联邦制药GLP-1/GIP/GCG三靶点受体激动剂UBT251今年4月完成肥胖二期患者招募及5月完成糖尿病招 募，并开始招募代谢相关脂肪性肝病及慢性肾病二期试验患者，进展顺利。另外，管理层指一类创新药 UBT48128目标于2026年上半年提交临床试验申请。同时管理层透露，上半年高栏原料药新产能及内蒙 古原料药产能将于今年10月投产。 该行表示，考虑到公司的中间体及原料药业务已拓展至全球80个地区，因应中间体及原料药最新收入预 测，以及诺和诺德里程碑付款带来的影响，维持"买入"评级，目标价从17港元上调至20港元。 杰富瑞发表研究报告指，联邦制药上半年收入按年增长5%，净利润按年增长27%，剔除业务发展收入 则跌50%，期内中间体及原料药销售分别按年下跌23%及27%，主要受到产品价格下跌所拖累。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in its mid-year results for 2025, with a decline in antibiotic-related revenues but an unexpected strong performance in insulin exports [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1]. - Gross profit for H1 2025 was 3.92 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [1]. - Revenue from intermediates was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year, while raw material drug revenue was 2.53 billion yuan, down 27.0% [1]. - The combined revenue from formulation products and external licensing was 3.98 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 65.9% [1]. Group 2: Product Performance - Revenue from antibiotic formulations, including semi-synthetic penicillins and cephalosporins, totaled 799 million yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [1]. - Insulin products generated 961 million yuan in revenue, marking a substantial increase of 74.5% year-on-year [1]. - The animal health business reported revenue of 565 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [1]. - Other formulations generated 221 million yuan, down 28.9% year-on-year [1]. - External licensing revenue was 1.43 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has a comprehensive layout in the weight loss sector, with successful launches and applications for GLP-1 products [2]. - The company expects to submit clinical applications for its oral GLP-1 drug UBT48128 in 2026, which shows promising preclinical results [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.50 billion, 13.90 billion, and 14.75 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -1.86%, 2.97%, and 6.08% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 2.40 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.74 billion yuan [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.82%, with a total turnover of HKD 124.6 billion in the morning session [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index surged by 3.1%, driven by optimism in the innovative drug sector ahead of the 2025 World Lung Cancer Conference, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Company Performances - Three-Six Pharmaceutical (01530) saw a significant increase of 9.6% [1] - Hengrui Medicine-B (02142) rose by 5.82% [1] - Hutchison China MediTech (00013) increased by 6% [1] - United Laboratories (03933) gained 5% [1] - WuXi Biologics (02269) rose by 4.17% [1] Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Chow Tai Fook (06168) surged over 13% as the gold consumption market enters a peak season, with expectations of inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2] - FunPlus (09890) increased by over 5% after completing a name change and upgrading its overseas brand integration, with a higher proportion of overseas revenue in the first half [2] - Lehua Entertainment (02306) rose by 16%, with a nearly 90% year-on-year increase in interim profit attributable to shareholders, expanding monetization channels for its trendy IP [3] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) increased by 3%, with humanoid robot orders reaching CNY 400 million and securing a USD 1 billion strategic investment from a Middle Eastern fund [4] - Mobi Development (01860) surged over 12%, hitting a historical high with a cumulative increase of over 110% this year [5] - Goldwind Technology (02208) rose over 10%, reaching a new high as the wind power sector experiences accelerated growth, leading the industry in gross margin improvement [5] - Zhongshen Jianye (02503) experienced a significant drop, falling over 74% to a historical low, with a loss of CNY 11.81 million in the first half [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with multiple companies showing substantial stock price increases ahead of the 2025 World Lung Cancer Conference [1] - Notable stock price increases include: 9.55% for 3SBio, 6.25% for Hengrui Medicine, and 5.16% for WuXi Biologics, indicating strong market interest [1] - The upcoming conference in Barcelona is expected to provide new development opportunities and market attention for innovative drug companies through the release of significant new products [1] Group 2 - In the first seven months of the year, China's innovative drug companies have seen a normalization in business development (BD) overseas, with license out amounts nearing $80 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 160% [2] - Analysts suggest that the essence of China's innovative drug overseas expansion is to replace certain ecological niches of foreign biotech companies, potentially leading to new breakthroughs in the global innovative drug industry [2] - The deep participation of Chinese innovative drugs in the global supply chain is expected to benefit significantly from the global innovation cycle [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 聯邦制藥國際控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03933 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 38,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 38,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.61%, with a net profit of 1.894 billion yuan, up 27.02% [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 52.19%, an increase of 5.58 percentage points, while the net profit margin rose to 25.18%, up 4.44 percentage points [1] - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.98, 10.4, and 9.43 times [1] Group 2 - The formulation segment led growth with a revenue increase of 65.9% to 3.979 billion yuan, accounting for 52.9% of total external sales, driven by a 74.5% increase in insulin series revenue [2] - The intermediate segment saw a decline of 23.1% to 1.011 billion yuan, while the raw materials segment decreased by 27.0% to 2.530 billion yuan, representing 13.5% and 33.6% of total external sales respectively [2] - The animal health segment reported a revenue of 565 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, while the health segment is in the early stages of development with revenue of 11.2 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has made significant progress in its formulation product pipeline, with multiple products receiving key approvals, including liraglutide injection and polyethylene glycol eye drops [2] - The animal health