Core Viewpoint - The financial report of the sports retail giant, Tmall, for the fiscal year 2024/25 shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, indicating challenges faced due to brand dependency and strategic adjustments by key partners [2][6]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the fiscal year reached 27.0129 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% [3][5]. - Net profit was 1.286 billion RMB, down 41.89% year-on-year, marking a five-year low [2][3]. - The gross profit margin was 38.4%, while the operating profit margin was 4.8% [3]. Brand Contribution - Nike and Adidas together contributed over 80% of total revenue, with Nike's sales in Greater China dropping by 17% [2][5]. - Revenue from other brands was 3.5048 billion RMB, accounting for 13% of total revenue, indicating a weak contribution from non-Nike and non-Adidas brands [5]. Strategic Adjustments - Tmall is restructuring its channel strategy, transforming physical stores into "experience centers" and enhancing online presence through WeChat mini-programs, resulting in a significant increase in direct online sales [3][4]. - The company is also diversifying its brand portfolio by partnering with high-end outdoor brands like Norrøna and Soar, aiming to reduce reliance on Nike [4]. Market Challenges - Despite efforts to diversify, Tmall faces challenges in improving short-term performance, particularly with new brands that may struggle against local competition and consumer awareness [5][6]. - The financial report reflects the anxiety of traditional sports retail agents in adapting to brand dependency and channel transformation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.6 for the fiscal year ending February 2026, based on a 16x PE ratio [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to RMB 27.01 billion for FY25, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to RMB 1.286 billion, indicating that profit decline outpaced revenue decline due to high fixed costs associated with offline operations [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company achieved a 20% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow, reaching RMB 3.755 billion, demonstrating strong cash flow management [2][3]. - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 135%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY25, the company’s revenue was RMB 27,013 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 26,438 million for FY26, indicating a further decline of 2.1% [4][11]. - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% due to increased discounting and inventory clearance [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is projected to be RMB 0.21, with a slight increase to RMB 0.22 in FY27 and RMB 0.23 in FY28 [1][4]. Operational Efficiency - The company continues to optimize its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while the sales area decreased by 12.4%, indicating a focus on operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its single-store operational capabilities and plans to open new stores focusing on key brands and specialized categories [3][4]. Market Position - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, saw a revenue decline of 6.1% to RMB 23.31 billion, while other brands experienced a 9.9% drop to RMB 3.50 billion [2][3]. - The company is expanding its partnerships with both international and domestic sports brands, aiming to capture a larger market share as retail consumption improves [3][4].

Group 1: Company Performance - Tmall's revenue for the fiscal year ending February 2025 was 27.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with net profit down 41.9% to 1.29 billion yuan [1] - The main brands (Nike and Adidas) accounted for 86.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, while other brands saw a 9.9% decline [1] - Nike's revenue in the Greater China region fell 17% to $1.73 billion (approximately 12.446 billion yuan), primarily due to a double-digit drop in customer traffic and an aggressive promotional environment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Nike's sales decline in China significantly impacted Tmall's performance, indicating a strong correlation between the two [4] - Tmall is seeking new growth opportunities by introducing high-end running brand SOAR and becoming the exclusive operator for outdoor brand Norrøna in China [5] - The high-end market is becoming increasingly competitive, as evidenced by Arc'teryx's parent company, Amer Sports, reporting a 43.1% increase in sales in the Greater China region [6][7]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue at 27.01 billion RMB, down 6.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.29 billion RMB, down 41.9% [1][2] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135.0%, exceeding the previous year's 100.9% [1][2] - The decline in profit was attributed to a significant drop in gross margin and a slight increase in expense ratio [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue (Nike + Adidas) decreased by 6.1%, while other brand revenue fell by 9.9% [1][2] - Revenue from retail, wholesale, and esports accounted for 85.3%, 14.0%, and 0.2% of total revenue, respectively, with retail and wholesale revenues down 6.8% and 5.