Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][25][39]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a 4% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 FY2025, reaching 243.2 billion yuan. The international digital commerce group, local life group, and Cainiao group significantly contributed to this growth, while Taobao, cloud business, and entertainment segments experienced flat growth [1][29]. - The company expects to complete its dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of August 2024, with trading expected to commence on September 9, 2024 [1][32]. - The company is focusing on core business investments, anticipating that non-core loss-making segments will gradually turn profitable over the next 1-2 years [6][18]. Financial Performance - For Q1 FY2025, the company's Non-GAAP net profit was 41.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 17%. Adjusted EBITA decreased by 1% to 45 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA margin down by 0.9 percentage points [1][6]. - The company plans to continue investing in user experience and technology infrastructure, particularly in the Taobao group, which saw a revenue decline of 1% to 113.4 billion yuan in the same quarter [1][14]. - The cloud computing segment reported a 6% year-on-year revenue increase to 26.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA margins improving from 2% to 9% due to strong demand for AI products and solutions [3][48]. Revenue Forecast and Financial Metrics - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 to 999.3 billion, 1,094.1 billion, and 1,201.8 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a slight downward adjustment of -1.8%, -1.5%, and -0.7% [18][25]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are set at 147.1 billion, 172.1 billion, and 182.6 billion yuan, with adjustments of 0.6%, 4.9%, and 1.7% [18][25]. - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 9 times for FY2025, with a target price range of 95-103 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 19%-29% from the current price [18][26].

公 司 研 究 投资评级：买入（维持） 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 《电商战略成效初现，双重上市有望 驱动流动性改善—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.5.16 《FY2024Q3 业绩符合预期，加大电商 投入及回购 —港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.2.9 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 吴柳燕（分析师） | 荀月（联系人） | | wuliuyan@kysec.cn | xunyue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号： S0790521110001 | 证书编号： S0790122100036 | 淘天份额趋稳，非电商业务持续改善，重视股东回报，维持"买入"评级 考虑到核心电商加大用户体验投入以稳定份额为优先目标，我们下调 FY2025 调 整后净利润预测至 1515 亿元（前值 1548亿），维持 FY2026-2027 年预测 1707/1891 亿元，对应同比增速-3.8%/12.7%/10.8%，对应摊薄后 EPS 为 8.1/9.3/10.6 元，当 前股价对应 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Alibaba-SW (9988) [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that multiple business segments have exceeded expectations in reducing losses, with steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to improve liquidity and catalyze stock price [4][51] - The monetization rate for Taobao and Tmall is anticipated to reach a turning point due to new service fee policies and overall site improvements [4][51] Financial Overview - Revenue for the quarter was slightly below expectations at RMB 243.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 40.7 billion, down 9% year-on-year [9][10] - The adjusted EBITA for Taobao and Tmall Group was RMB 48.81 billion, slightly above expectations [10] - The report projects slight adjustments to revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E, estimating revenues of RMB 1,039.2 billion, RMB 1,138.9 billion, and RMB 1,227.2 billion respectively [10][30] Business Segment Performance - Taobao and Tmall Group's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 113.4 billion, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 43% [17] - International commerce revenue grew by 32.4% year-on-year, with Lazada achieving monthly EBITA profitability [44] - The Cloud Intelligence segment saw a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year to RMB 26.55 billion, driven by AI-related product growth [48] - The Local Services segment reported a 12% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 16.2 billion, with a significant reduction in losses [20] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a target price of HKD 101 for Alibaba's stock for FY2025, reiterating the "Accumulate" rating [10][30] - The report emphasizes the expected improvement in shareholder returns and the steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect [10][51]

