansion and enhancing the quality of its project reserves by deepening its presence in high-quality existing projects and actively exiting non-core cities and projects with delivery risks [2]. Professional Services - The company’s park services and consulting services showed mixed revenue performance in the first half of 2025, with park service revenue at 1.36 billion yuan, down 6.0%, and consulting service revenue at 1.30 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6%. However, both services saw improvements in gross margins, with park services at 26.6% and consulting services at 33.1%, up 3.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [3]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast and buy rating, predicting EPS of 0.30, 0.35, and 0.39 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 15.4 times for 2025. The company’s high growth in performance and steady improvement in operational quality and efficiency support this outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its profit forecast for Greentown Service (02869), expecting a 15% year-on-year growth in core operating profit for 2025-26, reaching 1.83 billion and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a 17% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 920 million and 1.07 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 results with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase; core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, a 25% increase; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a 23% increase, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - The basic property management business, accounting for about 70% of revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the company's overall growth foundation [3] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - Profit margins across various business segments improved, with property services, park services, and consulting services' gross margins increasing by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point increase in overall gross margin [4] - Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the expense ratio declining by 1.3 percentage points [4] Group 3: Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has ample cash on hand, with broad cash (cash and time deposits) amounting to 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year; trade and other receivables grew by 12% [5] - Operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [5] Group 4: Strategic Development and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for quality development, leveraging its brand advantage to expand quality projects while actively updating its project portfolio, maintaining a 4-5% annual attrition rate over the past three years [6] - The company continues to implement an active shareholder return policy, maintaining a target of operating cash flow covering net profit by more than one time, with a payout ratio exceeding 70% in the past two years and a cumulative repurchase amount of approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its profit forecast for Greentown Service (02869), expecting a 15% year-on-year growth in core operating profit for 2025-26, reaching 1.83 billion and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a 17% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 920 million and 1.07 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 25%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 23% [2] Business Segments - The basic property management segment, accounting for about 70% of revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the company's overall growth foundation. The newly developed annualized contract revenue reached 1.52 billion yuan, comparable to the same period last year, with a 5 percentage point increase in the proportion of core city projects to 95% [3] Profitability and Cost Management - Profit margins across various business segments improved, with property services, park services, and consulting services' gross margins increasing by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall gross margin. Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9%, with the expense ratio down by 1.3 percentage points [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has ample cash on hand, with broad cash (cash and time deposits) amounting to 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year. Trade and other receivables grew by 12%, while operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [5] Long-term Development Strategy - The company is expected to continue leveraging its quality brand advantage, expanding quality projects, and actively updating its project portfolio, maintaining quality growth and cash profits. The ongoing reform and efficiency improvement process is anticipated to continue, with a sustained upward trend in profit margins [6] Shareholder Return Policy - With sufficient cash reserves and good collection conditions, the company aims to maintain a target of operating cash flow covering net profit by more than one time. The company is expected to uphold its proactive shareholder return strategy, having maintained a payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past two years, along with ongoing share buybacks, totaling approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that Greentown Service's stock price will rise in the next 15 days, with a probability between 70% and 80%, and maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 5.18 [1] Financial Performance - Greentown Service's half-year performance is solid, with core profit increasing by 25% year-on-year on a comparable basis, making it one of the fastest-growing companies in the property management sector [1] - The strong profit margin expansion exceeded expectations, indicating robust execution under the new management team [1] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the performance enhances visibility for annual profit growth, which may lead to upward revisions in market forecasts [1] - The company is on track to expand with new contracts worth HKD 1.5 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][6][9] Core Insights - The company's profit growth outpaced revenue growth, indicating improved management efficiency. The core operating profit for H1 2025 was 1.074 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, while revenue was 9.289 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross margin and net margin improved to 19.2% and 5.6%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points. The management expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.6% [6][7] - The company reported a cash balance of 4.048 billion, a decrease of 16.6% from the end of 2024, while trade receivables increased by 26.1% to 7.030 billion [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.289 billion, with a core operating profit of 1.074 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [6][9] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 923 million, 1.030 billion, and 1.135 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.33, and 0.36 [6][9] Property Management - The property management revenue for H1 2025 was 6.633 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue. The gross margin for this segment improved to 15.3% [7] - The managed area reached 536 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, while the reserved area decreased by 2.9% due to the exit from non-core cities and projects with delivery risks [7] Service Segments - The park service revenue for H1 2025 was 1.357 billion, down 6.0%, but the gross margin increased by 3.2 percentage points to 26.6%. The decline in revenue was attributed to the classification of lower-margin hard decoration business as a joint venture [8] - Consulting services generated revenue of 1.299 billion, a slight increase of 0.6%, with a gross margin of 33.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a core operating profit growth of 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a clear trend of profit improvement [1] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a gross profit of 1.8 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin improved to 19.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [3] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - The company's revenue from property management, park services, and consulting services for the first half of 2025 was 6.63 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, a decline of 6.0%, and an increase of 0.6% [2] - Property management accounted for 71.4% of total revenue, providing stable support for the company's performance [2] - The revenue from home life services within park services decreased by 53.8% due to the exclusion of a subsidiary from consolidation, but other segments showed positive growth [2] Expansion and Project Quality - The company focused on core regions for expansion, achieving a saturated revenue of 1.52 billion yuan from new property management projects, with non-residential projects making up 52.5% [2] - The average management fee for new projects was 3.7 yuan/month/㎡, indicating high project quality [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the total managed area reached 540 million square meters, with the Yangtze River Delta region accounting for 58.8% of the managed area and 69.7% of revenue [2] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.5%, with property management, park services, and consulting services gross margins at 15.3%, 26.6%, and 33.1% respectively [3] - The management expense ratio decreased to 6.4%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the profit improvement trend [3] - The company repurchased 17.17 million shares, representing 0.5% of the issued shares, and has a high historical dividend payout ratio [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 940 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 12 times [4][3] - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand reputation and competitive edge in new project expansion, highlighting the gradual improvement in profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend [3][29]. - The report highlights that the performance of quality companies in the real estate sector remains resilient despite overall industry pressure, with some companies showing significant growth in profits [3][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for new development tracks in the housing market, driven by policies aimed at improving housing quality and affordability, particularly in core cities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.834 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 11.7%. However, this is a decline of 37.1% compared to the average weekly transaction volume in 2024 [4][6]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August 2025 decreased by 20.9% compared to August 2024, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 19.9% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a decline of 32.7% [6][7]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.081 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.2%. Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions in August 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [11][12]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 810,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.81. The average monthly inventory clearance period increased to 22 months [19][20]. - The report notes that the overall financing scale for real estate companies continues to grow, with July 2025 seeing bond financing of 71.39 billion yuan, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [29][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market through effective macro policies, including the issuance of special bonds for land acquisition and urban renewal projects [29][31]. - It highlights various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing accessibility and affordability, such as the introduction of "housing vouchers" in Guangzhou and adjustments to housing fund policies in Beijing and Kunming [29][31]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of key real estate companies, noting that while some companies like Vanke and Greentown China faced profit declines, others like Jianfa International and Greentown Services reported profit growth [3][29]. - It also mentions the successful issuance of bonds by several companies, indicating a positive trend in financing activities within the sector [3][29].