Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Alibaba Group [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba Group is expected to report total revenue of 219.9 billion RMB for the quarter ending March 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group is projected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth, with total revenue estimated at 92.5 billion RMB, where customer management revenue is expected to be 62.1 billion RMB, indicating that the growth rate of customer management revenue is still lower than that of sales [4]. - The growth strategy for the Taobao and Tmall Group focuses on a user-first approach and efficient operations to better serve the diverse Chinese consumer base [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods in China grew by 11.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods [4]. - Adjusted EBITA is expected to slightly decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA projected to decrease to 38.1 billion RMB, primarily due to higher-than-expected losses from non-Taobao businesses, including a one-time equity incentive distribution to employees following the withdrawal of Cainiao Group's IPO [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Expectations - Total revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be 219.9 billion RMB, with a 5.6% year-over-year increase [4]. Taobao and Tmall Group Performance - Revenue for the Taobao and Tmall Group is expected to be 92.5 billion RMB, with customer management revenue at 62.1 billion RMB, showing a growth rate lower than sales [4]. Growth Strategy - The focus is on a user-first strategy and efficient operations to cater to a diverse consumer base in China [4]. Online Retail Growth - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6% year-over-year, representing 23.3% of total retail sales [4]. EBITA Projections - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA at 38.1 billion RMB, impacted by losses from other business segments [7]. Share Buyback Update - As of March 31, 2024, the company repurchased a total of 524 million shares at a total cost of 4.8 billion USD, resulting in a net decrease of 520 million shares compared to the previous quarter [8].

报告发布日后的 12 个月内行业或公司的涨跌幅相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅为基准 （A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数）； 本证券研究报告（以下简称"本报告"）由东方证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）制作及发布。 电话： 021-63325888 传真： 021-63326786 网址： www.dfzq.com.cn Tabl e_Disclai mer 东方证券股份有限公司经相关主管机关核准具备证券投资咨询业务资格，据此开展发布证券研究报告业务。 东方证券股份有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的范围内正在或将要与本研究报告所分析的企业发展业务关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在对报告的客 观性产生影响的利益冲突，不应视本证券研究报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 买入：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15%以上； 增持：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5%～15%； 中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率在-5%～+5%之间波动； 减持：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率在-5%以下。 未评级 —— 由于在报告发出之时该股票不在本公司研究覆盖范围内，分析师基于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [24][25]. Core Views - The report highlights a gradual recovery in e-commerce, with a focus on a "user-first" strategy. Retail sales in China grew by 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 11.6% [5]. - Alibaba Cloud is expected to achieve healthy growth in public cloud services, despite recent price reductions across its product lines [6][23]. - The report anticipates strong growth in AIDC, Cainiao, and local services, although increased investments may lead to wider adjusted EBITA losses [7][23]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: FY2024E at 939,104 million, FY2025E at 996,102 million, and FY2026E at 1,068,502 million, with growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 7% respectively [11][24]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are 156,298 million for FY2024E, 153,723 million for FY2025E, and 164,822 million for FY2026E, with growth rates of 9%, -2%, and 7% respectively [11][24]. - The report projects a non-GAAP EPS of 7.69 for FY2024E, 7.85 for FY2025E, and 8.75 for FY2026E [11][24]. Strategic Developments - On March 26, Alibaba announced plans to acquire minority stakes in Cainiao for $3.75 billion and withdrew its IPO application, indicating a strategic focus on core business integration [8][24]. - The report emphasizes that Alibaba's strategy will concentrate on enhancing core businesses and increasing investments in domestic and international e-commerce and cloud computing, which may pressure short-term profit growth [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate between open-source and closed-source AI models is intensifying, with industry leaders like Baidu's CEO Robin Li asserting that closed-source models will lead in both technology and commercialization, while others argue for the advantages of open-source innovation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Open-source vs Closed-source Models - Robin Li claims that open-source models will increasingly fall behind closed-source models, stating that the perceived cost-effectiveness of open-source is misleading in the context of large models [1][6]. - The open-source community is significantly larger than the closed-source community, with major players like Meta's Llama and Musk's xAI leading the charge in open-source development [3][5]. - The closed-source models, represented by OpenAI's GPT and Baidu's Wenxin Yiyan, have seen substantial user engagement, with Baidu reporting over 200 million daily API calls [4][10]. Group 2: Commercialization Strategies - Baidu is pioneering the commercialization of AI models in China, utilizing a membership subscription model for its Wenxin Yiyan service, with prices ranging from 49.9 yuan per month to 658.8 yuan annually [12][13]. - The company has reported significant revenue from its AI initiatives, with Q4 2022 cloud revenue reaching 8.4 billion yuan, driven by its AI model offerings [11][12]. - The industry consensus is that a successful business model is crucial for AI commercialization, with Baidu's approach serving as a potential template for others in the sector [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The rivalry between major players is evident, with figures like Zhou Hongyi of 360 publicly criticizing Li's views on open-source models, emphasizing the foundational role of open-source in the tech ecosystem [1][2][3]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Google and Microsoft adopting dual strategies of both open-source and closed-source models to enhance their market positions [8][9]. - The ongoing legal disputes, such as Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, highlight the tensions within the industry and the differing philosophies regarding AI development and commercialization [6][7].

