Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth over the past 15 years, with total sales revenue increasing by 300 times and tax contributions growing by 340 times since its restructuring in 2009 [2]. - The company aims to become a world-class liquor enterprise in the next 50 years, leveraging its strong brand heritage and innovative product offerings [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on dual-channel marketing, targeting both traditional and emerging markets to enhance brand influence among high-net-worth individuals [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,856 million yuan in 2022 to 9,254 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 2,327 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 1,592 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 2,414 million yuan by 2026 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.30 yuan in 2022 to 0.71 yuan in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [1]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.9 in 2022 to 10.6 by 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [1]. Industry Insights - The report notes a turning point in the liquor industry, particularly in the sauce-flavored liquor segment, with a projected reduction in overall production capacity by approximately 100,000 tons in the upcoming production seasons [4][9]. - Despite the overall adjustment in the liquor market, the sauce-flavored liquor segment is expected to continue growing, capturing a larger market share [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it is implied that the company is positioned for potential growth in the future [38]. Core Insights - The sauce liquor industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on brand concentration and market expansion, particularly in the mid to high-end segments [5][6]. - The overall revenue of the sauce liquor industry reached approximately 230 billion yuan in 2023, with profits of around 94 billion yuan, accounting for 30% and 40% of the total liquor industry, respectively [7]. - The company has established a robust channel management system, leveraging a dual-driven model of distribution and group purchasing, which enhances its market presence and operational efficiency [21][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The sauce liquor industry has high entry barriers due to factors such as production cycle length and brand investment, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands [6]. - The demand for sauce liquor has been driven by rising consumer wealth and a shift towards quality consumption since 2016, with brands like Moutai leading the market [7]. Market Dynamics - The market for sauce liquor is expected to continue expanding, with significant growth potential in provinces with high consumption levels, such as Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong [9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of business demand and the maturation of its sales and marketing strategies [17][57]. Financial Analysis - The company's gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase expected in the coming years, while expenses are anticipated to improve gradually as operational efficiencies are realized [45][47]. - The company has implemented a rigorous inventory management system, which allows for better control over stock levels and sales performance [28][60]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to navigate through the current market adjustments effectively, leveraging its strong channel management capabilities to capture market opportunities as demand recovers [57]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity in the sauce liquor sector is projected to reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 kiloliters by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [25].

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。考虑 24H2 起白酒进入产业调整期，中 高档及以上价位带面临压力，下调公司 2024-26 年经调整 EPS 至 0.49 元（前值 0.59 元）、0.52 元（0.73 元）、0.55 元（0.89 元），当 前股价对应 2024 年 12X PE。 Q3 行业降速，公司坚持品质经营。24Q3 及国庆白酒大盘动销平淡， 公司注重结构和盈利，主动放慢渠道进度。其中主品牌珍酒通过升 级、扩产等实现优能优品的战略导向，珍十五再度获得专业赛事认 可并将推出升级后的四代珍十五，品质和知名度的提升有助于推动 消费场景和客群不断扩张；珍三十独立事业部运营后将以流通渠道 开发为目标，推进速度受次高端价位带白酒运行情况影响；高档酒 定位独特、渠道竞争相对较小，预计仍保持较快增长。第二品牌李 渡当前仍处于省内拓价位带、省外做市场阶段，预计延续此前趋势、 增速快于集团整体。 强化品牌力，拔高市场形象。公司致力于品牌培育，体验式营销是 重要抓手，2024 年在品鉴会、回厂游等的基础 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.01, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 7.91 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a three-engine growth model, with its flagship brand, Zhenjiu, leading the way, followed by Li Du and regional brands like Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao [9][10]. - The management team, led by founder Wu Xiangdong, has extensive experience in the liquor industry, which is seen as a key advantage for navigating market challenges [17][23]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.79% from 2020 to 2023, driven by strategic acquisitions and brand development [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Three-Engine Growth Model - The company has integrated high-quality assets to create a three-engine growth model, consisting of Zhenjiu, Li Du, and Xiangjiao & Kaikouxiao, which are expected to drive future growth [9][10]. - Zhenjiu has become a leading national brand in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, contributing 65% of total sales in 2023, with revenue growing from CNY 1.346 billion to CNY 4.583 billion from 2020 to 2023, achieving a CAGR of 50.46% [12][38]. - Li Du, contributing 16% of sales, has transitioned to the high-end market with revenue increasing from CNY 0.359 billion to CNY 1.110 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 45.63% [12][38]. - Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, as regional leaders, contributed 17% of sales, with Xiangjiao's revenue growing from CNY 0.395 billion to CNY 0.834 billion (CAGR of 28.28%) and Kaikouxiao's from CNY 0.172 billion to CNY 0.385 billion (CAGR of 30.77%) [12][13]. 