Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13% in 2023, despite a decline of 4.3 percentage points from 2022 [6][8] - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales amount of 301.1 billion RMB, with a slight increase in sales area to 15.47 million square meters [7][8] - The financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest cost dropping from 4.4% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023, indicating a stable debt structure [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 128.15 billion RMB - 2023A: 131.95 billion RMB - 2024E: 136.10 billion RMB - 2025E: 139.31 billion RMB - 2026E: 142.26 billion RMB - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 2.58 billion RMB - 2023A: 3.09 billion RMB - 2024E: 3.44 billion RMB - 2025E: 3.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 3.74 billion RMB - EPS Forecast: - 2024E: 1.36 RMB - 2025E: 1.43 RMB - 2026E: 1.48 RMB [4][11][12] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue to perform well in core cities, leveraging its strong shareholder background and product reputation to achieve stable growth [8][9] - The report predicts a decline in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the industry, leading to the downgrade of the rating [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.43 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 35.2% [5] - The company has a strong financial position with cash reserves of 73.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net cash inflow from operating activities of 23 billion RMB, up 57.5% year-on-year [5][21] Revenue Performance - The company's main business revenue reached 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, with a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year [5][9] - The revenue from development business was 120.58 billion RMB, a 2.6% increase, while the revenue from construction management business grew by 28.0% to 3.14 billion RMB [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 was 13.0%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.1%, down 1.9 percentage points [11][16] - The return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.0 percentage points to 8.6% [16] Debt and Financing - The company has a total interest-bearing debt of 146.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with a financing cost reduced to 4.3% [5][21] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio is 2.3X, indicating a strong liquidity position [18] Sales and Market Position - The total contract sales for 2023 were 301.1 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.3%, with self-invested projects contributing 194.3 billion RMB, down 8.7% year-on-year [5][21] - The company maintained a strong market position in high-tier cities, with 86% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities [5] Land Acquisition and Development - The company added 38 new projects in 2023, with a total construction area of approximately 5.57 million square meters, a 36.5% increase year-on-year [5][23] - The land acquisition amount was 59.5 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 30.6% [5][23] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 4% in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 2% [6][7] - The company aims to maintain its sales target of 301.1 billion RMB for 2024, with a focus on high-quality projects [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 11, compared to the current price of HKD 6.24 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 131.38 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, and a net profit of CNY 3.12 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year [2]. - Despite revenue and profit growth, the gross margin remains under pressure, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13% and a property sales gross margin of 11.3%, down 5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The company focuses on core cities and high equity ratio investment strategies, maintaining an advantageous land reserve structure [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's self-invested project sales amounted to CNY 194.3 billion, a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year, with expectations to maintain around CNY 190 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - The company’s land acquisition in 2023 totaled CNY 59.5 billion, with an equity ratio of approximately 74%, an increase of 5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The average financing cost for the company in 2023 was 4.3%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous year [3]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for 2024 is CNY 137.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [4]. - The estimated net profit for 2024 is CNY 3.20 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.3% compared to 2023 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be CNY 1.26, CNY 1.41, and CNY 1.31 respectively [3][4].

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃03900 .HK ＃绿dy城Com中pa国ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） 买入 ( i维nve持stS ） dyStockco uggesti d e＃ 合预期，权＃ 益title＃ 业 绩符 提 升有望增厚利润 onC han ge ＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 28 日 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃ ⚫ sum 公ma 司ry＃ 2 023 年业绩符合预期：2023 年，公司实现营收 1313.83 亿元，同比增 司 日期 2024.03.27 长3.3%；因地产行业下行及限价影响令售价低于预期，公司年内继续计提非 跟 收盘价（港元） 6.00 金融资产减值亏损约 13.91 亿元以及预期信用亏损模式下的减值亏损 2.3 亿 踪 总股本（亿股） 25.32 元；综合毛利率也同比下降 4.3 个百分点至 13.0%，其中物业销售毛利率同 总市值（亿港元） 152 比下降5个百分点至11.3%；归母净利润为31.18亿元，同比增长13.1%，主 报 要因汇兑亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth in 2023, with operating income reaching 131.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, net profit decreased by 24.9% to 6.68 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and asset impairment provisions [1]. - The company’s financing channels remain open, with a positive operating cash flow of 23 billion yuan in 2023. The average interest rate for bonds issued was 3.93%, and the overall financing cost decreased by 10 basis points to 4.3% [1]. - The company’s sales performance remains strong, ranking 7th among the top 100 real estate companies in China, with a contract sales amount of 301.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating income of 131.