Global Licensing Industry Overview - The global licensing industry is thriving, with License Global ranking the top 50 licensing agents worldwide, representing hundreds of well-known brands [2] - Licensing agents act as intermediaries between IP owners and potential licensees, facilitating licensing opportunities, negotiations, and long-term partnerships [2] - The goal of brand and IP licensing is to maximize brand value while maintaining brand reputation [2] Key Trends in Licensing Industry - Technology and innovation: Agents invest in cutting-edge technologies like generative AI, blockchain, and data analytics to optimize brand management and identify emerging trends Companies leveraging new technologies saw a 58% increase in annual revenue [2] - Sustainability and consumer-centric strategies: 92% of consumers are more likely to trust environmentally or socially conscious brands, and 66% are willing to pay more for sustainable products [2][3] - Diversity, inclusion, and transparency: Inclusive teams are 35% more productive, and diverse companies generate 2.5x higher cash flow per employee [3] - Partnerships, collaboration, and global expansion: Agents are increasingly expanding their businesses globally [3] - Customer experience and engagement: 62% of customer-centric companies report higher profit margins from omnichannel engagement strategies, and 90% of social media users follow at least one brand [3] - Market trends, flexibility, and adaptability: Agents must quickly adapt to changing market demands to provide sustainable revenue for clients and licensees [3] Top Global Licensing Agents - IMG ranks first for the sixth consecutive year, with $17.2 billion in retail sales in 2023, representing brands like Pepsi, Fortnite, and Transformers [5] - CAA ranks second with $13.83 billion in retail sales, representing Coca-Cola, Netflix, and League of Legends [5] - Beanstalk ranks third with $10.1 billion in retail sales, representing Activision Blizzard, Microsoft, and Ubisoft [4][5] - Alifish (Aliyu) from China ranks 11th, jumping 14 spots from last year, with $2.75 billion in retail sales [5] - Guangzhou Art-land Holding Company ranks 12th with $2.75 billion in retail sales [4] - Medialink Animation International ranks 42nd with $142 million in retail sales [6] Regional Market Performance - Global licensed merchandise sales reached $93.94 billion in 2023, up $6.01 billion from 2022 [7] - North America dominates with $78.42 billion in retail sales, a $7 billion increase [7] - Asia-Pacific companies contributed $8.61 billion in retail sales [7] - Europe (including the UK) contributed $5.26 billion [7] - Latin America saw a $383 million increase, reaching $1.64 billion [7] Key Licensing Categories - Fashion is the top category, attracting 69% of respondents [8] - Food and beverage follows at 51%, then toys and games (46%), health and beauty (32%), footwear and accessories (28%), location-based entertainment (26%), and home decor (26%) [8] Company Spotlight: Alifish (Aliyu) - Alifish has established a strategic direction to provide infrastructure services for the entire industry and developed a unique "IP2B2C" model to connect IP, brands, and consumers [6] - The company focuses on supporting businesses throughout and after the licensing process, aligning with License Global's outlined strategies [6]

【TechWeb】4月18日消息，日前，《阿里巴巴淘天集团职场霸凌全记录》长文在网络上流传。 该长文中指出，一名自称为阿里巴巴淘天集团原阿里拍卖-商业机构团队（阿里拍卖现更名为阿里资产）员工，从2018年12月10日入职起，经历长达五年不公正待遇，涉及“‘背刺’、职场性骚扰、肢体霸凌和言语霸凌”。 据中国证券报报道，该长文由文中提及的“受害员工”本人Nancy（化名）撰写并发布。Nancy称“长文内容是真实的”。Nancy告诉记者，其日前刚被阿里资产强行解除劳动合同，在职期间任阿里资产全国房产业务总经理。 目前，该长文已删除。 针对此事，“阿里拍卖”在其官微发文回应表示，“该前员工被下属举报存在利益冲突及管理粗暴等问题，公司经调查认定举报属实。之后其又违反公司纪律，并拒绝回公司说明情况，公司已于4月11日与其解除劳动合同。” ...

