Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a structural adjustment characterized by a decline in production and a shift towards value competition, with a focus on consumer-centric strategies [3][5][8] - The rise of female consumers is reshaping the liquor market, with brands increasingly targeting this demographic through product innovation and marketing strategies [6][11] - The industry is witnessing a transformation from traditional consumption patterns to more diverse and experiential consumption scenarios, particularly during key periods like the Spring Festival [3][9] Industry Trends - The white liquor sector is experiencing a superficial prosperity that masks underlying issues such as reduced volume, lower prices, and shrinking profits, indicating a need for companies to adapt to changing consumer demands [3][5] - The past decade has seen a significant decline in liquor production, with white liquor down 74% and beer stabilizing at 35 million kiloliters, leading to a focus on brand value and cultural expression [5][8] - The emergence of new consumer segments, including younger and female consumers, is driving demand for lower-alcohol and health-oriented products, prompting brands to innovate [8][11] Market Dynamics - The Spring Festival of 2026 is marked by a late start in sales, a restructuring of consumption scenarios, and a cautious approach from distributors regarding inventory management [3][5] - High-end liquor prices are fluctuating, with brands like Moutai experiencing price increases due to strong demand, while mid-range and regional brands face inventory pressures [3][6] - The competition is intensifying as companies shift from a focus on volume to enhancing product quality and optimizing distribution channels [8][9] Brand Developments - Major brands are leveraging celebrity endorsements and cultural narratives to connect with younger consumers and enhance brand positioning [11][15] - Companies like Guizhou Dukang are expanding their national presence through cultural initiatives and product diversification, aiming to capture market share in high-potential regions [22][24] - The report highlights the importance of emotional marketing and cultural resonance in driving consumer engagement and brand loyalty [18][26]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival period are expected to decline by 8%, which is better than previous pessimistic forecasts, with varying performance across different consumption categories [1]. Group 1: Consumption Environment - The Spring Festival sales have fully commenced, with an overall expected decline of 8% in liquor sales during this period [1]. - Gift consumption (mass premium) is expected to see slight growth, while business consumption is projected to decline by 20% [1]. - Residential consumption is expected to remain flat with slight growth, and government consumption is anticipated to drop by 90% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: The return of funds for the March flying Moutai is not fully completed, with zero inventory and low channel stocking willingness, focusing more on turnover rates. The post-holiday price is expected to stabilize at 1550 yuan [1]. - **Wuliangye**: Current shipments are up by 30% year-on-year, with sales performance showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The current return progress for Guojiao 1573 is at 35%, with approximately three months of inventory. However, both shipment and sales are down by over 30% and 25% respectively, despite stable pricing [1]. - **Honghua Lang**: Currently, sales are up by 9% year-on-year [2]. - **Jian Nan Chun**: Sales are flat year-on-year [2]. - **Shede and Shui Jing Fang**: Both brands have seen slight declines despite low base comparisons [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the HuShen 300 Growth ETF managed by Huaxia Fund Management, which has seen a return of 31.56% since its inception on September 5, 2023 [1] - As of the midday close on February 12, the HuShen 300 Growth ETF (159523) increased by 0.76%, reaching a price of 1.324 yuan with a trading volume of 4.6693 million yuan [1] - The top holdings of the ETF include companies such as CATL, which rose by 2.57%, and Gree Moutai, which fell by 1.42%, indicating mixed performance among its key stocks [1] Group 2 - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Select 300 Growth Innovation Strategy Index, which reflects its investment strategy [1] - The fund manager is Zhao Zongting, indicating a specific leadership in the management of the ETF [1] - The ETF has shown a monthly return of 1.97%, suggesting a stable short-term performance [1]

