Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that gold prices are expected to rise rapidly and reach new highs by December 2025, although the current fundamentals do not support this rapid increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market conditions indicate that speculative funds have overflowed into the gold market due to a short squeeze in silver [1] - The company advises caution for market participants in the short term [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, CITIC Securities sees a strong likelihood of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [1] - The model predicts that under neutral assumptions, international gold prices could exceed $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1] - The geopolitical landscape and China-U.S. trade relations are expected to remain relatively stable through 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that incremental capital entering the market will not be the main factor for the market to reach a new level in 2026, with the biggest expectation gap coming from the balance between external and internal demand [1] - The trend of imposing tariffs externally and subsidizing domestic demand is expected to be a major direction, with this year being an important starting point [1] - The market is likely to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the year, considering the relatively low capital enthusiasm at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The A-share cross-year market trend is unfolding as expected, with the liquidity and exchange rate environment at the beginning of this year being significantly better than the previous two years [1] - The strong renminbi exchange rate and favorable external environment may lead to a "New Year Red" market for A-shares after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including renminbi appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market, are expected to drive the A-share cross-year market [1] Group 3 - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4000 points after 34 trading days, with a rise of 0.85% to 4002.40 points [2] - Insurance stocks led the gains, while sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors were active [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 1220.25 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 597.43 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 91.56 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 67.04 billion yuan, legal fees for 8.21 billion yuan, and audit fees for 16.31 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees by segment are ranked as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shanghai Main Board, ChiNext, Shenzhen Main Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The average underwriting fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11,337.61 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2,222.30 thousand yuan [5][6] - The total underwriting fees are led by CITIC Securities with 12.44 billion yuan from 15 deals, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Jinshi with 9.96 billion yuan and 8.82 billion yuan, respectively [8][10] Legal Fees - The top three law firms by total fees are Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Zhejiang Tiance, with total fees of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 0.57 billion yuan, respectively [11] - The average legal fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [5] Audit Fees - The leading audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng, Tianjian, and Lixin, with total fees of 4.17 billion yuan, 2.86 billion yuan, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively [12][14] - The average audit fee is highest in the Shanghai Main Board at 1,851.80 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [6] Overall Fee Structure - The total fees for intermediaries in the IPO process are distributed as follows: underwriting fees (67.04 billion yuan), legal fees (8.21 billion yuan), and audit fees (16.31 billion yuan) [1][4] - The average fees across segments indicate that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board commands the highest fees overall, while the Beijing Stock Exchange has the lowest average fees [5][6]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened the year with strong sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index jumping over 1% to exceed 4000 points for the first time in 34 trading days [1] - The chief A-share strategist at CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, indicated that the biggest expectation gap for 2026 lies in balancing external and internal demand, suggesting that external tariffs and subsidies for domestic demand will be a trend [1] - Wang Bo from the Huaxia Fund emphasized the importance of positioning in broad-based indices, recommending a dual approach: actively investing in high-growth sectors while also preparing to capitalize on market fluctuations by investing in low-priced assets [1] Group 2 - Recommended sectors for investment include computing power, new energy, power grid equipment, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, which are expected to experience high prosperity and recovery [1] - The suggested ETFs for investment include the Huashang 300 ETF (510330.SH) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) [2]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has shown a positive stock performance with a 2.16% increase on January 5, 2025, and a total market capitalization of 434.69 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and capital inflow [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 5, 2025, CITIC Securities' stock price reached 29.33 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 2.658 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.75% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 2.16%, with a 1.28% rise over the last five trading days and a 7.83% increase over the last 20 days, while it has decreased by 1.08% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, CITIC Securities reported operating revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.159 billion yuan, up 37.86% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of CITIC Securities shareholders reached 669,400, an increase of 1.64% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 1.61% to 18,192 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 88.704 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 22.009 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector for 2026, indicating strong upward momentum for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a significant upward breakthrough in 2026, driven by improved chip structure, reduced turnover rates, and a favorable valuation environment. The sector is currently undervalued compared to its earnings potential [4]. - The insurance sector shows signs of stabilization post the interest rate switch, with premium growth expected to improve in 2026, particularly in the life insurance segment [4]. - Regulatory changes, including the completion of public fund fee reforms, are anticipated to benefit the non-bank financial sector by reducing costs for investors and enhancing market participation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,629.94 with a decline of 0.59% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 1.84%, with brokerages and insurance indices declining by 1.37% and 3.33%, respectively [8][10]. Non-Bank Financial Insights - The brokerage sector's index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.78 percentage points in 2025, with a total decline of 2.05% for the year. In contrast, major A-share indices saw significant gains [4]. - The insurance sector's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. The life insurance segment grew by 9.2% during the same period [4][31]. Investment Analysis - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming market revaluation, with a focus on the growth of new business premiums [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new rules for public real estate investment trusts (REITs), expanding financing options for commercial properties [21]. - The completion of the public fund fee reform is expected to lower overall fund costs by approximately 20%, saving investors around 51 billion yuan annually [22].