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The total number of stores decreased by 18.3%, with a total of 5,020 stores as of February 2025 [2][3] Financial Metrics - Gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, primarily due to increased discounting [2][3] - The expense ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points to 33.2%, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 29.4%, 3.7%, and 0.1%, respectively [2][3] - Inventory decreased by 4.5% to 6 billion RMB, and accounts receivable decreased by 43.4% to 750 million RMB [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs amid weak consumer demand and declining foot traffic [3][4] - The company plans to expand its brand matrix and has become the exclusive operating partner for high-end running brand SOARRunning and top outdoor brand Norrona in China [3][4] - Profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been revised down by 21% and 26%, respectively, with expected EPS of 0.21, 0.23, and 0.26 for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to 27.01 billion RMB and a net profit decline of 41.9% to 1.29 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, with a high dividend payout ratio of 135% [5][10] - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and has accelerated the closure of underperforming stores while expanding its brand portfolio [10] Financial Performance Summary - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue of 27.01 billion RMB, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.29 billion RMB, down 41.9% year-on-year [5][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2025 is 0.21 RMB, with a proposed final dividend of 0.02 RMB and a special dividend of 0.12 RMB, totaling a dividend payout ratio of 135% [5][10] - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the operating margin fell by 3.7 percentage points to 5.9% [6][9] Revenue Breakdown - The main brand revenue (Nike + Adidas) declined by 6.1%, while other brand revenues fell by 9.9% [7] - Retail and wholesale revenues accounted for 85.3% and 14.0% of total revenue, respectively, with retail revenue down 6.8% and wholesale revenue down 5.8% [7] Store Performance - As of February 2025, the company operated 5,020 stores, a net decrease of 18.3% from the previous year, with total sales area down 12.4% but average store area up 7.2% [8] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company reported a 20% increase in operating cash flow to 3.76 billion RMB, with inventory decreasing by 4.5% to 6 billion RMB [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.8, maintaining the "Increase" rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of RMB 27 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, a decline of 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. - The decline in revenue performance was attributed to weak consumer demand and pressure on offline foot traffic, leading to increased promotional efforts and a decrease in profit margins [1]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit, the net cash generated from operating activities grew by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion [2]. - The total number of stores operated by the company decreased by 18.3% to 5,020, with a focus on improving retail service capabilities and store efficiency [3]. - The company is expanding its brand matrix by introducing the high-end running brand SOAR Running to the Chinese market and enhancing its collaboration with the Canadian outdoor brand norda [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was RMB 27 billion, down 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, down 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash and cash equivalents at the fiscal year-end were RMB 2.6 billion, up 32% year-on-year. Operating cash flow increased by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit. The annual dividend payout ratio was 135% [2]. Store Operations - The company operated 5,020 stores at the fiscal year-end, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year. The focus is on enhancing retail service capabilities and improving store efficiency through stricter store opening and renovation criteria [3]. Brand Strategy - The company is introducing SOAR Running to the Chinese market and deepening its partnership with norda, aiming to capture opportunities in the outdoor segment through a comprehensive brand strategy [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for FY26-28 at RMB 26.5 billion, RMB 27.3 billion, and RMB 28.6 billion, respectively. The expected net profits are RMB 1.3 billion, RMB 1.5 billion, and RMB 1.7 billion for the same periods [5].

