Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the liquidity impact of index adjustments on individual stocks by calculating the ratio of net fund flows to the stock's recent average daily trading volume[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity impact coefficient for a stock is calculated as follows: $$ impact_{i} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \frac{\Delta weight_{k,i} \times AUM_{k}}{amt\_avg_{i,20}} $$ - \( \Delta weight_{k,i} \): Estimated weight change of stock \( i \) in index \( k \) - \( AUM_{k} \): Total assets under management of passive products tracking index \( k \) as of the end of November - \( amt\_avg_{i,20} \): Average daily trading volume of stock \( i \) over the past 20 trading days as of the end of November[12][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative framework to estimate short-term liquidity shocks caused by index adjustments, but it is subject to data discrepancies and assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual results[13] --- Model Backtesting Results Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Positive Impact Coefficients**: - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839 CH): 11.55[15] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750 CH): 11.44[15] - Tower Group (002233 CH): 11.04[15] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH): 10.14[15] - Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH): 9.99[15] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Negative Impact Coefficients**: - Shenzhen Expressway (600548 CH): -24.95[16] - Vanward Electric (002543 CH): -20.90[16] - Aviation Materials (688563 CH): -14.06[16] - Huaxi Biology (688363 CH): -10.81[16] - Ninghu Expressway (600377 CH): -10.54[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Net Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor estimates the net fund inflow or outflow for stocks due to index adjustments, based on changes in index weights and the total AUM of passive products tracking the index[9][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Outflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the stock's actual weight in the index as of the end of November - Inflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the estimated weight of the stock in the index post-adjustment - Weight estimation is based on free-float market capitalization and index-specific weighting rules, such as dividend yield weighting or market capitalization weighting[9][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a transparent and systematic approach to estimate fund flows, but it is sensitive to assumptions about future index weights and AUM changes[9][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results Net Fund Flow Factor - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Inflows**: - Victory Precision (300476 CH): 112.61 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision (002384 CH): 99.32 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology (002625 CH): 77.81 billion CNY[10] - Sugon Information (603019 CH): 65.44 billion CNY[10] - Top Group (601689 CH): 53.07 billion CNY[10] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Outflows**: - China Mobile (600941 CH): -40.02 billion CNY[11] - CRRC Corporation (601766 CH): -36.40 billion CNY[11] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600 CH): -34.29 billion CNY[11] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129 CH): -30.07 billion CNY[11] - Huagong Tech (000988 CH): -27.44 billion CNY[11]

证券代码：600566 证券简称：济川药业 公告编号：2025-098 公司于 2025 年 11 月 24 日召开了第十届董事会第十九次会议，审议通过了《关 于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金通过集 中竞价交易方式回购部分公司股份，用于实施员工持股计划或股权激励。本次回 购的资金总额不低于人民币 2,500 万元（含）且不超过人民币 5,000 万元（含）， 回购价格不超过人民币 38 元/股（含）。回购股份实施期限为自公司董事会审议通 过回购股份方案之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 11 月 25 日 在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）披露的《湖北济川药业股份有 限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的公告暨回购报告书》（公告编 号：2025-095）。 二、回购股份的进展情况 湖北济川药业股份有限公司关于 以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露 ...

证券代码：600566 证券简称：济川药业 公告编号：2025-097 湖北济川药业股份有限公司 关于回购股份事项前十大股东和前十大无限售条件 股东持股情况的公告 注：持股比例为占公司 11 月 24 日总股本 921,387,060 股的比例。 二、2025 年 11 月 24 日前十大无限售条件股东持股信息 | 序 | 股东名称 | 持股数量(股） | 持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | | | （%）注 | 序号 股东名称 持股数量 (股） 持股比例（%） 注 1 江苏济川控股集团有限公司 416,757,360 45.23 2 西藏济川企业管理有限公司 100,000,000 10.85 3 曹龙祥 46,838,458 5.08 4 香港中央结算有限公司 20,728,001 2.25 5 荆州市古城国有投资有限责任公司 11,126,102 1.21 6 兴业证券股份有限公司 8,145,422 0.88 7 国元证券股份有限公司 5,526,100 0.60 8 中国农业银行股份有限公司－中证 500 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 5,497,243 0 ...

