买入（维持） ◼ 事件：2021 年 4 月，国家市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》，对阿里巴巴 集团在国内网络零售平台实施商户"二选一"垄断行为作出行政处罚， 并要求公司全面整改，连续 3 年向市场监管总局提交自查合规报告。 2024 年 8 月 30 日，市场监管总局发布公告，宣布阿里巴巴集团完成三 年整改，指出合规整改工作取得良好成效，未来将指导公司持续规范经 营。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：基于监管风险进一步下降，我们维持公司 2025/2026 财年 EPS 的盈利预测 8.00/8.67 元，并预计 2027 年的 EPS 为 9.38 元，2025-2027 财年对应 PE（Non-GAAP）为 9.36/8.64/7.98（以 2024/8/30 当天的汇率港币/人民币=0.91 为基准）。公司非常注重各个板 块业务的效率的提升，大规模投入虽然影响短期业绩，但是有助于构建 长期壁垒。综合考虑公司业务成长、竞争优势与壁垒，我们认为公司当 前估值水平具备较强的投资价值，维持公司"买入"评级。 股价走势 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------- ...

阿里巴巴-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|---------|---------|-------------------------|-----------|-----------| | 公司主要财务信息 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 868,687 | 941,168 | 1,016,506 | 1,093,269 | 1,188,249 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.83% | 8.34% | 8.00% | 7.55% | 8.69% | | 营业利润 ( 百万元 ) | 100,351 | 113,350 | 131,479 | 157,474 | 176,828 | | 同比增长 (%) | 44.10% | 12.95% | 15.99% | 19.77% | 12.29% | | 归属母公司净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 72,509 | 79,741 | 103,320 | ...

一年内最高/最低(港元) 94.00/64.60 特别声明 港股公司报告 | 公司点评 港股总市值(百万港元) 1,552,007.76 云智能、本地生活盈利释放，8 月底或完成双重上市 港股总股本(百万股) 19,008.06 资产负债率(%) 40.99 淘宝天猫集团：FY25Q1 收入 1134 亿元，经调整 EBITA为 448 亿元。1）公司对具价格竞争力 的商品、客户服务、会员体系权益和技术等战略举措加大投入，带来更高的消费者留存率和 购买频次。2）通过在推荐和匹配算法等技术上的投入，通过由多元化供应商提供更多有价格 竞争力的供给，改善产品与用户需求的匹配度，提升用户流量转化为购买力。3）4 月推出 AI 驱动的全平台市场营销工具"全站推广"，具备自动出价、优化目标人群定位和效果看板可 视化功能，有望提高商家市场营销投入及改善其市场营销效率，目前使用产品的商家数稳步 提升。4）购买人数和购买频次的增长下，线上 GMV 同比高单位数增长，订单量同比双位数 增长。公司成功举办淘宝天猫 618 购物节，其线上 GMV 同比实现强劲增长。5）高端消费者 方面，88VIP 会员数量持续同比双位数增长，超过 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating due to the company's strong business growth, competitive advantages, and valuation attractiveness [2][58] Core Views - The company's strategic investments in multiple businesses have driven revenue growth, with international digital commerce, cloud intelligence, and local services showing significant increases [1][33] - Short-term profitability may decline due to ongoing investments, but long-term profit quality is expected to improve as new businesses turn profitable [1][77] - The company's focus on efficiency and large-scale investments will help build long-term barriers [2][58] Business Performance Summary International Digital Commerce - Revenue reached RMB 292.93 billion, up 32% YoY, driven by increased investments in Choice and Trendyol cross-border businesses [1][54] - Adjusted EBITA improved to -RMB 3.71 billion, narrowing by RMB 379 million QoQ [54] Cloud Intelligence - Revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB 265.49 billion, with public cloud and AI-related products driving growth [1][37] - AI-related products saw triple-digit growth, and the number of paying users on the AI platform increased by over 200% QoQ [37] Local Services - Revenue increased 12% YoY to RMB 162.29 billion, driven by growth in Amap and Ele.me orders, as well as marketing services [1][34] - Losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency and scale [34] Cainiao - Revenue grew 16% YoY to RMB 268.11 billion, supported by cross-border logistics solutions [84] - Cainiao's global logistics network and end-to-end capabilities are expected to enhance synergies with cross-border e-commerce [36] Taotian Group - GMV grew by high single digits YoY, driven by increased purchase frequency and the 618 shopping festival [73] - The 88VIP membership program saw double-digit growth, exceeding 42 million members [73] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted EPS forecasts for FY2025/2026 were revised to RMB 8.00/8.67, with FY2027 EPS expected at RMB 9.38 [2][58] - Non-GAAP PE ratios for FY2025-2027 are projected at 9.36x, 8.64x, and 7.98x, respectively [2][58] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%-9.5% from FY2025 to FY2027, with net profit growth of 13.97%-33.88% [19][44]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 阿里巴巴-SW（9988）公司季报点评 2024 年 08 月 21 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | 股票数据 | | | 8[Table_StockInfo 月 21 日收盘价（港元） ] | 80.0 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 63.2-90.8 | | 总股本/流通股（百万股） | 19345/19345 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） | 1546672/1546672 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《淘天 GMV | 同比双位数增长，业务投入初见 | | 成效》 2024.06.09 | | | 《新增 250 | 亿美元回购计划，聚焦核心业务》 | | 2024.03.06 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] - ...

