上证报中国证券网讯 12月15日，恒生指数低开1%，恒生科技指数跌1.34%。京东健康跌近6%，百度集 团-SW跌超3%，理想汽车-W、阿里巴巴-W跌超2%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 12月15日，恒生指数低开1%，恒生科技指数跌1.34%。京东健康跌近6%，百度集 团-SW跌超3%，理想汽车-W、阿里巴巴-W跌超2%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Alibaba has established the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" to develop an AI super app, aiming to enhance its AI to consumer (AI to C) strategy and create a comprehensive AI assistant for users [10][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5.2 model, which is optimized for professional applications, marking a shift towards specialized capabilities in the AI model competition [13][14]. - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, signaling a shift in export policy towards conditional release rather than outright restrictions [17][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on companies related to the Qianwen and domestic computing power supply chain, including Data Port, Qianfang Technology, Guangyun Technology, Boyan Technology, Shiji Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame Intelligence [3]. Industry News - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end Business Group aims to integrate various consumer-facing services into a single AI super app, enhancing user engagement and accessibility [10][12]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has set new benchmarks in various professional tasks, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [14][16]. - The U.S. has permitted NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are crucial for AI model training, reflecting a strategic adjustment in technology export policies [17][18]. Company Dynamics - The establishment of the Qianwen C-end Business Group by Alibaba represents a significant organizational shift aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities and market presence [12]. - OpenAI's rapid iteration of its models, including the recent release of GPT-5.2, highlights the intense competition in the AI sector and the need for continuous innovation [14][16]. - The policy change regarding the export of H200 chips is expected to alleviate some high-end computing power shortages in China, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic advancements in chip technology [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [44]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown resilience, with a 0.26% increase in the media index, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.33% [8][6]. - Disney's partnership with OpenAI marks a significant shift towards AI-driven content creation, with a $1 billion investment aimed at integrating AI into its media operations [29][30]. - The gaming market remains strong, with Tencent's products dominating the iOS game sales charts, indicating robust consumer engagement [16][18]. - The film market is recovering, with total box office revenue reaching 448.68 billion yuan, approximately 79% of the 2019 levels, showcasing a steady recovery in audience attendance [21][24]. Market Performance Review - The media index increased by 0.26% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.08%, placing the media sector 8th among all sectors [8][6]. - The gaming market continues to thrive, with top titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force" maintaining strong sales positions [16][17]. - The film market's total box office for 2025 has reached 448.68 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 79% compared to 2019 [21][24]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Disney's strategic partnership with OpenAI is expected to reshape content creation in the media industry, leveraging AI for enhanced storytelling [29][30]. - The upcoming release of "Avatar 3" has generated significant pre-sale interest, with ticket sales exceeding 11 million yuan, positively impacting related stock prices [29]. - The gaming title "Ningchao" won the "Player's Voice" award at TGA, highlighting the growing recognition of Chinese games in the global market [30].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股科网股午后震荡走低，百度(09888.HK)跌超5%，快手(01024.HK)跌超4%，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、 小米集团(01810.HK)等跟跌。 ...

最近，一直很低调的阿里主席蔡崇信，在香港大学做了一场演讲，台下座无虚席。 他在演讲中聊了很多，关于AI、关于阿里、关于中美博弈。 今天是周六，我最想和你聊的，是他关于普通人如何做选择的观点。 他大概意思是说，真正好的选择，是你能承受它的下限，却看不到它的上限。 什么意思？ 用他的亲身经历解释就是，他当初放弃投行副总裁的职位，放弃百万年薪，去杭州加入阿里，只拿500 块钱的月薪，那是因为他算清了一笔账。 他觉得，自己加入阿里，即使什么事都没做成，失败了，那顶多不过是回到原点，风险有限且清晰。 但是，如果一旦成了，那带来的收益却是无限的，那一定是一家足以改变未来的大企业。 看完这个，我感受颇深。我也是个老阿里人了，趁着这个机会，和你谈谈我的几点思考。 做最坏的打算，尽最大的努力 人在做重大选择时，往往很容易被未知和不确定性吓住。 我们想改变，可是又怕失败。想尝试新的行业、新的赛道，却担心职业前景不理想。 而大部分普通人的问题就在于，他只幻想最好的结果，却回避思考最坏的可能。 结果就是，他心里没底，每走一步，都心惊胆战。 我经常跟团队小伙伴说，所谓"all in"，不是莽撞，而是我知道代价，我能承受后果，所以我能毫 ...

