Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Net profit reached 280 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 378.0%, with a net profit margin of 4.0%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 360 million yuan, up 67.3% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [2][3] - The company continues to see accelerated growth in trading users and an increase in market share, with registered users reaching 126.40 million as of June 30, 2024, an increase of 11.10 million since the beginning of the year. The number of trading users in the past 12 months was 21.4 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.8% [3] - The company has effectively controlled costs and improved financial health, achieving a gross margin of 25.9% in H1 2024, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, which is better than market expectations [4][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 11.563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.42%. In 2023, revenue increased to 13.606 billion yuan, a growth of 17.67%. Forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.667 billion yuan, 16.145 billion yuan, and 17.769 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.80%, 10.07%, and 10.06% [2][9] - The company reported a net profit of 6.703 billion yuan in 2023, with a forecasted net profit of 577.40 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decrease of 91.39%. However, the adjusted net profit is expected to recover to 1.044 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.601 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 80.74% and 53.43% respectively [2][9] User Growth and Market Position - The company has expanded its store network, with 6,311 stores as of June 30, 2024, an increase of 402 stores since the beginning of the year. The demand for franchise applications has increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating strong franchise demand [3] - The company has also made significant strides in the new energy vehicle service sector, with service capabilities covering 73 cities and a user penetration rate of 8.4% as of June 30, 2024 [3] Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with a decrease in average rental costs per square meter by 6.7% year-on-year, while warehouse space increased by 5.9% [4][8] - The gross margin for the tire and chassis parts business has increased, driven by better supplier terms and a higher contribution from proprietary products, which typically have higher profit margins [4]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,126.2 million, representing a 9.3% increase from RMB 6,521.6 million in the same period of 2023[6]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 1,845.8 million, with a gross margin of 25.9%, up 1.7 percentage points from 24.2% in 2023[6]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 67.3% to RMB 358.2 million compared to RMB 214.0 million in the previous year[6]. - Operating profit increased significantly to RMB 211.9 million from RMB 66.7 million year-on-year[35]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 284.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 59.5 million in the same period of 2023, marking a significant increase[100]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 289,110 thousand for the first half of 2024, significantly higher than RMB 70,136 thousand in the first half of 2023, representing an increase of 312%[105]. - Adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS measure) for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 449.6 million, compared to RMB 351.8 million for the same period in 2023[58]. - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 449.6 million, compared to RMB 351.8 million in the previous year[35]. User Growth and Engagement - The number of registered users reached 126.4 million, a 20.7% increase from 104.8 million in 2023[8]. - The number of transaction users grew by 18.8% to 21.4 million from 18.0 million in the previous year[8]. - Monthly active users reached 11.5 million, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year growth[10]. Operational Expansion - The number of Tuhu workshop stores increased by 23.0% to 6,311, with franchise stores growing by 24.0% to 6,162[8]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company has expanded its store network to 6,311 locations, an increase of 402 stores compared to the end of 2023, covering over 1,700 county-level areas[14]. - The company has established partnerships with 12 strategic franchisees, including Dongfeng South and Sinopec, with 14 stores opened in collaboration with Dongfeng South by the end of June 2024[14]. - The average time from store application to signing has decreased from 73 days to 27 days, a 63% improvement, with franchise application volume up 22% year-on-year[15]. Product and Service Development - During the first half of 2024, the company launched new services and products, including a "Gold Medal Warranty" service in collaboration with over 20 tire companies[11]. - The company sold over 1.5 million self-controlled tires in the first half of 2024, leveraging partnerships with major domestic brands[18]. - The company has sold 21 million items from its own maintenance brand by June 30, 2024, covering 30 product categories[21]. - Online payment orders for car wash and light beauty services increased by 51% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, supported by enhanced customer experience initiatives[22]. - The company launched a new product line with 617 specialized items for a leading new energy vehicle brand[26]. Financial Position and Assets - Total non-current assets increased from RMB 3,493.4 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 4,075.8 million as of June 30, 2024[63]. - Current assets decreased from RMB 8,271.3 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 7,703.2 million as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to a reduction in cash and cash equivalents[64]. - Total equity increased from RMB 4,458.3 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 4,616.0 million as of June 30, 2024[65]. - Financial investments as of June 30, 2024, reached RMB 4.54 billion, an increase of 71.3% from RMB 2.65 billion as of December 31, 2023, attributed to better cash utilization[72]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 60.8% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 62.1% as of December 31, 2023[84]. Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash flow from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 718.7 million, slightly up from RMB 714.8 million for the same period in 2023[86]. - Net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1.98 billion, significantly higher than RMB 267.2 million for the same period in 2023[88]. - Net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 105.5 million, compared to RMB 7.8 million for the same period in 2023[89]. Shareholder and Corporate Governance - The company repurchased 12,286,900 Class A shares for a total expenditure of HKD 204 million in the first half of the year[34]. - The company did not declare or pay any dividends for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and 2023[122]. - The audit committee reviewed the unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2024, with no disagreements on accounting treatment[136]. - The independent auditor conducted a review of the interim financial data in accordance with the relevant standards, ensuring compliance with financial reporting requirements[137]. - The board expresses sincere gratitude to shareholders, management team, employees, business partners, and customers for their support and contributions[140]. Market and Strategic Initiatives - The company achieved over 100% growth in transaction volume on Douyin's local life service platform compared to the same period last year[12]. - The company has integrated charging service providers, establishing 46,000 charging stations, accounting for 28.3% of the national public charging station resources[26]. - The number of new energy payment users reached 1.85 million, with a penetration rate of 8.4% as of June 30[28]. - The company has established partnerships with two major commercial insurance companies to explore battery extended warranty services[25].