2. Management Experience - The founder, Wu Xiangdong, has over 20 years of experience in the liquor industry, having successfully navigated various market cycles and established a strong brand presence [17][23]. - The management team has a proven track record in brand building and market expansion, which is critical for the company's future growth [24][27]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 85.32 billion, CNY 102.28 billion, and CNY 120.38 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of CNY 18.97 billion, CNY 25.33 billion, and CNY 33.51 billion [2]. - The report uses a P/E valuation method, estimating a target P/E of 19.5x for 2024, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 37 billion [2][12].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 4,133,191, representing a 17.5% increase from RMB 3,518,957 in the same period of 2023[6]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 2,428,682, up 19.2% from RMB 2,037,148 in 2023[7]. - Profit attributable to equity shareholders decreased by 52.6% to RMB 751,718 from RMB 1,584,899 in the prior year[7]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 26.9% to RMB 1,018,123 compared to RMB 802,519 in 2023[7]. - Basic earnings per share decreased by 61.3% to RMB 0.230 from RMB 0.594 in 2023[7]. - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 12.8% to RMB 0.227 from RMB 0.260 in the same period last year[7]. - The net profit margin decreased significantly to 18.2% from 45.0% in 2023[11]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 24.6% compared to 22.8% in the previous year[11]. Revenue Contributions by Brand - Zhen Jiu, the flagship brand, contributed approximately 65.4% of the company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024[22]. - Revenue from Zhen Jiu increased by 17.2% to RMB 2,702.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 2,305.9 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Li Du surged by 37.9% to RMB 674.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 489.2 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Xiang Jiao rose by 2.4% to RMB 452.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 442.0 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Kai Kou Xiao increased by 1.6% to RMB 224.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from RMB 221.0 million in the same period of 2023[66]. Operational Efficiency and Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market presence through strategic initiatives[6]. - The company is implementing a dual-channel growth strategy to expand emerging sales channels and high-end customer base[17]. - The company is enhancing distributor quality to strengthen market competitiveness in distribution channels[17]. - The company aims to further strengthen brand recognition and expand the national sales network outside Jiangxi Province for its second growth engine, Li Du[21]. - The company is optimizing resource allocation across production costs and marketing expenses[17]. Product Development and Innovation - Zhen Jiu launched several new package-free baijiu products in the first half of 2023, including the Zhen 15 Series - Gold Medal Commemorative Edition and Zhen 30 Series - Grand Gold Medal Commemorative Edition[23]. - The company plans to expand its product matrix to include more premium and mid-range products to prepare for future scaled expansion[27]. - The company aims to enhance consumer experience by upgrading its main product lines, including the launch of the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and Li Du Sorghum 1975 in February 2024[27]. - Zhen Jiu strategically expanded its product portfolio to cater to specific consumption scenarios, launching "Zhen Banquet" in late May 2024[23]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The Group received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind, becoming the first company in the baijiu industry to achieve this recognition[57]. - The Group's energy efficiency improvements are aligned with ISO50001 energy management system requirements[104]. - The Group implemented a packaging bottle washing water recycling system and reclaimed water reuse system to reduce water consumption intensity[105]. - The Group aims to implement over 100 ESG enhancement tasks in the next six months, focusing on sustainable practices[1]. - The transition from ceramic to glass bottles is part of the company's ESG strategy, with 89,000 ceramic bottles replaced in the first half of 2024[52]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - Net cash generated from operating activities surged by 166.2% to RMB 574,886 from RMB 215,960 in the previous year[7]. - Cash at bank and on hand was approximately RMB 6,111.8 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023[99]. - Total capital expenditure for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 512.4 million, down from RMB 564.5 million in 1H2023[100]. - The company reported a balance of total equity at June 30, 2024, amounting to RMB 13,194,059,000[167]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2024, Mr. Wu holds a 66.69% interest in the company through controlled corporations, with 2,259,964,000 shares[110]. - The total number of issued shares of the company as of June 30, 2024, is 3,388,623,550 shares[111]. - The Board did not recommend the payment of any interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024[124]. - The Post-IPO Equity Incentive Plan allows for the issuance of up to 163,566,552 shares, which is 5% of the relevant class of shares in issue on the Listing Date[127].