Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 280.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 277.37 billion [10][29] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was RMB 51.1 billion, up 7% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations [10][29] - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditure, which rose to RMB 31.7 billion, compared to RMB 17.5 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a focus on meeting customer demand [25][29] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba's revenue from its main business segments showed robust growth, with Taobao and Tmall generating RMB 1361 billion (up 5% YoY), international digital commerce at RMB 378 billion (up 32% YoY), and cloud services at RMB 31.7 billion (up 13% YoY) [10][14][29] - The overall EBITA margin for the company is in a recovery phase, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability [29] Business Segment Performance - Taobao's customer management revenue grew by 9%, driven by an increase in the number of 88VIP members to 49 million, reflecting strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival [14][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 32% increase in revenue, primarily due to strong cross-border business performance [19][29] - The local life business, including Ele.me, reported a 12% revenue increase, with losses narrowing significantly [21][29] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth of 13% year-on-year indicates a return to double-digit growth, with AI being emphasized as a core strategic focus [18][29] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains EPS forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 at RMB 8.14, RMB 8.82, and RMB 9.55 respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP PE ratios of 15.8, 14.6, and 13.5 [29][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in FY2025 Q3, reaching RMB 280.1 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 277.37 billion. Non-GAAP net profit also rose by 7% year-on-year to RMB 51.1 billion, exceeding the expected RMB 46.13 billion [10][29] - The report highlights that the Taobao and Tmall business segment's revenue grew by 5% to RMB 1360.91 billion, driven by an increase in customer management revenue, which rose by 9% [14][29] - The report emphasizes the strategic focus on e-commerce and cloud computing, with AI-driven initiatives being a core strategy moving forward [18][29] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In FY2025 Q3, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 280.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 51.1 billion, also up 7% year-on-year [10][29] - The revenue breakdown for major business segments includes Taobao and Tmall at RMB 1361 billion (5% growth), international digital commerce at RMB 378 billion (32% growth), and cloud services at RMB 317 billion (13% growth) [14][29] Business Segment Performance - Taobao and Tmall's EBITA margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 44.88%, indicating increased investment in customer acquisition and technology services [14][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 32% revenue increase, primarily due to strong performance in cross-border business [19][29] - The local life business reported a 12% revenue increase, with losses narrowing significantly, while the logistics segment (Cainiao) experienced a slight revenue decline of 1% [21][29] Future Outlook and Valuation - The report maintains EPS forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 at RMB 8.14, RMB 8.82, and RMB 9.55, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) of 15.8, 14.6, and 13.5 [29][32] - The company is expected to continue its share buyback and dividend distribution, supporting the "Buy" rating [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's FY25Q3 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 280.2 billion yuan (yoy +8%), slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 1% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 62.1 billion yuan (yoy +4%, margin 22%) and 51.1 billion yuan (yoy +6%, margin 18%), respectively, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2.7% and 12.2% [4] - The cloud business returned to double-digit growth, with revenue of 31.7 billion yuan (yoy +13%) and adjusted EBITA of 3.14 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - FY25Q3 revenue was 280.2 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 8%, slightly above expectations [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was 62.1 billion yuan, with a margin of 22%, and adjusted net profit was 51.1 billion yuan, with a margin of 18% [4] Segment Performance - Taobao Group revenue was 136.1 billion yuan (yoy +5%), exceeding expectations by 3.3% [5] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group revenue was 37.8 billion yuan (yoy +32%), exceeding expectations by 4.4% [5] - Local Life Group revenue was 16.99 billion yuan (yoy +12%), slightly below expectations by 1.2% [5] - Cainiao Group revenue was 28.2 billion yuan (yoy -1%), below expectations by 9.9% [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue was 31.7 billion yuan (yoy +13%), exceeding expectations by 3.1% [5] - Digital Entertainment Group revenue was 5.4 billion yuan (yoy +8%), exceeding expectations by 1.1% [5] - Other revenue was 53.1 billion yuan (yoy +13%), exceeding expectations by 7.1% [5] Growth Drivers - Taobao accelerated growth with revenue of 136.1 billion yuan, driven by GMV and take rate improvements [6] - The AIDC business is expected to achieve quarterly profitability next fiscal year [6] - The cloud business saw a resurgence with double-digit growth, and AI-related products maintained triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are 971.13 billion yuan, 983.82 billion yuan, and 1,088.52 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 3.2%, 1.3%, and 10.6% respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 159.96 billion yuan, 172.17 billion yuan, and 195.93 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 1.6%, 7.6%, and 13.8% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for Q3 2025 (ending December 2024) reached 280.