IT之家 4 月 18 日消息，针对“被裁女员工控诉遭职场霸凌骚扰”一事，阿里拍卖今天下午进行回应。 IT之家附主要内容： 对近日涉某前员工的网络谣言及不实报道说明如下：该前员工被下属举报存在利益冲突及管理粗暴等问题，公司经调查认定举报属实，将其调整管理岗位。之后其又违反公司纪律，并拒绝回公司说明情况，公司已于 4 月 11 日与其解除劳动合同。 4 月 16 日，一则《阿里巴巴淘天集团职场霸凌全记录》长文在网络上流传。该长文称，一名自称为阿里巴巴淘天集团原阿里拍卖-商业机构团队（阿里拍卖现更名为阿里资产）员工，从 2018 年 12 月 10 日入职起，经历长达五年不公正待遇，涉及“‘背刺’、职场性骚扰、肢体霸凌和言语霸凌”。 详情可以关注IT之家此前报道。 广告声明：文内含有的对外跳转链接（包括不限于超链接、二维码、口令等形式），用于传递更多信息，节省甄选时间，结果仅供参考，IT之家所有文章均包含本声明。 ...

IT之家 4 月 18 日消息，4 月 16 日，一则《阿里巴巴淘天集团职场霸凌全记录》长文在网络上流传。该长文称，一名自称为阿里巴巴淘天集团原阿里拍卖-商业机构团队（阿里拍卖现更名为阿里资产）员工，从 2018 年 12 月 10 日入职起，经历长达五年不公正待遇，涉及“‘背刺’、职场性骚扰、肢体霸凌和言语霸凌”。 据中国证券报消息，该长文由文中提及的“受害员工”本人 Nancy（化名）撰写并发布。Nancy 称“长文内容是真实的”。Nancy 告诉记者，其日前刚被阿里资产强行解除劳动合同，在职期间任阿里资产全国房产业务总经理。 报道称，被 Nancy 指控对其性骚扰的陈某明，在回应采访时以长文没有证据为由，不予明确表态。另一位长文中提到的当事人之一卢某兴，在接受记者电话采访时并没有直接否认长文对其指控，只是让记者去问公司。 IT之家查询发现，微博用户 Nancy_Hong717 的《阿里巴巴淘天集团职场霸凌全记录》长文已删除。 这并不是阿里第一次身陷“职场性骚扰”争议。比如 2021 年全网热议的“阿里女员工被侵害案”，2021 年 8 月 7 日，阿里巴巴一名女员工周某，发表长文描述了其被领导“曲一 ...

公司研究·海外公司快评 互联网·互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：买入（维持评级） 联系人： 王颖婕 0755-81983057 wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 事项： 整体：料 4QFY24 收入同比+6%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 11% 料 4QFY24 经调整 EBITA 利润率 11%，同比下降 0.9pct，Non-GAAP 归母净利率 12%，同比下降 1.6pct。我 们预计集团经调整 EBITA 利润率下降主要原因是淘天电商、国际数字商业、高德业务加大投入，亏损率同 比提升，以及菜鸟暂停上市后给予员工的一次性奖金支出共约 10 亿人民币，全部计入 3 月季度。 证券研究报告 资料来源：公司公告，国信证券经济研究所整理及预测 资料来源：公司公告，国信证券经济研究所整理及预测 证券分析师： 张伦可 0755-81982651 zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120004 买入 4QFY24 前瞻：公司收入平稳增长，对淘天等核心业务加大投 入 阿里巴巴即将发布 2024 财年四季度财报。 4QFY24，我们预 ...

2.075 数据来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安证券研究预测 请务必阅读正文之后的免费条款部分 3 of 6 数据来源: Bloomberg,国泰君安证券研究预测 阿里巴巴-SW ( 9988 ) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|-----------|----------------|------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------------| | 图 2 阿里巴巴财务报表 (人民币 百万) \n利润表 | | | | 单位:有万元 | 黃产负债表 | | | | 单位:百万元 | | 器标名称 | | FY2023 FY2024E | FY2025E FY2026E | | 福新名称 | FY2023 | F ...