Core Insights - The collaboration between Meituan Flash and Tmall has significantly boosted the sales of sports products, with instant retail sales doubling and running shoe sales increasing by over 200% compared to the previous year [2] Group 1: Partnership and Sales Growth - Meituan Flash has partnered with Tmall, integrating nearly 2000 stores into its platform, enhancing the availability of sports products for consumers [1] - Tmall has experienced substantial sales growth on Meituan Flash, with winter clothing sales increasing by 110% month-on-month in December 2024 and a 120% increase in sales during the Spring Festival in January 2025 [2] - On May 20, 2025, certain brands operated by Tmall on Meituan Flash saw sales growth exceeding 400% compared to previous periods [2] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Experience Enhancement - There is a strong consumer demand for sports products in scenarios such as business trips, travel, and gifting, which has driven the growth of instant retail [3] - Meituan Flash has developed a comprehensive support mechanism for apparel merchants, enhancing the shopping experience by ensuring inventory data integration and reducing stockout situations [3][4] - The introduction of pre-order functionality has allowed Tmall to meet consumer needs outside of business hours, with pre-orders accounting for over 15% of total orders on Meituan Flash [4]

Core Insights - Adidas and Nike are losing market share in China, with Nike's market share declining by over 3 percentage points in the past five years and Adidas experiencing five consecutive quarters of revenue decline in the Greater China region [1] - The largest sports goods distributor in China, Tmall, reported a revenue drop of 6.69% to 27.013 billion RMB and a net profit decline of 41.89% for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2024 [2][3] - Tmall's revenue from Adidas and Nike still accounted for 86.3% of total revenue, despite a 6.1% decline in revenue from these brands [4] Company Performance - Tmall's revenue for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, was 27.013 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 10.383 billion RMB and an operating profit of 1.593 billion RMB [3] - The main brands (Adidas and Nike) generated 23.311 billion RMB in revenue, down from 24.834 billion RMB the previous year [5] Market Trends - The sports retail industry is undergoing a transformation, with local brands like Anta rapidly gaining market share through national trend marketing [1] - Tmall is shifting its focus towards niche international outdoor brands, signing partnerships with brands like Norrøna and SOAR to diversify its offerings [6][10] - The rise of niche sports brands is seen as an opportunity for Tmall, as traditional sports markets show limited growth [19] Strategic Shifts - Tmall is adopting a multi-brand and multi-channel operational model, transitioning from a traditional distributor to a comprehensive sports retail operator [14] - The company aims to provide full-chain support for new brands, focusing on understanding and positioning them in the Chinese market [16][17] - Tmall's strategy includes targeting high-end outdoor brands, which aligns with the growing interest in outdoor activities among young consumers [21][23] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor sports market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous new brands entering the market [24] - Tmall faces challenges in educating consumers about high-end outdoor brands in a market with a weak outdoor culture [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging a comprehensive retail strategy to address operational challenges and diversify its customer base [5] - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to increased discounts but maintains a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [7] - The core international brand partnerships are gradually recovering, and new brand acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's diversified layout [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.416 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 10.14% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 27,012.90 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.64% [6] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at RMB 1,286 million, down 41.89% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 is estimated at 38.4%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous fiscal year [7] - The company plans to maintain a total dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2024/25, continuing to provide high dividend returns to shareholders [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28,933.20 million in 2024, RMB 27,012.90 million in 2025, and RMB 26,445.63 million in 2026, with respective growth rates of 6.87%, -6.64%, and -2.10% [6] - The projected net profit for the years 2026 to 2028 is RMB 1,416.34 million, RMB 1,670.93 million, and RMB 1,980.06 million, with growth rates of 10.14%, 17.98%, and 18.50% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tmall and Taobao platforms experienced negative growth in various categories in April 2025, with the highest growth seen in Jin Hong Group [7] - Deckers reported a 16.3% revenue increase to $4.986 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue decreased by 4% to $9.504 billion for FY2025, with a net loss of $190 million, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tmall and Taobao platforms saw negative growth across categories in April 2025, with Jin Hong Group showing the highest growth [7] - Deckers' FY2025 revenue grew by 16.3% to $4.986 billion, with operating profit increasing by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin of 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue fell by 4% to $9.504 billion, with a net loss of $190 million, but the loss was less than the previous year [16] - Amphenol's Q1 2025 revenue was $1.473 billion, with a net profit increase of 2539.22% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline in stock performance, with the SW textile and apparel sector down 1.31% [20] - The cotton price index in China increased by 0.29% as of May 23, 2025, while the medium import cotton price index rose by 1.06% [30] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests short-term recommendations for companies with high U.S. revenue exposure and significant prior declines, while mid-term recommendations focus on companies with high overseas exposure [18][19] - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Zhejiang Natural and Kai Run Co., which have favorable market positions [19]