Summary of Conference Call on Chinese Banks Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese banking sector, particularly the performance and outlook of A/H-share listed banks, with a specific emphasis on China Merchants Bank (CMB) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - A/H-share listed bank stocks have recorded market-cap-weighted absolute returns of 12%/21% year-to-date, attributed to improving fundamentals rather than sector allocation demand [1]. - The stabilization of asset quality and a narrowing decline in Net Interest Margins (NIMs) are significant factors driving this performance [1]. NIM and Loan Demand - The decline in NIM has narrowed in 3Q25, with expectations for continued narrowing into 1H26 due to ongoing deposit re-pricing [5]. - The large state-owned enterprises (SOE) banks and CMB are expected to have a sustainable NIM recovery, providing greater potential for shareholder returns [2]. - Loan demand is anticipated to weaken due to the "anti-involution" trend in the industrial sector, which will slow corporate loan demand [5][18]. Investment Income - Investment income is likely to be a negative contributor to bank revenue in 3Q25, particularly affecting small and medium-sized banks (SMBs) [5][27]. - The average year-over-year growth of bond investment income for covered banks is forecasted to be -7% in 3Q25 [36]. Fee Income - Fee income is expected to improve despite weak consumer credit demand, driven by growth in sales of financial products through banking channels [39]. - The sustained decline in deposit costs is creating opportunities for growth in wealth management products, insurance, and funds [40]. Asset Quality - Overall asset quality in the Chinese banking industry has not shown significant deterioration, with banks increasing provisions to bolster risk-resistance reserves [45]. - The NPL (Non-Performing Loan) coverage ratio has been on an upward trend, indicating that provisions are greater than new NPLs [45]. Additional Important Insights - CMB is favored for investment with a 12-month target price of Rmb54.24/HK$52.98, representing potential upside of 31%/10% [2]. - The average NIM for covered banks is expected to stabilize at 1.32% in 2026, largely unchanged from previous forecasts [17]. - The average loan growth forecast for covered banks in 2025 and 2026 is 9%, adjusted down from previous estimates [24]. Conclusion - The Chinese banking sector is navigating challenges such as narrowing NIMs and weakening loan demand, but there are positive indicators in fee income growth and asset quality stability. CMB stands out as a strong investment opportunity amidst these dynamics.

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, with only four sectors experiencing gains, notably the banking and coal industries, which rose by 4.89% and 4.17% respectively [1][2] - The banking sector led the gains, while the electronic and media sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 7.14% and 6.27% respectively [1][2] Industry Performance - The banking sector saw a net inflow of 24.19 billion yuan, with 41 out of 42 listed banks experiencing price increases. Key performers included Chongqing Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, which rose by 14.19%, 12.50%, and 12.17% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, the electronic industry faced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling 700.79 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with a net outflow of 416.92 billion yuan [1][2] Fund Flow Analysis - Overall, the main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 301.75 billion yuan this week, with only two sectors seeing net inflows: banking and coal [1][2] - The banking sector had 16 stocks with net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 24.72 billion yuan, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank with inflows of 12.81 billion yuan and 3.94 billion yuan respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of banks discontinuing certain functions of telephone banking is part of a broader digital transformation strategy aimed at enhancing security, reducing operational costs, and adapting to changing customer behaviors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Announcements - Zhejiang Commercial Bank announced it will discontinue personal deposit transaction services via telephone banking on November 14, 2025, including various types of fund transfers [1]. - Other banks, such as Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Agricultural Bank, have also phased out various telephone banking functions in recent years, including fund transfers and loan services [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The shift away from telephone banking is driven by the increasing prevalence of digital channels like mobile banking, which are seen as more secure and efficient for managing financial transactions [3]. - According to the "2024 China Digital Banking Survey Report," the usage rate of telephone banking has decreased to 25%, down 3% year-on-year, while mobile banking usage has risen to 88%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Lian Technology has announced the redemption of cash management products using temporarily idle raised funds, with a total investment of 1.1 billion yuan approved for cash management activities [1] Group 1: Cash Management Activities - The board of directors approved the use of up to 1.1 billion yuan of temporarily idle raised funds for cash management, effective for 12 months from the approval date [1] - The redeemed product was a structured deposit purchased from Bank of China, with a subscription amount of 37.23 million yuan, an annualized yield of 0.60%, and a total return of 25,700 yuan [1] Group 2: Deposit and Investment Details - The company has engaged in various cash management products, including agreements with Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, with varying annualized yields and maturity dates [2][3] - Specific structured deposits include amounts ranging from 1.6 million yuan to 8.39 million yuan, with expected annualized yields between 0.59% and 2.79% [2][3]