FY25Q1 业绩点评：利润改善明显，GMV 高个位数增长 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 月23日可转换票据发行同时透过非公开市场交易回购的约12亿美元的 美国存托股。 ⚫ 投资建议 我们预计阿里巴巴 FY2025-2027 收入为 10061.78/10871.18/11658.42 亿元，同比+6.9%/+8.0%/+7.22%；Non-GAAP 净利润预计录得 1508.15 /1695.90 /1842.03 亿元，同比-4%/+12%/+9%，维持"买入"评级。 ⚫ 风险提示 政策风险；宏观经济增长不及预期；经营效率优化不及预期风险。 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2 / 4 证券研究报告 [Table_CompanyRptType1] 阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|--------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------|-------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [9][22]. Core Insights - The company's core domestic e-commerce business is approaching a take rate inflection point, with expectations that the gap between CMR revenue and GMV growth will gradually narrow. Operational efficiency improvements are anticipated to lead multiple business segments to achieve breakeven and contribute profits over time [1]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.03 trillion, 1.14 trillion, and 1.25 trillion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with net profits of 933.68 billion, 1,115.26 billion, and 1,340.20 billion yuan, and EPS of 4.58, 5.47, and 6.58 yuan respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company is expected to generate operating revenue of 1,033.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.80%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 93.368 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.70% [9][10]. - The company’s operating cash flow is expected to improve from 126.058 billion yuan in FY2025 to 167.697 billion yuan in FY2027, indicating a positive trend in cash generation [4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the adjusted EBITA for the cloud intelligence group, which is expected to reach 23.37 billion yuan in FY25Q1, a year-on-year increase of 155% [11]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected ROE of 10.66% for FY2027, with a net profit margin expected to reach 10.24% [3][5]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decline from 22.80 in FY2026 to 12.38 in FY2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [9][10].

gszqdatemark CMR 变现或提速，基本面望多方改善 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 淘天：加强商业化效率，CMR 增速望逐渐匹配 GMV 增速。淘天集团始 终以用户体验为先的战略已经初见成效，本季度淘天的 GMV 订单量均维 持稳定增长，主要驱动因素是用户购买频次的明显提升。从用户数据来看， 截至本季度末，88VIP 会员数已经达到 4200 万。 云智能：公有云健康增长，AI 相关收入提升。2025Q1 云业务收入为 265 亿元人民币，同比增长 6%，其中，公共云收入同比双位数增长，AI 相关 收入同比三位数增长。经调整 EBITA 同比增长 155%至 23 亿元人民币， 运营效率和产品结构有所改善。考虑到客户对于 AI 产品的需求，公司未 来将继续较大规模的投资，我们预计下半财年云业务将恢复双位数增长。 推动香港主要上市。公司将在 8 月 22 号召开股东大会，予以批准后望在 8 月底完成主要上市地转变，我们预计公司有望纳入港股通、提升流动性。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|- ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 阿 里 巴 巴 FY25Q1 点评：云和 AI 驱动增长，多业务亏损收窄 盈利预测：（本文表中年份为财年） 证券研究报告 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 08/24 阿里巴巴 标普500 SFC CE No. AOB364 SW(09988.HK):FY24Q4 点 SW(09988.HK):FY24Q3 前 [Table_PageText] 阿里巴巴|季报点评 孟 鑫 ：资深分析师，重庆大学技术经济及管理硕士，曾任职于国盛证券、西南证券，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 买入： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 10%以上。 增持： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 5%-15%。 [Table_I 重要mportant 声明Notices] 本报告署名研究人员、联系人（以下均简称"研究人员"）针对本报告中相关公司或证券的研究分析内容，在此声明：（1）本报告的全部 分析结论、研究观点均精确反映研究人员于本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) with a target price of HKD 85 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 87 for the US-listed shares [30][31] Core Views - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall (T&T) market share remains stable, with international e-commerce losses narrowing sequentially [29] - Cloud business is expected to recover, with external cloud revenue projected to return to double-digit growth in the second half of FY25, driven by AI-related products [25] - FY1Q25 revenue of RMB 2432 billion grew 4% YoY, missing market expectations by 2 6%, while adjusted net profit of RMB 407 billion declined 9% YoY but exceeded market expectations by 7 3% [15] - Alibaba repurchased approximately USD 5 8 billion in shares during FY1Q25, reducing ordinary shares by 2 3% compared to the previous quarter [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 868 687 million in FY23 to RMB 1,153,387 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 3% [1] - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 318,992 million in FY23 to RMB 461,355 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 10 0% [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 141,379 million in FY23 to RMB 188,825 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [1] - The adjusted target P/E ratio is expected to decline from 10 2x in FY25E to 8 1x in FY27E [1] Segment Performance - T&T revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 932 billion in FY1Q25, with customer management revenue (CMR) growing only 1% YoY and direct sales revenue dropping 9% YoY [29] - International commerce revenue grew 32% YoY to RMB 293 billion in FY1Q25, with AliExpress Choice showing strong performance and Lazada achieving its first monthly EBITDA profit in July [29] - Cloud revenue increased 6% YoY to RMB 265 billion in FY1Q25, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud and triple-digit growth in AI-related products [25] Valuation and Market Data - Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares (9988 HK) have a current price of HKD 76 4, with a 52-week range of HKD 64 0-93 1 and a market cap of HKD 1,547,639 million [2] - Alibaba's US-listed shares (BABA US) have a current price of USD 79 5, with a 52-week range of USD 66 0-95 8 and a market cap of USD 192,342 million [31] - The 3-month average daily trading volume for Hong Kong-listed shares is HKD 3,405 4 million, while for US-listed shares, it is USD 1,061 9 million [2][31]