Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) with a target price of RMB 1,440 00 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved its 2024 targets with an estimated operating revenue of RMB 173 8 billion (+15 4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 7 billion (+14 7% YoY) [3] - The company announced a "three-year dividend plan" with a payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and a mid-year dividend of RMB 23 882 per share (totaling over RMB 30 billion) [5] - A share buyback plan of RMB 3-6 billion was announced to enhance investor confidence [5] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 23, 74 46, and 81 19 for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 1X, 19 3X, and 17 7X [5] Business Performance - In 2024, Moutai liquor revenue reached RMB 145 8 billion (+15 2% YoY), while series liquor revenue grew to RMB 24 6 billion (+19 2% YoY) [8] - Q4 2024 saw a slowdown in series liquor revenue growth to 3 4%, while Moutai liquor maintained double-digit growth at 13 6% [8] - The company produced 56 3k tons of Moutai base liquor (-1 6% YoY) and 48 1k tons of series liquor base liquor (+12 0% YoY) in 2024 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "three transformations" (customer base, consumption scenarios, and service) to adapt to market changes [8] - For 2025, Moutai plans to slightly increase domestic market allocation of Moutai liquor, reduce the allocation of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai, and increase the allocation of 1000ml bottles to stabilize prices [8] - The company aims to build three RMB 10 billion business units for series liquor: Moutai 1935, Moutai Prince, and Han Sauce [8] Financial Projections - Operating revenue is projected to grow to RMB 187 6 billion (+10 0% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 207 0 billion (+10 3% YoY) in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 93 5 billion (+9 1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 102 0 billion (+9 0% YoY) in 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow to RMB 127 1 billion in 2025 and RMB 138 9 billion in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of 1440 CNY [7] Core Views - The company held its 2025 distributor conference, emphasizing growth driven by volume increases [1] - The company aims to achieve a growth rate for its series liquor products that is not lower than the average growth rate of the top five listed companies [2] - The company plans to focus on three major product lines: **Moutai 1935**, **Prince**, and **Hanjiang**, aiming to create three 10-billion CNY business units [3] - The company will continue to optimize its product matrix and enhance brand value, with a focus on transitioning its customer base to target "new business" groups [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 1735 billion CNY, 1890 billion CNY, and 2047 billion CNY respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 858 billion CNY, 935 billion CNY, and 1013 billion CNY respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 21X, 19X, and 18X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Product Strategy - The company will focus on building a product cluster around **Moutai 1935**, aiming to develop it into a core product line [3] - **Prince** liquor will be developed into the second 10-billion CNY product within two years, with a focus on high-end and low-alcohol variants [3] - The company plans to reduce the market supply of **Hanjiang (Jiangxin Chuan)** in 2025 [3] Channel Strategy - The company will continue to develop a matrix-style channel strategy, with plans to expand its sales team to support a 20-billion CNY sales scale [3] - The company will adjust the product structure of its self-operated and social channels to ensure market stability [3] Market Activities - The company plans to increase market activity spending to approximately 675 million CNY in 2025, an 83% year-on-year increase [4] - New products, including the **Yisi Snake Year Zodiac Wine** and **Shengle Feitian Moutai**, will be launched on January 5, 2025 [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue in 2023 was 15056033 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1804% [6] - EBITDA for 2023 was 10396614 million CNY, with a projected growth to 11835591 million CNY in 2024 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 7473407 million CNY, with a projected growth to 8581185 million CNY in 2024 [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the **Food & Beverage/Alcohol II** industry [7] - The company's A-share market capitalization is 180892483 million CNY, with a total share capital of 125620 million shares [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [4] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 173 8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15 44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 85 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14 67% [1] - The company successfully met its annual revenue growth target of 15% in 