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in cross-regional passenger flow during the New Year's holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3% in daily average passenger flow [1][2] - The aviation sector is expected to see a turning point in profitability due to high demand and limited supply, leading to a potential increase in average ticket prices during the holiday [3][4] Passenger Flow Statistics - Daily average passenger flow for civil aviation, railways, highways, and non-commercial vehicles increased by 8.4%, 42.0%, and 14.2% respectively during the first two days of the New Year holiday [2][5] - The total daily average cross-regional passenger flow reached 19.6087 million, with civil aviation achieving a daily average of 1.901 million passengers, marking a 9.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] Demand Drivers - The increase in passenger flow is attributed to the three-day holiday and the "3 days off, 8 days off" policy, which stimulated travel demand [2][5] - Popular travel destinations, such as Harbin and Sanya, saw significant growth in flight bookings, with increases of 18% to 52% for various routes [2][3] Airline Capacity and Pricing - The growth in passenger volume outpaced the increase in flight numbers, which only grew by 2.0%, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][4] - The average ticket price for the holiday is expected to turn positive year-on-year due to high demand and industry price discipline [3][4] New Aircraft Orders - Three airlines, including Air China and Spring Airlines, announced the purchase of 115 Airbus A320 aircraft, with a total value of approximately $17.76 billion, expected to be delivered between 2028 and 2032 [4] - The impact of these new orders on capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be limited due to various factors affecting delivery timelines [4] Cash Flow and Dividend Appeal - The increase in passenger flow during the holiday is expected to stabilize cash flow for transportation companies, making high-dividend stocks more attractive, with dividend yields returning to around 4.5% [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist at CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will exhibit a pattern of low growth followed by high growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market trend is expected to be influenced by the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections, divided into three phases: 1. From now until the trade agreement is finalized, the market's upward slope is expected to slow down 2. From the agreement's implementation to the end of the midterm elections, A-shares are likely to experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. After the midterm elections, uncertainties from external disturbances may increase sharply, prompting investors to refocus on domestic factors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, significantly expanding market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which is expected to further expand its commercial applications and enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where although the outlook for domestic demand-related sectors is generally moderate, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday showing growth in both the number of travelers and total spending compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Domestic Travel Performance - The number of domestic travelers and total spending during the New Year holiday is projected to increase by approximately 5% and 6% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - The overall performance of domestic tourism aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] Group 2: Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales data has outperformed expectations, with sales from offshore duty-free shops increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Continuous policy benefits are being released, prompting duty-free businesses to actively launch promotional activities [1] Group 3: Hotel and Scenic Area Performance - Hotel night stays have shown significant growth, although prices still have a gap compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Scenic areas have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic spots being particularly outstanding [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming Spring Festival will have a nine-day holiday, which is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm and market performance [1]

Overall Market Outlook - The domestic tourism market is expected to perform well in 2026, with a projected increase of approximately 5% in domestic travel volume and 6% in total spending during the New Year holiday compared to 2024 [1] - The recovery trend remains K-shaped, with a low base effect for mid-tier consumer leaders and a shift from pilot exploration to large-scale replication in outbound demand [1] Domestic Travel Performance - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a 5.2% increase from 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [1] - The average spending per person increased by 1.1% compared to 2024, driven by a rich supply of winter tourism options [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 198 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales during the New Year holiday saw a significant increase, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [2] - The number of shoppers increased by 60.6% compared to the previous year, indicating strong recovery post-border closure [2] Scenic Spots Performance - Major scenic spots showed strong performance, with Songcheng performing 67 shows, a 52.3% increase from 2024, and Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors, up 76.5% [3] - Emei Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain also reported significant increases in visitor numbers, with growth rates of 20.9% and approximately 30% respectively [3] Online Travel Agency (OTA) Trends - The "please take 3 days off for 8 days" trend boosted long-distance travel demand, with significant increases in flight and hotel bookings [4] - High-quality hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in bookings, with domestic hotel reservations increasing by 280% on January 1 [4] Hotel Industry Insights - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels during the New Year holiday was 204.3 yuan, a 13.8% increase from 2025, although still lower than 2024 [6] - The occupancy rate for hotels was 59.4%, showing a 2.9 percentage point increase from 2025 [6] Restaurant Sector Activity - Restaurant consumption was vibrant, with a 142% increase in traffic for the "must-eat" list during the New Year holiday [7] - Major cities reported significant growth in restaurant sales, with Beijing's dining sector up 4.6% and Guangzhou's up 18.9% year-on-year [7]