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.33 billion, up 7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on AI infrastructure and has committed to significant capital expenditures, with plans to invest over 1 trillion RMB in cloud and AI facilities over the next three years [2][3]. - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 997.7 billion, 1,084.25 billion, and 1,187.65 billion respectively, with non-GAAP net profits projected at 162.19 billion, 173.92 billion, and 192.62 billion [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, revenue by business line was as follows: Taobao/Tmall: 136.1 billion (+5%), International Commerce: 37.8 billion (+32%), Alibaba Cloud: 31.7 billion (+13%), Local Services: 17 billion (+12%), Cainiao: 28.2 billion (-1%), and Digital Entertainment: 5.4 billion (+8%) [1]. - The adjusted EBITA profit margins for each segment were 45%, -13%, 10%, -4%, 1%, and -6% respectively [1]. AI Strategy - Alibaba has launched new AI models, Qwen2.5-VL and Qwen2.5-Max, achieving leading results in benchmark tests. The company aims to establish itself as a key player in AI infrastructure [2][3]. - The company has seen over 290,000 enterprises and developers accessing its Qwen API, indicating strong demand for its AI capabilities [2]. Future Projections - The report estimates Alibaba's reasonable market value to exceed 3 trillion RMB, with target prices set at 169 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 174 USD for the US stock [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming years are 8.4, 9.1, and 10.0 RMB for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for 3QFY25 reached 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by significant contributions from Taobao, AIDC, cloud intelligence group, and other segments [1][10] - The adjusted EBITA margin was 19.6%, with a non-GAAP net profit of 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase primarily due to changes in equity investments [1][10] - The company is focusing on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core business areas while continuing to reduce costs in non-core operations [4][23] Summary by Sections Taobao Group - Taobao Group's revenue for the quarter was 136.1 billion yuan, up 5% year-over-year, with a customer management revenue (CMR) growth of 9% driven by an increase in GMV and take rate [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao reached 44.9%, a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, indicating improved monetization strategies [14] Cloud Computing - The cloud business revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [3][16] - Alibaba Cloud holds a 33% market share in the domestic cloud service market and is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditures (CAPEX) to support AI initiatives, with future CAPEX projected to exceed the total of the past ten years [3][19] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027 have been adjusted to 997.4 billion, 1,096.6 billion, and 1,205.5 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 1.1%, 1.5%, and 2.0% respectively [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 151.3 billion, 165.7 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with adjustments of 2.0%, 2.2%, and 1.1% respectively [4][23] Market Position - Alibaba's strategy emphasizes user-centric approaches and AI-driven growth, with ongoing efforts to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [23] - The company is also exploring various AI application scenarios across its ecosystem, including e-commerce, consumer interaction, and enterprise solutions [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 7.6% year-on-year for Q3 FY2025, with a significant net profit increase of 239.1% [1][2] - The overall performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong results from its core businesses, Taobao and cloud services [2][3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, reflecting positive trends in both Taobao and cloud business [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of FY2025, Alibaba achieved a revenue of CNY 759.89 billion, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 117.09 billion, up 53.1% [1] - In Q3 FY2025 alone, revenue reached CNY 280.15 billion, marking a 7.6% increase, while net profit soared to CNY 48.95 billion, a 239.1% rise [1][9] Business Segments - Taobao Group's customer management revenue grew by 9% year-on-year in Q3 FY2025, benefiting from increased online GMV and improved take rates [2] - The Cloud Intelligence Group reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth to CNY 31.74 billion, with external customer revenue increasing by 11% [3] Profitability Forecasts - The report projects non-GAAP net profits for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be CNY 168.19 billion, CNY 178.16 billion, and CNY 186.84 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 8.4%, 5.3%, and 1.4% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Alibaba's e-commerce profitability has exceeded expectations, with a comprehensive focus on AI driving a reassessment of value [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 1,003.56 billion in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [7] - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2025-2027 is set at HKD 151.73 billion, HKD 170.68 billion, and HKD 189.13 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -3.7%, 12.5%, and 10.8% respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2025Q3 revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 6%, outperforming Bloomberg consensus expectations [5] - The customer management revenue for Taobao increased by 9.4% year-on-year, driven by the contribution from technology service fees and improved penetration rates [5] - The international business group reported a revenue growth of 32% year-on-year, while the cloud intelligence group saw a 13% increase in revenue, with AI-related products experiencing triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters [5] Strategic Focus - The long-term goal for Taobao remains stable market share, with an expected recovery in monetization rates in 2025 due to the iteration of advertising products and increased technology service fees [6] - The international e-commerce segment is expected to achieve breakeven in FY2026 for its B2C business [6] - Significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure are anticipated, with projected expenditures over the next three years exceeding the total of the past decade [6] Shareholder Returns - The remaining share buyback program is valued at USD 20.7 billion, approximately 6% of the current market capitalization, valid until March 2027 [6]

股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 阿里巴巴-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 商贸零售/互联网电商 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 电商盈利超预期改善，全面布局 AI 驱动价值重估 2025 年 02 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/2/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 138.50 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 139.60/65.800 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 26,325.55 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 26,325.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 190.08 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 190.08 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 29.09 | 《FY2025Q2 业绩符合预期，关注电商 竞争格局 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.18 《国内电商份额趋稳，待货币化率提 升驱动盈利拐点 —港股公司信息更 新报告》-2024.8.17 《电商战略成效初现，双重上市有望 驱动流动性改善—港股公司信息更新 ...