Company Overview - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (SH 600566) announced on December 1 that it has not implemented any share buybacks as of November 30, 2025 [1] - The current market capitalization of Jichuan Pharmaceutical is 24.9 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Jichuan Pharmaceutical is as follows: - Heat-clearing and detoxifying products account for 33.53% - Pediatric products account for 28.11% - Digestive products account for 14.41% - Other industries account for 9.94% - Respiratory products account for 8.13% [1]

格隆汇12月1日丨济川药业(600566.SH)公布，截至2025年11月30日，公司尚未实施股份回购。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, indicating a rebound and potential for further growth in the upcoming months [3][6]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is expected to see a rebound after previous adjustments, with significant catalysts anticipated in December and January. The results of the national medical insurance negotiations will be released in early December, which may impact the inclusion of domestic innovative drugs in the insurance catalog [3][14]. - The upcoming American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference from December 6-9 is highlighted as a key event, with multiple differentiated hematology products expected to present new data [3][4][42]. - The CXO sector shows a continuous upward trend, supported by the rapid growth of new orders and backlog, ensuring performance release in the next 1-2 years [4][53]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on dual/multi-target drugs for various cancers and chronic diseases, as well as opportunities in ADCs and small nucleic acid therapies [6][15]. - The report notes that the innovative drug financing data is showing marginal improvement, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [6][15]. Biologics - The report mentions positive preliminary results from the Phase II clinical trial of amycretin for Type 2 diabetes, suggesting continued monitoring of its clinical progress [4][46]. Medical Devices - The report highlights the emergence of innovative domestic medical devices, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize and improve as new products are approved [5]. Traditional Chinese Medicine & Pharmacies - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong brand power and good inventory management, such as China Resources Sanjiu and Jichuan Pharmaceutical, due to rising flu incidence [5]. Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare - The report discusses a collaboration between a traditional Chinese medicine group and a local health bureau to enhance the capabilities of grassroots medical services through technology [5]. Key Investment Targets - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical, and others in the innovative drug and medical device sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The flu season in China has begun, leading to an increase in demand for antiviral medications, which has positively impacted the stock prices of flu-related companies [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The flu activity level has significantly risen, with historical data indicating that the flu season typically starts in October to November, peaking around late December to early January [1] - E-commerce platforms report an increase in sales of antiviral medications for flu, reflecting heightened consumer demand [1] Group 2: Key Players and Supply Chain - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical holds a significant market share in the supply of Oseltamivir, a neuraminidase inhibitor, and has established a robust supply chain to ensure stable drug availability during peak flu seasons [2] - The company has comprehensive coverage across hospitals, chain pharmacies, and online platforms, maintaining sufficient inventory to meet market demands [2] Group 3: Antiviral Drug Developments - In the RNA polymerase inhibitor category, Marbofloxacin has gained traction due to its convenience as a single oral dose, marketed as "Xufuda" by Roche [3] - Roche has initiated local production of Xufuda in Shanghai to shorten supply chain times and enhance responsiveness to market needs [4] Group 4: Supply Assurance and New Entries - Roche has increased the supply of Xufuda to over three times that of the previous year, with contingency plans in place to respond quickly to sudden surges in flu cases [5] - Three new RNA polymerase inhibitors have been launched by domestic companies, including Qingfeng Pharmaceutical's Mabulosavir, which is similar to Roche's Xufuda, and is currently approved for adult treatment [5][6] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical's Angladiwe has been recognized as the world's first PB2 protein inhibitor for treating influenza A in adults, with a stable supply chain established for its distribution [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent launch of three domestic influenza innovative drugs in China, highlighting their effectiveness and market potential as flu activity rises across the country [1][2]. Group 1: Product Overview - Three domestic influenza innovative drugs have been approved for market: 1. Marzula Shave Tablets (Yisuda) by Jiangxi Kairui Pharmaceutical Co., a subsidiary of Qingfeng Pharmaceutical Group [1]. 2. Angladiwei Tablets (Anruiwei) by Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co., a subsidiary of Guangdong Zhongsheng Ruichuang Biotechnology Co. [1]. 3. Maxiluo Shave Tablets (Jike Shu) developed by Hubei Jichuan Pharmaceutical Co. in collaboration with Nanjing Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical Co. [1]. - These drugs have achieved breakthroughs in "one-time dosing" and effectiveness against flu viruses, particularly for adolescents [2]. Group 2: Efficacy and Clinical Trials - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's Jike Shu is a new generation targeted RNA polymerase PA inhibitor, requiring only one dose for treatment of uncomplicated influenza in healthy adults [2]. - Angladiwei is the world's first oral drug targeting the RNA polymerase PB2 for type A influenza, showing significant symptom relief and low resistance in clinical trials [2]. - Health元 Pharmaceutical's Marpashisave Capsules are positioned to outperform existing treatments for type B influenza and in pediatric patients, utilizing a novel mechanism to inhibit viral replication [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Readiness - Companies report sufficient supply and production capacity to meet the increasing demand during the winter-spring season [3]. - Angladiwei is available through public medical institutions, major pharmacy chains, and online platforms, ensuring a robust supply chain [3]. - Jike Shu has launched on the JD Health platform, with ongoing market promotion efforts [3]. Group 4: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that pharmaceutical companies should aim to be included in the dynamic adjustments of the national medical insurance catalog and enhance hospital channel coverage [4]. - As domestic influenza innovative drugs establish a stable supply system and gain positive reputations, they are expected to gradually increase their market share [4].

