Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Greentown Service (02869) [3][8] Core Views - Greentown Service has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and core operating profit rising by 25.3%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company is focusing on quality improvement and operational efficiency, which has led to an increase in gross margin and net profit margin [8] - The company is expected to continue its stable expansion through third-party services, with a strong focus on the Yangtze River Delta region [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Greentown Service are as follows: - 2023: 17,393 million yuan - 2024: 17,893 million yuan - 2025E: 19,377 million yuan - 2026E: 21,270 million yuan - 2027E: 22,938 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2023: 17.1% - 2024: 2.8% - 2025E: 8.3% - 2026E: 9.8% - 2027E: 7.8% [7][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 605 million yuan - 2024: 785 million yuan - 2025E: 922 million yuan - 2026E: 1,053 million yuan - 2027E: 1,184 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023: 10.6% - 2024: 29.7% - 2025E: 17.4% - 2026E: 14.3% - 2027E: 12.4% [7][9] Operational Highlights - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the managed area reached 536 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [8] - The company has a reserve area of 347 million square meters, down 2.9% year-on-year, due to a strategic withdrawal from risk-prone projects [8] - The satisfaction rate of services is reported at 93 points, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, with a project renewal rate of 96.5%, up 2.4 percentage points [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 9.288 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% compared to RMB 8.753 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Property services remained the largest source of revenue and profit for the company, generating RMB 6.633 billion, which accounted for 71.4% of total revenue, up 10.2% from RMB 6.019 billion in 2024 [1] - Revenue from park services was RMB 1.357 billion, making up 14.6% of total revenue, which is a decline of 6.0% from RMB 1.443 billion in 2024 [1] - Consulting services generated RMB 1.299 billion, representing 14.0% of total revenue, with a slight increase of 0.6% from RMB 1.291 billion in 2024 [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit reached RMB 1.808 billion, an increase of 8.9% from RMB 1.661 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 19.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from 19.0% in the previous year [1] - Core operating profit was RMB 1.074 billion, reflecting a growth of 25.3% compared to RMB 0.857 billion in 2024 [1] Net Profit - The company's net profit for the reporting period was RMB 0.629 billion, which is a 22.2% increase from RMB 0.514 billion in the same period of 2024 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a profit of RMB 628.8 million, representing a 22.2% increase compared to RMB 514.4 million in the same period of 2024 [2] - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 9.288 billion, a 6.1% increase from RMB 8.753 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Property services generated the largest revenue and profit, amounting to RMB 6.633 billion, which accounted for 71.4% of total revenue, up 10.2% from RMB 6.018 billion in 2024 [1] - Park services revenue was RMB 1.357 billion, representing 14.6% of total revenue, down 6.0% from RMB 1.443 billion in 2024 [1] - Consulting services revenue reached RMB 1.299 billion, making up 14.0% of total revenue, a slight increase of 0.6% from RMB 1.291 billion in 2024 [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit for the period was RMB 1.808 billion, an 8.9% increase from RMB 1.661 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 19.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from 19.0% in 2024 [2] - Core operating profit was RMB 1.074 billion, reflecting a 25.3% growth from RMB 857 million in the same period of 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Service (02869.HK) reported a revenue of RMB 9.289 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The company's profit attributable to equity shareholders was RMB 613 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [1] - The board decided not to declare any interim dividend for the period [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 9.289 billion, up 6.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders reached RMB 613 million, marking a 22.6% increase year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.195, calculated based on a weighted average of 3,144,374,000 ordinary shares during the period [1] ESG and Community Engagement - The company collaborated with international pioneers to promote ESG initiatives and green low-carbon development [1] - The "Happiness Fund" platform established nearly 100 happiness houses as part of its community engagement efforts [1] - The company participated in environmental activities, including planting trees to combat desertification and protecting rare bird species [1] Talent Development - The company implemented management trainee programs such as "City Building, New Vitality," resulting in the recruitment of 131 outstanding young managers from renowned universities [1] - Over 8,000 new certified professionals were added to the workforce, with a project manager certification rate of 97.8% [1] - These initiatives are aimed at supporting high-quality development and transitioning from residential to non-residential services [1]

Core Insights - Greentown Service (02869) reported a mid-year performance for 2025 with revenue of approximately RMB 9.289 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - Gross profit reached RMB 1.808 billion, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.5%, up 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Core operating profit was approximately RMB 1.074 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.3% [1] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders was around RMB 613 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.42% [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.195 [1] Revenue and Profitability - The increase in core operating profit is attributed to the company's enhanced revenue quality management and effective measures for improving quality and efficiency, as well as cost control [1] - The main business profitability continues to improve [1]

