Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of 33.87 billion HKD on April 24, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net buy of 16.1 billion HKD, driven by positive news regarding the cancellation of "refund only" policies across multiple e-commerce platforms, which is expected to enhance competition [4]. - Meituan-W (03690) received a net buy of 13.12 billion HKD, supported by Citigroup's report indicating no risk of ADR delisting and a stable revenue outlook, with UBS predicting a 10% growth in food delivery orders this year [5]. - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) had a net buy of 2.56 billion HKD, following the launch of its new P7+ model and the introduction of its humanoid robot, which is set for mass production by 2026 [5]. - China Mobile (00941) faced a net sell of 3.57 billion HKD, with a slight revenue growth of 0.02% in Q1, indicating a slowdown in the telecom sector [7]. - CNOOC (00883) experienced a net sell of 2.83 billion HKD, attributed to a significant drop in international oil prices and concerns over OPEC+ production increases [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall northbound trading activity reflects a shift in investor sentiment, with notable buying interest in technology and e-commerce sectors while traditional sectors like telecommunications and energy face challenges [1][6]. - The cancellation of "refund only" policies in e-commerce is expected to lead to healthier competition among platforms, potentially benefiting companies like Alibaba [4]. - The outlook for gold-related stocks, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693), remains optimistic due to anticipated production growth and lower costs, despite fluctuations in gold prices [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Views - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The company's market capitalization is estimated at 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a steady increase in operating profit, with a forecast of 133751 million yuan for FY2025, representing an 18.00% growth [9][11]. Business Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Revenue is expected to be 446799 million yuan in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth of 2.74% [11][21]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, with a projected market value of 8500 million yuan [13][21]. - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Currently in an expansion phase, projected to have a market value of 1691 million yuan based on a PS valuation method [15][21]. - **Cainiao Group**: Expected to achieve a market value of 121 billion yuan, reflecting a stable profitability trend [17][21]. - **Local Life Group**: Valued at 1510 million yuan, utilizing a PS valuation method due to its current lack of profitability [19][21]. - **Entertainment Group**: Estimated market value of 449 million yuan, based on a PS valuation of its subsidiaries [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, indicating a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a projected EBITA of 170388 million yuan for FY25, showing a slight increase of 3.25% year-over-year [11]. Business Segments - Taobao Group is valued using a PE method, with a projected market value of 15686 million yuan based on a 10x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, valued at 8500 million yuan using a 6x PS ratio [21]. - The International Digital Commerce Group is still in the expansion phase and is valued at 1691 million yuan using a PS method [21]. - Cainiao Group is projected to have a stable profit level, valued at 121 billion yuan based on an 11x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Local Life Group is valued at 1510 million yuan using a PS method, reflecting its current non-profitable status [21]. - The Entertainment Group is valued at 449 million yuan based on a PS method, considering the valuation of Alibaba Pictures [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a total revenue of 221874 million yuan in Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.57% [11]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The AI cloud demand is rapidly increasing, with a tenfold growth in model calls every six months. The number of active customers has surged from 100 to over 40,000, solidifying Alibaba Cloud's position as the leading player in the domestic cloud computing market [7]. - The company is enhancing its multi-modal large model capabilities, with recent releases achieving industry-leading performance in video generation and cross-modal perception [7]. Business Segments Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the market value of various business units, including Taobao Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Cainiao Group, with respective valuation methods such as P/E and P/S [21]. - The Taobao Group is valued at 15686 million yuan based on a P/E ratio of 10x, while the Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at 8500 million yuan using a P/S ratio of 6x [21]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 17, 2025, is 108.7 HKD, with a 52-week high of 145.9 HKD and a low of 64.41 HKD [3]. - The report notes a strong absolute performance of 63.31% over the past 12 months, indicating positive market sentiment [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. The revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on its core e-commerce and AI & Cloud businesses while reducing costs in non-core areas. The cloud revenue is expected to grow sustainably driven by AI industry momentum [5][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For FY2025, the company’s revenue is adjusted to CNY 996.9 billion, with further projections of CNY 1,074.2 billion in FY2026 and CNY 1,156.6 billion in FY2027. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][27]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are CNY 160.2 billion, CNY 172.5 billion, and CNY 188.3 billion respectively, with adjustments of 5.9%, 4.1%, and 1.2% [5][27]. Segment Performance - Taobao Group is expected to see a GMV growth of 4% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with a continued focus on maintaining market share and enhancing quality supply [10]. - The Cloud segment is projected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 20% year-on-year in 4QFY25, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek [14]. - The AI-driven applications are gaining traction, with the new Quark app achieving a monthly active user count of 149 million, marking it as the only domestic AI app to surpass 100 million MAU [21]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 is expected to be CNY 302 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to improve by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. AI and Cloud Developments - The company has been actively iterating its AI models, with several new releases aimed at enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal functionalities [17]. - The AI Cloud segment is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with significant contributions from AI-related revenues anticipated to reach triple-digit growth [14][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a 7% year-on-year revenue growth for Q4 FY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. Revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core businesses, while non-core businesses are undergoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive, driven by AI industry momentum [5][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 237 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The adjusted EBITA is projected to be 30.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26% [6][27]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to increase by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Anticipated GMV growth of 4% year-on-year, with a focus on maintaining market share and enhancing supply quality. The take rate is expected to continue its upward trend, leading to a CMR growth of 9% [10][11]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Expected revenue growth of 20% year-on-year, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek. The profit margin is expected to remain stable compared to previous quarters [14][17]. - **AI Development**: The company has launched several AI models and applications, including the flagship application Quark, which has reached 149 million MAU. Future developments will focus on enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal integration [21][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 have been adjusted to 996.9 billion, 1,074.2 billion, and 1,156.6 billion yuan, respectively. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][25]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are set at 160.2 billion, 172.5 billion, and 188.3 billion yuan, with adjustments primarily based on expectations of profitability improvements in non-Taobao businesses [5][25].

