Core Viewpoint - The Chinese home appliance industry is at a critical juncture, with the focus shifting towards international expansion as domestic markets reach saturation. The theme for 2026 is "going abroad," which represents a significant opportunity for companies like Haier, Midea, Hisense, and TCL to explore new markets and alleviate overcapacity issues [7]. Group 1: Overseas Market Potential - The global home appliance market is valued at nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating substantial overseas market potential. In 2024, Midea and Haier are projected to generate approximately 270 billion yuan each in appliance revenue, translating to a global market share of only about 6% [9]. - Domestic brands have low market shares in most overseas regions, with Midea and Haier struggling to exceed 10% in many markets. In contrast, their competitors like Samsung and LG dominate the market [11]. - The growth strategy for domestic brands hinges on increasing their market share abroad, transitioning from competing with regional brands to facing established global giants [13]. Group 2: Challenges of Past Success - Historically, Chinese home appliance companies have relied on capacity expansion and brand acquisitions for international growth. However, this simplistic growth model is becoming unsustainable, as evidenced by the significant gap between global manufacturing share (over 45%) and retail share (less than 20%) [17]. - The stagnation in overseas revenue for leading companies like Haier and Midea, which has remained around 50% and 42% respectively for the past five years, highlights the need for a shift in strategy [18]. Group 3: Brand and Channel Development - The success of domestic brands in China was due to a strong competitive edge in product, brand, and channel management. However, these strengths have not yet translated effectively to international markets, where brand recognition and channel control remain challenges [23]. - Building brand recognition in mature markets is particularly difficult, as Chinese brands face trust issues despite offering lower prices compared to Japanese and Korean brands [25]. - The reliance on traditional retail channels in overseas markets poses significant barriers, as these channels are often fragmented and dominated by established players [30]. Group 4: Opportunities for Breakthrough - Technological innovation is seen as a key pathway to overcoming brand premium challenges and building core competitiveness. Chinese companies have increased R&D investments, achieving breakthroughs in areas like robotic vacuum navigation technology [33]. - Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America present significant growth opportunities due to low penetration rates and a favorable demographic profile. These markets are less saturated, allowing for greater brand establishment potential [43]. - The rise of e-commerce in overseas markets offers a new avenue for brand penetration, enabling companies to reach consumers without the need for extensive physical retail investments [45].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market started 2026 with a strong performance, indicating a continuation of the structural bull market from 2025, with a clear investment focus on hard technology sectors like semiconductors, AI, and smart hardware, as well as policy-driven consumption sectors like home appliances and automobiles [1][5]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.76% to close at 26,338.47 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by over 4% to 5,736.44 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.86% to 9,168.99 points [1]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, driven by mergers and acquisitions as well as domestic production initiatives. Notable stock performances included Huahong Semiconductor (up 9.42%), SMIC (up 5.11%), and Jingmen Semiconductor (up 3.53%) [5][6]. - Huahong Semiconductor announced a major asset restructuring plan to acquire a 97.5% stake in Huali Micro for a transaction price of 8.268 billion yuan, alongside plans to raise up to 7.556 billion yuan for technology upgrades [6][7]. Internet Technology Sector - Internet technology stocks rebounded strongly, with Baidu Group rising by 9.53%, NetEase by 6.62%, and Alibaba by 4.34%. A key catalyst was Baidu's announcement of its AI chip subsidiary Kunlun's application for a mainboard listing [9][10]. - Kunlun's expected revenue for 2025 is around 5 billion yuan, with a potential valuation of 3 to 11 billion USD for Baidu's stake in the company [11]. Home Appliances Sector - Home appliance stocks benefited from favorable policies, with Skyworth Group rising by 10.45%, Midea Group by 5.12%, and Haier Smart Home by 4.20%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy to support large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [11][12]. - The new policy is expected to alleviate sales pressure in the short term and benefit leading companies with R&D and brand advantages in the long term [13]. Automotive Sector - Several automotive stocks gained, including Li Auto (up 4.93%) and BYD (up 3.57%), supported by the implementation of the "old-for-new" vehicle trade-in policy [14][16]. - The policy allows consumers to receive subsidies for trading in eligible old vehicles for new ones, which is expected to stimulate market confidence [16]. Solar Energy Sector - Solar energy stocks saw gains, with GCL-Poly Energy rising by 20.99% and GCL-Technology by 4.72%. The market regulator is enhancing compliance guidance for price competition in the solar industry [17]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - Commercial aerospace stocks performed well, with Asia Pacific Satellite rising by 34.53% and Aerospace Holdings by 18.33%. Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application was accepted, marking a significant milestone in the sector [18][19]. Individual Stock Movements - Delin Holdings rose by 11.76% following the conditional approval of its subsidiary to provide virtual asset trading services [21]. - Meitu Inc. increased by 6.14% after issuing $250 million in convertible bonds to Alibaba, which could make Alibaba the third-largest shareholder in Meitu [22].