Revenue Performance - Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 280.15 billion (USD 38.38 billion), representing an 8% year-over-year growth[6]. - Customer management revenue for Taobao Group grew by 9% year-over-year to RMB 100.79 billion (USD 13.81 billion), driven by online GMV growth and an increase in take rate[8]. - AIDC revenue increased by 32% year-over-year to RMB 37.76 billion (USD 5.17 billion), primarily due to strong performance in cross-border business[9]. - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue was RMB 31.74 billion (USD 4.35 billion), reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth[10]. - The overall revenue for the quarter, excluding income from Alibaba's consolidated businesses, achieved a double-digit year-over-year growth of 11%, primarily driven by the double-digit growth in public cloud business revenue, including an increase in AI-related product adoption[12]. - Revenue from the China retail business was RMB 129,516 million (USD 17,743 million), a 5% increase compared to RMB 123,762 million in the same period last year[29]. - The international retail business generated revenue of RMB 31,553 million (USD 4,323 million), marking a significant 36% increase from RMB 23,260 million in the previous year[35]. - The Local Life Group reported a revenue increase of 12% year-over-year to RMB 16.988 billion (USD 2.327 billion), driven by overall order growth from Amap and Ele.me, as well as increased revenue from marketing services[15]. - Total revenue for the company reached RMB 280,154 million (USD 38,381 million), representing an 8% year-over-year increase[24]. - Revenue from the China wholesale business increased by 24% to RMB 6,575 million (USD 901 million) from RMB 5,308 million year-over-year[32]. - The revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 5,438 million (USD 745 million), an increase of 8% compared to RMB 5,040 million in the same period of 2023[44]. - The revenue for all other segments for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 53,102 million (USD 7,275 million), a 13% increase from RMB 47,023 million in the same period of 2023[46]. - Total revenue for the nine months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 759,893 million, a 6% increase from RMB 719,294 million in the same period of 2023[105]. - The international retail business segment saw a revenue increase of 36% year-over-year, reaching RMB 80,862 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024[105]. - The cloud intelligence group reported a 9% increase in revenue, totaling RMB 87,901 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024[105]. Profitability Metrics - Operating profit increased by 83% year-over-year to RMB 41.21 billion (USD 5.65 billion), primarily due to a decrease in intangible asset impairment and an increase in adjusted EBITA[6]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 48.95 billion (USD 6.70 billion), with a year-over-year increase of 333%[6]. - Operating profit for the quarter increased by 83% year-over-year to RMB 41.205 billion (USD 5.645 billion), with an operating margin rising from 9% to 15%[20]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders surged by 239% year-over-year to RMB 48.945 billion (USD 6.705 billion)[20]. - Adjusted EBITA for the company was RMB 54,853 million (USD 7,515 million), reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth[27]. - The adjusted EBITA for the cloud intelligence group was RMB 3,138 million (USD 430 million), a 33% increase compared to RMB 2,364 million in the previous year[39]. - The adjusted EBITA for the local life group improved to a loss of RMB 596 million (USD 82 million), significantly better than the loss of RMB 2,068 million in the same period last year[43]. - The adjusted EBITA for the international digital commerce group was a loss of RMB 4,952 million (USD 678 million), widening from a loss of RMB 3,146 million in the previous year due to increased investments[37]. - The company reported a consolidated operating profit of RMB 112,440 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024, a 14% increase from RMB 98,585 million in the same period of 2023[108]. - The adjusted EBITA% showed a negative growth rate due to an increase in losses year-over-year[109]. - The adjusted EBITA% loss narrowed, indicating a positive growth rate in comparison to the previous year[109]. Cash Flow and Investments - Free cash flow decreased by 31% year-over-year to RMB 39.02 billion (USD 5.35 billion), mainly due to increased spending on cloud infrastructure[7]. - Net cash flow from operating activities for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 70,915 million (USD 9,715 million), a 10% increase from RMB 64,716 million in 2023, while free cash flow decreased by 31% to RMB 39,020 million (USD 5,346 million)[71]. - The net cash flow used in investing activities for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 111,003 million (USD 15,207 million), primarily reflecting an increase in short-term investments of RMB 79,819 million (USD 10,935 million) and capital expenditures of RMB 31,775 million (USD 4,353 million)[72]. - The net cash flow generated from financing activities for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 14,251 million (USD 1,952 million), mainly reflecting net proceeds from the issuance of unsecured senior notes of RMB 36,047 million (USD 4,938 million), offset by cash payments for the repayment of unsecured senior notes of RMB 16,220 million (USD 2,222 million) and cash used for share repurchases of RMB 9,189 million (USD 1,259 million)[74]. - Cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and other financial investments amounted to RMB 610,041 million (USD 83,575 million) as of December 31, 2024, down from RMB 617,230 million in March 2024, primarily due to cash expenditures for share repurchases and dividends[70]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 205,966 million as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 294,929 million at the beginning of the period, a decline of 30.1%[94]. - Free cash flow for the nine months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 70,127 million, a significant decrease of 50% from RMB 140,849 million in the same period of 2023[103]. Shareholder Returns and Buybacks - The company repurchased a total of 119 million shares for a total price of USD 1.3 billion, representing a 0.6% net decrease in shares outstanding compared to September 30, 2024[18]. - The company has a remaining buyback capacity of USD 20.7 billion under its authorized share repurchase program, valid until March 2027[18]. Employee and Corporate Strategy - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of employees was 194,320, down from 197,991 as of September 30, 2024[75]. - The company plans to continue focusing on e-commerce and cloud computing strategies to drive long-term growth[4]. - The company aims to build future business infrastructure and envisions a long-term presence, aspiring to be a good company for 102 years[79]. Financial Reporting and Metrics - The company emphasizes the importance of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITA, and non-GAAP net profit as key indicators to identify fundamental business trends and provide practical information regarding business performance[83]. - Non-GAAP financial metrics should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for GAAP measures, as they may not have standard meanings under GAAP[84]. - The financial data presented includes conversions of RMB amounts to USD and HKD for reader convenience, using specific exchange rates as of December 31, 2024[80]. - The company warns that forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ significantly from those projected[81]. Impairments and Expenses - The impairment of intangible assets for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 2,062 million (USD 282 million), a significant decrease of 86% from RMB 14,601 million in the same period of 2023[56]. - The goodwill impairment for the same period was RMB 6,171 million (USD 845 million), a decrease of 27% from RMB 8,490 million in the same period of 2023[56]. - Operating costs for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 162,524 million (USD 22,266 million), accounting for 58.0% of revenue, down from 60.0% in the same period of 2023[50]. - Product development expenses for the same period were RMB 14,662 million (USD 2,009 million), maintaining a ratio of 5.2% of revenue, unchanged from the same period in 2023[51]. - Sales and marketing expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 42,675 million (USD 5,846 million), representing 15.2% of revenue, up from 13.0% in the same period of 2023[51]. - General and administrative expenses for the same period were RMB 10,851 million (USD 1,487 million), accounting for 3.9% of revenue, down from 4.3% in the same period of 2023[52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [4]. Core Insights - Alibaba is positioned as a low-valuation, high-growth potential star in the market, focusing on its core businesses of e-commerce, cloud, and logistics [2][7]. - The company has made significant organizational adjustments to stabilize revenue growth in its Taobao and Tmall businesses, while also enhancing shareholder returns [2][18]. - The Qwen AI model is recognized for its leading capabilities internationally, with expectations for accelerated growth in the intelligent cloud business due to advancements in AI [2][45]. Summary by Sections Business Focus and Revenue Stability - Alibaba has restructured to focus on e-commerce, cloud, and logistics, with core business revenue accounting for over 73% of total income [19][24]. - The Taobao and Tmall group's revenue is expected to stabilize, driven by improved operations and a return of small and medium merchants [2][18]. - The company has successfully maintained its GMV share, with recent quarters showing growth exceeding that of the overall retail market [28][30]. AI and Cloud Business Growth - The Qwen model is among the top in international rankings, contributing positively to the cloud business's revenue growth [46][51]. - The intelligent cloud business is projected to see significant revenue increases, with expected growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 18% for FY2025-2027 [62]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 997.2 billion, 1,068.6 billion, and 1,147.3 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 6%, 7%, and 7% [61]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 145.5 billion, 164.4 billion, and 183.2 billion CNY, with growth rates of 82%, 13%, and 11% [61][63]. - The DCF valuation method suggests a target price of 133.94 HKD per share, supporting the "Buy" rating [11][65].