Group 1: Market Overview - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of 11.694 billion HKD on April 11, with 6.977 billion HKD from Shanghai Stock Connect and 4.717 billion HKD from Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The most bought stocks included Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent (00700), and China Construction Bank (00939), while the most sold stock was SMIC (00981) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 3.735 billion HKD, while its sell amount was 3.683 billion HKD, resulting in a total trading volume of 7.418 billion HKD [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net buy of 4.168 billion HKD against a sell of 2.943 billion HKD, totaling 7.110 billion HKD [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) recorded a net buy of 3.907 billion HKD with a sell of 1.586 billion HKD, leading to a total of 5.494 billion HKD [2] Group 3: Sector Insights - The technology sector continues to attract investment, with significant net buys for Alibaba-W (25.77 billion HKD), Tencent (19.59 billion HKD), and Meituan-W (3.27 billion HKD) [4] - China Construction Bank (00939) received a net buy of 6.07 billion HKD, supported by positive outlooks on bank stocks due to potential policy easing and increased retail credit demand [5] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) had a net buy of 2.92 billion HKD, with plans for significant share buybacks indicating confidence in long-term growth [5] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Pop Mart (09992) reported a projected revenue of 13.038 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.92%, with a net buy of 2.34 billion HKD [6] - Semiconductor stocks showed mixed results, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) gaining a net buy of 1.81 billion HKD, while SMIC (00981) faced a net sell of 3.88 billion HKD [6] - Kangfang Bio (09926) received a net buy of 1.61 billion HKD, with strong revenue growth expected due to new product inclusions in national insurance [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price of HKD 144, while the current price is HKD 103.6 [5]. Core Viewpoints - Alibaba's GMV is stabilizing and expected to recover due to a user-first strategy, despite a slowdown in overall e-commerce growth in China [1][19]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing its membership program, 88VIP, which has accumulated over 42 million high-engagement users contributing more than 25% of GMV [1][19]. - Alibaba's share buyback program has reached unprecedented levels, with a total of 3.381 billion shares repurchased for USD 38.74 billion, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential and Changes - China's e-commerce penetration still has room for growth, with online retail sales reaching CNY 13.79 trillion in 2022, accounting for 27.2% of total retail sales [1][13]. - The report highlights that Alibaba's market share in online retail has declined from 59%-64% in 2018-2019 to 49% by FY24Q4, attributed to intensified competition [16][19]. - The user-first strategy is expected to enhance consumer retention and purchasing frequency, leading to a potential recovery in GMV [19][32]. 2. Organizational Changes and Strategic Focus - Alibaba has streamlined its organizational structure, focusing on two core businesses: Taobao and Alibaba Cloud, under the leadership of new CEO Wu Yongming [2][5]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive promotion strategy to enhance monetization rates for small and medium-sized merchants, leveraging AI to optimize advertising effectiveness [2][5]. 3. International E-commerce Growth - The report notes that AliExpress is seeing growth through a combination of fully managed and semi-managed services, which account for over 70% of orders, enhancing user experience and attracting new users [4]. - Lazada has achieved its first positive EBITDA in July 2024, supported by a robust logistics network and payment system [4]. 4. Cloud Services and AI Integration - Alibaba Cloud remains the largest IaaS provider in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on AI-driven strategies to enhance service offerings and reduce costs [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration of the Tongyi model, which has shown strong performance in various applications, indicating a commitment to AI development [4].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.4%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.29%. Most tech stocks increased, with Alibaba (09988) up approximately 1.5%, while SMIC (00981) fell over 2% after its earnings report [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the current rally in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, with overall valuations near historical averages. The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to continue to rise, supported by the recovery of the Chinese economy, improving corporate earnings, and a favorable liquidity environment [2] - CICC's latest report indicates that the long-term pricing of Hong Kong stocks depends on earnings prospects. If earnings materialize, related stocks may experience a situation where prices rise while valuations decrease. In the short term, some stocks that have risen significantly may face volatility [2] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Securities, the three main lines of high allocation value in the Hong Kong market in the medium to long term are: first, the technology sector with promising earnings; second, the consumer sector with strong policy support; and third, high-dividend sectors with stable investment returns [2] - Researcher Bi Mengnian from Grayscale Wealth pointed out that while overseas interest rates are gradually declining, the pressure on the Hong Kong stock market will ease. In the long term, a moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policies will continue to support the economic fundamentals, indicating significant investment value in the Hong Kong market [3] - Singapore Bank's China equity strategist, Huo Huimin, noted that the government work report emphasizes promoting consumption and supporting technological innovation, which is favorable for the stock market. The target price for the Hang Seng Index is set at 25,900 points [3] Group 3 - Industrial Securities reported that recent indicators such as turnover rate and short-selling volume in the Hang Seng Index suggest that market sentiment is at a short-term peak. The high internationalization of the Hong Kong market makes it susceptible to influences from Western markets and geopolitical factors, leading to expected short-term fluctuations [4] - The current bull market in China has found its main driving force in AI technology breakthroughs and advancements in robotics. The recent adjustments due to overseas risks may benefit the mid-term sustainability of the bull market [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]