Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a healthy adjustment, with steady growth expected for the Li Du brand. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand after a period of consolidation [7] - The company has received multiple awards, indicating strong brand recognition and market positioning [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted due to increased competition in the mid-range liquor segment, but the long-term outlook remains positive [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 7,060 million RMB - 2024A: 7,067 million RMB - 2025E: 7,304 million RMB - 2026E: 8,107 million RMB - 2027E: 9,289 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 20.56%, 0.10%, 3.36%, 10.99%, and 14.59% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 2,327 million RMB - 2024A: 1,324 million RMB - 2025E: 1,494 million RMB - 2026E: 1,804 million RMB - 2027E: 2,251 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 125.96%, -43.12%, 12.90%, 20.71%, and 24.77% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1,622.60 million RMB - 2024A: 1,676.28 million RMB - 2025E: 1,681.85 million RMB - 2026E: 1,929.36 million RMB - 2027E: 2,288.12 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are 35.52%, 3.31%, 0.33%, 14.72%, and 18.59% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 0.69 RMB - 2024A: 0.39 RMB - 2025E: 0.44 RMB - 2026E: 0.53 RMB - 2027E: 0.66 RMB [1] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 9.58 - 2024A: 16.84 - 2025E: 14.92 - 2026E: 12.36 - 2027E: 9.91 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with first-tier brands showing relative resilience while second and third-tier brands face significant declines in stock prices [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - First-tier liquor stocks, including Jinshiyuan, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, Shui Jing Fang, and Shanxi Fenjiu, have shown slight increases, with none exceeding a 2% weekly rise [2][5]. - The WINE index saw a weekly decline of 0.97%, with second and third-tier brands like Yingjia Gongjiu, Zhenjiu Lidu, and Huangtai Liquor experiencing larger drops, particularly Zhenjiu Lidu and Huangtai Liquor, which fell over 4% [2][5]. - Guizhou Moutai led the market capitalization growth, adding 14.4 billion yuan, the only brand to exceed a 10 billion yuan increase [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Issues - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock has declined by 11% since its annual report release, with modest revenue growth and slightly below-market expectations for net profit due to a reduction in low-margin products from its e-commerce strategy [6][7]. - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue share for the second half of 2024 is expected to decline compared to last year, raising questions about the effectiveness of its inventory control strategy in restoring rapid growth [7]. - Huangtai Liquor has faced a continuous downward trend in stock price, attributed to poor governance, including the replacement of three secretaries in three years and a lack of cash dividends, which is rare in the liquor industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing unprecedented operational challenges in 2024, characterized by a "double whammy" of declining volume and price due to weak consumer demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a revenue of 7.067 billion RMB in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 3.3% to 1.676 billion RMB [2][3]. - Shareholders' net profit plummeted by 43.1% to 1.324 billion RMB, primarily due to changes in the fair value of non-operating financial instruments [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant revenue decline in the second half of 2024, with a 16.46% drop compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. Brand Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu's main brand, Zhenjiu, accounted for 63.4% of total revenue in 2024, down from 65.2% the previous year, while the Li Du brand saw an increase to 18.6% [7]. - The revenue from the Zhenjiu brand decreased by 2.25% to 4.48 billion RMB, attributed to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in product expansion [7][8]. - Li Du brand revenue increased by 18.3% to 1.313 billion RMB, helping to offset declines from other brands [8]. Inventory and Production - Zhenjiu Lidu's inventory reached a record high of 7.503 billion RMB, a 17.54% increase year-on-year, indicating challenges in revenue growth despite stable sales [12]. - The company has continued to expand production capacity, with new facilities coming online in 2024, increasing the annual production capacity of its flagship products [11]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end market penetration, but this strategy has led to increased sales expenses, which reached 1.611 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 22.8% of revenue [17]. - Zhenjiu Lidu is implementing a diversified marketing strategy to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement, including experiential marketing and high-end tasting events [16][21]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is transitioning from an incremental growth phase to a more competitive, saturated market, necessitating a shift towards premiumization and brand differentiation [20][21]. - The overall profitability of Zhenjiu Lidu remains under pressure, with its gross margin at 58.6%, which is lower compared to industry leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to focus on long-term quality growth while actively managing inventory levels, leading to a projected revenue of 70.67 billion yuan for 