上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 08 月 16 日 途虎-W (09690) ——24H1 前瞻：自有品稳定毛利率抵抗行业下行冲击 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 15 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 16.00 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6035.27 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 37.70/9.01 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 129.90 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 743.98 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0914 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -65% -15% 35% 09/2610/2611/2612/2601/2602/2603/2604/2605/2606/2607/26 HSCEI 途虎-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 戴文杰 (8621)23 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2024 is expected to be 7.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, with an adjusted net profit of approximately 340 million yuan and a net profit margin of about 4.7% [1] - Despite a sluggish automotive aftermarket, the company continues to expand its store network, with an expected addition of around 1,000 new stores in 2024, bringing the total to over 6,000 stores as of May 2024 [1] - The company is projected to see improvements in gross margin and a decrease in expense ratios from 2024 to 2026, driven by an increase in self-owned brand revenue and enhanced bargaining power with suppliers [1][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 14.725 billion yuan, 16.486 billion yuan, and 18.623 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.26%, 11.96%, and 12.96% respectively [1][4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 796 million yuan, 1.234 billion yuan, and 1.652 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.43%, 55.0%, and 33.88% respectively [1][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 2.04 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.69, 9.48, and 7.08 [1][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic automotive aftermarket, actively expanding into the new energy sector [2] - The automotive service market in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and aging vehicles [2][18] - The company has established an integrated online and offline service platform, leading the industry in store count with 5,909 stores as of December 31, 2023 [2][7] - The company aims to expand its presence in lower-tier cities, with a target of reaching 8,909 stores by 2026 [2][34] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 700 million, 1.09 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.26, 11.08, and 7.75 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Automotive Service Platform - The company has developed a comprehensive online and offline automotive service platform, expanding its product and service offerings since its inception in 2011 [7] - The platform connects vehicle owners, suppliers, and service stores, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [7][21] 2. Automotive Service Market Potential - The automotive service market in China reached 1.24 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 10.1% from 2018 to 2022, and is expected to grow to 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027 [18] - The increase in vehicle ownership and average vehicle age is driving demand for automotive services, with the average age of vehicles projected to reach 8 years by 2027 [15][16] 3. Business Model and Growth - The company’s business model creates a positive feedback loop, enhancing user experience and driving growth through increased customer traffic and store expansion [30] - The number of registered users reached 115 million by the end of 2023, with a transaction user base of over 19.3 million, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [31] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, particularly in lower-tier cities, to capture a larger market share [34] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 14.64 billion, 16.20 billion, and 17.95 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The company’s gross margin has been improving, reaching 24.7% in 2023, driven by a higher proportion of automotive maintenance services [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price adjusted from HKD 26.00 to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 50.9% from the current price of HKD 15.90 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in average transaction value has temporarily disrupted revenue growth, but the trend of profit margin improvement remains intact due to supply chain optimization [1]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its factory store network and optimizing its product structure, aiming to open 1,000 new factory stores throughout the year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year to RMB 7.1 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 330 million, reflecting a 55% increase [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year for 2024, totaling RMB 14.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 740 million, both down by 7% from previous forecasts due to consumer preference for alternative products affecting average transaction value [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 14,592 million, down 7% from previous estimates [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 739 million, also a 7% decrease from prior predictions [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 25.61% in 2024E, up 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [3]. - For 2025E and 2026E, revenues are projected at RMB 16.6 billion and RMB 18.6 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.6 billion [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 16.24 HKD [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the automotive aftermarket is currently under pressure due to a trend of consumer downtrading, but there is optimism for long-term growth driven by the expansion of proprietary product categories and improved profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from changes in the automotive market structure, particularly as traditional dealership supply shrinks and third-party service providers gain market share [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 14.558 billion, 16.013 billion, and 17.934 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 10%, and 