Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (9988 HK) [1][7] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q1 total revenue is expected to reach RMB 2 494 billion (YoY +7% QoQ +12%) with adjusted EBITA declining 11% YoY to RMB 405 billion and adjusted EBITA margin at 16% [5] - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 1 200 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 41% [5] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at -13% [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 million in FY2024A to RMB 1 018 411 million in FY2025E RMB 1 131 199 million in FY2026E and RMB 1 256 349 million in FY2027E [3] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow from RMB 79 741 million in FY2024A to RMB 87 017 million in FY2025E RMB 106 434 million in FY2026E and RMB 121 033 million in FY2027E [3] - Diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 3 99 in FY2024A to RMB 4 36 in FY2025E RMB 5 33 in FY2026E and RMB 6 06 in FY2027E [3] - P E ratio is expected to decrease from 18 27x in FY2024A to 16 74x in FY2025E 13 69x in FY2026E and 12 04x in FY2027E [3] Business Segment Analysis - Taobao Tmall Group's GMV is expected to grow 9% YoY in FY2025Q1 with customer management revenue (including commissions) growing 4% YoY to RMB 828 billion [1] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion in FY2025Q1 driven by strong growth in international retail commerce (YoY +41%) and steady growth in international wholesale commerce (YoY +10%) [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion in FY2025Q1 with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report gives Alibaba a target market capitalization of RMB 2 127 1 billion for FY2025 corresponding to a target price of RMB 110 yuan HKD 118 per share [7]

重要声明 本报告由国信证券股份有限公司（已具备中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格）制作；报告版权归 国信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"我公司"）所有。本报告仅供我公司客户使用，本公司不会因接收人 收到本报告而视其为客户。未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式使用、复制或传播。任何有 关本报告的摘要或节选都不代表本报告正式完整的观点，一切须以我公司向客户发布的本报告完整版本 为准。 本报告基于已公开的资料或信息撰写，但我公司不保证该资料及信息的完整性、准确性。本报告所载的 信息、资料、建议及推测仅反映我公司于本报告公开发布当日的判断，在不同时期，我公司可能撰写并 发布与本报告所载资料、建议及推测不一致的报告。我公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料处于最新状态； 我公司可能随时补充、更新和修订有关信息及资料，投资者应当自行关注相关更新和修订内容。我公司 或关联机构可能会持有本报告中所提到的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供或争取 提供投资银行、财务顾问或金融产品等相关服务。本公司的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务 部门可能独立做出与本报告中意见或建议不一致的投资决策。 本报告仅供参考之用，不构成 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 1. 投资评级的比较和评级标准： | 类 别 | 评 级 | 说 明 | | 以报告发布后的 6 个月内的市场表现 | | 优于大市 | 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅在 10% 以上； | | 为比较标准，报告发布日后 6 个月内 | 股票投资评 | 中性 | 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅介于 -10%与 10% 之间； | | 的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅 | 级 | 弱于大市 | 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅低于 -10% 及以下； | | 相对同期市场基准指数的涨跌幅； | | 无评级 | 对于个股未来 6 个月市场表现与基准指数相比无明确观点。 | | 2. 市场基准指数的比较标准： 股市场以海通综指为基准；香港市 | | 优于大市 | 预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整 ...

深圳 地址：深圳市福田区福田街道金田路 2026 号能源大厦南塔楼 邮编：518033 传真：86-755-83516207 上海 地址：上海市浦东新区世博馆路 200 号 A 座 8 层 邮编：200126 传真：021-31829681 网址：http://www.cgws.com | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------| | | 北京 | | | 16 层 | | 地址：北京市西城区西直门外大街 112 号阳光大厦 8 层 | | | 邮编： | 100044 | | | 传真： | 86-10-88366686 | P.11 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 P.3 电商业务有所回暖，在港双重主要上市有望落地 积极投入下电商 GMV 同比实现双位数增速，期待新广告产品上线带动的货 币化率提升。阿里巴巴淘天集团 FY24Q4 线上 GMV 及订单量实现同比双位 数增长；实现收入 932 亿元，同比增长 3.7%。我们认为在公司确立 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW, indicating an expected performance that is significantly better than the market benchmark index by over 15% [20][30]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 211.9 billion yuan for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 7%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 11% to 24.418 billion yuan [1][21]. - The focus on strategic priority businesses has led to a double-digit growth in domestic e-commerce GMV, driven by improvements in user shopping experience and product efficiency [5][18]. - The international business segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 45%, with international retail business growing by 56% [18]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: - Chinese commercial segment revenue was 93.216 billion yuan, up 4% year-over-year [18]. - International commercial segment revenue reached 27.448 billion yuan, up 45% [18]. - Local life services revenue increased by 19% to 14.628 billion yuan [18]. - Cainiao revenue grew by 30% to 24.557 billion yuan [18]. - Cloud business revenue was 25.595 billion yuan, a 3% increase [18]. - The entertainment segment revenue slightly declined by 1% to 4.945 billion yuan [18]. - The report forecasts net profits for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 140.5 billion yuan, 151.5 billion yuan, and 164.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10X, 9.3X, and 8.6X [22].