Group 1 - Home appliance stocks have risen across the board, with significant increases in companies such as Skyworth Group (up 10.45% to HKD 5.18), Midea Group (up 5% to HKD 89.2), Haier Smart Home (up 4.2% to HKD 25.3), and Hisense Home Appliances (up 2.33% to HKD 23.72) [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy on December 30, 2026, regarding large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Dongfang Securities anticipates that domestic sales pressure will improve in the first quarter of 2026 as national subsidy funds become available, and that the industry will gradually enter a post-subsidy era [1] - Guotou Securities forecasts that the continuation of the old-for-new policy will support domestic appliance consumption, benefiting companies with advantages in R&D, distribution, and branding [1] - The easing of the US-China trade conflict is expected to reduce tariff pressures, allowing home appliance companies to gradually release global production capacity and continue to gain incremental contributions from emerging markets [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong home appliance stocks experienced a significant increase, with major companies showing notable gains [1] - Skyworth Group (00751.HK) rose by 10.45%, reaching HKD 5.18 [1] - Midea Group (00300.HK) increased by 5%, trading at HKD 89.2 [1] - Haier Smart Home (06690.HK) saw a rise of 4.2%, priced at HKD 25.3 [1] - Hisense Home Appliances (00921.HK) grew by 2.33%, with a price of HKD 23.72 [1]

Group 1 - Home appliance stocks experienced a significant increase, with Skyworth Group rising by 10.45% to HKD 5.18, Midea Group increasing by 5% to HKD 89.2, Haier Smart Home up by 4.2% to HKD 25.3, and Hisense Home Appliances gaining 2.33% to HKD 23.72 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on December 30 regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods by 2026, which is expected to positively impact the home appliance sector [1] - Dongfang Securities anticipates that the domestic sales pressure will improve in the first quarter of 2026 as national subsidy funds become available, and the industry will gradually enter a post-subsidy era [1] - Guotou Securities forecasts that the home appliance replacement policy will continue into 2026, with optimized support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, benefiting companies with R&D, channel, and brand advantages [1] - The easing of the US-China trade conflict is expected to reduce tariff pressures, allowing home appliance companies to gradually release global production capacity, with emerging markets contributing to incremental growth [1]

Group 1 - Home appliance stocks experienced a significant rise, with Skyworth Group increasing by 10.45% to HKD 5.18, Midea Group rising by 5% to HKD 89.2, Haier Smart Home up by 4.2% to HKD 25.3, and Hisense Home Appliances gaining 2.33% to HKD 23.72 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on December 30 regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the old-for-new policy for consumer goods in 2026 [1] - Dongfang Securities anticipates that the domestic sales pressure will improve in the first quarter of 2026 with the arrival of national subsidy funds, and the industry will gradually enter a post-subsidy era [1] - Guotou Securities forecasts that the old-for-new policy for home appliances will continue in 2026, with optimized support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, leading to steady domestic home appliance consumption [1] - Companies with advantages in research and development, distribution, and branding in both white goods and black goods sectors are expected to benefit more from the new policy [1] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade conflict is expected to reduce tariff pressures, and home appliance companies are gradually releasing global production capacity, with emerging markets contributing incremental growth [1]

Group 1 - The 2026 appliance replacement policy will provide subsidies for consumers purchasing energy-efficient home appliances, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [1] - The first batch of subsidies for the 2026 policy amounts to 62.5 billion yuan, which is lower than the 2025 plan, and the eligible appliance categories are fewer [1] - Citigroup believes the new policy will boost consumer sentiment despite the limited overall impact on e-commerce platforms due to high baseline effects and smaller subsidy scale [1] Group 2 - The 2026 policy is expected to stimulate domestic appliance sales and improve product structure, benefiting companies with R&D, channel, and brand advantages in the white and black goods sectors [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions may reduce tariff pressures, allowing home appliance companies to gradually release global production capacity and gain incremental contributions from emerging markets [2] - The new policy is anticipated to drive the home appliance industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green upgrades, favoring large appliance companies with competitive advantages [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the home appliance industry include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, Skyworth