科技股早盘承压走低，恒科指数一度跌近2%，成份股方面，截至发稿，华虹半导体(01347)跌6.05%， 报67.55港元；阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌2.86%，报149.7港元；腾讯(00700)跌1.46%，报607港元。 消息面上，上周五，博通和甲骨文两大科技巨头利空消息相继引发的AI泡沫担忧再度席卷市场。博通 业绩电话会后跌11%，传出数据中心延期的甲骨文跌4.5%、财报后两日跌近15%。中信建投（601066） 证券认为，短期维度，美科技股调整或对港股形成拖累。中长期维度，今年港股流动性充裕，南向资金 持续流入，目前仍处于美联储降息周期，港股资金面和估值维度均有支撑，具有强产业逻辑板块值得持 续关注。 ...

Group 1 - The retail sector experienced a significant surge, with Baida Group hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Maoye Commercial, Dongbai Group, and Yonghui Supermarket also seeing notable increases [2] - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16% [5][6] - The coal futures contract saw a daily increase of 4.00%, currently priced at 1070.50 CNY per ton [4] Group 2 - The storage chip sector opened lower, with companies like Shannon Chip and Jiangbolong dropping over 8% and 6% respectively [3] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.34%, affected by declines in major companies like JD Health and Baidu [10][11] - The controlled nuclear fusion sector saw multiple stocks open high, with companies like Xue Ren Group and Hualing Cable reaching their daily limit [4]

大摩开门会：中国 AI 算力的供给及需求 251212 摘要 中国 AI 算力供不应求，尽管算法优化，AI 效率芯片仍紧缺。腾讯、阿里 巴巴等企业面临 GPU 供应限制，资本市场担忧芯片短缺，未来三年混合 云厂商资本支出预计增长至 4,500 亿人民币，但仍低于美国大厂水平。 H200 芯片在性能上领先，国内尚无替代品，需求量大。监管层或允许 企业采购 H200，以审批形式平衡模型玩家需求与国产芯片发展，放开 H200 供应将利好云厂商及下游模型和应用。 放开 H200 供应后，国内数据中心需求预计显著提高，过去需求受芯片 供给限制。推荐腾讯、阿里巴巴等超大型公司，以及 GDS、VNET 等数 据中心公司。 受 GPU 限制，中国云厂商倾向于在海外数据中心进行模型训练，国内数 据中心主要用于推理。台积电为中国市场生产芯片的计划将延续至 2026 上半年，每个 H200 中端单元成本约 1,300 美元。 中国需加强本土化生产能力，天生、阿里巴巴平头哥、百度昆仑等企业 开发专用集成电路（ASIC），调整设计以符合出口管制，减少对进口依 赖。中芯国际计划到 2027 年月产能达 3-4 万晶圆。 在 H200 板 ...

H200 最新情况以及国内 AI 芯片格局趋势推演 20251214 摘要 受政策影响，2026 年英伟达 H200 在中国出货量预计在 120 万至 200 万片之间，主要受国企和国资背景单位限制，民营互联网企业受限较小。 互联网行业采购量占国内 AI 芯片需求的 45%-50%，是需求趋势的关键 驱动因素。 2026 年国内 AI 芯片总需求预计 420 万片，国产芯片约占 300 万片。 若英伟达完全供货，将占据超过 55%的市场份额，挤压国产芯片约 120 万片市场空间。华为 920C、BN166 和木兮 500 核分等国产芯片在理 论算力上接近 H100 的 80%，但综合性能仍有差距。 除互联网外，运营商和智算中心等领域需求快速增长，占整体需求的 25%左右，预计未来三年在人工智能基础设施上的投入将高速增长，支 出占比可能超过 50%，主要原因是国内 AR 算力投入与国际水平相比仍 较低。 目前国内 AI 芯片性能大致达到 H200 的 60%，部分量产产品达 H100 的 80%。预计 2026 年将有七八家厂商推出计算能力达 600-800T 的产 品，性能基本对标甚至超越 H200，完全超越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector has shown significant upward movement, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases, indicating a positive trend in the market [3]. Retail Sector - The retail sector saw a sharp rise, with companies like Baida Group hitting the daily limit, and others such as Maoye Commercial, Dongbai Group, and Yonghui Supermarket also experiencing gains [3]. - The retail index recorded a 1.20% increase, reflecting overall positive sentiment in the sector [4]. Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector opened lower, with companies like Shannon Chip and Jiangbolong seeing declines of over 8% and 6% respectively, indicating potential challenges in this segment [5]. Coal and Nuclear Fusion Sectors - The main contract for coking coal surged by 4.00%, reaching 1070.50 CNY per ton, suggesting strong demand or supply constraints in the coal market [6]. - The nuclear fusion sector saw multiple stocks open high, with companies like Snowman Group and Huazhong Cable approaching their daily limits, indicating investor interest and optimism in this emerging technology [6]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.34%, reflecting broader market challenges [12]. - Notable declines were observed in major companies such as JD Health and Baidu, which fell by over 5% and 3% respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the tech sector [12].