2024, with Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increasing by 15 17% and 19 24% respectively [2] - The company is actively transforming to address industry challenges, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and supply-demand balance, with plans to increase the投放量 of Moutai liquor in 2025 and refine the product structure [3] Financial Performance - Estimated Q4 2024 revenue was 506 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 248 7 billion yuan, up 13 8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 49 08%, an increase of 0 77 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company produced approximately 5 63 million tons of Moutai liquor base liquor in 2024, a decrease of 1 58% compared to 2023, while series liquor base liquor production increased by 12 0% to 4 81 million tons [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on挖掘新消费需求 and transforming its customer base, particularly targeting the "new business" demographic [3] - Moutai plans to adjust the投放结构 of aged and珍品 Moutai products, with large规格飞天茅台 and文创 products expected to contribute to增量 [3] - The series liquor strategy revolves around Moutai 1935 as the core product, supported by Moutai王子酒 and汉酱酒, with increased market费用投入 and营销队伍 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report slightly下调 the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 856 7/944 9/1041 2 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 0 8%/2 1%/3 1% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22/20/18 times for 2024-2026 [4] - The company has announced a cash dividend ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026, with an interim dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024 and a share回购计划 of 3-6 billion yuan [4] Market Data - The total market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai is approximately 1 869 trillion yuan, with a total share capital of 1 256 billion shares [6] - The stock's one-year low/high range is 1 226 65/1 880 59 yuan, with a three-month turnover rate of 19 51% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [1][7] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved 15% revenue growth in 2024, meeting its annual target [1] - The company's 2025 operational goals are described as rational and pragmatic [1] - Moutai is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, leveraging its diversified distribution channels and rapid growth of series liquor [4] Financial Performance 2024 Performance - Estimated total revenue of 173 8 billion yuan (+15 44% YoY) [1] - Estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 7 billion yuan (+14 67% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 revenue of 506 77 billion yuan (+12 01% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 net profit of 248 72 billion yuan (+13 79% YoY) [1] Product Breakdown - Moutai liquor revenue: 145 8 billion yuan (+15 18% YoY) [2] - Series liquor revenue: 24 6 billion yuan (+19 24% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 Moutai liquor revenue: 446 74 billion yuan (+13 62% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 series liquor revenue: 52 07 billion yuan (+3 40% YoY) [2] Production - 2024 Moutai base liquor production: 56 300 tons (-1 58% YoY) [2] - 2024 series liquor base production: 48 100 tons (+12 02% YoY) [2] 2025 Outlook - Domestic market allocation for Moutai liquor to increase slightly [3] - 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai allocation to decrease, with increased focus on other specifications and cultural products [3] - Series liquor sales growth target: ≥14-15% [3] - Moutai 1935 to remain core product, with Moutai Prince and Hanjiang as key supporting products [3] - Moutai Prince aiming for 10 billion yuan revenue within 2 years [3] Financial Projections Revenue - 2025E: 187 75 billion yuan (+8 0% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 201 72 billion yuan (+7 4% YoY) [4] Net Profit - 2025E: 92 45 billion yuan (+7 9% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 100 34 billion yuan (+8 5% YoY) [4] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE: 21 8x [4] - 2025E PE: 20 2x [4] Shareholder Returns - 2024-2026 dividend payout ratio: ≥75% [4] - Mid-term cash dividend: 30 billion yuan [4] - Share buyback: 3-6 billion yuan [4] - 2025 dividend yield: 3 44% [4] Industry Context - The baijiu industry remains in a demand consolidation phase [4] - Industry-wide slowdown is becoming consensus [4] - Domestic demand expected to gradually recover with policy support in 2025 [4]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|白酒Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 2024 圆满收官，经营韧性显现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请注意，符蓉并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:业 | 2024-10-27 | | 绩符合预期，稳步实现增长 | | | 目标 | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:营 | 2024-08-09 | | 收略超预期，三年分红提信 | | | 心 | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:营 | 2024-04-28 | | 收开门红，销售投入谋长远 | | | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收 ...

