Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1,200.00 [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong sales performance of the company during the Chinese New Year season, with both offline and online sales showing significant growth. The company is expected to exceed market expectations due to the high demand and recent price increases in gold [6][7] - The company is expanding its customer base and enhancing its high-end service capabilities, with a notable increase in membership and strategic store openings planned for 2025 [9][10] - The report anticipates a robust growth trajectory for the company's revenue and net profit over the next few years, with significant increases projected for 2025 to 2027 [11] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 8,506 million - 2025: RMB 26,623 million (up 213%) - 2026: RMB 33,019 million (up 24.02%) - 2027: RMB 40,265 million (up 21.94%) [5] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: RMB 1,473 million - 2025: RMB 4,914 million (up 253.86%) - 2026: RMB 6,213 million (up 26.43%) - 2027: RMB 7,578 million (up 21.97%) [5] - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with a projected EPS of RMB 28.46 for 2025 and RMB 35.98 for 2026 [5] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent increase in gold prices has led to heightened consumer interest, with many brands adjusting their prices, which is expected to further stimulate demand for the company's products [8] - The company is actively expanding its physical presence with new store openings and upgrades to existing locations, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2026 [10] Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price of HKD 1,200, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth potential and premium brand positioning [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of Laopu Gold (06181), which rose over 9% to 859 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.775 billion HKD [1] - The annual Spring Festival consumption season for the SKP system has begun, showing a continued and intensified demand for high-end gold, particularly for Laopu Gold stores in cities like Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, and Wuhan, where long queues were observed [1] - On the opening day of January 24, hundreds of people queued at Laopu Gold stores, and the daily reception limit was reached by 10 AM when all queue numbers were distributed [1] Group 2 - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the 5000 USD per ounce mark, currently reported at 5090.37 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2% [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the rising gold prices and expectations of price increases from Laopu Gold are enhancing consumer purchasing intentions, which may lead to higher demand during the Spring Festival sales [1] - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end supplier of traditional Chinese gold, with established brand premiums and strong growth potential due to its strategic presence in high-value commercial areas and improved service capabilities for high-net-worth clients [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 70.92%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.34%, and Kaisa Group Holdings (01108) at 67.61% [1][2] - The largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days were seen in the following companies: Yingfu Fund (02800) with an increase of 4.041 billion, Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 1.783 billion, and Alibaba - W (09988) with 1.455 billion [1][2] - The largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days were recorded for China Mobile (00941) with a decrease of 2.395 billion, Innovent Biologics (01801) with 589 million, and UBTECH Robotics (09880) with 556 million [1][3] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.843 billion shares, representing 70.92% [2] - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 280 million shares, representing 69.34% [2] - Kaisa Group Holdings (01108) has a holding of 169 million shares, representing 67.61% [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Yingfu Fund (02800) saw an increase of 4.041 billion in holding amount, with a change of 14.9907 million shares [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) increased by 1.783 billion, with a change of 1.8975 million shares [2] - Alibaba - W (09988) increased by 1.455 billion, with a change of 0.8637 million shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) experienced a decrease of 2.395 billion, with a change of -3.01224 million shares [3] - Innovent Biologics (01801) saw a decrease of 589 million, with a change of -0.70319 million shares [3] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) had a decrease of 556 million, with a change of -0.38639 million shares [3]

Group 1 - On January 23, 2026, Alibaba-W (09988), Pop Mart (09992), and Tencent Holdings (00700) ranked as the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with transaction amounts of 4.748 billion, 2.660 billion, and 2.614 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Pop Mart (09992) also held the top three positions, with transaction amounts of 3.322 billion, 1.798 billion, and 1.370 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - In the Southbound Stock Connect, the top active trading companies included Alibaba-W (09988) with a net buy amount of -0.595 billion, Pop Mart (09992) with a net buy amount of +0.480 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with a net buy amount of +0.396 billion [2] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988) had a net buy amount of -0.895 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net buy amount of -0.156 billion, while Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net buy amount of +0.268 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold (06181) increased by 7.05% to HKD 790, with a trading volume of HKD 1.104 billion [5]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - Daiwa revised the earnings forecast for Lao Pu Gold, lowering the 2025 EPS estimate by 5% due to lower gross margin assumptions, while increasing the 2026 EPS estimate by 2% based on higher sales [5]. - The target price was raised from HKD 860 to HKD 880, based on a 20x P/E ratio of the revised 2026 EPS forecast, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Management Insights - Since the industry outlook report released on December 19 last year, Lao Pu Gold's stock price has only risen by 8%, lagging behind the 12% increase in gold prices [5]. - Recent discussions with management reaffirmed the goal of achieving a 40% gross margin this year, although Daiwa expects a half-year decline in gross