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.133 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, showcasing robust revenue growth and strong performance [2]. - The company's main product,珍酒, achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%, accounting for 65.4% of total revenue. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 7.9% and 8.6% respectively, driven by the growth of high-end product series [2]. - 李渡, another key product, saw a revenue of 670 million yuan, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 37.9%, and its revenue contribution rose to 16.3%. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 30.2% and 5.9% respectively, indicating strong market penetration [2]. - The company has optimized its internal operations, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 58.8% and an adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points respectively [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.756 billion yuan, 2.166 billion yuan, and 2.551 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -25%, 23%, and 18% [5][11]. - The projected revenue growth rates are 20% for 2024, 15% for 2025, and 14% for 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5][11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 60.8% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to be 23% in the same year [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with a net profit of 750 million RMB and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [2]. - The growth is driven by the brands Zhenjiu and Lidu, with significant improvements in product structure and sales performance across different price segments [2]. - The company is expected to continue its sustainable growth through new product launches, optimizing distributors, and enhancing brand strength, particularly in key markets like Guangdong and Hunan [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 58.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Zhenjiu and Lidu achieving gross margins of 59% and 66.8%, respectively [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 21.85% and 6.65%, respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses due to improved efficiency in the sales team [2]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 8.45 billion, 10.10 billion, and 11.62 billion RMB, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 2.02 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.88 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 24.5%, 21.6%, and 17.2% respectively [3][4].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_StockInfo]08 月 22 日收盘价(HKD) | 7.10 | | 52 周股价波动(HKD) | 6.90-12.84 | | 股本结构 | | | [总股本 Table_CapitalInfo /流通 H 股(百万股] ) | 3389/3389 | | 总市值/流通市值 | | | (百万 HKD) | 24059/24059 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《高端引领结构优化，逆势向上彰显价 | | | 值》2024.03.28 | | | 《三大引擎共筑成长，精耕细作布局长 | | 远》2024.01.29 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------- ...

珍酒李渡（06979.HK）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） 全年前低后高，奠定扎实基础 目标价：14 港元 当前价：7.4 港元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2024 年中报，2024 上半年营业总收入 41.3 亿元，同增 17.5%；归母 净利润/Non-GAAP 净利润分别为 7.5/10.2 亿元，同比-52.6%/+26.9%。经营活 动现金流净额 5.7 亿元，同增 166.2%。 评论： ❖ 李渡高增释放潜力，增长务实平稳过渡。上半年收入/经调整净利润同增 17.5%/26.9%，增长务实，符合预期。分品牌看，珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑分别同 增 17.2%/37.9%/2.4%/1.6%。其中，珍酒品牌量/价分别增长 7.9%/8.6%，判断 系珍十五放量，叠加珍 30 及真实年份酒提速贡献。李渡量/价分别同增 30.2%/5.9%，占比提升 2.4pcts 至 16.3%，判断系省内加快中档酒布局，省外市 场铺货贡献。湘窖及开口笑主要系去年基数较高致增速放缓。上半年高端/次 高端/中低档酒收入分别同比+17.9%/+32.6%/+2.7%，次高端及以上产品增长较 好。分渠道看，24H1 末经销商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company,珍酒李渡 (6979.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.13 billion HKD for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 752 million HKD, with an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [3][4] - The growth in the珍酒 and李渡 brands was significant, with李渡 experiencing a 38% increase in revenue, driven by an improved product matrix and penetration into markets outside its home province [3][4] - The company is actively implementing a dual-channel growth strategy, which is expected to enhance the potential of its partners and prepare for future growth [3][4] Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the珍酒 brand saw a 17% increase in revenue, while李渡 grew by 38%. The high-end and next-high-end segments grew by 18% and 33%, respectively [3][4] - The overall gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of mid-range products and the positive contribution from new self-owned production capacity [3][4] - The adjusted net profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 24.6% [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 8.45 billion, 10.13 billion, and 11.96 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 20.0%, and 18.1%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 2.04 billion, 2.53 billion, and 3.14 billion HKD, with growth rates of 25.6%, 24.1%, and 24.1% [4][5]