| 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | | --- | | 买入（维持） | | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024Q1-3 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 123,123 | 173,782 | 190,395 | 205,563 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.0 | 16.9 | 15.4 | 9.6 | 8.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 60,828 | 85,744 | 94,728 | 102,542 | | 同比增长率（%） | 19.2 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 59.49 | 48.42 | 68.26 | 75.41 | 81.63 | | 毛利率（%） | 92.0 | 91.5 | 92.3 | 92.4 | 92.4 | | ROE（%） | 34.7 | 25.6 | 36.1 | 35.3 | 34.2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519) [8] Core Views - Profitability: Structural adjustments driving net profit margin [5] - Investment recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating [5] - Expected steady growth in 2025, with single-digit revenue growth for Moutai liquor and double-digit growth for series liquor [5] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026: 1739.2/1877.6/2000.7 billion yuan, with net profit of 857.7/924.5/981.5 billion yuan [5] - Current PE ratios: 22/20/19 times for 2024-2026 [5] Financial Performance - 24Q4: Expected revenue of 507 billion yuan (+12.01%), net profit of 249 billion yuan (+13.79%) [7] - 2024: Expected revenue of 1738 billion yuan (+15.44%), net profit of 857 billion yuan (+14.67%) [7] - Moutai liquor revenue grew by 13.6% in 24Q4, accounting for 89.6% of total revenue [7] - Series liquor revenue grew by 3.4% in 24Q4, with Moutai 1935 as a key driver [7] - Full-year 2024: Moutai liquor revenue grew by 15.18%, series liquor by 19.24% [7] - Net profit margin in 24Q4 increased by 0.8pct to 49.1%, while full-year margin decreased by 0.3pct to 49.3% [7] Product Strategy - Moutai liquor: Increased non-standard product offerings, reduced production of base liquor by over 900 tons to maintain brand value [7] - Series liquor: Focus on Moutai 1935, Prince, and Hanjiang, with expected volume growth through new product launches [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue: 1739.2/1877.6/2000.7 billion yuan, with net profit of 857.7/924.5/981.5 billion yuan [5] - Revenue growth rates: +15.5%/+8.0%/+6.6% for 2024-2026 [5] - Net profit growth rates: +14.8%/+7.8%/+6.2% for 2024-2026 [5] - ROE: 34.7%/33.2%/30.4%/27.8% for 2023-2026 [10] - EPS: 59.49/68.28/73.59/78.13 yuan for 2023-2026 [10] Valuation Metrics - PE ratios: 29.01/21.60/20.04/18.88 for 2023-2026 [10] - PB ratios: 10.05/7.17/6.09/5.24 for 2023-2026 [10] - EV/EBITDA: 20.22/14.43/13.07/12.06 for 2023-2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 15.44%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.67% [3][4] - In 2024, the company produced approximately 56,300 tons of Maotai base liquor, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and approximately 48,100 tons of series liquor, a year-on-year increase of 12.12% [4] - The company is focusing on "supply-demand adaptation" in 2025, aiming to balance product and channel structures, target new markets (such as catering and international markets), and enhance consumer reach and conversion [5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1737.84 billion yuan in 2024 to 2065.99 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.43%, 8.05%, and 10.03% respectively [5][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 857.02 billion yuan in 2024 to 1024.51 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.68%, 7.71%, and 10.99% respectively [5][8] - EPS is projected to be 68.22 yuan, 73.48 yuan, and 81.56 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [5][8] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of approximately 507 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 12.01%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.79% [4] - Maotai liquor revenue in Q4 2024 is expected to be approximately 447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.61%, while series liquor revenue is expected to be approximately 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 3.40% [4] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - ROE is projected to be 36.4%, 36.0%, and 36.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [12] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to be 19.9%, 19.4%, and 19.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [12]

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved its annual operating targets with revenue and net profit increasing by approximately 15.4% and 14.7% YoY respectively in 2024 [2] - The company completed its first share repurchase of 201,000 shares at an average price of 1,492.9 yuan, totaling 300 million yuan [2] - The company's 2024 production of Maotai base liquor was approximately 56,300 tons, and series liquor base liquor was approximately 48,100 tons [2] - The company's 2024 mid-term dividend of 30 billion yuan has been distributed, and the current dividend yield (TTM) is 3.7%, which is attractive to long-term investors [7] Financial Performance - Expected 2024 revenue and net profit are 173.8 billion yuan and 85.7 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth of 15.4% and 14.7% [2] - Q4 2024 revenue and profit are estimated at 50.68 billion yuan and 24.87 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 12% and 13.8% [2] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 68.51 yuan, 76.10 yuan, and 84.49 yuan, respectively [7] - The target price is set at 2,600 yuan, with the current price at 1,488.00 yuan [3] Product and Channel Strategy - Maotai liquor sales in Q4 increased by 13.6%, driven by increased sales of kilogram Maotai, while the 500ml Feitian Maotai maintained stable pricing [7] - Series liquor sales in Q4 grew by 3.4%, with a slowdown due to high base effects from the previous year and price stabilization measures [7] - The company has established three business units for Maotai 1935, Maotai Prince, and Hanjiang, aiming to stabilize brand image and achieve growth [7] Market Confidence and Shareholder Returns - The company's share repurchase and dividend distribution demonstrate its commitment to shareholder returns and market confidence [7] - The company's current dividend yield (TTM) of 3.7% is higher than the 10-year government bond yield, making it attractive to long-term investors [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on stable and sustainable growth in 2025, with a clear strategy for product and channel adjustments [7] - The company aims to increase the sales of multi-specification Feitian Maotai and develop designated scenarios and cultural Maotai products [7]