2024, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a challenging second half of 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 16.5% to 29.34 billion yuan, driven by a decrease in sales volume and a slight increase in price per ton [1][2]. - The company is strategically simplifying its product lines, particularly in the high-end segment, to stabilize market prices and ensure long-term development [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For 2024H2, the company expects a revenue of 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5%, and a net profit of 5.72 billion yuan, down 22.9% [1]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 58.44%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the release of self-owned production capacity and a focus on high-margin products [3]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased to 22.44%, down 0.92 percentage points, primarily due to increased management expenses related to depreciation and amortization [3]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on a dual-channel growth strategy, enhancing its presence in key markets while optimizing its organizational structure to support high-end product development [2][4]. - The company plans to adjust its product offerings to emphasize mid-range and high-end price points, aiming to capture changing consumer demands [4]. - The company has increased its number of distribution partners and retail outlets, indicating a commitment to expanding its market reach [2]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 73.28 billion yuan, 81.00 billion yuan, and 87.86 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the ongoing industry adjustment [4]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.25 billion yuan, 18.20 billion yuan, and 23.05 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.5, and 9.9 [4].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 珍酒李渡（06979） 证券研究报告 24H2 着眼长线主动降速，25 年高质量增长可期 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润 分别为 70.67/13.24/16.76 亿元（同比+0.5%/-43.1%/+3.3%），其中 2024H2 公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润分别为 29.34/5.72/6.58 亿元（同比 -16.5%/-22.9%/-19.8%）。 24H2 主动去库保证渠道良性，高端聚焦主品结构阶段承压。2024H2 公司 实现营收 29.34 亿元（同比-16.46%），销量/吨价分别同比-16.79%/+0.40%。 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 必需性消费/食物饮品 | | 6 个月评级 | 买入（维持评级） | | 当前价格 | 7.26 港元 | | 目标价格 | 港元 | 分品牌看，2024H2 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑营收分别为 17.77/6.38/3.50/1.13 亿元（同比-21.95%/+2.91%/-10.64%/-31.02%）。 分价格带看，2024H2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Zhenjiu Lidu reveals a significant decline in net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the current liquor industry cycle and highlighting issues with brand performance and market positioning [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu reported an operating income of 7.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 43.1% to 1.324 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in the fair value of non-operating financial instruments [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit stood at 1.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1]. - The overall net profit margin decreased from 33.10% in 2023 to 18.73% in 2024 [3]. Brand Performance - The core brand, Zhenjiu, generated revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, and has seen a continuous decline in sales for four consecutive years, with sales dropping to 12,284 tons [3][5]. - The Lidu brand, however, achieved revenue growth of 1.313 billion yuan, an 18% increase, attributed to market expansion beyond Jiangxi [3][5]. - The other brands, Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, focused on the Hunan market, with revenues accounting for 11.4% and 4.8% respectively, and Kaikouxiao's revenue decreased by 12% due to a sluggish wedding market [3][5]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from high-end products accounted for approximately 24% of total revenue, with a decline of nearly 11% to 1.709 billion yuan; mid-range and below products generated about 2.36 billion yuan, with a minimal growth of 0.1% [5]. - The company has implemented various strategies to enhance its high-end offerings, including launching new premium products and hosting experiential events, but faces ongoing challenges in achieving higher market positioning [5]. Inventory and Operational Challenges - The inventory turnover days increased significantly to 854.95 days in Q4 2024 from 679.64 days at the end of Q3, indicating rising inventory pressure [7]. - Despite expressing confidence in future growth and aspirations to become a world-class brewing enterprise, the company faces numerous uncertainties and challenges in navigating the current adjustment period in the liquor industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes high-quality development and long-term strategic planning, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term aggressive expansion [1][11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, up 3.3%, marking four consecutive years of double growth [2][5]. - The gross profit margin improved to 58.6% in 2024, reflecting a steady increase from previous years, indicating enhanced profitability [5][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin reached 23.7%, also showing a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, further demonstrating the company's improved financial health [5][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement rigorous team building, top-notch quality management, immersive experiences, and continuous brand awareness expansion as part of its 2025 strategy [1][13]. - The