港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 财信证券指出，整体而言，今年"五一"假期旅游市场呈现全面复苏态势，我们认为主要受益于三大核心 驱动因素：一是"请4休11"拼假模式有效激活长线旅游需求；二是免签及离境退税等出入境便利化政策 持续释放红利；三是多元化文旅消费场景创新显著提升市场吸引力。在此带动下，居民出行半径显著扩 大，消费意愿持续提升。展望后市，随着扩内需政策持续加码，叠加消费信心逐步修复，旅游行业有望 延续复苏态势。 5月14日早盘，港股集体上涨，截至发稿，中证港股通消费主题指数涨1.08%。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）涨0.73%，换手率超1.88%。成分股中，思摩尔国 际涨超5%，零跑汽车涨超4%，万洲国际、波司登、美团-W等多股跟涨。 消息面来看，据经济参考报，多个部门近期强调促进商旅文体健多业态消费融合、各地拿出真金白银促 进融合新业态发展、企业商圈计划引入更多文化体育要素。记者关注到，多元业态融合创新正 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Smoore International (06969.HK) surged in the afternoon, currently up by 9.7% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Smoore International experienced a significant short-term price increase, rising nearly 12% to HKD 15.9 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets set for smoke-free revenue contributions [11][12][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards a smoke-free era, with leading companies adapting to changing consumer habits and increasing their focus on new tobacco products. For instance, Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a continued high-pressure regulatory environment overseas, with several countries implementing bans on disposable e-cigarettes and the FDA accelerating the PMTA process for new products. This regulatory landscape is expected to influence market dynamics and product iterations [3][12] Domestic Suppliers - Domestic suppliers are positioned to enhance their global market share. For example, Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a significant net profit increase of 48.4% year-on-year, indicating robust performance and strategic growth initiatives [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in manufacturing, which is expected to enhance its market share as HNB penetration increases globally [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading tobacco companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strategic positioning and growth potential in the evolving tobacco landscape [6][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets for smoke-free revenue [11][12] - Compliance is emphasized as a key development theme, with ongoing regulatory pressures in overseas markets leading to a decline in disposable vape products. The report anticipates a recovery in the compliant market and an acceleration in product iteration [3][12] - Domestic suppliers are poised for growth, with companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong showing stable revenue performance and plans for innovation and international expansion [4][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report discusses the increasing penetration of new tobacco products, which is changing consumer habits. Leading companies are focusing on R&D and product innovation, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [11][12] - Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030, while British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco have set similar ambitious targets for 2035 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a high-pressure regulatory environment in overseas markets, with new bans on disposable vapes in Belgium, France, and the UK. The FDA in the US is also accelerating its approval processes for new products [3][12] Financial Performance of Key Players - Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong achieved a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.4%. The company is optimizing its product and channel structure for better profitability [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in the manufacturing of smoking devices [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the evolving market [6][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth of emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products, indicating a robust performance in the light industry sector [1][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in traditional consumption sectors, with a focus on companies that are expected to reach performance inflection points in the second half of the year [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The overall economic environment is described as weak, but there is structural prosperity in consumption [5] 2. Performance Review for 24A & 25Q1 - Emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and others demonstrating strong performance [9] - Traditional consumption sectors are expected to stabilize and recover, with companies such as Oppein Home, Gujia Home, and others being highlighted for their potential [9] 3. Sub-sector Performance - **Home Products**: 24A revenue decreased by 0.28% YoY, while net profit dropped by 16.21%. However, 25Q1 showed a revenue increase of 3.79% and a net profit increase of 10.78% [9] - **Paper Industry**: 24A revenue decreased by 1.25% YoY, with a significant drop in net profit of 136.6%. 25Q1 saw a revenue decline of 13.04% and a net profit decrease of 91.72% [9] - **Packaging**: 24A revenue increased by 2.55% YoY, but net profit fell by 16.81%. In 25Q1, revenue grew by 9.2% and net profit increased by 19.7% [9] - **Cultural and Entertainment Products**: 24A revenue increased by 7.64% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 8.81%. 25Q1 showed a slight revenue increase of 2.42% and a net profit decrease of 6.95% [9] - **Personal Care Products**: 24A revenue increased by 6.30% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 4.71%. 25Q1 saw a significant revenue increase of 26.13% and a net profit increase of 12.94% [9] 4. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.28%, with notable changes in specific sub-sectors [12] - Companies like Sun Paper, Morning Glory, and others are leading in fund holdings, particularly in emotional consumption categories [15]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Philip Morris International's (PMI) Q1 2025 results indicates significant growth potential for the heated tobacco product (HNB) market, which is relevant for Smoore International as a key supplier in this sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Smoore International's stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 13 HKD with a transaction volume of 73.1681 million HKD [1] - PMI's Smoke-Free Products (SFP) revenue increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 33.1% and a gross margin exceeding 70%, up by 6.7 percentage points [1] - The shipment volume for PMI's products grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with HNB, oral tobacco, and e-cigarettes increasing by 12%, 27%, and 107% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The international tobacco giants are advancing their smoke-free strategies, with PMI's Q1 performance aligning with expectations for HNB growth, particularly in the U.S. market [2] - The HNB market has substantial growth potential, with regulatory advantages over vaping products, including lower appeal to youth and easier harm reduction validation [2] - The competitive landscape for HNB is favorable due to fewer participating manufacturers, and British American Tobacco's new Glo Hilo product shows significant improvements in performance and user experience compared to both leading products and previous generations [2]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 家居用品 思摩尔国际(06969) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 菲莫一季报再次印证新型烟草大势，持续布局 ——思摩尔国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：4.23 菲莫国际发布 2025Q1 业绩，IQOS 作为 HNB 市场份额 70%+的领军 产品，从其经营表现感知行业成长，对思摩尔的 HNB 业务潜力具备指导意义。 3）美国 HNB 市场即将打开：美国市场 3 月底在德州试销收到了强烈的市场反 馈，未来几个月进行更多的试点。 4）对 25 年 IQOS 的指引：维持此前 25 全年烟支销量同比增长 10-12%（24 年达 到 1400 亿支、同比+11.6%）的指引，管理层预计今年剩余时间 IQOS 将保持双 位数增长。 5）菲莫 HNB 烟弹 25Q1 在全球市场的份额为 5.7%（同比+0.6pct），在日本市 场达到 32.2%（24Q4 为 30.6%） ❑ 新型口含烟 ZYN 表现亮眼，雾化电子烟开始起量，稳步迈向"无烟气未来" 1）新型口含烟：尼古丁袋 ZYN 在美国 25Q1 出货量 2.02 亿罐（同比+53%）， 在美国以外的国际市场同样取 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 11,798.662 million, representing a 5.3% increase from RMB 11,203.250 million in 2023[10] - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 4,411.969 million, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down from 38.7% in 2023[10] - Net profit for 2024 decreased to RMB 1,303.255 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 11.0%, compared to 14.7% in 2023[10] - The company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 11,798.66 million in the review period, representing a year-on-year growth of about 5.3%[27] - The group's total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was approximately RMB 11,798,662 thousand, representing a 5.3% increase from RMB 11,203,250 thousand in 2023[72] - The gross profit for the review period was approximately RMB 4,411,969 thousand, a 1.6% increase from RMB 4,340,911 thousand in 2023, with a gross margin decrease from 38.7% to 37.4%[73] Asset Management - The company reported a significant increase in non-current assets, reaching RMB 10,807.950 million in 2024, up from RMB 5,937.532 million in 2023[10] - Current assets decreased to RMB 16,846.428 million in 2024 from RMB 19,570.752 million in 2023, while current liabilities increased to RMB 5,259.365 million[10] - The asset-liability ratio increased to 20.8% in 2024 from 16.1% in 2023, indicating a higher proportion of liabilities relative to total assets[12] - As of December 31, 2024, the group's current assets net value was approximately RMB 11,587,063 thousand, down from RMB 16,004,419 thousand in 2023[86] - The group's current ratio as of December 31, 2024, was approximately 320.3%, a decrease from 548.8% in 2023[87] - The asset-liability ratio as of December 31, 2024, was approximately 26.2%, compared to 19.1% in 2023[90] Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company plans to declare a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per ordinary share for the year ended December 31, 2024[11] - The board has proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2024, subject to approval at the upcoming annual general meeting[166] - The company's distributable reserves as of December 31, 2024, amount to RMB 7,047.7 million[161] Business Segments and Growth - The electronic vaporization segment showed positive growth due to increased regulatory enforcement against non-compliant products, leading to a shift in consumer demand towards compliant products[14] - The company successfully launched new business lines in heated non-combustible products and aerosol medical and beauty products, contributing to overall business diversification[14] - In the heating non-combustion product sector, the company plans to support strategic clients in launching products in more markets, focusing on user feedback for continuous product iteration[20] - The company successfully launched the "Lan Zhi" brand in the aerosol beauty business, which has gained recognition through online promotions and offline channels, achieving impressive sales during major marketing events[16] - The company anticipates that 2025 will be a critical year for the second growth curve, with plans to expand into harm reduction products and strengthen its competitive edge in core businesses[21] - The group launched multiple new product series in overseas markets across various segments, including electronic vaporization and medical vaporization, enhancing R&D efficiency through scientific classification management[29] Research and Development - The company is committed to increasing R&D investment, particularly in aerosol medical and heating non-combustible products, which have shown satisfactory breakthroughs during the review period[16] - Research and development expenditure for the period was approximately RMB 1,572,313 thousand, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year, accounting for about 13.3% of total revenue[48] - R&D expenditure for electronic nicotine delivery systems was RMB 1,034,668 thousand, accounting for 65.8% of total R&D spending, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year[52] - R&D