Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.28% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.32% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.28% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a rise of 0.32% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The infrastructure sector saw significant gains, with Dongfang Electric (600875) increasing by approximately 80% [1] - Huaxin Cement (600801) rose by over 70% [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.28% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.32% [1] - The construction materials and steel sectors showed significant gains, with Huaxin Cement surging over 70% and Chongqing Steel rising more than 23% [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of China Yajiang Group and the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project inject new growth momentum into the hydropower industry [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming for an annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The project is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the hydropower sector, with installed capacity projected between 60 to 70 million kilowatts [1] Group 2 - Central state-owned enterprises in the construction sector, particularly China Power Construction Corporation, are poised to benefit significantly from hydropower engineering projects [2] - China Power Construction Corporation is responsible for over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of the construction tasks for large and medium-sized hydropower stations in China, holding over 50% of the global market share in this area [2] - The demand for cement in Tibet is expected to rise, with a projected cement production of 13.1 million tons in 2024, primarily driven by six leading companies [2] Group 3 - The demand for explosives in Tibet is anticipated to increase due to the scale of the hydropower projects, with an estimated usage of approximately 139,300 tons of explosives for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream project [3] - Major players in the explosives market in Tibet include Gaozheng Minexplosion, Yipuli, and Guangdong Hongda, which hold significant market shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is significantly boosting the A-share infrastructure sector, leading to a surge in stock prices of related companies. Group 1: Market Reaction - The A-share infrastructure sector experienced a "limit-up" trend, with companies like Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (835174.BJ) hitting a 30% limit-up and others like Jikang Technology (830879.BJ) opening up by 24.29% [1][2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower concept index (886105.TI) surged by 12.52% at the opening [1][2] Group 2: Project Details - The Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, officially commenced on July 19 in Linzhi, Tibet [3][4] - The project involves the construction of five tiered power stations, primarily focusing on power transmission while also catering to local demand in Tibet [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Companies - Companies in the explosives sector, such as Gaozheng Mining Explosives and Yipuli, are expected to benefit from increased demand due to the project [4][5] - China Power Construction Corporation, as a leading player in hydropower, is projected to secure annual project contracts worth approximately 21.8 to 29.1 billion yuan from this project, which could represent 1.7% to 2.3% of its new contract value in 2024 [4][5] - The project is anticipated to create significant opportunities for companies involved in construction, tunneling equipment, and materials, including China Energy Engineering, Iron Construction Heavy Industry, and Tibet Tianlu [5][6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to achieve a total profit of 15-16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the same period last year. Several cement companies have announced significant profit increases, with Tianshan Co. and Jidong Cement reducing losses by 2.5 billion and 660 million yuan respectively. Other companies like Tapai, China Resources, and Wan Nian Qing have seen profit growth exceeding 80%, while Huaxin Cement's profit increased by 50-55% [2][18] - The substantial improvement in performance is attributed to several factors: 1) Major companies have enhanced their price stability awareness since Q4 last year, leading to a price increase of approximately 20 yuan/ton in the average cement price year-on-year; 2) Cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly; 3) The average coal price fell by about 200 yuan/ton year-on-year [2][18] - Short-term cement prices are still slightly declining due to seasonal factors, but the downward space is limited. Prices are expected to rise as demand enters the peak season in August. Current cement valuations are relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 0.7, which is at the 17th percentile over the past three years. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for the building materials industry, which is expected to catalyze further valuation recovery [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) fell by 0.02%. Notable stock performances included Lifan Shuke (+26.9%), Shiming Technology (+15%), and Hainan Ruize (+13.9%). The recommended stocks from the previous week showed mixed results, with China National Materials (+8.8%) and Huaxin Cement (+0.9%) performing well, while Sanhe Pile (-4.5%) and International Composite (-1.4%) declined [1][12] Recent Real Estate Fundamentals - In the week of July 4-10, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.3391 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.55% [14] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices continued to decline, with a drop of 1%. The price drop was mainly concentrated in East and Southwest China, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton. However, demand is expected to improve slightly with better weather conditions [16] - Glass: The domestic photovoltaic glass market remained stable, with prices holding steady. The average price of float glass increased slightly to 1211.96 yuan/ton, with production costs varying based on fuel types [17] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn showed a downward trend, with prices declining slightly. The overall demand remains weak, although there is some support from wind power orders [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed positive performance with major indices rising, driven by strong sectors such as hydropower, steel, and robotics, while financial sectors faced declines [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The hydropower sector experienced significant gains, with multiple stocks including China Power Construction and Tibet Tianlu hitting the daily limit [2]. - The steel sector also saw upward movement, with stocks like Xining Special Steel and Bayi Steel reaching the daily limit [1]. - The building materials and cement stocks continued their strong performance, with Huaxin Cement showing notable strength [1]. - The robotics sector was active, with stocks such as Jingxing Paper and Jinfat Technology hitting the daily limit [1]. - In contrast, the financial sector, including insurance and banking, faced declines, contributing to the overall market volatility [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the new growth sectors are crucial for breaking through key index levels, suggesting a focus on mainline logic rather than worrying about index fluctuations [4]. - Zhongyin Securities pointed out that overseas expansion remains a strong performance driver, with expectations of a sector-wide rally post mid-year reporting season [5]. - Dongfang Securities noted that the market's logic of relying on dividends will continue, with long-term funds supporting sectors like banking and insurance, while tech stocks serve as supplementary opportunities [6].

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