Group 1 - The main stocks with significant capital outflows include Xinyi Technology (-8.52 billion), Zhongji Xuchuang (-7.46 billion), and Shenghong Technology (-7.05 billion) [1] - Other notable stocks with capital outflows are Light Media (-6.74 billion), China Duty Free Group (-5.71 billion), and Zhongwen Online (-5.64 billion) [1] - Guizhou Moutai experienced a capital outflow of -5.61 billion, while Aerospace Electronics saw -5.46 billion [1] Group 2 - The stock performance shows that Xinyi Technology had a decline of -0.31%, and Zhongji Xuchuang decreased by -0.17% [2] - Light Media faced a significant drop of -10.8%, while Zhongwen Online fell by -6.91% [2] - Guizhou Moutai's stock decreased by -1.42%, and Aerospace Electronics dropped by -2.33% [2] Group 3 - Other companies with notable capital outflows include Agricultural Bank (-4.80 billion) and China Satellite (-4.79 billion) [3] - Industrial Fulian had a slight decline of -0.24%, while Xian Dao Intelligent saw a minimal change of -0.05% [3] - The overall trend indicates a significant capital outflow from various sectors, including telecommunications, media, and banking [1][2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the 180 Governance ETF (510010), which saw a slight increase of 0.27% to 1.845 yuan as of midday closing on February 12 [1] - The ETF's major holdings include Guizhou Moutai, which fell by 1.42%, China Ping An down by 1.04%, and China Merchants Bank down by 1.60%, while Zijin Mining rose by 1.70% [1] - The ETF is managed by China International Fund Management Co., with a performance benchmark of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Corporate Governance Index, achieving a return of 105.50% since its inception on September 25, 2009, and a return of 0.54% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - Sales performance before the Spring Festival is expected to decline but aligns with forecasts, with Moutai showing leading market conditions. The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, but confidence is gradually recovering as companies ease pressure on sales targets [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery rates. The inventory levels of distributors are lower than last year, but the days of inventory have not decreased significantly due to slower sales [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a projected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January. Wuliangye's sales are expected to remain stable, while other brands like Laojiao and Fenjiu are experiencing varying degrees of decline [3] - The demand for low-end products remains, but brands like Jiannanchun and Yanghe are seeing significant declines in sales, with some brands experiencing double-digit drops [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business dining consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining showing poor performance. However, there is a rebound in gift-giving consumption, and the demand for affordable genuine products is increasing, with the proportion of mass consumption rising to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall industry volume and price have not yet bottomed out, and close attention is needed on the recovery of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's sales and distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector dropping to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio has also decreased, indicating a stabilization in holdings among major liquor companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - The overall sales performance before the Spring Festival is experiencing a double-digit decline, which aligns with expectations. Demand is steadily increasing as the festival approaches, and companies are no longer under pressure, leading to a gradual clearance of burdens. Industry confidence still requires further recovery [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with manufacturers no longer enforcing strict sales targets. Channel pressures are being released, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery progress compared to last year [2] - The concentration effect among leading brands is evident, with premium liquor brands increasing their market share by trading price for volume. Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with traditional channels delivering monthly and minimal inventory. Sales are growing in double digits, and terminal stocking enthusiasm is rising, with an expected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [3] - Wuliangye's sales performance varies by region, with expected sales remaining stable or slightly increasing in areas like Sichuan and Anhui. However, other brands like Laojiao and Jiangxiaobai are experiencing significant declines [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business banquet consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining performing poorly. However, there is some recovery in gift-giving, and mass consumption is supported. Moutai's channels are stimulating mass demand, with the proportion of mass consumption increasing to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall volume and price in the industry have not yet bottomed out, necessitating close observation of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's bottom-line performance and improvements in distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector falling by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio for the liquor sector is only 1.0%, down from 1.2% in Q3 2025, approaching levels seen in Q3-Q4 2013 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the poor performance of liquor and consumer goods stocks, with significant declines in companies like Lianhua Holdings and Gujing Gongjiu, impacting the overall sector [1] - The wholesale price of Moutai liquor has increased, with the 2026 original box price rising by 25 yuan to 1715 yuan per bottle, while the 2025 original box price also saw a similar increase [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, suggesting a potential good entry point for investments, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.58 times, which is in the 9.2% percentile of the last decade [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect improvements in supply and demand relationships across various sub-sectors in 2026, with a clearer recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a potential bottoming out for traditional consumption sectors [3] - The food and beverage sector is seen as a crucial part of domestic demand, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand expected to positively impact the sector [3] - The food and beverage ETF is heavily weighted towards leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to these companies, including major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [3]

销量方面也呈现"供不应求"，大超市场预期。1-2月的配额，叠加上经销商自愿申请的首批3月配额，使 得目前茅台酒投放量已经超过全年规划的30%。 关注食品饮料ETF（515170.SH），被动跟踪细分食品指数、持仓透明、风格不漂移，细分食品指数重 仓一二线优质白酒龙头，龙头有品牌效应强、高价格带具备韧性且注重分红等特征，目前食品饮料ETF （515170.SH）持仓贵州茅台18%。场外基金投资者也可以逢低定投华夏食品饮料ETF联接基金C份额 （013126.OF）。 据今日酒价2月12日最新数据，2026年飞天茅台原箱最新报1715元/瓶，较上一日跳涨25元/瓶。随着春 节宴请旺季到来，飞天茅台最近两周批发价格在1600元～1760元间反复波动，企稳迹象显著。贵州茅台 股价则在连续拉涨后，于1500元/股附近维持震荡，节前市场成交清淡、资金情绪偏谨慎。 飞天茅台近期终端价格也稳步攀升。据酒业内参，飞天茅台终端价格成交均价从1月30日的1665元，迅 速涨至2月初的1755元，而后虽有回落，但已多日稳定于1750元之上。截至今日，飞天茅台终端成交均 价为1757元，对比前一日上涨6元。 ...

此前飞天茅台高达3000多元仍一瓶难求，现在能以1499元的价格入手，让更多消费者有机会体验茅台品 质，这是市场热销的基础逻辑。加之年底高端白酒本身存在刚性需求，预计春节后茅台的市场热度仍将 延续。 春节临近，茅台市场热度持续攀升。 其中，i茅台App的火爆程度尤其引人注目，甚至一度因瞬时抢购人数过多而出现页面加载困难。这轮抢 购热潮的背后，黄牛的助推不容忽视。由于转手即可获利，不少黄牛采用自动抢购脚本、提前入场软件 等科技手段来抢茅台。此前i茅台发布公告回应称，29天拦截异常行为4.26亿次。 这种由代抢推波助澜的热销景象，不禁让人思考：这波热潮究竟是白酒行业真正回暖的"春天"信号，还 是市场分化中的一阵"倒春寒"？ 代抢变相稳价？ 尽管茅台官方持续加强管控，针对同一IP下单、同一地址和电话收货的8类异常订单，采取强制退款措 施，但由于平台售价与市场实际价格之间仍存在利润空间，代抢生意依然存在。 在这波代抢生意中，酒周志经调查发现主要存在两种操作模式：一类是依赖技术手段，通过机器人自动 上号，号称"百分百中签"；另一类则主打纯手工代抢，自称中率可达80%左右。在闲鱼、小红书等平台 上，代抢服务的报价大多集中 ...