Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced significant revenue and profit growth year-on-year. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 27, Northern Rare Earth's stock price is 50.67 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.169 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.77%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 183.175 billion CNY [1] - The stock has increased by 9.87% year-to-date, with a 2.12% rise over the last five trading days, a 9.89% increase over the last 20 days, and a slight decline of 0.28% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Rare Earth achieved a revenue of 30.292 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.541 billion CNY, which is a substantial increase of 280.27% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 20, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth is 608,100, a decrease of 8.85% from the previous period, with an average of 5,944 circulating shares per shareholder, which has increased by 9.71% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 5.358 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 994 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable changes in holdings, such as Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reducing its stake by 58.33 million shares [3]

截至1月26日，市场融资余额合计2.71万亿元，较前一交易日增加18.81亿元，其中，沪市融资余额 13667.99亿元，较前一交易日增加13.82亿元；深市融资余额13323.04亿元，较前一交易日增加5.73亿 元；北交所融资余额89.19亿元，较前一交易日减少7343.29万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，1月26日共有1936只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以 上的有707只，其中53只融资净买入额超亿元。中国平安融资净买入额居首，当日净买入4.44亿元，其 次是北方稀土、中国铝业，融资净买入金额分别为4.17亿元、4.16亿元，融资净买入金额居前的还有西 部矿业、迈为股份、东方财富等。 | 代码 | 简称 | 1月26日涨跌幅 | 融资净买入额 | 最新融资余额 | 占流通市值比例 | 所属行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （万元） | （万元） | （%） | 业 | | 601318 | 中国平 | 0.38 | 44408.15 | 3316709.51 | 4.85 | 非银金 | | | ...

Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 27,254.40 billion yuan on January 26, increasing by 19.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin transactions on the same day was 3,114.07 billion yuan, an increase of 79.37 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.48% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries, 17 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with a net inflow of 3.235 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included electric power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [3] Group 3 - A total of 53 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Ping An leading at a net inflow of 444 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows included Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Western Mining, Maiwei Co., Oriental Fortune, Luoyang Molybdenum, Heng Rui Medicine, TBEA, and Industrial Bank [3][4]

A股1月26日共有3764只个股获融资资金买入，有706股买入金额超亿元。其中，航天电子、紫金矿业、 特变电工融资买入金额排名前三，分别获买入24.34亿元、20.14亿元、19.91亿元。从融资买入额占当日 总成交金额比重来看，台华新材、朗鸿科技、中创股份融资买入额占成交额比重排名前三，分别为 26.84%、26.28%、26.13%。从融资净买入金额来看，有53只个股获融资净买入超亿元。其中，中国平 安、北方稀土、中国铝业融资净买入金额排名前三，分别获净买入4.44亿元、4.17亿元、4.16亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The small metals sector experienced a significant increase of 5.23% on January 26, with Zhangyuan Tungsten leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the small metals sector showed notable price increases, with Zhangyuan Tungsten rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 23.07 [1] Group 2 - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.367 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.181 billion yuan [2] - The trading volume for Zhangyuan Tungsten was 934,000 shares, with a transaction value of 2.098 billion yuan [1] - North Rare Earth had a net inflow of 726 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% on January 26, with 10 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals, which rose by 4.57% and 3.18% respectively [1] - The defense and military industry and the automotive industry saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.47% and 2.31% respectively [1] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 114.32 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with six industries seeing net inflows [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry increased by 4.57%, despite a net outflow of 2.85 billion yuan in main funds [2] - Out of 138 stocks in this sector, 92 rose, with 22 hitting the daily limit, while 46 fell, including 1 hitting the lower limit [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Northern Rare Earth (8.12 billion yuan), Luoyang Molybdenum (5.34 billion yuan), and China Tungsten High-Tech (3.65 billion yuan) [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Fund Inflow - The top stocks by fund inflow included: - Northern Rare Earth: +2.50%, turnover rate 5.09%, main fund flow 81.18 million yuan - Luoyang Molybdenum: +8.35%, turnover rate 2.71%, main fund flow 53.39 million yuan - China Tungsten High-Tech: +10.01%, turnover rate 6.90%, main fund flow 36.52 million yuan [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Fund Outflow - The top stocks by fund outflow included: - Silver Industry: -10.03%, turnover rate 8.50%, main fund flow -1397.23 million yuan - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: -10.06%, turnover rate 10.02%, main fund flow -857.32 million yuan - Zijin Mining: -5.17%, turnover rate 3.22%, main fund flow -626.08 million yuan [3]

