Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the quarter reached RMB 236.503 billion (USD 33.701 billion), a 5% year-over-year increase[5] - Operating profit was RMB 35.246 billion (USD 5.023 billion), up 5% year-over-year, driven by reduced non-cash share-based compensation expenses[5] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 43.874 billion (USD 6.252 billion), with net profit increasing 63% year-over-year to RMB 43.547 billion (USD 6.205 billion)[5] - Alibaba's total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 236.50 billion (USD 33.70 billion), a 5% YoY increase, with net income attributable to ordinary shareholders rising 58% YoY to RMB 43.87 billion (USD 6.25 billion)[18] - Total revenue for the September 2024 quarter was RMB 236,503 million (USD 33,701 million), a 5% YoY increase from RMB 224,790 million in the same period last year[19] - Revenue for the three months ending September 30, 2024, was RMB 236,503 million (USD 33,701 million), an increase from RMB 224,790 million in the same period in 2023[74] - Net profit attributable to Alibaba Group shareholders for the six months ending September 30, 2024, was RMB 68,423 million (USD 9,750 million), up from RMB 62,089 million in the same period in 2023[74] - Net profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 43,547 million (USD 6,205 million), compared to RMB 26,696 million in the same period of 2023[53] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 43,874 million (USD 6,252 million), compared to RMB 27,706 million in the same period of 2023[54] - Net profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 43,547 million (USD 6,205 million), up from RMB 26,696 million in the same period in 2023[78] Cloud Intelligence Group Performance - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew 7% year-over-year to RMB 29.610 billion (USD 4.219 billion), with AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters[9] - Public cloud product revenue saw double-digit growth, contributing to overall revenue growth of over 7% excluding revenue from consolidated businesses[9] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue increased 7% YoY to RMB 29,610 million (USD 4,219 million)[19] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 29,610 million (USD 4,219 million), driven by double-digit growth in public cloud products, including AI-related products[26] - Cloud Intelligence Group adjusted EBITA surged 89% YoY to RMB 2,661 million (USD 379 million), primarily due to a shift towards higher-margin public cloud products and improved operational efficiency[27] Taobao and Tmall Performance - Taobao and Tmall's GMV growth was driven by double-digit order volume growth, with 88VIP members reaching 46 million, a double-digit year-over-year increase[8] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, Taobao and Tmall achieved strong GMV growth and a record number of buyers[8] - Taotian Group's revenue from China retail commerce reached RMB 93,008 million (USD 13,254 million), with customer management revenue growing 2% YoY due to online GMV growth[23] - Taotian Group's adjusted EBITA decreased 5% YoY to RMB 44,590 million (USD 6,354 million), primarily due to increased investments in user experience[25] Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group Performance - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) revenue increased 29% YoY to RMB 31.67 billion (USD 4.51 billion) in Q3 2024, driven by cross-border business growth[12] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's total revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 31,672 million (USD 4,513 million), with international retail commerce up 35% and wholesale commerce up 9%[19] - International Digital Commerce Group's retail revenue grew 35% YoY to RMB 25,618 million (USD 3,650 million), driven by growth in AliExpress Choice and Trendyol[28] - International Digital Commerce Group's wholesale revenue increased by 9% YoY to RMB 6,054 million (USD 863 million), supported by growth in cross-border value-added services[29] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's adjusted EBITA surged 89% YoY to RMB 2,661 million (USD 379 million)[22] Cainiao Group Performance - Cainiao Group revenue grew 8% YoY to RMB 24.65 billion (USD 3.51 billion) in Q3 2024, primarily driven by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions[13] - Cainiao Group revenue rose 8% YoY to RMB 24,647 million (USD 3,512 million)[19] - Cainiao Group revenue rose 8% YoY to RMB 24,647 million (USD 3,512 million), primarily due to growth in cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions[31] - Cainiao Group's adjusted EBITA loss widened significantly to RMB 2,905 million (USD 414 million), a 657% YoY increase in losses[22] Local Services Group Performance - Local Services Group revenue increased 14% YoY to RMB 17.73 billion (USD 2.53 billion) in Q3 2024, with Gaode's daily active users peaking at over 300 million during the National Day holiday[14] - Local Services Group revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB 17,725 million (USD 2,526 million)[19] - Local Services Group revenue increased by 14% YoY to RMB 17,725 million (USD 2,526 million), driven by order growth in Amap and Ele.me, as well as marketing service revenue growth[33] Digital Media and Entertainment Group Performance - Digital Media and Entertainment Group revenue decreased 1% YoY to RMB 5.69 billion (USD 811 million) in Q3 2024, with narrowing losses due to increased advertising revenue and content investment efficiency[15] Share Repurchases and Financial Position - The company repurchased USD 4.1 billion worth of shares, reducing outstanding shares by 2.1% compared to the end of June[4] - Alibaba repurchased 414 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 52 million ADSs) for a total of USD 4.1 billion in Q3 2024, reducing outstanding shares by 2.1%[17] - Cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, and other financial investments totaled RMB 554,378 million (USD 78,998 million) as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 617,230 million as of March 31, 2024[57] - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 1,762,712 million (USD 251,184 million), slightly down from RMB 1,764,829 million as of March 31, 2024[75][76] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 182,992 million (USD 26,076 million) as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 248,125 million as of March 31, 2024[75] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 704,834 million (USD 100,438 million) as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 652,230 million as of March 31, 2024[76] - Total equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 953,925 million (USD 135,933 million) as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 986,544 million as of March 31, 2024[76] - Total current assets decreased to RMB 609,102 million (USD 86,796 million) as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 752,864 million as of March 31, 2024[75] Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow - Free cash flow decreased by 70% year-over-year to RMB 13.735 billion (USD 1.957 billion), primarily due to investments in Alibaba Cloud infrastructure and refunds to Tmall merchants[6] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 31,438 million (USD 4,480 million), a 36% decrease from RMB 49,231 million in the same period of 2023[58] - Free cash flow for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 13,735 million (USD 1,957 million), a 70% decrease from RMB 45,220 million in the same period of 2023[58] - Net cash used in financing activities for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 66,782 million (USD 9,516 million), primarily due to share repurchases and dividend payments[60] - Operating cash flow for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 31,438 million (USD 4,480 million), a decrease from RMB 49,231 million in the same period in 2023[77] - Net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 86,364 million (USD 12,307 million), compared to RMB 37,018 million in the same period in 2023[77] - Free cash flow for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 31,107 million (USD 4,433 million), compared to RMB 84,309 million in the same period of 2023[81] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 65,074 million (USD 9,273 million), compared to RMB 94,537 million in the same period of 2023[81] - Purchases of property and equipment (excluding land use rights and construction in progress related to corporate campuses) for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 16,977 million (USD 2,419 million), up from RMB 4,112 million in the same period of 2023[81] - Purchases of property and equipment (excluding land use rights and construction in progress related to corporate campuses) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 28,916 million (USD 4,120 million), compared to RMB 10,119 million in the same period of 2023[81] - Changes in buyer protection fund for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB -726 million (USD -104 million), compared to RMB 101 million in the same period of 2023[81] - Changes in buyer protection fund for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB -5,051 million (USD -720 million), compared to RMB -109 million in the same period of 2023[81] Expenses and Costs - Total costs and expenses for the quarter were RMB 202,108 million (USD 28,799 million), accounting for 60.9% of revenue, down from 62.1% in the same period last year[40] - Product development expenses for the quarter were RMB 14,182 million (USD 2,020 million), accounting for 6.0% of revenue, down from 6.3% in the same period last year[41] - Sales and marketing expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 32,471 million (USD 4,627 million), accounting for 13.7% of revenue, compared to RMB 25,485 million (11.3% of revenue) in the same period of 2023[42] - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 9,777 million (USD 1,393 million), accounting for 4.1% of revenue, compared to RMB 9,408 million (4.2% of revenue) in the same period of 2023[42] - Equity incentive expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 4,146 million (USD 591 million), a 39% decrease compared to RMB 6,830 million in the same period of 2023[43] - Non-cash share-based compensation expenses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 7,775 million (USD 1,108 million), up from RMB 5,201 million in the same period in 2023[79] - Provision for shareholder class action lawsuits for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3,145 million (USD 448 million)[79] Earnings and Non-GAAP Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 47,327 million (USD 6,744 million), a 4% decrease compared to RMB 49,237 million in the same