出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in product structure leading to a decline in gross margin, while management expenses are being optimized [5] - E-commerce channels have shown strong performance, with sales growth of 37% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6] - The company is focusing on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, which has resulted in a notable increase in revenue contribution from these areas [6] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with gross margin at 69% and net margin at 22%, both down year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 107% [5] Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 14.21% of total revenue, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, while traditional sales channels faced declines [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market was 4.94 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell by 33% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to recover as business scenarios improve, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to recover elasticity in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating for Shéde Jiǔyè [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 25% and 37% [3]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 69% and 22%, down by 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating net cash flow increased significantly, reaching 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107% [3]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q1 2025 was 1.234 billion and 208 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 28% and 13% year-on-year [4]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, with revenue of 205 million yuan, up 37% year-on-year, and its revenue share increased by 7 percentage points to 14.21% [4]. - The company has focused on developing its domestic market, particularly in Suining, resulting in a year-on-year revenue share increase of 7 percentage points to 34.23% [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak liquor consumption, but long-term prospects are positive as business scenarios are anticipated to recover, enhancing brand strength in the mid-to-high-end market [5]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 20, and 16 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5]. - The company is positioned as a resilient player in the mid-to-high-end market, with anticipated brand strength improvement post-economic recovery [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 69% and 22%, showing declines of 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company's operating cash flow significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 107% to 224 million yuan [5]. - Contract liabilities reached 206 million yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41 million yuan [5]. Sales Channel and Product Performance - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 37%, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q1 2025 was 1.234 billion and 208 million yuan, respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales experiencing a larger decline [6]. - The company has focused on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, resulting in a year-on-year revenue increase of 7 percentage points in provincial markets [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 20, and 16 times [7][10]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in business dining scenarios, which will enhance its performance in the next few years [7].

Group 1 - Shede Liquor Industry announced an adjustment to its 2024 cash dividend total, with a proposed cash dividend of 4.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 141.44 million yuan, which represents 40.91% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company has repurchased 41.94 million shares, with 29.55 thousand shares repurchased recently, leading to a reduction in the total number of shares eligible for profit distribution [1] - The adjustment reflects compliance with regulations and aims to protect the rights of minority shareholders, enhancing the company's image and investor relations [1] Group 2 - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association is soliciting opinions on the "Ecological Baijiu" group standard proposed by Anhui Yingjia Gongjiu Co., which aims to enhance brand image and product premium capabilities [2] - The initiative reflects a trend towards ecological brewing among liquor companies, potentially benefiting the white liquor sector through industry standardization and consumer awareness of ecological quality [2] - This move indicates the industry's proactive exploration of quality improvement and sustainable development, which may boost market confidence [2] Group 3 - Bairun Co. reported that its liquor business has started generating a small amount of revenue since Q1 2025, indicating a successful product structure optimization and maintaining high gross margins [3] - The development of the liquor business represents a new growth point for the company, enhancing its profitability and market competitiveness [3] - This diversification into the liquor sector may attract market attention towards structural opportunities in the consumer sector amid trends of consumption upgrading [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese consumer staples sector is generally positive, with multiple companies rated as "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, two experienced negative growth, and one remained flat. The sectors with single-digit growth include dairy, food and beverage, soft drinks, condiments, and frozen foods. The declining sectors are mass and below liquor and sub-high-end and above liquor, while the beer industry remained flat. Compared to the previous month, six industries showed improved growth rates, while two saw a deterioration. Overall demand has not significantly increased or decreased [10][34]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - **Sub-high-end and above liquor**: In April, revenue was 26.4 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 167 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year. Inventory levels increased as demand entered a low season [4][14]. - **Mass and below liquor**: Revenue in April was 15 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of negative growth. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 75.2 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [16]. Beer Industry - Revenue in April was 14 billion yuan, flat compared to the same period last year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 60.6 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. The industry is preparing for the upcoming sales season with low inventory levels [5][19]. Condiments - Revenue in April was 36.3 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 155.4 billion yuan, growing 1.3% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing weak sales due to external consumption pressures [21]. Dairy Products - Revenue in April was 33.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for January to April was 156 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. The industry showed positive growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [23]. Frozen Foods - Revenue in April was 6.7 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 43.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. The industry faces challenges due to lower consumer spending and increased competition [25]. Soft Drinks - Revenue in April was 50 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 235.6 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. The industry is entering its peak season with intensified competition [27]. Restaurant Sector - Revenue for listed restaurant companies in April was 13.4 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 57.1 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The sector is seeing recovery, particularly in tea and Western fast food segments [29].

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 现金分红总额：由 141,566,169.93 元（含税）调整为 141,439,101.06 元 （含税）。 本次调整原因：自舍得酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024 年 度利润分配方案披露之日起至本公告披露日期间，公司通过上海证券交易所交易 系统以集中竞价交易方式新增回购公司股份 295,509 股。截至本公告披露日，公 司回购库存股份数量为 4,194,299 股，上述股份不参与本次利润分配，因此公司 实际参与利润分配的股本总数由 329,223,651 股调整为 328,928,142 股。公司按 照维持每股分配比例不变的原则，对 2024 年度利润分配方案中的分配总额进行相 应调整。 公司分别于 2025 年 3 月 21 日、2025 年 4 月 29 日召开第十一届董事会第十二 次会议、2024 年年度股东大会审议通过了《公司 2024 年度利润分配方案》，公司 拟以实施权益分派股权登记日的总股本扣除公司回购库存股份为基数，按每 10 股 派 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the demand for liquor during the May Day holiday met expectations, with the overall performance under pressure. However, the liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out and improving, with major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performing steadily. Local liquor leaders such as Gujinggongjiu and Jianshiyuan are also showing strong momentum. The report highlights a trend of increasing competition, leading to higher expenditure by companies and a slower pace of price upgrades. The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks or increasing dividends [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Henan Shenglin's annual sales of Wuliangye series products exceeded 1 billion yuan - The Luzhou liquor industrial park held an economic analysis meeting - Ten liquor companies in Gansu received geographical indication protection [4][5]. Company News - Moutai plans to optimize its distributor assessment - Wuliangye's "He Mei Global Tour" has commenced - Fenjiu's revenue for 2024 is projected at 36.011 billion yuan [5][15]. Key Company Feedback - The report includes performance forecasts for several companies, with a focus on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For instance, Moutai's EPS is projected to be 75.23 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.56 [7][28]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector showed a decline of 1.5% over the past month, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 2.4% [1][2]. Liquor Sector Recommendations - The report recommends companies with valuation advantages such as Shuijingfang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiugui Liquor. For the entire year, it recommends Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Gujinggongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][6].