| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 143842 | 135910 | 146822 | 153021 | 171257 | | 同比（%） | (6.70) | (5.51) | 8.03 | 4.22 | 11.92 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7091 | 4493 | 5147 | 5896 | 6844 | | 同比（%） | 21.34 | (36.64) | 14.56 | 14.54 | 16.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.29 | 1.45 | 1.66 | 1.90 | 2.21 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.71 | 13.74 | 12.00 | 10.47 | 9.02 | [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩符合预期 ] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、安全经营风险，汇率波动。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·燃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.21 CNY, while the current price is 19.94 CNY [2][6][12]. Core Views - The company's platform trading gas and retail gas volumes are expected to grow steadily, with enhanced vertical integration and highlighted dividend value [3][12]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 135.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.49 billion CNY, down 36.6% year-on-year [5][12]. - The report emphasizes the expected strengthening of the company's upstream and downstream integration advantages following the proposed privatization of New Hope Energy, which is anticipated to enhance overall operational efficiency [12]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 143.84 billion CNY and a net profit of 7.09 billion CNY, with a projected decline in revenue for 2024 to 135.91 billion CNY and a significant drop in net profit to 4.49 billion CNY [5][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.45 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.28 CNY by 2027 [5][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 30.0% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2024, before gradually recovering to 21.5% by 2027 [5][13]. Operational Insights - The report highlights that in Q4 2024, the company's platform trading gas volume reached 1.51 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [12]. - Retail gas volume in Q4 2024 was 7.38 billion cubic meters, up 2.7% year-on-year, with notable growth in commercial and industrial sectors [12]. - The Zhoushan receiving station's throughput significantly improved in 2024, with a total unloading volume of 2.41 million tons, marking a 53.4% increase year-on-year [12].

公司拟私有化新奥能源，有助于A 股平台做大做强。新奥股份拟以新能香港作为要约人，以 1:2.9427 换 股比例发行H 股以及按照 24.50 港元/股支付现金付款，H 股股份及现金付款理论总价值约80 港元/股。 本次交易完成后，新奥能源将成为新能香港全资子公司。我们认为，公司私有化新奥能源后将进一步打 通天然气上下游，有助于上市公司持续经营及分红能力。 盈利预测与投资评级。我们预计公司2025~2027 年公司归母利润分别为52亿元、61 亿元、74 亿元， EPS 分别为1.68 元、1.97 元、2.39 元。参考可比公司估值水平，给予其2025 年12-13 倍PE，对应合理价 值区间为20.16-21.84 元，维持"优于大市"投资评级。 风险提示。项目建设进展不及预期；产品价格大幅波动；汇率大幅波动。 天然气销售业务：平台交易气销量同比增长。天然气平台交易气业务方面，2024 年，平台交易气销售 气量达 55.68 亿方，同比增长 10.3%，其中海外平台交易气销售气量达 21.67 亿方，国内平台交易气销 售气量达 34.01 亿方，主要覆盖浙江、广东、山东、重庆、江苏、河北等省份。天然气零售 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the privatization of Xin'ao Energy, which will enhance its operational capabilities and shareholder returns [8] - The company's natural gas sales volume increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 1.68, 1.97, and 2.39 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12-13 times for 2025 [8] Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 135.91 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.493 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36.6% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2024 to 17.3% by 2027 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 132.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 223.81 billion yuan by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 135.91 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.493 billion yuan, down 36.64% year-on-year [1][5] - The company plans to privatize Xin'ao Energy, which is expected to enhance its integrated supply chain capabilities and improve market competitiveness [5][6] - The company achieved a platform trading gas volume of 5.568 billion cubic meters in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [5][6] Financial Data and Valuation - The current stock price is 19.92 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 61.7 billion yuan [2] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is 19.1%, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 54.3% [2][9] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 4.505 billion, 4.923 billion, and 5.517 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 9.3%, and 12.0% [5][6] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue is projected to decline by 6% in 2024, followed by a slight recovery of 2% in 2025 [6][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 14% over the next few years [9] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 1.03 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.41% [5][6] - Future shareholder return plans include a commitment to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 50% of the annual core profit from 2026 to 2028 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company plans to privatize its Hong Kong subsidiary, which is expected to enhance EPS and strengthen upstream and downstream integration [5][6] - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 50% for the years 2026 to 2028 [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 135.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.49 billion yuan, down 36.64% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a core profit of 5.14 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.36% year-on-year, with a basic core earnings per share of 1.67 yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 37.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.43%, and a net profit of 1.00 billion yuan, down 74.87% year-on-year [2] Business Segment Performance - Retail gas sales showed steady growth, with total retail gas sales of 26.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, up 4.2% year-on-year [3] - Platform gas sales increased by 10.3% year-on-year, reaching 5.57 billion cubic meters in 2024 [4] - The company expanded its comprehensive energy projects, achieving a total sales volume of 41.57 billion kWh, a growth of 19.8% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to execute long-term contracts totaling 8.1 million tons from 2025 to 2029, supporting high growth in direct gas sales [8] - The company plans to increase its LNG receiving station capacity from 7.5 million tons per year to 10 million tons by 2025 [8] - The projected core net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.69 billion yuan, 6.34 billion yuan, and 7.04 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.84 yuan, 2.05 yuan, and 2.27 yuan [8][9]