expenditure for medical and beauty aerosol products increased by 41.3% year-on-year to RMB 392,180 thousand, accounting for 24.9% of total R&D spending[52] - The company filed a total of 1,558 new patent applications globally during the period, including 893 invention patents, bringing the cumulative total to 9,253 patents[51] Market and Regulatory Environment - The group achieved a revenue contribution of approximately 37.4% from the U.S. market during the review period, with significant legal and regulatory developments impacting the electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) products[33] - The FDA has taken action on over 99% of PMTA submissions, with ongoing legal challenges affecting several ENDS products[33] - The UK has not introduced any significant laws or regulations related to electronic cigarettes and vaping devices as of December 31, 2024, contributing 25.5% to revenue[34] - In the EU, countries with flavor restrictions include Finland, Estonia, Hungary, and others, with a revenue contribution of 7.9%[34] - Hong Kong has proposed a complete ban on alternative smoking products, which is expected to impact 32.8% of revenue by December 31, 2024[36] - The mainland China market's revenue contribution is approximately 2.2%, with new regulations being implemented in July-August 2024[36] Corporate Governance - The board consists of eight directors, including three independent non-executive directors, ensuring sufficient checks and balances within the board[109] - The company has adopted the corporate governance code and complied with all provisions except for the separation of the roles of chairman and CEO, which are held by the same individual[108] - The independent non-executive directors reviewed and confirmed that the related party transactions were conducted on fair and reasonable terms[105] - The company has established a clear process for the appointment and re-election of directors, with terms set at three years[115] - The company has implemented an anti-corruption policy to prevent bribery and corruption within its operations[130] Employee and Gender Diversity - Overall employee gender ratio is 48.14% female (8,939) and 51.86% male (9,631) across the company[124] - The company has appointed one female executive director and one female non-executive director as of December 31, 2024[122] - The board consists of 25% female members (2 out of 8) and 75% male members (6 out of 8) as of December 31, 2024[124] - The company emphasizes gender diversity in recruitment and selection processes at all levels[122] Risk Management - The company’s risk management and internal control systems aim to manage operational efficiency and ensure compliance with relevant laws and regulations[142] - The Board has confirmed the effectiveness of the risk management and internal control systems as of December 31, 2024[144] - The company's overall risk management process is integrated into daily operations, with management responsible for identifying and responding to risks[144] Stock Options and Incentives - The company has granted a total of 129,524,700 stock options, with 98,158,700 options currently exercisable[193] - The share incentive plan aims to recognize and reward contributions from eligible participants to the group's growth and development, while also attracting suitable personnel[195] - The maximum number of shares that can be held under the plan at any time is capped at 2% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares)[198] - The total number of shares issued to each eligible participant under the plan within any 12-month period cannot exceed 1% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares)[200]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in its core business of atomization, with promising growth in the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment. The revenue growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2025, supported by increased demand for compliant products due to regulatory changes in the US and Europe [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a pre-tax profit of 255 million RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 36.3%, and a post-tax profit of 192 million RMB, down 43.4% year-over-year. This decline is attributed to increased business investments and a higher tax rate [1] - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 12.96 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 9.82% compared to 2024 [6] Business Segments - In the To B (business-to-business) segment, the company anticipates revenue recovery driven by stricter enforcement of regulations on non-compliant electronic vapor products in the US and increased demand for compliant products in Europe. Revenue growth in the US and Europe is projected at 5.2% and 14.4% respectively for the second half of 2024 [2] - The To C (business-to-consumer) segment is expected to see continued strong performance from the company's proprietary brand, VAPORESSO, with projected revenue of 2.48 billion RMB in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 34.0% [2] HNB Business - The company has made significant progress with its HNB business, particularly with the launch of new products by a major client, British American Tobacco (BAT). The Glo Hilo series is expected to be introduced to additional markets in 2025-2026, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [3] - The global HNB market was valued at 34.463 billion USD in 2023, with PMI holding a market share of 71% and BAT at 15.3%, highlighting the competitive landscape and growth opportunities for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.323 billion RMB, 2.140 billion RMB, and 2.762 billion RMB respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.21 RMB for 2025, 0.35 RMB for 2026, and 0.45 RMB for 2027 [4][6] - The target price is set at 16.25 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 43 times the expected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2026 [4]