作者 | 一财阿驴 12月8日，A股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，沪指涨0.54%，深成指涨1.39%，创业板指涨2.6%。 2025.12. 08 本文字数：754，阅读时长大约2分钟 机构观点 华泰证券： 12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性 价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | { | 3924.08c | 21.27 | 0.54% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13329.99c | 182.31 | 1.39% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3190.27 c | 80.97 | 2.60% | 盘面上，算力硬件概念股多点开花，CPO方向领涨；锂矿、光刻机、超硬材料、消费电子、商业航 天题材活跃。煤炭、油气等资源股走弱。 具体来看，福建本地股全线走强，厦门信达、永辉超市、安记食品等超20股涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | -- ...

12月6日，证监会主席吴清关于"适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制"的表态引发关注，市场热议的焦点直指中外投行的"杠杆鸿沟"——当前我国证券业平均杠杆 率仅为3.29倍，与高盛、摩根士丹利等国际顶流投行10~15倍的水平相比差距悬殊。有众多声音呼吁，中信证券、国泰海通等头部机构应以此为契机，加速 向国际一流机构看齐。 不过，在一片"对标华尔街"的呼声中，业内资深人士却给出了冷静的"降温"判断。 中国证券业协会最新数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，150家证券公司总资产为13.46万亿元，净资产为3.23万亿元，客户交易结算资金余额（含信用交易资 金）2.82万亿元，行业整体杠杆率为3.29倍。这一数据相较于2024年微幅下降，但也维持在2021年以来的相对高位区间窄幅震荡。 12月8日，一位沪上资深券商人士直言，鉴于国内外监管环境与业务模式的本质差异，国内机构不应盲目迷信海外混业经营下的高杠杆数值。他研判，在"扶 优限劣"的新常态下，未来3~5年国内券商行业合理杠杆区间应在4~5倍，行业将从单纯的规模追逐转向对资本效率与风险定价能力的深度角逐。数据透视： 全行业杠杆率3.29倍窄幅震荡，最高为5.31倍 在监管信号 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the market index [3][19]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has proposed to optimize evaluation indicators for quality institutions and moderately expand capital space and leverage limits, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the brokerage industry and support high-quality development [1]. - The report highlights that leverage is a key factor in improving the Return on Equity (ROE) for brokerages, with historical data showing a significant increase in ROE from 3.2% in 2018 to 7.5% in Q3 2025, driven by an increase in client funds leverage from 3.27 times to 4.09 times [6]. - The brokerage industry is expected to continue optimizing its structure, focusing on "large and strong" firms and "small and beautiful" firms, promoting differentiated regulation to enhance the competitive landscape [6]. Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - The CSRC's recent announcements are aimed at creating a favorable environment for brokerages to increase leverage and expand their balance sheets, which is anticipated to lead to a stronger industry overall [1][6]. Financial Performance Metrics - As of Q3 2025, the leverage ratio for listed brokerages in China stands at 4.09 times, significantly lower than the 12-15 times leverage ratios of leading international investment banks, indicating substantial room for growth in domestic brokerages [6]. - The top ten listed brokerages have a leverage ratio of 4.54 times, while the ratios for the next tiers are 3.59 times and 2.99 times, respectively, suggesting that larger firms are more proactive in capital operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on large brokerages with significant competitive advantages, such as CITIC Securities, China Galaxy, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities, as well as smaller firms with effective niche strategies like Western Securities and Huaxi Securities [7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3928.73 points, above the annual line, with a gain of 0.66% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 16683.26 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 81 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including Tianli Composite, Wanshili, and Sanrenxing, showing divergence rates of 11.85%, 9.63%, and 9.17% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that just crossed the annual line include Mingyang Electric, Meixin Technology, and Yinzhijie [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - Tianli Composite (code: 920576) had a daily increase of 20.67% with a divergence rate of 11.85% [1] - Wanshili (code: 301066) increased by 10.08% with a divergence rate of 9.63% [1] - Sanrenxing (code: 605168) rose by 10.00% with a divergence rate of 9.17% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Nanjing Shanglv (code: 600250) increased by 9.98% with a divergence rate of 8.18% [1] - Xiexin Integrated (code: 002506) rose by 9.96% with a divergence rate of 7.86% [1] - Daye Co. (code: 603278) increased by 9.98% with a divergence rate of 7.79% [1]

