Core Viewpoint - Alibaba reported strong financial results for FY25Q4, with revenues and adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, particularly in its Taobao Tmall Group and cloud business segments [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY25Q4 revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 30 billion yuan [1]. - Capital expenditures for FY25Q4 were 24.6 billion yuan, down from 31.8 billion yuan in the previous quarter [1]. Business Segment Analysis Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 101.4 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3.6%, with retail revenue of 95.6 billion yuan [1][2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by an increase in take rate due to software service fees and improved penetration of "full-site push" [2]. - The number of 88VIP members exceeded 50 million, continuing to grow at a double-digit year-on-year rate [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - FY25Q4 revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, but adjusted EBITDA was 2.4 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 14.3% [1][2]. - Revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in public cloud revenue, with AI-related product adoption increasing significantly [2]. AIDC - FY25Q4 revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -3.6 billion yuan, but revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, driven by strong cross-border business performance [3]. - AIDC focused on improving operational and investment efficiency, with losses narrowing year-on-year [3]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 21.6 billion yuan with adjusted EBITDA of -610 million yuan [3]. - Local life services revenue was 16.1 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -2.3 billion yuan [3]. - DME revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 36 million yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, the company repurchased 51 million shares for 600 million USD, and for FY25, it repurchased 1.197 billion shares for 11.9 billion USD, resulting in a net reduction of 995 million shares [4]. - The board approved a total dividend of 0.25 USD per share, including a regular cash dividend and a special cash dividend, totaling approximately 4.6 billion USD [4]. Investment Outlook - The cloud business revenue met expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining rapid growth [4]. - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by customer management revenue and improved take rates [4]. - AIDC's profitability improved, with losses narrowing and unit economics of AliExpress's Choice business showing improvement [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4] Core Views - Alibaba's e-commerce business remains robust, with AI driving accelerated growth in cloud revenue [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having repurchased $11.9 billion in shares and approved a total dividend of $4.6 billion for FY2025 [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth for FY2025 to FY2027, estimating revenues of CNY 1.10 trillion, CNY 1.19 trillion, and CNY 1.28 trillion respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 160.1 billion, CNY 183.2 billion, and CNY 200.9 billion [3] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024A, Alibaba's revenue is projected at CNY 941.17 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 8.34% [8] - The adjusted net profit for FY2024A is expected to be CNY 79.74 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.97% [8] - The report indicates a steady increase in EPS, projected to reach CNY 9.93 by FY2028E [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.72 in FY2024A to 11.29 in FY2028E, indicating improved valuation over time [8] E-commerce Business Insights - The e-commerce segment, specifically Taotian Group, achieved revenue of CNY 710.77 billion in FY25Q4, a 12% increase year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The growth is attributed to increased software service fees and enhanced marketing efficiency for small and medium-sized businesses [2] - The report anticipates continued growth in the Take Rate due to improved advertising tool penetration and AI applications enhancing user experience [2] Cloud Business Insights - Cloud revenue for FY25Q4 grew by 18% year-over-year to CNY 301.27 billion, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [3] - The report highlights a shift in the customer base from large enterprises to small and medium-sized businesses, with significant investments in AI continuing [3] - Despite increased investments leading to a slight decline in adjusted EBITA margin, the outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988) is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY25Q4 reached 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 billion yuan, indicating strong performance across its business segments [1]. - The Taobao Tmall Group generated 101.4 billion yuan in revenue, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3.6%, driven by a 12% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue due to improved take rates [2]. - The cloud business reported 30.1 billion yuan in revenue, with an 18% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the rapid adoption of AI-related products, which have maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. - The AIDC segment achieved 33.6 billion yuan in revenue, with a 22% year-on-year increase, supported by strong cross-border business performance [3]. - Shareholder returns included a buyback of 6 billion USD for 51 million shares in FY25, and a total of 11.97 billion shares repurchased for 11.9 billion USD, resulting in a net reduction of 995 million shares [4]. Summary by Sections Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 101.4 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.7 billion yuan. Customer management revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, benefiting from improved take rates and ongoing investments in user growth and service optimization [2]. Cloud Business - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 30.1 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 2.4 billion yuan. The cloud segment's revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, driven by the increasing adoption of AI products across various industries [2]. AIDC - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 33.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -3.6 billion yuan. The segment's revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, focusing on operational efficiency and strategic market expansion [3]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated 21.6 billion yuan in revenue with adjusted EBITDA of -610 million yuan. Local life services reported 16.1 billion yuan in revenue with adjusted EBITDA of -2.3 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY25, Alibaba repurchased shares worth 11.9 billion USD, leading to a net reduction in shares outstanding. The board approved a total dividend of 0.25 USD per share, amounting to approximately 4.6 billion USD [4]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates revenue growth for FY 2026-2028 to be 1,035.3 billion, 1,105.7 billion, and 1,179.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of 180.7 billion, 185.9 billion, and 195.7 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in FY25Q4 showed a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%). The international digital commerce group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%) [5] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In FY25Q4, the company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 29.8 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [4][5] Segment Performance - Taobao Group: Revenue of 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%) [5] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan [5] - Local Life Group: Revenue of 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan [5] - Cainiao Group: Revenue of 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan [6] - Entertainment Group: Revenue of 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5] Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business showed accelerated growth with a revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), surpassing Bloomberg's expectations. The AI business has seen continuous triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan for the same period [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY25Q4, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, with notable performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1][8] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 32.