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司（「聯 交 所」）對 本 公 告 之 內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示 概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. 綠城服務集團有限公司 （根據開曼群島法律註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：2869） 截 至2025年6月30日 止 六 個 月 未 經 審 核 中 期 業 績 公 告 及 變 更 公 司 秘 書 及 法 律 程 序 代 理 人 綠 城 服 務 集 團 有 限 公 司（「本 公 司」）董 事（「董 事」）會（「董 事 會」）欣 然 公 佈 本 公 司 及 其 附 屬 公 司（統 稱「本 集 團」、「集 團」）截 至2025年6月30日 止 六 個 月（「期 內」）的 未 經 審 核 綜 合 財 務 業 績，連 同 截 至2024年6月30日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The property service industry is facing significant challenges due to a deep adjustment in the real estate market, with a notable decline in IPO activity and increasing financial asset impairment issues affecting profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the overall revenue growth rate of the property service industry is expected to decline, with significant performance differentiation among companies [3]. - The first half of 2025 has seen a drastic drop in IPO activity within the property sector, with only Aolian Services submitting a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The ongoing economic downturn and declining housing asset values have led to a "discounted property fee for vacant houses" trend, with multiple cities announcing reductions in property fees for unoccupied homes [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index has increased by 11%, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 20%, indicating that property management stocks are underperforming compared to the broader market [4]. - The average stock price increase for 40 tracked Hong Kong property companies was 7.71% in the first half of 2025, with a significant recovery in valuation, as the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) rose from 5.09 to 10.62 [4]. - Notable stock price increases were observed in companies such as Zhong An Smart Life (+108.38%), Deshan Property Investment Services (+39.29%), and China Resources Mixc Life (+35.96%) [4]. Group 3: Market Capitalization and M&A Activity - As of June 30, 2025, there are 38 Hong Kong property companies with a market capitalization of less than 1 billion HKD, representing 63% of the listed property companies [5]. - The number of companies engaging in share buybacks has decreased from 10 to 8, with a total buyback amount of 234 million HKD, down 35.24% year-on-year [5]. - The property sector has seen a decline in merger and acquisition activity, with only 18 public M&A cases reported in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at expanding business scale and consolidating regional advantages [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is at a historical low in holdings, combined with interest rate cuts, which enhances the attractiveness of investments in this sector [4] - The report highlights that the fund holdings in real estate stocks have reached a historical low, with a significant drop in market value from 14.1 billion to 3 billion, a decrease of 80% [19] - The report identifies several driving factors, including low fund holdings, global policy cycles, and high base pressure in Q4 2025, which necessitate further policy support [5] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Heavyweight Stock Analysis: Historical Low Holdings - The number of funds holding real estate stocks has reached a five-year low, with a decline from 372 funds in Q4 2020 to 194 funds in Q4 2023 [13] - The total market value of funds holding real estate stocks has decreased significantly, reaching a historical low of 3 billion by H1 2025 [19] - The report notes that the proportion of funds overweight in real estate stocks has remained around 55% over the past five years, indicating a stable but low allocation [23] 2. Impact of US Rate Cuts on Chinese Real Estate Stocks - The report discusses the correlation between US interest rate cuts and the valuation recovery of Chinese real estate stocks, suggesting that these cuts can alleviate pressure on the Chinese yuan and provide opportunities for local rate cuts [56] - It emphasizes that the US rate cuts can improve the financing environment for Chinese real estate companies, thereby enhancing their credit profiles and market valuations [58] - The report anticipates a 92.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which could further influence the Chinese real estate market positively [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious but potential investment opportunity as the sector adjusts to current market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "W-shaped" bottoming process, with new construction expected to show a trend of rising and then falling in the second half of the year, with the peak likely approaching zero growth [2][39]. - The overall development investment is under pressure, with July's investment amount showing a year-on-year decline of 17.0%, reflecting weaker construction intensity due to declining sales market heat [2][38]. - The funding chain index for the real estate sector has slightly improved but remains at historically low levels, indicating potential future improvements in the financial situation of some companies [2][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction Data - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new housing sales area was -7.8%, continuing a trend of low market activity since May [13][14]. - The total sales area for the first seven months of 2025 was 515.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.0% [9][14]. - The new construction area in July saw a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a cumulative decline of 19.4% for the first seven months [2][39]. Price Trends - The new home price index for 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 0.31% in July, with significant drops in second-tier cities [10][11]. - The average price of new homes in July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates is a key observation point for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as potential investment opportunities [37][38].