小金属供给收紧筑底，AI 金属需求高增空间广 -小金属及新材料行业2026年度投资策略（有色板块成长篇） 西部证券研发中心 2025年12月18日 证券研究报告 分析师 |刘博 S0800523090001 邮箱地址：liubo@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师 |滕朱军 S0800523110001 邮箱地址：tengzhujun@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师 |李柔璇 S0800524100003 邮箱地址：lirouxuan@research.xbmail.com.cn CONTENTS 目 录 CONTENTS 目 录 稀土：稀土周期还未结束，26年继续看好稀土板块上涨 钨：供需错配，26年价格有望持续上涨 锑：供给格局偏脆弱，2026 年锑价或迎向上突破 01 02 03 小金属25年总结：小金属涨幅大幅领先市场 锡：供给端扰动，锡价25年底加速上涨 04 05 06 金属新材料梳理：永磁材料、高端铜合金 核心结论 【核心结论】 【投资建议】总体来看，随着AI产业的需求崛起，小金属板块有望迎来新机遇。稀土板块推荐北方稀土、正海磁 材、金力永磁，关注中国稀土 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in A-shares has shown a significant upward trend, with the sector index closing up by 0.79% on December 10, driven by notable price increases in various small metal varieties, particularly tungsten [2][3]. Price Movements - Tungsten prices have surged, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) priced at 363,000 yuan/ton, up 153.85% year-to-date; ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 535,000 yuan/ton, up 153.55%; and tungsten powder at 880 yuan/kg, up 178.48%, all reaching historical highs [3][5]. - Other small metals like cobalt and tin have also seen significant price increases, with cobalt averaging 408,000 yuan/ton (up 16.91% since October) and tin futures rising 15.74% since October [3][5]. Factors Driving Price Increases - The price increases are attributed to supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising downstream demand. Supply-side constraints include strict mining quotas and environmental regulations for tungsten, and slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar [5]. - Macroeconomic factors include strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically weakens the dollar and supports commodity prices [5]. - Downstream demand is driven by growth in industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and military applications, enhancing the outlook for strategic small metals [5]. Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen substantial capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion yuan on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [7]. - Notable companies like Western Materials received a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, benefiting from their core supply roles in aerospace and marine engineering [7]. Company Performance - The small metals sector's overall performance has improved, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 41.42% [8]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported significant profit growth, with increases of 748.07% and 280.27% respectively [8]. Capacity Expansion - Shenghe Resources has disclosed plans for capacity expansion, with its subsidiary's high-performance rare earth polishing powder project progressing as scheduled, expected to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in the A-share market has shown a significant upward trend, driven by multiple factors including supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and increasing downstream demand [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - The small metals sector has experienced notable price increases, particularly in tungsten, which has reached historical highs. As of December 10, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 363,000 yuan/ton, up 153.85% year-to-date; ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 535,000 yuan/ton, up 153.55%; and tungsten powder is at 880 yuan/kg, up 178.48% [3][5]. - Other metals such as cobalt and tin have also seen significant price increases, with cobalt averaging 408,000 yuan/ton (up 16.91% since October) and tin rising 13.89% over the same period [3][5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The price increases are attributed to supply-side constraints, such as strict mining quotas and environmental regulations affecting tungsten, and ongoing export restrictions on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically weakens the dollar and supports commodity prices [5]. - Downstream demand from industries like new energy, semiconductors, and defense is rapidly growing, boosting expectations for strategic small metals [5]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen significant capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion yuan on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [6]. - Notably, Western Materials received a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, with its stock achieving a strong performance in recent trading sessions [6]. - Financing net purchases in the small metals sector reached 1.879 billion yuan in December, with several stocks, including China Uranium Industry, receiving substantial net purchases [6]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The small metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.42% [7]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported significant profit increases of 748.07% and 280.27%, respectively [7]. - Shenghe Resources is expanding its production capacity, with a project expected to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shenghe Resources stated that as of November 30, 2025, the number of shareholders will reach 224,115 [2] Summary by Categories - **Company Information** - Shenghe Resources has communicated to investors that the expected number of shareholders by the end of November 2025 is 224,115 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company positions itself as a responsible international supplier of key raw materials, focusing on rare earths while also considering zirconium, titanium, and rare and precious scattered resources [2] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company emphasizes a dual market approach, integrating foreign advantageous resources with domestic advantageous industries [2] - Future plans include accelerating the development and utilization of key overseas resource projects [2] - The company aims to transition into a resource-holding listed company [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenghe Resources (600392) confirmed that the company is operating normally and has not experienced any significant changes, indicating that there is no undisclosed information that should be made public [1] Group 1 - The company is maintaining its regular production and business operations [1] - There are no major changes in the company's status [1] - The company has no undisclosed information that is required to be disclosed [1]

证券代码：600392 证券简称：盛和资源 公告编号：临 2025-064 盛和资源控股股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性、完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称：盛和锆钛（海南）有限公司（以下简称"盛和锆钛"）为盛和 资源下属全资子公司。 本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额：2025 年 11 月，公司在 2024 年年 度股东大会批准的担保额度范围内为盛和锆钛提供的融资担保金额为 8,750.00 万元。 截止 2025 年 11 月 30 日，公司及下属控股子公司为盛和锆钛提供融资担保余额为 28,750.00 万元。 一、担保情况概述 公司第八届董事会第二十次会议及 2024 年年度股东大会先后审议通过了《关于 2025 年度预计担保额度的议案》，根据公司及下属控股子公司 2025 年度生产经营和对 外投资计划的融资需求，同意公司为合并范围内控股子公司提供不超过 450,000 万元 （含之前数）的担保额度，用于办理包括但不限于长、短期贷款、票据、信用证、保 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Group 1 - The rare metal concept stocks have weakened, with companies like China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources dropping over 3%, and Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, Salt Lake Industry, and Ganfeng Lithium falling over 2% [1] - The Rare Metal ETF has also declined by more than 2% [1] - Analysts believe that the limited reserves of strategic minor metals, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, combined with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, are exacerbating supply-demand conflicts [2] Group 2 - The scarcity of resources is becoming increasingly prominent, and with the upgrading of demand structure and policy regulation, rare metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2] - Companies with resource reserve advantages, technical barriers, and compliant export channels are likely to benefit continuously [2]