period of 2023[46] - Adjusted EBITA for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 40,561 million (USD 5,780 million), a 5% decrease compared to RMB 42,845 million in the same period of 2023[46] - Non-GAAP net profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 36,518 million (USD 5,204 million), a 9% decrease compared to RMB 40,188 million in the same period of 2023[53] - Adjusted EBITA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 85,596 million (USD 12,197 million), compared to RMB 88,216 million in the same period in 2023[78] - Non-GAAP net profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 36,518 million (USD 5,204 million), down from RMB 40,188 million in the same period in 2023[79] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 98,488 million (USD 14,034 million), compared to RMB 101,289 million in the same period in 2023[78] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 1.88 (USD 0.27), compared to RMB 1.95 in the same period of 2023[80] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 31.50 (USD 4.49), compared to RMB 33.00 in the same period of 2023[80] - Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITA, and non-GAAP net profit are used to identify core business trends and provide insights into operational performance[68] - Free cash flow is considered a liquidity indicator, showing how much operating cash flow is available for strategic investments and acquisitions[68] - Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest income, investment gains, taxes, equity method investment results, and non-cash expenses like stock-based compensation and amortization[70] - Adjusted EBITA excludes similar items as Adjusted EBITDA but focuses more on core operational performance[70] - Non-GAAP net profit excludes non-cash stock-based compensation, intangible asset amortization, and gains/losses from investment disposals[70] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS is calculated by dividing non-GAAP net profit by the weighted average number of diluted shares outstanding[71] - Free cash flow is derived from operating cash flow minus capital expenditures and excludes funds from buyer protection deposits[71] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial metrics should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for GAAP metrics[69] - Detailed reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financial metrics are provided in the earnings announcement[72] Interest Income and Investment Gains - Interest income and net investment gains for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 18,607 million (USD 2,652 million), a 262% increase compared to RMB 5,136 million in the same period of 2023[48] - Interest income and investment gains for the three months ending September 30, 2024, were RMB 18,607 million (USD 2,652 million), a significant increase from RMB 5,136 million in the same period in 2023[74] - Interest income and investment gains for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 17,129 million (USD 2,441 million), compared to RMB 762 million in the same period in 2023[78] Employee and Operational Metrics - The company's total number of employees as of September 30, 2024, was 197,991, compared to 198,162 as of June 30, 2024[61] - The company will hold an earnings call on November 15, 2024, at 7:30 AM ET to discuss financial results[62] Other Segments Performance - All Other segments revenue grew 9% YoY to RMB 52,178 million (USD 7,435 million), mainly due to increased retail revenue from Freshippo and AliHealth[37] China Wholesale Commerce Performance - China wholesale commerce revenue increased 18% YoY to RMB 5,986 million (USD 853 million), driven by higher value-added services for paid members[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target valuation of 25,047 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 147 USD per ADS and 143 HKD per share, indicating an upside potential of 48% and 45% respectively [5][9][118]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic internet cloud business has emerged from a low point, with AI and international expansion serving as new growth drivers. The shift in focus towards AI-driven public cloud services is expected to enhance revenue growth and profitability [6][7][12]. - Alibaba's cloud business is identified as a core strategic focus, with significant investments in AI capabilities and self-developed chips, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years [10][11][12]. - The report highlights that AI applications are beginning to show tangible contributions to revenue, particularly in cloud services and advertising, with significant growth in AI-related product revenues [75][110]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY2025 to FY2027, the projected revenues for Alibaba Group are 10,186 billion RMB, 10,934 billion RMB, and 11,843 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 7.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 1,570 billion RMB, 1,706 billion RMB, and 1,838 billion RMB, with growth rates of -0.9%, 8.7%, and 7.8% respectively [4][118][119]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to improve, with forecasts of 7.5%, 7.8%, and 8.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [118][121]. Key Assumptions - The report posits that Alibaba's self-developed chips and model capabilities will enhance the growth of its cloud business, with revenue growth rates for Alibaba Cloud projected at 7.5%, 10.0%, and 11.