截至2025年12月8日 13:30，国证证券龙头指数(399437)强势上涨3.56%，成分股兴业证券(601377)上涨 10.00%，华泰证券(601688)上涨4.95%，国泰海通(601211)上涨4.41%，中信证券(600030)，国信证券 (002736)等个股跟涨。证券ETF龙头(159993)上涨3.50%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.33元。 证券ETF龙头紧密跟踪国证证券龙头指数，为反映沪深市场证券主题优质上市公司的市场表现，并为投 资者提供更丰富的指数化投资工具，编制国证证券龙头指数。 政策催化下，金融板块持续走高，消息面上，证监会相关负责人表示，将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限 劣"。对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效 率；对中小券商、外资券商在分类评价、业务准入等方面探索实施差异化监管，促进特色化发展；对于 少数问题券商要依法从严监管，违法的从严惩治。此外，今年以来，在资本市场向好走势带动下，券商 业绩表现亮眼。前三季度，43家A股上市券商合计净利润同比增长62.48%。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证证券龙头指数(399 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong overall performance this week, with brokerages expected to maintain high growth trends in 2025. The report suggests focusing on the sector's future allocation value [2][4]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has issued a notice adjusting risk factors related to insurance companies' business, which is expected to enhance the certainty of ROE improvement and accelerate valuation recovery in the medium to long term [4][6]. - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as those with significant advantages in business models and market positions [4]. Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.3% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.0%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 5.9%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 10.6% [5][17]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 16,961.78 billion yuan, down 2.35% week-on-week, while the margin financing balance rose to 2.48 trillion yuan, up 0.48% [5][39]. Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The CBIRC has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to support the growth of patient capital and enhance service quality to the real economy [6][64]. - Companies such as Zhongtai Securities and New China Life have announced their respective stock issuance and dividend distribution plans for the first half of 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Chinese brokerage sector, is experiencing a strong rebound driven by positive stimuli, with leading firms like CITIC Securities showing significant price movements [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - CITIC Securities (06030.HK) has seen its stock price rise by 4.64%, currently trading at 28.4 HKD, indicating a potential short-term bullish sentiment [1]. - The stock is currently at a critical technical level, with mixed signals from various indicators suggesting a possible short-term rebound [1][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current price is slightly above the 10-day moving average (26.81 HKD) but faces resistance from the 30-day (28.43 HKD) and 60-day moving averages (28.88 HKD), indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not fully strengthened [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 26.2 HKD and 25.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 28.3 HKD and 29.4 HKD, providing important reference points for short-term trading [3]. Group 3: Derivative Instruments - Recent performance of related derivative products, such as the Societe Generale call option (16567) and Huatai call option (14122), has shown significant gains of 10% and 9% respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these instruments [3]. - The Huatai call option (14122) is recommended for investors seeking a balance of cost-effectiveness and stability, with a strike price of 28.33 HKD, close to the first resistance level [5]. - The Morgan Stanley call option (29174) offers high risk and potential reward, with a leverage of 43.36 times, suitable for professional investors looking for short-term speculative opportunities [6].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着"十五五"规划蓝图绘就，中国资本市场高质量发展的路线图进一步清晰。证监会主席吴清日前指 出，未来五年是全面深化资本市场改革、加快打造一流投行和投资机构的战略机遇期。政策信号明确之 下，多家头部券商密集发布展望报告，拆解规划带来的投资新范式。 聚焦金融行业自身的改革与成长机遇 中信证券研究表示，"十五五"期间，证券行业格局有望深度重塑，推动行业实现错位发展，10家引领行 业发展的综合性机构将逐步成型。投行业务、衍生品业务、期货业务和资产证券化业务的监管周期有望 逐步回暖，证券公司有望通过内生增长和并购重组实现自身的长足发展，资产配置、综合服务和国际化 能力有望成为行业分化的决定因素。建议关注冲击国际一流投行的龙头证券公司以及具备跻身头部梯队 潜力的中大型证券公司。 国泰海通金融团队指出，保险业、券商业、银行业在 "十五五" 期间的发展目标与预期明确，将实现规 模与质量协同提升。1）保险业预计规模与质量双升，2030 年保费收入或达 8 万亿元、行业总资产有望 突破 60 万亿元，更加突出保险服务实体经济的 "减震器" 与保障民生的 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of brokerage stocks in the A-share market is driven by regulatory support and an increase in new margin trading accounts, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 8, A-share brokerage stocks saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks like Industrial Securities and Northeast Securities, although the overall gains later moderated [1]. - The A-share market experienced a structural differentiation in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% amid market fluctuations [3][8]. Group 2: Regulatory Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to enhance classification supervision, optimize evaluation indicators for quality institutions, and expand capital space and leverage limits, which is expected to improve capital utilization efficiency [2]. Group 3: Margin Trading Data - In November, 140,731 new margin trading accounts were opened, reflecting an 8% increase from October, continuing a trend of mild growth in both margin and regular A-share accounts [4][5]. - As of the end of November, the total number of margin trading accounts reached 15.517348 million, with 96 securities firms operating 11,614 business outlets for margin trading [6][8]. Group 4: Margin Trading Balance - Despite the increase in new accounts, the margin trading balance decreased for the first time in six months, falling to 2.47355 trillion yuan, a decline of approximately 0.51% from October [8]. - The decline in margin trading balance is attributed to increased market volatility, leading investors to be more cautious and some to repay financing, resulting in a slight contraction [8]. Group 5: Investor Participation - As of December 4, the margin trading balance was reported at 2.483863 trillion yuan, with individual investors numbering approximately 7.8219 million and institutional investors at 50,600 [10]. - The average maintenance guarantee ratio for investors with margin trading liabilities was 270.95%, indicating that overall risk remains manageable [10].

就在周末，金融圈疯狂刷屏政策红包。 证监会吴清释放关键信号，优质券商杠杆上限放宽。 上周末，券商板块迎来了重磅的利好。 证监会主席吴清在参加中国证券业协会第八次会员大会时表示，对优质机构适当松绑，适度打开资本空 间与杠杆限制。 对中小券商、外资券商在分类评价、业务准入等方面探索实施差异化监管，对于少数问题券商要依法从 严监管，违法的从严惩治。 这是管理层激活资本市场的明确信号。 受此利好影响，港A两地券商板块集体爆发。 A股市场中，兴业证券涨停，东北证券涨5.2%，华泰证券、国泰海通涨超4%，华安证券、中信证券、国 信证券涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601377 | 兴业证券 | 7.92 | +0.72 | 10.00% | | 000686 | 东北证券 | 9.71 | +0.48 | 5.20% | | 601688 | 华泰证券 | 22.73 | +0.93 | 4.27% | | 601211 | 国泰海通 | 20.55 | +0.82 | 4.16% | | 606009 | ...