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is seen as a safe haven amid rising market uncertainties, with high dividend yield assets becoming increasingly attractive [1][41] - The securities sector is benefiting from a surge in trading volumes and increased stamp duty revenues, indicating strong performance in upcoming quarterly reports [1][43] - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth in investment income and new business value, driven by increased equity market exposure and favorable policy support [1][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the banking index increased by 5.53%, the securities index decreased by 0.57%, and the insurance index rose by 6.27%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48% [11] - Among the sub-sectors, Chongqing Bank (+15.90%), GF Securities (+8.98%), and New China Life Insurance (+12.21%) showed the best performance [11] Valuation Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.73, with state-owned banks at 0.79, joint-stock banks at 0.62, city commercial banks at 0.73, and rural commercial banks at 0.65 [22] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.59, indicating potential for valuation recovery [24] - Insurance companies' price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios are as follows: New China Life (0.74), China Pacific Insurance (0.59), Ping An (0.69), and China Life (0.72) [25] Recent Market Indicators - As of October 16, 2025, the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, and the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) are 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [29] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is 22,359.31 billion, showing a decrease of 13.57% [33] - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [41] Company Announcements - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [45] - Shanghai Bank announced a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan per share, totaling 4.263 billion yuan [41]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 董事會會議召開日期 招商銀行股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於2025年10月 29日（星期三）舉行董事會會議，藉以審議及批准刊發本公司截至2025年9月30日 止之第三季度業績公告。 招商銀行股份有限公司董事會 2025年10月17日 於本公告日期，本公司的執行董事為王良及鍾德勝；本公司的股東董事（非執行 董事）為繆建民、石岱、孫雲飛、朱立偉及黃堅；及本公司的獨立非執行董事為 李孟剛、劉俏、田宏啟、李朝鮮、史永東及李健。 招商銀行股份有限公司 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO., LTD. （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （H股股票代碼：03968) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, suggesting that several banks are undervalued based on their asset quality and excess provisioning metrics [4][3]. Core Insights - The valuation premium of banks typically arises from their middle-income and liability advantages, while valuation discounts are often due to concerns over asset quality [2][10]. - The report introduces two key indicators: "broad non-performing asset ratio" and "excess provisioning profit multiple" to objectively assess and compare the current asset quality status of banks [2][10]. - A total of 56 AH-listed banks are analyzed, expanding from the previous report's focus on 42 A-share listed banks, to provide a comprehensive overview of excess provisioning levels and trends [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Significance of Asset Quality - The report emphasizes the importance of objectively assessing asset quality, as it significantly impacts bank valuations and performance [10]. 2. How to Objectively Assess Bank Non-Performing Assets - Traditional asset quality indicators may not accurately reflect the true provisioning situation due to inconsistent standards and incomplete coverage of assets [14]. - The report proposes a "broad non-performing asset ratio" to better capture the credit risk within banks [14][15]. 3. Construction of Excess Provisioning Profit Multiple Indicator - The excess provisioning profit multiple is constructed to measure the performance elasticity of banks, indicating their potential for future earnings recovery [7][14]. - The report highlights that banks with higher excess provisioning ratios, such as Hangzhou Bank, show strong risk mitigation capabilities [7][14]. 4. Valuation from the Perspective of Broad Excess Provisioning - The long-term correlation between bank valuation levels and ROE is noted, with excess provisioning contributing to performance and valuation improvements [3][4]. - Several banks, including Wuxi Bank and Agricultural Bank (H), are identified as being significantly above the PB-excess provisioning profit multiple regression line, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) has announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on October 29, 2025, to review and approve the release of the company's third-quarter performance announcement for the period ending September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for October 29, 2025 [1] - The purpose of the meeting is to review and approve the third-quarter performance announcement [1] - The performance announcement will cover the period ending September 30, 2025 [1]

证券之星消息，10月17日股份制银行板块较上一交易日下跌0.8%，兴业银行领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3839.76，下跌1.95%。深证成指报收于12688.94，下跌3.04%。股份制银行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600000 | 浦发银行 | 13.32 | 0.00% | 81.69万 | 10.84亿 | | 601916 | 浙商银行 | 3.07 | -0.32% | 222.90万 | 6.87亿 | | 866109 | 中信银行 | 7.79 | -0.64% | 86.03万 | 6.73亿 | | 600015 | 华夏银行 | 6.80 | -0.73% | 103.17万 | 7.06亿 | | 600036 | 招商银行 | 41.59 | -0.81% | 82.98万 | 34.71亿 | | 601818 | 光大银行 | 3.43 | -1.15% | 375.57万 | 13.00亿 | | 000001 | 平安 ...

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 招商銀行股份有限公司 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO., LTD. （H股股票代碼：03968) 董事會會議召開日期 招商銀行股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於2025年10月 29日（星期三）舉行董事會會議，藉以審議及批准刊發本公司截至2025年9月30日 止之第三季度業績公告。 招商銀行股份有限公司董事會 2025年10月17日 於本公告日期，本公司的執行董事為王良及鍾德勝；本公司的股東董事（非執行 董事）為繆建民、石岱、孫雲飛、朱立偉及黃堅；及本公司的獨立非執行董事為 李孟剛、劉俏、田宏啟、李朝鮮、史永東及李健。 ...