margin for the second half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Price Expectations and Revenue Risks - Assuming a linear increase of 10% in gold prices by the end of 2026, on top of a 12% increase year-to-date, Lao Pu Gold would need to raise the selling price of gold by over 35% this year to maintain a gross margin above 40% [5]. - This expectation is considered significantly higher than current investor assumptions, indicating substantial upside risk to this year's revenue forecasts if gold prices remain strong [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold (06181) has increased by over 7%, but it has underperformed compared to the gold price increase of 12% since the last industry outlook report released by Daiwa in late December 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lao Pu Gold's stock price has risen by 7.05% to HKD 790, with a trading volume of HKD 750 million [1] - Daiwa projects that Lao Pu Gold needs to increase its gold price per gram by over 35% this year to maintain a gross margin of over 40%, assuming a linear increase in gold prices by 10% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - CICC notes that Lao Pu Gold will launch a new product series, the "Wu Ma" series, in early 2026, effectively combining traditional Chinese cultural elements with exquisite craftsmanship [1] - CICC expects double-digit growth in same-store sales and triple-digit growth in overall sales during the New Year period, supported by the company's brand strength and product quality [1] - For the full year, CICC anticipates that Lao Pu Gold will focus on store optimization domestically, while still having expansion opportunities in overseas markets such as Japan and Singapore [1] Group 3: Management and Operational Insights - The company has improved its management capabilities and accumulated richer experience after navigating the fluctuations in gold prices and changes in the operating environment during 2024-2025 [1] - CICC predicts that there is further potential for gross margin recovery in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold (06181) has increased by over 7%, reaching 790 HKD, with a trading volume of 750 million HKD, but it has underperformed compared to the gold price increase of 12% since the industry outlook report was released in late December 2025 [1] Group 1 - Daiwa's report indicates that Lao Pu Gold's stock price has only risen by 8% since the industry outlook report, lagging behind the gold price increase [1] - The company aims to achieve a gross margin of 40% this year, although Daiwa expects a decline in gross margin in the second half of 2025 [1] - To maintain a gross margin above 40% by the end of 2026, Lao Pu Gold would need to increase the selling price of gold by over 35% this year, assuming a linear increase of 10% on top of the 12% rise in gold prices [1] Group 2 - CICC notes that Lao Pu Gold will launch a new product series, the "Wu Ma" series, in early 2026, effectively combining traditional Chinese cultural elements with exquisite craftsmanship [1] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit and triple-digit year-on-year sales growth during the New Year period for domestic same-store and overall sales, respectively [1] - For the full year, CICC anticipates that Lao Pu Gold will focus on store optimization domestically, while there remains expansion potential in overseas markets such as Japan and Singapore [1] - After experiencing fluctuations in gold prices and changes in the operating environment in 2024-2025, the company's management capabilities have improved, and there is potential for further recovery in gross margin in 2026 [1]

大和表示，假设到2026年底金价在年内迄今上涨12%的基础上再线性上涨10%，且公司承诺维持40%以 上的毛利率，估计老铺黄金需在今年将每克黄金价格售价提高35%以上。认为这远高于当前投资者的预 期，如果金价保持强势，意味着今年预测营收存在显著的上行风险。 大和称，自其去年12月19日发布行业展望报告以来，老铺黄金股价仅上涨了8%，落后于金价12%的涨 幅。根据近期与管理层的电话会议，他们重申了对今年实现40%毛利率的目标，尽管大和预计2025下半 年毛利率将按半年下降。 大和发布研报称，基于较低的毛利率假设，将老铺黄金(06181)2025年预测每股盈利下调5%，但基于更 高的销售额将2026年预测每股盈利上调2%;目标价从860港元上调至880港元，基于修正后的2026年预测 每股盈利的20倍市盈率；维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has adjusted its earnings forecast for Laopu Gold (06181) for 2025 down by 5% based on lower gross margin assumptions, while increasing the 2026 earnings forecast by 2% due to higher sales [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The target price for Laopu Gold has been raised from HKD 860 to HKD 880, based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio of the revised 2026 earnings forecast [1] - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold despite the stock price only increasing by 8% since the industry outlook report was published, lagging behind the 12% increase in gold prices [1] Group 2: Management Insights and Market Expectations - Recent discussions with management reaffirmed the goal of achieving a 40% gross margin this year, although Daiwa anticipates a half-year decline in gross margin for the second half of 2025 [1] - Assuming a linear increase of 10% in gold prices by the end of 2026, on top of a 12% increase observed this year, Laopu Gold would need to raise its gold price per gram by over 35% to maintain a gross margin above 40% [1] - This expectation is considered significantly higher than current investor forecasts, indicating substantial upside risk to this year's revenue projections if gold prices remain strong [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains its EPS forecast for 2025 at 26.8 HKD, raises the 2026 EPS forecast by 3% to 36.9 HKD, and introduces a 2027 EPS forecast of 46.4 HKD, with a target price of 1079.06 HKD, indicating a 58% upside potential [1] - The company has continued to demonstrate strong brand momentum and sales performance since the beginning of 2026, with expectations for good terminal performance due to upcoming peak seasons like the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day [2] - The brand momentum remains strong, with active customer traffic in multiple stores, and the company is optimizing and upgrading stores in key shopping areas, enhancing brand influence and channel quality [3] Group 2 - The company launched a new product series that effectively combines traditional Chinese cultural elements with exquisite craftsmanship, leading to significant year-on-year sales growth during the New Year period [4] - The company is expected to continue optimizing its domestic stores while exploring expansion opportunities in overseas markets such as Japan and Singapore, with management capabilities improving after navigating price fluctuations and operational changes [4] - The rising gold prices are expected to enhance the appeal and scarcity of gold jewelry, leading to increased consumer interest and spending as the industry enters its peak season [5]