阿里巴巴-SW 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 公司研究 | 季报点评 ⚫ 持续推进回购+派息，关注 8 月香港双重主要上市。1）回购：FY4Q24 公司回购 48 亿美元（整个财年回购 125 亿美元）。2）派息：批准 FY24 财年股息 40 亿美元。 3）香港双重主要上市：预计 8 月底完成转换。 ⚫ 我们调整公司 FY2025-2027 收入预测为 10338 /11285/12268 亿元（原 FY25-26 预 测为 10222 /10960 亿元），经调整净利润为 1523/1738/1975 亿元（原 FY25-26 预 测为 1572/1702 亿元）。PE 估值计算公司市值 16750 亿元，对应每股价值 95.06 港 元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.10），维持"买入"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|---------|---------|---------------- ...

海外公司报告 | 公司动态研究 分析师声明 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 一般声明 特别声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------------------|----------|-----------------------------| | 投资评级声明 | 类别 说明 评级 | | 体系 | | | | 买入 | 预期股价相对收益 20% 以上 | | | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 增持 | 预期股价相对收益 10%-20% | | 股票投资评级 | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 持有 | 预期股价相对收益 -10%-10% | | | | 卖出 | 预期股价相对收益 -10% 以下 | | | | 强于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 行业投资评级 | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 生指数的涨跌幅 | 中性 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%-5% | | | | 弱于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 以下 | | --- | --- ...

相关研究 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 财务报表和主要财务比率 2024 年 05 月 27 日 FY2024 941,168 586,323 52,256 115,141 41,985 21,592 -10,521 113,350 -3,807 7,947 101,596 22,529 -7,735 71,332 -8,409 79,741 165,028 158,359 7.78 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-----------|-----------| | | | | | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 1,014,727 | 1,091,710 | 1,169,257 | | 660,828 | 710,562 | 760,192 | | 64,417 | 69,304 | 74,227 | | 118,702 | 122,272 | 130,957 | | 40,589 | 43,668 | 46,770 | | 12,177 | 13,101 | 14,031 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 118,014 | ...

紐交所代碼：BABA 港交所代號：9988 （港幣櫃台） 89988 （人民幣櫃台） 財務年度報告 2024 2024 財務年度報告 阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司 94299 (Alibaba AR_Chi) (210x285) \ 21/05/2024 00. Cover (Chi)\ M15 \ P. 1 94299 (Alibaba AR_Chi) (210x285) \ 21/05/2024 00. Cover (Chi)\ M15 \ P. 3 阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司 | 2 | 我們的使命 | 153 主要股東及關聯交易 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | 我們的願景 | 169 給股東的其他資料 | | 5 | 我們的價值觀 | 183 免除與豁免 | | 6 | 2024財務年度回顧 | 185 風險因素 | | 8 | 集團主席和首席執行官致股東的信 | 250 釋義 | | 12 | 業務概覽 | 256 財務報表 | | 80 | 管理層討論與分析 | 344 進一步資料 | | | 132 董事、高管及員工 | | 我們的使命 我們的願景 相會、工作和生活在阿里巴巴， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $115.00 USD / 113.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% / 34% from the current stock price of $86.28 USD / 84.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 1,023.89 billion CNY, 1,100.12 billion CNY, and 1,195.08 billion CNY respectively. Operating profit is forecasted to be 120.47 billion CNY, 145.77 billion CNY, and 169.02 billion CNY for the same period. The diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be 5.1 USD, 6.2 USD, and 7.3 USD respectively [1][17]. - The e-commerce segment has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in GMV, suggesting a potential turning point after years of intense competition. The second half of the year is expected to be particularly important for performance [14]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns and is set to complete its dual primary listing in Hong Kong by August 2024, which may lead to inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [14]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of 221.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Operating profit was 14.77 billion CNY, a decrease of 3% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITA fell by 5% to 23.97 billion CNY, primarily due to increased investments in e-commerce and the withdrawal of IPO-related equity incentives for Cainiao [14][15]. - The company has repurchased $12.5 billion worth of shares, reducing the number of outstanding shares by 5.1% [14]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported a revenue increase of 4% to 93.22 billion CNY, with customer management revenue growing by 5% to 63.57 billion CNY. The EBITA margin for this segment was 41% [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 3% to 25.60 billion CNY, with a significant increase in AI-related revenue, which saw triple-digit growth year-on-year [15]. Segment Performance - The e-commerce segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with overseas e-commerce revenue increasing by 45% to 27.45 billion CNY. Retail orders overall grew by 20% [15]. - The logistics segment, Cainiao, reported a revenue increase of 30% to 24.56 billion CNY, driven by cross-border logistics services [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to see an increasing share of revenue, with expectations for improved profit margins as project-based contracts decrease [15].