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year, driven by revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [1][8] - The company announced a dividend of $0.25 per share for FY25, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [1][8] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Taobao Group's revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, growing 9% year-over-year, with a CMR increase of 12% [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao Group was 41.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its instant retail capabilities through the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase [2][14] Cloud Computing - Cloud business revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3][15] - AI-related product revenue continued to grow at triple-digit rates for the seventh consecutive quarter [3][15] - The company maintained its three-year CAPEX plan of 380 billion yuan, with a CAPEX of 24.6 billion yuan for the quarter, up 68% year-over-year [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been adjusted to 1,052.0 billion yuan and 1,124.6 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 2% downward adjustment [4][25] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 are 166.9 billion yuan and 182.1 billion yuan, respectively, also reflecting a 3% downward adjustment [4][25] - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately $6 billion worth of shares in the quarter, totaling about 119 billion yuan for the fiscal year [1][24] - The total shareholder return for FY25 is estimated at around 16.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a shareholder return rate of approximately 5% [1][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported total revenue of 2364.54 billion RMB for FY2025 Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on accelerating growth in e-commerce and cloud services while maintaining strong investments in AI technology [3]. Summary by Business Segment - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue reached 1014 billion RMB, a 9% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - **International Commerce**: Revenue was 336 billion RMB, showing a 22% year-on-year growth, although adjusted EBITA was -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: Revenue grew by 18% to 301 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 69% to approximately 24 billion RMB [2][3]. - **Cainiao**: Revenue decreased by 12% to 216 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA at -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - **Local Services**: Revenue increased by 10% to 161 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA of -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - **Digital Entertainment**: Revenue was 55.5 billion RMB, up 12%, with adjusted EBITA turning positive, primarily driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2025 Q4 reached 2364.54 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in e-commerce and cloud services, with a strong commitment to AI investments [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown by Business Segment - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue of 1014 billion RMB, up 9% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - **International Commerce**: Revenue of 336 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: Revenue of 301 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 24 billion RMB, a 69% increase [2][3]. - **Cainiao**: Revenue of 216 billion RMB, down 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - **Local Services**: Revenue of 161 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - **Digital Entertainment**: Revenue of 55.5 billion RMB, up 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA turned positive, mainly driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Alibaba's capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 246 billion RMB, reflecting the company's unwavering commitment to AI technology and product development [3]. - The report indicates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating in the upcoming quarters due to strong demand for AI-related products across various industries [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates, non-GAAP net profit projections, and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the upcoming fiscal years [6][15]. - The projected EPS for FY2026 is 8.4 RMB, increasing to 10.9 RMB by FY2028 [6][15]. Conclusion - The report highlights Alibaba's robust performance in e-commerce and cloud services, alongside a strong focus on AI investments, positioning the company for continued growth in the coming years [1][3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The e-commerce business is experiencing revenue and profit recovery driven by GMV growth and an increase in take rate, indicating a stable fundamental value for the company. The cloud business is accelerating growth due to AI, and other new business operations are showing upward trends, gradually realizing loss reduction expectations. Overall, the company has a solid fundamental base with upward potential, making it a meaningful investment at the current valuation level [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 941.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 79.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10% [7]. - For FY2025, revenue is forecasted at 995.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, and net profit is expected to rise to 129.47 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 62.4% [7]. - Projections for FY2026 to FY2028 indicate revenues of 1,084.21 billion yuan, 1,176.79 billion yuan, and 1,268.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 142.48 billion yuan, 165.45 billion yuan, and 186.41 billion yuan, showing consistent growth rates [6][7]. Segment Performance - The core segment performance for Q4 FY25 met expectations, with Taotian Group's customer management revenue growing by 11.8% and EBITA increasing by 8.4% year-on-year. The platform's take rate has improved, contributing to accelerated performance growth [6]. - The Intelligent Cloud Group reported a revenue growth of 17.7%, entering an accelerated growth phase driven by AI, although EBITA margin decreased slightly [6]. - The International Retail Business continued its high growth trend with a revenue increase of 22.3%, and improvements in EBITA margin were noted [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecasted P/E ratio of 27.2 for FY2024, decreasing to 11.6 by FY2028, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [7]. - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2.2 in FY2024 to 1.4 in FY2028, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The core business shows steady growth, with a strong ongoing demand for AI [1] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q4, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7% [9] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 41.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [9] - The net profit surged to 12 billion yuan, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1203% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025Q4, Alibaba achieved: - Revenue: 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -16%) [9] - Operating profit: 28.5 billion yuan (YoY +93%, QoQ -31%) [9] - Adjusted EBITDA: 41.8 billion yuan (YoY +36%, QoQ -33%) [9] - Net profit: 12 billion yuan (YoY +1203%, QoQ -74%) [9] - Non-GAAP net profit: 29.8 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ -42%) [9] Business Segment Performance - Taobao Group: - Revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [11] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 12% [11] - Adjusted EBITA was 41.7 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 41% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group: - Revenue grew by 22% to 33.6 billion yuan, driven by strong cross-border business performance [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group: - Revenue increased by 18% to 30.1 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [39] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are as follows: - FY2026: 1,087.3 billion yuan - FY2027: 1,193.2 billion yuan - FY2028: 1,312.5 billion yuan [44] - Projected net profits for the same period are: - FY2026: 144.5 billion yuan - FY2027: 169.3 billion yuan - FY2028: 192.8 billion yuan [44] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 2,958.2 billion yuan for FY2026, corresponding to a target price of 155 yuan per share [44]