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [10][118]. - The strategic focus on public cloud products is expected to lead to improved profit margins, as the company reduces low-margin integrated projects [7][10][110]. Market Comparison - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud business has maintained the largest market share in IaaS and PaaS, although it has seen a decline from over 40% to below 30% from 2019 to 2023, while competitors like Huawei have gained market share [63][66]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with AI becoming a critical factor in cloud service growth, as seen in the performance of international peers like Microsoft and Amazon [39][112].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see stable monetization rates and continued investment in core businesses, with a focus on international digital commerce and cloud services [1][3] - For FY2025Q2, the overall revenue is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to 2,396 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA expected to decline by 7% to 398 billion RMB [2][3] - The international digital commerce group is anticipated to achieve a revenue of 313 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [2][3] Financial Performance Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue for FY2025E at 1,010,044 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 101,934 million RMB for FY2025E, representing a growth rate of 28% [4] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the Taobao group is projected to be 44% for FY2025Q2, with revenue expected to reach 1,013 billion RMB, a 4% increase year-on-year [2][4] Segment Performance - The Taobao group's revenue is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year to 1,013 billion RMB, driven by stable consumer recovery and improved monetization tools [2][3] - The cloud intelligent group is projected to achieve a revenue of 299 billion RMB for FY2025Q2, with an 8% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by AI product revenue [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a diluted EPS of 5.10 RMB for FY2025E, with a P/E ratio of 17x [4][6] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is estimated at 20,708 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 108 RMB [3][4]

公司研究·海外公司快评 互联网·互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 张伦可 0755-81982651 zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120004 联系人： 王颖婕 0755-81983057 wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn 优于大市 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 2QFY25 前瞻：淘天货币化率逐步企稳，公司持续投入用户体 验 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年二季度财报。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月13日 国信互联网观点：1）料 2QFY25 收入同比+6%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 18%：收入看，我们预计阿里巴巴实 现营收 2,372 亿元，YoY+6%。我们预计本季度收入增速环比小幅提升，主要由于淘天 CMR 收入增速加快， 预计淘天/国际数字商业/本地生活/菜鸟/云智能收入增速分别为 1%/30%/16%/18%/8%。料 2QFY25 经调整 EBITA 利润率 18%，同比下降 1.1pct，经调 EBITA 利润 YoY-1%，Non-GAA ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in domestic internet e-commerce and cloud computing, facing three marginal changes: the core business Taobao's GMV is returning to growth, international e-commerce revenue continues to grow rapidly, and other businesses are nearing breakeven [1] - The company is undergoing fundamental adjustments, has high valuation attractiveness, and is in a favorable funding environment, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1] Summary by Sections 1. Taobao Group - Taobao's GMV share is expected to stabilize and recover due to the peak of live e-commerce and internal strategic adjustments [2] - The new service fee rules are anticipated to bring commission increments and enhance monetization rates, with the "All-Station Push" advertising product expected to improve ROI for small and medium-sized merchants [2][3] - The internal strategy focuses on enhancing user experience, increasing platform traffic, and promoting merchant return, which is expected to boost GMV [2] 2. International E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing a trend towards refined development, with significant growth potential in Southeast Asia [3] - The international e-commerce business, driven by the "Choice" service, is expected to maintain high growth rates, with projected revenues of 1296.32 billion, 1556.20 billion, and 1842.97 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [10] 3. Cloud Computing - The cloud computing industry in China is growing rapidly, with market size increasing from 322.9 billion to 616.5 billion from 2021 to 2023, representing a CAGR of 38.18% [4] - Alibaba Cloud remains the leader in the IaaS market, benefiting from the demand for high computing power driven by AI models [4][7] 4. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for Alibaba are 10125.53 billion, 10983.71 billion, and 11968.13 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27, with growth rates of 7.58%, 8.48%, and 8.96% respectively [10] - The expected net profit for the same periods is 1045.19 billion, 1217.72 billion, and 1678.78 billion, with growth rates of 30.78%, 16.49%, and 37.82% respectively [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 14.56X, 12.50X, and 9.07X for FY25, FY26, and FY27 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Alibaba-W (09988 HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's GMV growth is benefiting from user repurchase behavior and payment interoperability, with expectations of further CMR revenue growth driven by the rollout of site-wide promotion tools [1] - The report highlights Alibaba's competitive advantages in the e-commerce sector, particularly through its comprehensive SKU ecosystem and user experience [3] - Alibaba's integration of Pinduoduo's traffic strategies and the innovation of its promotion tools are expected to drive CMR revenue growth [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 941 168 million in FY2024 to RMB 1 194 600 million in FY2027, with a CAGR of 8 34% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 158 359 million in FY2024 to RMB 181 541 62 million in FY2027 [2] - EPS (Non-GAAP) is forecasted to rise from RMB 8 13 in FY2024 to RMB 9 47 in FY2027 [2] Competitive Analysis - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall are leveraging a **store logic** approach, focusing on comprehensive shopping experiences and brand-centric SKU ecosystems, which contrasts with Pinduoduo's **product logic** that emphasizes low prices and limited SKUs [3][12] - Alibaba's strategy includes subsidizing merchants and users to enhance stickiness, with the integration of WeChat Pay expected to drive new user growth [3][22] - The report notes that Pinduoduo's cost advantages are diminishing due to rising logistics and commission fees, while Alibaba is replicating promotional strategies to support small and medium-sized merchants [3][20] Promotion and Monetization - Alibaba's site-wide promotion tools are expected to improve advertising ROI and increase Take Rate, creating a positive cycle for GMV and CMR revenue growth [3][33] - The report highlights that Alibaba's promotion tools, such as the upgraded "Wanxiangtai Wujieban" and "Site-wide Promotion," are designed to simplify advertising processes and enhance efficiency [3][35] - The integration of promotion tools is expected to accelerate the monetization of natural traffic, with advertising revenue and GMV projected to rise simultaneously [3][39] User Growth and Engagement - E-commerce user growth is nearing saturation, but Alibaba's integration with WeChat Pay could unlock new growth opportunities, given WeChat's higher MAU compared to Taobao [3][24] - The report emphasizes that Alibaba's strategy is shifting towards increasing order frequency rather than user acquisition, with subsidies and low prices driving user stickiness [3][27] Industry Trends - The report compares Alibaba to Walmart and Pinduoduo to Costco, highlighting Alibaba's focus on supply chain efficiency and comprehensive SKU coverage as key competitive advantages [12] - The e-commerce industry is moving towards a model where increasing order frequency and user engagement are more critical than acquiring new users [3][27]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company, with an expected adjusted EPS of 7.85/8.62/9.53 yuan for FY2025-2027, and a corresponding adjusted PE of 9/9/8 times based on the closing price on September 10 [2] Core Views - The company has reorganized its strategy to focus on "user-first" and "AI-driven" priorities, with a renewed emphasis on e-commerce and cloud computing [1] - E-commerce competition is easing, and the company's traditional strengths in shelf-based e-commerce are expected to stabilize market share [2] - Cloud computing, driven by AI, has significant growth potential, with the company leading in both scale and technology [1][2] E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is seeing a slowdown in low-price competition, with the company improving user experience and optimizing merchant operations [1] - Measures include "refund-only" policies, free shipping to Xinjiang, and upgrades to the 88VIP program [1] - The company has introduced new tools like "Full-Site Promotion" to boost merchant growth and CMR revenue [1] Cloud Computing - The company leads in domestic IaaS and PaaS market share, with a comprehensive IaaS+PaaS+MaaS architecture [1] - 80% of tech companies and over half of AI large model companies in China operate on the company's cloud platform [1] - AI and large models are expected to drive significant growth in cloud computing [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 941.168 billion yuan in FY2024 to 1,169.964 billion yuan in FY2027, with a CAGR of 7.6% [3] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 158.359 billion yuan in FY2024 to 183.445 billion yuan in FY2027, with a CAGR of 11% [3] Shareholder Returns - The company has the largest share buyback program among Chinese internet companies, with a shareholder return rate of 9.4% (dividends + buybacks) for FY2024 [2] Historical Development - The company has evolved from a B2B platform to a comprehensive internet giant, with key milestones including the launch of Taobao, Tmall, and AliCloud [6][7] - Recent strategic shifts include a focus on e-commerce and cloud computing, with significant organizational changes in 2023 [8][9] Organizational Changes - The company has undergone multiple organizational restructurings, including the "1+6+N" reform in 2023, which established six major business groups [10][11] - Key leadership changes include the appointment of Joseph Tsai as Chairman and Eddie Yongming Wu as CEO in September 2023 [12] Market Position - The company is a leader in both e-commerce and cloud computing, with Taobao and Tmall being the largest digital retail platforms globally [6] - AliCloud is the fourth-largest IaaS provider globally and the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [6] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce sector is facing increased competition from platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin, but the company's traditional strengths in shelf-based e-commerce are expected to stabilize market share [1][2] - Cloud computing is expected to see significant growth, driven by AI and large models, with the company leading in both scale and technology [1][2]