Group, and Xiaomi Group [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced a new policy for 2026 to support the replacement of old appliances and consumer goods, providing a subsidy of 15% of the product price for eligible energy-efficient appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item [1][2] - The first batch of funding for this policy amounts to 62.5 billion yuan, aimed at stimulating consumer sentiment despite a smaller subsidy scale compared to 2025 [1][2] - The policy is expected to benefit e-commerce platforms, although the overall impact may be limited due to high baseline effects and reduced subsidy amounts [1][2] Group 2 - The 2026 policy focuses on high-efficiency products, with a narrower scope and lower subsidy rates compared to 2025, which aligns with market expectations and is anticipated to improve domestic appliance sales [2] - Companies with advantages in research, distribution, and branding in the white and black goods sectors are expected to benefit more from the new policy [2] - The policy is likely to drive the home appliance industry towards higher-end, smart, and green upgrades, optimizing product structures [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed companies in the home appliance supply chain include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, Skyworth Group, and Xiaomi Group [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home has received multiple industry recognitions at the National After-Sales Service Conference, affirming its service capabilities and standardization through a digital platform that extends its offline service system online and overseas [1][2] Group 1: Service System and Operational Performance - The digitalization of the service system has been recognized by the industry, enhancing user engagement and service response efficiency, which supports channel operation quality and brand reputation [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.51%, maintaining a growth rate of 10.2% from H1 2025 [2] - Domestic business revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 10.8%, with air conditioning revenue increasing by over 30% [2] - Market share for Haier's air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 3.7, -0.3, and 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2] - The strong performance in air conditioning is attributed to high temperatures in northern China and the company's traditional market advantages, alongside operational model reforms and digital marketing efforts [2] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [3] - The improvement in product structure and operational efficiency in Europe positively impacted profitability [3] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were stable, with slight year-on-year changes [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 27.9%, up by 0.1 percentage points, driven by product upgrades and supply chain optimization [3] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 6.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.295 billion yuan, representing 1.2 times the net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - Future growth momentum is expected to extend, with potential benefits from a recovery in the U.S. market due to anticipated interest rate cuts [3] - The company is projected to achieve double-digit profit growth in 2026, with high profitability quality supporting shareholder returns [3] - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 2.29, 2.52, and 2.78 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.6, 10.5, and 9.5 times [4] - A target price of 33.8 yuan has been set, corresponding to a 13.4 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) [1] Core Insights - Haier Smart Home has received multiple industry recognitions for its digital service system, which extends its offline service capabilities online and overseas, enhancing service efficiency and standardization [1] - The company reported a revenue of 77.56 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.51%, consistent with the 10.2% growth in H1 2025 [8] - The domestic business revenue grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with the air conditioning segment seeing over 30% growth in Q3 [8] - The company’s profitability improved, with a net profit of 5.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 12.7% year-on-year [8] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 6.352 billion yuan, which is 1.2 times the net profit [8] - Future growth is expected to continue, with a projected double-digit profit growth in 2026, supported by improving demand in domestic and international markets [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 285.981 billion, 309.930 billion, 328.665 billion, and 347.024 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 8.4%, 6.0%, and 5.6% [3] - Net profit projections for the same years are 18.741 billion, 21.432 billion, 23.605 billion, and 26.101 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.9%, 14.4%, 10.1%, and 10.6% respectively [3] - The target price is set at 33.8 yuan, with the current price at 26.54 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [4]