Summary of China Rare Earths 2026 Outlook Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths - **Key Players**: Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (NRE), China Rare Earth Resources and Technology (CRE), JL Mag Rare-Earth Core Insights - **Supply Discipline**: China's rare earth supply discipline has transitioned to a structural level due to the extension of smelting and separation quotas to imported ores starting in 2025, reducing supply elasticity across the system. SMM anticipates a ~10% year-over-year growth in China's supply for 2026E [2][3] - **Imports**: US-origin rare earth ore imports have dropped to nearly zero since August 2025, following MP Materials' export suspension to China. This supply gap has been compensated by increased imports from Africa, while Myanmar's supply share is expected to decline due to rising tax uncertainty and political risks [3] - **Exports**: SMM forecasts approximately 9% year-over-year growth in exports for 2026E [4] Recycling and Demand - **Recycling**: Recycling has become a significant marginal supplier, with recycled PrNd accounting for ~25% of total PrNd supply in 2025, projected to rise to ~35% in 2026 due to planned capacity additions [4] - **Demand Growth**: SMM expects magnet demand to grow by 15-18% year-over-year in 2026E, driven by the adoption of NEVs (20% production growth), wind power (10% installation growth), air conditioners (11% production growth), and industrial robotics (8-10% growth). Humanoid robots are still in early stages, contributing less than 3% to total demand [5] Pricing Outlook - **Pricing Expectations**: SMM anticipates a slightly tight balance in 2026E, with potential short-term price spikes reaching ~Rmb700k/t. HREE pricing is more influenced by policy than supply dynamics [8] Company Valuations - **Northern Rare Earth (NRE)**: Valued at Rmb72 using a P/B-based methodology, reflecting a 9.5x target 2026E P/B, which is a +2.0 standard deviation premium to its historical average. The valuation considers structural demand growth and tighter resource control [9] - **China Rare Earth (CRE)**: Valued at Rmb61.6 with a 12x target 2026E P/B, set at +1.5 standard deviations above its historical average, reflecting similar structural factors as NRE [11] - **JL Mag Rare-Earth**: Valued at Rmb32.6 for JL Mag-A and HK$25.3 for JL Mag-H based on 2027E earnings, applying lower P/E multiples to account for potential downside risks in the robotics sector [14][16] Risks - **Key Risks for NRE and CRE**: Include demand growth uncertainty in downstream applications, unexpected capacity expansions outside China, trade barriers, price volatility, policy adjustments in China, emergence of alternative materials, and sector consolidation activities [10][12] Conclusion The rare earth sector is poised for growth driven by structural changes in supply discipline, increasing demand from various industries, and a significant role of recycling. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market volatility as they position themselves for the future.

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF (512400) is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the sector due to various macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the colored metal ETF (512400) increased by 4.62%, with a trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.8% [1]. - The index tracking the colored metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, saw notable gains in individual stocks, including silver rising by 10.03%, Hunan Gold by 10.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin by 9.99% [1]. - The colored metal sector has attracted significant investment, with over 36 billion yuan net inflow into colored metal-themed ETFs (excluding gold) this year, bringing the total scale to over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - On January 26, spot gold prices surpassed $5,080 per ounce, marking a new high with an intraday increase of over 2%, while spot silver rose over 3% to reach $106.83 per ounce [2]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices may increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, instability in the US dollar, midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium indicates a potential bull market for colored metals, with ongoing valuation adjustments lagging behind commodity price increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - Fund companies and investors are increasingly focusing on the colored metal sector, with public funds significantly increasing their positions in this industry by the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - Current market narratives driving global asset performance include the weakening of the US dollar credit cycle, the formation of a new monetary system anchored by gold pricing, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains [3]. - The colored metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, which comprises 50 listed companies in the colored metal and non-metal materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of this industry [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]