证券研究报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 新奥股份 (600803.SH) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 拟私有化港股加强协同优势，26-28 年承诺至少 50%分红率 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 27 日 [Table_S 事件：3ummar 月 26y]日晚，公司发布 2024 年年度业绩公告，2024 年全 ...

上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 03 月 27 日 新奥股份 (600803) ——拟私有化新奥能源 开启 AH 两地上市新篇章 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 26 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | 19.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 22.64/17.15 | | | 市净率 | | 2.7 | | 息率（分红/股价） | | 4.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | | 55,808 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,368.70/10,643.82 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.58 | | 资产负债率% | 54.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,097/2,840 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 0 ...

新奥股份表示，本次交易将进一步强化公司"天然气产业链一体化协同"战略定位。新奥股份上游拥有国 内外多元化气源资源，可充分发挥天然气资源池优势和液化天然气（LNG）接收站储运能力，为新奥 能源应对下游客户需求变化提供有效支撑；同时新奥股份可将上游气源与新奥能源客户需求进行匹配， 进一步扩大资源池，提升舟山LNG接收站使用效率，形成"内外双循环"协同发展的增长模式。此 外，"A+H"跨境上市也能增强新奥股份整体抗风险能力和市场竞争力。 新奥股份在前述预案中提示，本次交易资金来源为公司自有及通过银行借款等合理方式自筹资金，若交 易现金对价全部使用银行贷款支付，交易完成后资产负债率预计将上升至67%，上市公司短期内的偿债 压力、利息支出将会增加；若使用部分自有资金支付，短期内对公司经营和投资活动亦将产生一定资金 压力。 另外，计划股东将获得新奥股份新发行的H股股份及新能香港作出的现金付款作为私有化对价，每股计 划股份可获得新奥股份新发行的2.9427股港股股份以及新能香港以现金方式按照24.5港元/股支付现金付 款。据新百利估算，每股计划股份约80港元，相较于新奥能源3月18日59.45港元/股收盘价溢价近35%。 ...

新奥股份2024年财报揭秘：扣非归母净利润大增 50.9%，彰显主业强劲内生动力 新奥股份（600803）2024年度经营发展呈现稳中求进态势，在能源结构转型与智能化升级双重驱动 下，公司以技术创新为引擎，持续深化清洁能源全产业链布局。年报显示，公司全年实现营业收入 1358.4亿元；经营现金流净额同比增长2.9%至141.62亿元，凸显企业稳健运营能力。值得注意的是，扣 除非经常性损益的归母净利润达37.1亿元，实现50.9%的显著增长，彰显主营业务内生动力持续增强。 在经营层面，公司紧抓国家"双碳"战略机遇，天然气主业形成多点突破。作为能源转型重要抓手， 天然气平台交易气量同比增长10.3%至55.68亿方，其中国际业务占比接近四成，构建起覆盖长三角、珠 三角等重点区域的立体化供应网络。零售端表现尤为亮眼，全国261个城市燃气项目带动零售气量攀升 至262亿方，工商业用户用气量占比突破78%，既印证了实体经济回暖态势，也反映出公司精准把握工 业能源需求升级趋势的专业能力。 2024 年新奥股份平台交易气销售气量/图源：新奥股份2024年年报 科技创新成为提质增效的核心支撑，"好气网"构建起覆盖全产业链的智 ...