12% [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue of 11,563 million RMB, Net Profit of -2,136 million RMB - 2023A: Revenue of 13,606 million RMB, Net Profit of 6,703 million RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 14,558 million RMB, Net Profit of 716 million RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 16,013 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,068 million RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 17,934 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,370 million RMB [1][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to be 8.26, 0.88, 1.31, and 1.69 RMB for 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][5]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 16.7, 11.2, and 8.7 for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The automotive aftermarket is experiencing a decline in service visits, with a 1% year-on-year drop in the second quarter, indicating a challenging macro environment [2]. - The company is expanding its store presence in lower-tier cities, which is anticipated to drive steady business growth [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability through the continuous increase in proprietary product offerings and enhanced supply chain negotiation capabilities [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8][16]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as an independent automotive service provider, utilizing an integrated online and offline model to deliver standardized, high-quality services. It leverages its scale advantages to maintain strong bargaining power with suppliers and offers a comprehensive automotive service platform connecting car owners, suppliers, and service outlets [11][21]. - The automotive service market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from CNY 1,239.8 billion in 2022 to CNY 1,931.9 billion by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 9.0%. The company is well-positioned to capture market share as the market shifts from traditional 4S stores to integrated automotive service models [11][12]. - The company has established competitive barriers from three dimensions: franchisees, car owners, and supply chain. It attracts franchisees with strong profitability and rapid traffic generation, addresses car owners' pain points through standardized and efficient service, and has achieved scale effects in its supply chain [11][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on the automotive aftermarket and has become a leading O2O automotive service provider in China. It connects over 4,500 automotive parts suppliers and operates through its "Tuhu Car Maintenance" app and various service outlets [21][23]. Industry Situation - The automotive service market is expanding due to increasing vehicle ownership and aging vehicles. The company is expected to benefit from the transition to O2O models, with its market share projected to reach 58.1% by 2027 [11][12]. Core Advantages - The company has a strong appeal to franchisees, with average monthly gross profits exceeding CNY 150,000 per store. It also provides standardized, efficient services to car owners and has expanded its product offerings significantly, becoming the largest retailer of tires and engine oil in China [11][12][13]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 149.3 billion in 2024 to CNY 174.9 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from CNY 7.4 billion to CNY 17.3 billion. The company anticipates significant growth in high-margin services as brand recognition and trust increase [16][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the expected revenue growth and profitability improvements [1]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 7.11 to 7.17 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 10%, with an adjusted net profit of about 330 to 340 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 4.6% to 4.7% [1]. - The company's store expansion is a key driver for revenue growth, with an expected net increase of about 1,000 stores in 2024. However, short-term average transaction value (ATV) is under pressure due to weak domestic consumption and longer replacement cycles for products like tires and engine oil [1]. - Effective cost control and improved management efficiency are expected to enhance profitability, with a projected gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points in 2024 [1]. - The independent automotive aftermarket is expanding, and the company, as a leading Independent Aftermarket (IAM) player, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.6 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.89 billion yuan in 2024, 16.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.76 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 9%, 12%, and 13% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 670.3 million yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 85.2 million yuan in 2024, followed by recoveries to 135.7 million yuan in 2025 and 206 million yuan in 2026 [2]. Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios are 1.24 for 2023, 13.62 for 2024, 8.56 for 2025, and 5.64 for 2026, indicating a significant valuation change over the forecast period [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 30.55% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 49.28% in 2023 to 10.98% in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage and scale effects in the IAM sector, with a focus on product quality and user demand [1]. - The company is enhancing its brand portfolio and increasing the proportion of its own brands, which is expected to cater to the demand for cost-effective products [1].

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 途虎-W 恒生指数 -100% -50% 0% 50% 2023-09-26 2024-01-09 2024-04-23 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（港元） 16.200 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.12 / 7.44 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | --- | --- | |--------------------|----------------------| | | 132/ 121 | | 元） | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 37.70 / 9.01 | | 资产负债率(%) | 62.10 | | 市盈率 | 16.5 | | | 意像架构投资(香港)有 | | 第一大股东 | | | | 限公司 | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 研究助理:殷先伟 SAC 登记编号:S1340123080022 Email:yinxianwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《途虎-W（9690.HK）： IAM 龙头发力万 亿汽后蓝海市场，加快 ...