Core Insights - The flu season in China is currently on the rise, with significant increases in flu activity levels reported, particularly in southern and northern provinces [4][5] - The Chinese antiviral flu medication market is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 197.51% [1] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for domestic flu medications, with several new drugs expected to be approved and available for patients [1][8] Market Overview - The flu medication market in China is dominated by Oseltamivir, which holds over 80% market share, while new entrants like Baloxavir Marboxil are gaining traction due to better efficacy and convenience [2][8] - The market is projected to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [1] Drug Approval and Launches - Several new flu medications have been approved for market entry, including: - Masuravir Tablets by Qingfeng Pharmaceutical, approved in March 2025 - Baloxavir Marboxil Tablets by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, approved in May 2025 - Marseloxavir Tablets by Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical, approved in July 2025 [1][10] - The initial pricing for these new drugs is generally above 300 yuan, but prices have been reduced to compete in the market as the flu season approaches [10] Supply Chain and Demand Dynamics - There is a noted supply-demand imbalance during peak flu seasons, leading to shortages of key medications like Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil [7] - Companies like Roche and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical are implementing strategies to ensure stable supply and meet the increased demand during the flu season [7] Competitive Landscape - Foreign pharmaceutical companies like Roche maintain a stronghold in the high-end market due to their technological advantages and brand influence, while domestic companies leverage cost advantages and local market knowledge to compete in the mid to low-end segments [11] - Domestic firms are encouraged to enhance R&D investments and innovate to meet specific market needs, such as developing pediatric formulations and low-dose options for the elderly [11]

Group 1 - The flu season has led to a significant increase in demand for antiviral medications, with stocks related to flu treatment becoming active in the A-share market [1] - The National Disease Control Bureau reported a notable rise in flu activity, with the H3N2 subtype accounting for over 95% of cases, and an expectation for continued increases in flu cases [1] - Sales of antiviral drugs have surged, with oseltamivir sales increasing by 237% and baloxavir marboxil by 180% in Beijing over the past week [1] Group 2 - Kangyuan Pharmaceutical has established a diverse product portfolio in respiratory and infectious diseases, including products like Heat Toxicity Ning Injection, which is effective for viral infections [2] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical announced that its innovative drug, Jike Shou, has been approved for the treatment of influenza in healthy adults and is expected to be launched by July 2025 [2] - Hualan Biological has a production capacity of 100 million flu vaccine doses annually and has seen a significant increase in demand for flu vaccines, with 54 batches approved for release in 2025 [2] Group 3 - Everbright Securities noted the rising flu trend may increase public and market attention, leading to growth in demand for flu prevention and detection products [3] - Investment opportunities are suggested in flu vaccines, virus testing, cold medications, and specific antiviral drugs, as well as blood products for complex epidemic responses [3]