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.1% [2]. - The core net profit remained stable at 6.42 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.0%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous year [1][2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.22 yuan, with projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.24, 1.28, and 1.35 yuan respectively [2][3]. Land Acquisition and Sales Strategy - The company focused on acquiring land in core cities, with 38 new projects added in 2023 and a land acquisition amount of 59.5 billion yuan. The sell-through ratio was 46.6%, ensuring a projected saleable value of 142.5 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s land reserves at the end of 2023 amounted to 37.2 million square meters, with a saleable area of 24.99 million square meters, of which 80% is located in first and second-tier cities [1].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[绿I Tnaf 城bol]e 中_Ti国tle]（ 3900） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 6.00 稳中有升，巩固龙头 2024.03.27 海 ——2023年业绩点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 5.52-10.90 当前股本（百万股） 2,532 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前市值（百万港元） 15,192 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 2023 年公司实现营收和归母净利润的双增，并坚持聚焦收敛的拿地策略，经营稳中 绿城中国 恒生指数 向好； ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][16] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1313.83 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.33%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.92 billion RMB, up 19.63% year-on-year [3][6][7] - The company maintained a strong financial structure with a total debt weighted average interest cost reduced to 4.3% in 2023, down 10 basis points from 2022 [4][13] - The company has a robust land reserve with 168 projects, totaling approximately 37.2 million square meters, with 80% of the value located in first and second-tier cities [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1313.83 billion RMB, with property development revenue at 1205.80 billion RMB, hotel business revenue at 10.46 billion RMB, and project management revenue at 31.35 billion RMB [3][6][7] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 12.99%, a decrease of 4.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 2.35%, up 0.32 percentage points [4][14] Sales and Contracts - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 3011 billion RMB in 2023, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, ranking third in the industry [8][9] - The average selling price for self-invested projects was approximately 28,334 RMB per square meter, maintaining a high industry level [8] Land Reserves and Investment - As of December 31, 2023, the company had a total land reserve of 168 projects, with a total building area of approximately 37.2 million square meters, and 80% of the value located in first and second-tier cities [11][12] - The company actively participated in land auctions in key cities, acquiring 38 new projects with an estimated new value of 1425 billion RMB [11] Management and Profitability - The management business covered 122 cities, with a net profit of 9.7 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.8% [12] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.43 RMB per share for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][6] Core Views - The company has achieved revenue and profit growth against the trend, with self-investment and construction business developing in synergy. The company has abundant land reserves and a high-quality structure, while financing costs continue to decrease [6][7] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 131.38 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion HKD, up 13.1% year-on-year [7][10] - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 3.65 billion HKD, 4.40 billion HKD, and 5.07 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.44, 1.74, and 2.00 HKD [6][10] Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit margin of 13.0% in 2023, down from 17.3% in 2022, while the net profit margin was 5.1% [10] - The company’s cash on hand increased by 3 billion HKD to 73.4 billion HKD by the end of 2023, with a net debt ratio of 63.8% [7][10] - The company’s sales area in 2023 was 15.47 million square meters, with a sales amount of 301.1 billion HKD, representing year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 0.3% respectively [8][10] Business Development - The company’s construction management segment, which holds a 71% stake, has maintained over 20% market share for eight consecutive years, with revenue and net profit growth of 24.3% and 30.8% respectively in 2023 [9] - The company has a strong land reserve distribution in core cities, with 84% of the newly acquired land value located in first and second-tier cities [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the company [3][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][8] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.42 billion RMB, with a minimal increase of 0.05% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.43 RMB per share [5] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 13%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - The total contract sales amount for 2023 was 301.1 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with self-invested project sales amounting to 194.3 billion RMB, down 8.7% [5] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2023 were 73.44 billion RMB, with a total debt of 146.14 billion RMB [6][9] Future Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.28 RMB and 1.40 RMB, respectively, with a new projection for 2026 at 1.53 RMB [8] - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue growth rate of around 3% for the next few years, with net profit growth projected at 4.1% for 2024 [7][10] Debt and Cash Flow - The company’s debt structure is considered reasonable, with 22.3% of total borrowings maturing in the near term [8] - The weighted average interest cost of total borrowings was 4.3% in 2023, a decrease of 10 basis points from 2022 [6]

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月25日 绿城中国（03900.HK） 买入 业绩稳健，持续聚焦 核心观点 公司研究·海外公司财报点评 归母净利增长13%，核心净利持平。2023年公司实现营业收入1313.8亿元， 房地产·房地产开发 同比增长3.3%；归母净利润31.2亿元，同比增长13.1%；核心净利润64.2 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：王粤雷 亿元，同比持平。董事会建议宣派末期股息每股人民币0.43元。 010-88005315 0755-81981019 renhe@guosen.com.cn wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn 销售稳健，权益持续提升。2023年公司实现总销售面积1547平方米，同比 S0980520040006 S0980520030001 增长12.1%；实现总销售金额3011亿元，同比增长0.3%，其中自投销售1943 证券分析师：王静 021-60893314 亿元，归属公司权益金额为1276亿元，同比增长4%，权益比提升至66%， wangjing20@guosen.com.cn 再创新高。公司一、二线销售额占比高达86%，在北京、上海等13个重点城 S0 ...