公司盈利预测与估值简表 淘宝天猫计划新增微信支付，进一步完善购物体验 ——阿里巴巴-W（9988.HK）淘宝天猫发布意见征集事件点评 9 月 4 日，淘宝网、天猫分别发布《关于淘宝网新增微信支付能力的意见征集》 及《关于天猫新增微信支付能力的意见征集》称，为提升消费者购物体验，淘 宝天猫计划新增微信支付能力，并于本意见征集结束后，进行平台规则调整， 本次调整将覆盖全体淘宝和天猫商家。 工信部于 2021 年 9 月 9 日下午召开"屏蔽网址链接问题行政指导会"，要求 限期内各平台须按标准解除屏蔽。阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动、百度、华为、 小米、陌陌、360、网易等企业悉数参会。2021 年 8 月，淘宝 APP 接入银联云 闪付。同时，阿里旗下饿了么、优酷、大麦、考拉海购、书旗等应用均已接入 微信支付。当时淘特、闲鱼、盒马等 App 也已申请接入微信支付，在等待微信 审核。此次淘宝天猫计划新增微信支付，符合互联互通大趋势，有利于构筑更 加良性的互联网生态，进一步提升消费购物体验。2024 年 8 月 30 日，国家市 场监督管理总局发布公告，宣布阿里巴巴集团完成三年整改，取得良好成效。 维持盈利预测，维持"买入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The company plans to introduce WeChat Pay capabilities on its Taobao and Tmall platforms to enhance consumer shopping experiences, aligning with the trend of interconnectivity in the internet ecosystem [19][20]. - The introduction of a 0.6% basic software service fee on confirmed transactions from September 1, 2024, is expected to boost the company's revenue and profit while facilitating the smooth implementation of WeChat Pay [1][19]. - The company has seen a recovery in GMV growth and is expected to accelerate its inclusion in the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index [20]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 868.7 billion - FY2024: 941.2 billion - FY2025E: 1,017.3 billion - FY2026E: 1,089.1 billion - FY2027E: 1,159.5 billion - Revenue growth rates are projected at: - FY2023: 1.83% - FY2024: 8.34% - FY2025E: 8.09% - FY2026E: 7.06% - FY2027E: 6.46% [7][23]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - FY2023: 72.5 billion - FY2024: 79.7 billion - FY2025E: 85.4 billion - FY2026E: 90.7 billion - FY2027E: 94.6 billion - The net profit growth rates are projected at: - FY2023: 16.92% - FY2024: 9.93% - FY2025E: 6.80% - FY2026E: 6.15% - FY2027E: 4.26% [7][23].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a 15%+ relative return over the next 6-12 months [181] Core Views - The company has been a pioneer in China's e-commerce and internet finance sectors, shaping the current e-commerce ecosystem [18] - It has faced significant challenges since 2020, including market share loss in e-commerce, slowing cloud growth, and regulatory issues, leading to an 80%+ drop in market cap [56] - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments to improve platform competitiveness, with signs of marginal improvement [154] Historical Performance - The company achieved a David vs Goliath victory over eBay in the early 2000s through superior platform design, including free listings, built-in chat, and payment guarantees [8] - It played a crucial role in building China's e-commerce infrastructure, including payment systems and logistics networks [9][10][14] - The company's market share in e-commerce has declined from around 80% to 40% due to competition from Pinduoduo and Douyin [30] Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo's success is attributed to its consumer-first approach and efficient platform design, which has led to rapid GMV growth [32][43] - Douyin has rapidly expanded in live-streaming e-commerce, reaching over 2 trillion GMV in 2023 [48][77] - The company is facing competition from multiple fronts, including Pinduoduo, Douyin, and emerging players like Xiaohongshu [60] Strategic Adjustments - The company has recognized its platform efficiency issues and is implementing reforms, including price competitiveness initiatives [89][114] - It is shifting from a merchant-centric to a consumer-centric approach, with changes in traffic allocation rules [115] - The company is adopting a gradual reform strategy to balance platform competitiveness and merchant interests [93][119] Financial Performance - The company has generated over 1 trillion RMB in free cash flow over the past decade, with an average of 150 billion RMB annually in the last five years [141] - It has significantly increased shareholder returns, with 42.8 billion USD in buybacks and dividends over the past 3.5 years [144] - The company's ROIC is currently low at 6.9%, but management aims to improve it to double digits [127] Valuation - The company's non-business assets are valued at 815.2 billion RMB, including 446.5 billion RMB in net cash [148] - The core e-commerce business is valued at 6.3-9.5x PE based on current profitability [135][148] - Including growth potential, the total valuation could reach 2.64 trillion RMB, representing a 47% margin of safety [153][167] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve 7.6% revenue growth in FY2025, with e-commerce growing at 2.2% and international business growing at 32.3% [155][168][170] - Cloud business is expected to grow at 8-10% annually, with improving profitability [191] - The company is focusing on improving capital allocation efficiency and divesting non-core assets [127]