2024 年 8 月 16 日 公司研究 淘天 GMV 高单位数同增，AI 相关收入三位数同增 ——阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）2025 财年一季报点评 要点 公司 1QFY2025 综合毛利率上升 0.72 pct，期间费用率上升 5.40 pct 1QFY2025 公司以 58 亿美元回购总计 6.13 亿股普通股，FY2024 公司以 125 亿 美元回购总计 12.49 亿股普通股，其中 2024 年 5 月 23 日，公司发行可转换票 据，同时通过非公开市场交易回购约 12 亿美元的美国存托股。 维持盈利预测，维持"买入"评级 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 指标（元） FY2023 FY2024 FY2025E FY2026E FY2027E | | | | | | | 营业收入（亿元） | 8,687 | 9,412 | 10,173 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][30]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 243.24 billion yuan for 1QFY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.88%. However, the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased by 29.31% to 24.27 billion yuan [25][30]. - The comprehensive gross margin for 1QFY2025 increased by 0.72 percentage points to 39.93%, while the expense ratio rose by 5.40 percentage points to 25.30% [25][26][30]. - The company's AI-related product revenue saw a three-digit percentage increase, and the number of paid users on the Alibaba Cloud AI platform grew by over 200% quarter-on-quarter [12][30]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2023: 868.7 billion yuan - FY2024: 941.2 billion yuan - FY2025E: 1,017.3 billion yuan - FY2026E: 1,089.1 billion yuan - FY2027E: 1,159.5 billion yuan [3][35]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2023: 72.51 billion yuan - FY2024: 79.74 billion yuan - FY2025E: 85.45 billion yuan - FY2026E: 90.70 billion yuan - FY2027E: 94.56 billion yuan [3][35]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: FY2023: 36.72%, FY2024: 37.70%, FY2025E: 37.60% [20]. - Net Profit Margin: FY2023: 8.38%, FY2024: 8.50%, FY2025E: 8.40% [20]. Business Segment Highlights - **Taotian Group**: Achieved high single-digit year-on-year growth in GMV, with AI-related revenue increasing significantly. The number of 88VIP members exceeded 42 million [12][30]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Reported a three-digit growth in AI-related product revenue, with a substantial increase in paid users on the Alibaba Cloud AI platform [12][30]. - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Established a partnership with Brazilian retailer Magalu, showing significant improvement in the Choice business [12][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that external competition is easing, and initiatives like 88VIP and full-site promotions are expected to drive sustainable growth for the main platform [2]. - The Taobao business remains a core driver of the group's stock price, contributing 45% of the company's revenue and 118% of adjusted EBITA profit for FY2024 [6][16]. - The report notes that the e-commerce landscape is evolving, with significant market share shifts towards platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin, indicating a need for Alibaba to focus on core competencies to regain growth [34][56]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Taobao is the largest e-commerce platform in China, generating significant revenue through commissions and advertising fees, with a monetization rate of approximately 3.7% in 2023 [9][10]. Business Model - The business model primarily revolves around a platform approach, with Tmall and Taobao contributing equally to GMV, while Tmall focuses on brand-driven sales and Taobao emphasizes product variety [100]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the e-commerce market share has shifted from a "one super, two strong, two catch-up" structure to a "one super, one strong, two catch-up" structure, with Pinduoduo and Douyin gaining significant market share [35][56]. User Insights - Taobao has a large user base, with nearly 1 billion annual purchasing users, and the average annual spending per user is approximately 8,436 yuan [30]. Financial Performance - The report provides historical GMV data, showing a consistent growth trend from 71.75 billion yuan in 2017 to 154.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% in 2023 [36]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing pressure from emerging platforms, necessitating Alibaba to enhance its service offerings and user experience to maintain market leadership [34][56]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the introduction of 88VIP, there is potential for incremental GMV growth as member spending levels are expected to rise over time [94][144].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares (9988 HK) with a FY2025 target price of 94 HKD [1][24] Core Views - Alibaba's FY25 Q1 revenue is expected to reach 2521 billion RMB, up 8% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 374 billion RMB and a net profit margin of 14 8% [1] - The report slightly adjusts Alibaba's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue forecasts to 10,170/11,008/11,689 billion RMB (previously 10,278/11,182/11,870 billion RMB) and adjusted net profit to 1,520/1,690/1,804 billion RMB (previously 1,535/1,715/1,831 billion RMB) [1][7] - The company's 6-month share repurchase reached a record high of 5 8 billion USD, with 261 billion USD remaining in the repurchase quota valid until March 2027 [1] Business Segments - Taobao Group's GMV is expected to grow 5 5% YoY in FY25 Q1, driven by double-digit growth during the 618 shopping festival [1] - International commerce revenue is projected to increase 30% YoY to 28 9 billion RMB in FY25 Q1, with potential monetization rate improvement due to the partnership with Brazilian retailer Magalu [1] - Cloud intelligence revenue is forecasted to grow 5% YoY to 26 4 billion RMB in FY25 Q1, with a significant increase in enterprise customers using AI services [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's FY2023 revenue was 868 687 billion RMB, with a YoY growth of 1 8%, and is expected to grow 8 3% in FY2024 to 941 168 billion RMB [4] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for FY2023 was 141 379 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 16%, and is projected to reach 180 425 billion RMB by FY2027 [4] - Alibaba's cash and cash equivalents increased from 229 510 billion RMB in FY2023 to 310 850 billion RMB in FY2024, and are expected to reach 768 964 billion RMB by FY2027 [9] Strategic Developments - Alibaba is progressing with its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, potentially enabling inclusion in the Stock Connect program as early as September 2024 [1] - The company's focus on user experience and price competitiveness in the Taobao Group segment has shown initial results, with potential for monetization rate improvement as the full-site promotion tool expands [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (9988 HK) [1][7] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q1 total revenue is expected to reach RMB 2 494 billion (YoY +7% QoQ +12%) with adjusted EBITA declining 11% YoY to RMB 405 billion and adjusted EBITA margin at 16% [5] - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 1 200 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 41% [5] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at -13% [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 million in FY2024A to RMB 1 018 411 million in FY2025E RMB 1 131 199 million in FY2026E and RMB 1 256 349 million in FY2027E [3] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow from RMB 79 741 million in FY2024A to RMB 87 017 million in FY2025E RMB 106 434 million in FY2026E and RMB 121 033 million in FY2027E [3] - Diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 3 99 in FY2024A to RMB 4 36 in FY2025E RMB 5 33 in FY2026E and RMB 6 06 in FY2027E [3] - P E ratio is expected to decrease from 18 27x in FY2024A to 16 74x in FY2025E 13 69x in FY2026E and 12 04x in FY2027E [3] Business Segment Analysis - Taobao Tmall Group's GMV is expected to grow 9% YoY in FY2025Q1 with customer management revenue (including commissions) growing 4% YoY to RMB 828 billion [1] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion in FY2025Q1 driven by strong growth in international retail commerce (YoY +41%) and steady growth in international wholesale commerce (YoY +10%) [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion in FY2025Q1 with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report gives Alibaba a target market capitalization of RMB 2 127 1 billion for FY2025 corresponding to a target price of RMB 110 yuan HKD 118 per share [7]

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