segment has obtained registration approvals for six products in Vietnam and Australia, and is advancing the construction of new production facilities expected to generate over 5 billion yuan in annual output once operational [3] - The company has 61 ongoing research projects covering various animal health areas, including treatments for pets, livestock, poultry, and aquaculture [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has lowered the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8% [1] - The earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% [1] - The firm expects a weak price cycle for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients over the next two years [1] Group 2 - The sales of the company in the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB [1] - Core business revenue decreased by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below the firm's expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] - Profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and was below the firm's expectations [1] Group 3 - The firm has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The sales forecast for high-margin insulin products has been increased by 27% to 30%, benefiting from incremental sales due to exports [1] - The company's gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have been noted [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8%, and the earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% due to expected weak pricing cycles for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - The sales forecast for the company has been reduced significantly, reflecting a challenging market environment for its products [1] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downward, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for profitability in the coming years [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The company is expected to see a 27% to 30% increase in sales of high-margin insulin products, benefiting from incremental sales driven by exports [1] - The sales revenue for the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB, but core business revenue fell by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Profitability and Costs - The company's profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and fell short of expectations [1] - The gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have impacted profitability [1] Group 4: Stock Target and Rating - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent surge in the stock prices of innovative pharmaceutical companies in China, with notable increases in companies such as Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec [1] - Foreign investments have intensified in Chinese innovative drug companies, with significant share purchases by entities like the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and BlackRock [1] - GIC increased its stake in Hengrui Medicine by acquiring 40.22 million shares at an average price of 12.7133 HKD per share, raising its ownership from 1.62% to 6.37% [1] Group 2 - The domestic innovative drug sector has experienced rapid growth, with 83 licensing agreements reached this year, totaling approximately 84.53 billion USD, including upfront payments of 4.32 billion USD [2] - The upcoming World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) from September 6-9, 2025, is expected to showcase 35 oral presentations by Chinese scholars, highlighting the clinical data of domestic new drugs [2] - There is optimism regarding the value recovery of core assets in the second half of the year, as noted by Zhongyou Securities [2]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Photovoltaic stocks rose in the morning, with Xinyi Solar (00968) up over 3%, Fuyao Glass (03606) up over 3%, and GCL-Poly Energy (00451) up over 3%. Domestic leading polysilicon companies have raised prices, and the market is focused on the restructuring progress in the polysilicon industry [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) increased by over 5% after announcing the approval of HRS-7172 tablets for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration on September 2 [1] - Qingdao Bank (03866) rose over 2% as its major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 233 million to 291 million shares, recognizing the long-term investment value of the bank's stock [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by over 1%, with a total market value exceeding HKD 100 billion, and the company is accelerating overseas project construction, indicating future growth potential [1] - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) rose over 4%, with management optimistic about the new car market and smooth progress in the company's new energy business [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) increased by over 5% after disclosing its interim performance report, with core products driving growth and accelerating multiple self-immune phase III clinical trials [1] - United Laboratories (03933) rose over 6% after announcing a 27% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders in its half-year results, with key progress in several products in the formulation segment [1] Group 2: U.S. Stocks - NIO (NIO.US) rose 3.13%, with vehicle deliveries in August 2025 reaching 31,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, and total deliveries since 2025 reaching 166,472 units, up 30.0% [3] - Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) fell 2.91% as it plans to list in Hong Kong after passing the hearing [3] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 0.36% after Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy outperformed it in a real-world comparative study [3] - Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) increased by 0.73% after announcing that its drug was approved in Hong Kong for treating recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer [3] - Beike (BEKE.US) rose 4.89% after reporting a 11.3% year-on-year increase in net income for the second quarter, leading multiple institutions to reaffirm a "buy" rating [3] - Gold stocks rose against the trend, with Gold Resource (GORO.US) up 15.80%, Harmony Gold (HMY.US) up 7.53%, and Kinross Gold (KGC.US) up 2.68%, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [3] - Corning (GLW.US) rose 2.15% after UBS raised its target price from $65 to $84 and upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "buy" [4] - Li Auto (LI.US) rose 4.50% as the founder announced plans to fully enter the high-end pure electric SUV market [4]