company is committed to maintaining a stable product structure without pursuing aggressive volume growth, focusing instead on quality and channel optimization [12][14]. Market Positioning - The company is actively adapting to the competitive landscape of the liquor industry, viewing the current adjustment period as an opportunity for brands prepared for steady development [7][8]. - The company has diversified its operations across three subsidiaries, effectively mitigating market volatility risks and capturing new growth opportunities [8][9]. Cash Flow and Returns - In 2024, the company's operating cash flow reached 780 million yuan, a significant increase of 116.3%, indicating a more robust financial position [5]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of 712 million Hong Kong dollars, a 16.7% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio nearing 40%, marking a historical high [10].

Core Insights - The 112th National Spring Sugar and Wine Fair provided a window for observing the white liquor industry, indicating a stabilization in channel sentiment despite a lack of significant recovery in the off-season after the Spring Festival [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with leading brands consolidating their market position while some second-tier brands face challenges during the adjustment period [1] Group 1: Market Stability and New Product Strategies - Channel feedback during the Spring Sugar Fair shows a "bottom stabilization" characteristic in the industry, with the price of Feitian Moutai stabilizing above 2200 yuan, providing a confidence anchor for profitability expectations [2] - New product strategies emerged as a highlight, with Yanghe launching the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan, enhancing its high-end positioning through upgraded base liquor and packaging [2] - The overall production of large-scale white liquor enterprises is expected to decline by 1.8% in 2024, while sales revenue and profit are projected to grow by 5.3% and 7.76% respectively, reflecting a "volume reduction and price increase" trend [2] Group 2: Brand Differentiation and Market Challenges - Recent financial reports highlight brand differentiation, with Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue slightly increasing by 0.5% in 2024, but its core brand "Zhenjiu" experiencing a 2.3% decline in sales [3] - The market's collection progress is increasingly divergent, with brands like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu experiencing slower collection rates, while Moutai maintains a 40% collection rate due to its strong brand power [3] - The industry is entering a verification period for policy effects, where high-end liquor companies with strong brand moats are expected to benefit first from a macroeconomic recovery, while brands facing price pressure may encounter further risks [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB for the year 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 2.93 billion RMB, down 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end and next-high-end products, with revenue from high-end products decreasing by 11% to 1.71 billion RMB, while next-high-end products saw a 9% increase to 3.00 billion RMB [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.3% increase [1]. - The second half of 2024 experienced a revenue drop to 2.93 billion RMB, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% [1]. Operational Analysis - Revenue by product for 2024: Zhenjiu 4.48 billion RMB (-2%), Lidou 1.31 billion RMB (+18%), Xiangjiao 800 million RMB (-4%), and Kaikouxiao 340 million RMB (-12%) [2]. - The company adjusted its market expansion strategy, slowing down the growth of Zhenjiu and focusing on high-end products, which still showed double-digit growth [2][3]. Financial Quality - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.6 percentage points to 58.6%, with adjusted net profit margin rising to 23.7% [3]. - The company reported a year-end balance of 6.9 billion RMB in accrued rebates and 1.75 billion RMB in advance customer payments, showing a slight increase and decrease respectively compared to the previous year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a revenue growth of 3.0% in 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 17.1% to 1.55 billion RMB [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0X for 2025, 13.3X for 2026, and 10.6X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,066,784 thousand, representing a 0.5% increase from RMB 7,030,467 thousand in 2023[7] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,143,040 thousand, up 1.5% from RMB 4,079,948 thousand in 2023[7] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year decreased by 43.1% to RMB 1,323,622 thousand from RMB 2,327,083 thousand in 2023[7] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) increased by 3.3% to RMB 1,676,275 thousand from RMB 1,622,602 thousand in 2023[7] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 116.3% to RMB 781,003 thousand from RMB 361,226 thousand in 2023[7] - The gross margin improved to 58.6% in 2024 from 58.0% in 2023, while the net margin decreased to 18.7% from 33.1%[10] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 1,323.6 million for the year, compared to RMB 2,327.1 million in 2023, a decline of 43.2%[96] - Total revenue for the year 2024 reached RMB 7,066,784,000, a slight increase from RMB 7,030,467,000 in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 0.5%[106] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 1,894,332,000 for 2024, down from RMB 2,885,682,000 in 2023, representing a decline of 34.4%[113] Brand Performance - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, contributed approximately 63.4% of the company's revenue as of December 31, 2024, maintaining its position as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China[20] - Revenue from the brand Zhenjiu decreased by 2.3% to RMB 4,479.7 million, primarily due to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in lower-margin products[59] - Revenue from the brand Lidu increased by 18.3% to RMB 1,312.9 million, driven by the growth of core products and expansion into markets outside Jiangxi Province[59] - Revenue from the brand Xiangjiao decreased by 3.7% to RMB 802.5 million, with a decline in sales of the strong aroma series partially offset by growth in the Longjiang series[59] - Revenue from the brand Kaikouxiao decreased by 12.3% to RMB 337.4 million, impacted by a sluggish wedding market and a reduction in low-margin product sales[59] Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to expand into new consumption scenarios and explore cross-industry collaborations, particularly in business and tourism sectors[13] - The company plans to expand its sales channels and high-end customer base, with a focus on developing diverse consumption scenarios and cross-industry collaborations[17] - The company is strategically expanding its market presence beyond Jiangxi Province while continuing to enhance its product matrix with more mid-to-high-end offerings[26] - The company aims to support the application for the inclusion of Chinese liquor in the World Cultural Heritage tentative list, collaborating with other leading liquor enterprises[25] - The company is expanding its brand presence internationally, with events in Hong Kong and Japan to promote the Li Du brand[47] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched new product lines in 2024, including the 2013 True Vintage Liquor and Qianli Tiaoyi, enhancing its market penetration in the high-end segment[22] - The company launched upgraded versions of its main product lines, including the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and 1975, and successfully introduced a high-end product, Li Du Sorghum 1308, which won the Grand Gold Medal at the ISGC 2024 International Spirits (China) Awards shortly after its launch[26] - The company has established strategic partnerships with several universities and research institutions to enhance product R&D capabilities, including a strategic cooperation agreement with Guizhou University in 2024[32] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and expanding its mid-range and above product lines to adapt to market demand[61] Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a modern equity incentive plan post-IPO to maximize team effectiveness and has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency[4] - A comprehensive digital management system has been implemented to streamline operations and improve overall profitability through data analysis[38] - The company launched a quality management system in 2024, covering all aspects of production quality, which enhances batch quality management and traceability[39] - The company developed a channel management platform to enhance transparency and efficiency in the distribution process, allowing distributors to manage procurement and inventory effectively[40] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to ESG initiatives, including replacing ceramic bottles with glass bottles to reduce energy consumption and improve sustainability[48] - The company aims for over 50% of its energy consumption to come from renewable sources by 2024, as part of its sustainability initiatives[49] - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind Information and was included in the top 100 ESG best practices list in China[50] - The company is committed to improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption intensity across various resources, contributing to significant cost savings[49] Financial Management - The company has sufficient base liquor inventory to support rapid growth in its mid-range and premium product lines, enhancing competitiveness in the market[33] - The number of distribution partners increased from 2,938 in 2023 to 3,204 in 2024, while retail partners rose from 3,143 to 3,334, indicating a robust expansion of the distribution network[37] - Cash generated from operating activities was approximately RMB 781.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, after adjustments for non-cash and non-operating items[84] - As of December 31, 2024, bank deposits and cash amounted to RMB 6,202.2 million, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023, while bank and other borrowings increased to RMB 510.2 million from RMB 36.6 million[85] Employee and Organizational Structure - The company had 11,380 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase from 10,956 employees as of June 30, 2024[93] - The total employee costs for the year amounted to approximately RMB 2,224.4 million, reflecting the company's investment in workforce development[93] - The product development team consists of 252 employees, with a significant majority holding bachelor's degrees or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 78 renowned liquor experts[30] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring corporate governance compliance[153] - The audit committee has reviewed the audited financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming consistency with the financial statements[148] - The company is registered in the Cayman Islands and was established on September 24, 2021[150] - The company’s shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023[151]