Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [2][3][94]. Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu has significant growth potential as it transitions from a revenue scale of 100 billion to 300 billion, with a faster pace than other liquor companies. The company is expected to maintain its growth momentum without significant deceleration in the next two years [1][10][12]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms to enhance its organizational structure and channel management, which are crucial for product upgrades and sustainable growth [2][40][98]. - The growth strategy focuses on building a solid foundation in the surrounding Shanxi region while expanding into multiple price segments, with a particular emphasis on the Qinghua 20 and Laobai Fen products [2][61][64]. Summary by Sections Horizontal Comparison - Historical analysis shows that liquor companies typically face challenges after surpassing 300 billion in revenue. However, Shanxi Fenjiu's rapid growth and proactive reforms position it favorably compared to peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][12][18]. - The company has successfully crossed the 300 billion revenue threshold faster than competitors, indicating a robust growth foundation [1][13][19]. Organizational Reforms - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a comprehensive reform strategy, including the establishment of new departments to enhance high-end product cultivation and channel reforms [2][40][41]. - The "Fen Enjoy Benefits" program is a key tool for channel reform, focusing on tiered management of distributors and terminals to improve efficiency [2][46][48]. Growth Logic - The company is building a strong market presence in the surrounding Shanxi region and expanding its product offerings across various price segments. The Qinghua 20 product is positioned for significant growth, supported by its competitive pricing and brand strength [2][61][64]. - The report anticipates that the Qinghua 20 will drive revenue growth, enabling the company to reach the 500 billion revenue mark [1][11][64]. Valuation Analysis and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenue growth for Shanxi Fenjiu at 20.5% for 2024, with expected revenues of 384.7 billion, 454.1 billion, and 522.5 billion for 2024-2026 [2][80][81]. - The target price for the stock is set between 248.40 and 291.60 yuan, reflecting the company's growth potential and ongoing reforms [2][94][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [3] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to strengthen its mid-tier product offerings, particularly with the recent upgrades and price increases of its flagship products, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] - The company is positioned to outperform its peers in terms of growth speed and quality, with a focus on enhancing its overall competitive capabilities [2] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The recent dealer conference revealed the launch of upgraded products, including Qinghua 20 and upgraded Lao Bai Fenjiu, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series [2] - The strategic shift since 2022 focuses on enhancing the mid-tier segment while maintaining strong performance in the premium segment [2] Sales Performance - The company expects revenue growth for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series to exceed the overall company growth rate, particularly in the second quarter following the price adjustments [2] - Qinghua 20 continues to show strong sales momentum, with expectations for it to maintain a growth rate above the company average [2] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 130.8 billion, 155.2 billion, and 182.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.7, 12.7, and 15.0 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a solid foundation in its home market and is expanding its presence in surrounding provinces, with strong growth potential in southern markets like Jiangsu and Anhui [2] - The overall market share is expected to increase due to the company's brand and product advantages, alongside improved management and execution capabilities [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The new version of Lao Bai Fen has been fully upgraded, integrating the Qingshua 20 into a five-code system, which enhances channel and pricing management [2][3] - The company is undergoing continuous digital transformation, focusing on cultural, organizational, and competitive restructuring as core elements [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu is entering a high momentum development phase, with revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 expected to reach 38.47 billion, 45.17 billion, and 51.93 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 20.5%, 17.4%, and 15.0% respectively [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company held a dealer conference in Kunming, Yunnan, themed "Deeply Implementing the Fenjiu Revival Program and Promoting High-Quality Market Development" [2] Product Upgrades - The Lao Bai Fen series has seen its first upgrade in five years, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle, aimed at supporting the five-code system [3] Digital Transformation - The five-code system is designed to address market order issues such as channel diversion and price chaos, which is essential for the company's revenue growth into the 30 billion yuan era [4] Financial Forecasts - The expected net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 13.12 billion, 16.06 billion, and 18.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.7%, 22.4%, and 18.0% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has announced price increases for several key products, including the 10-year and 15-year Lao Bai Fen, effective June 20, with increases of 30 yuan per box, and the Panama 20-year product with an increase of 60 yuan per box [3][4]. - The Lao Bai Fen and Panama series are positioned as the company's mid-tier products, contributing significantly to its market share, which is close to 10 billion yuan [4]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 20% year-on-year for 2024, with the price adjustments and market strategy optimizations being crucial to achieving this goal [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 387.54 billion yuan, 464.79 billion yuan, and 554.08 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.4%, 19.9%, and 19.2% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 133.25 billion yuan, 167.15 billion yuan, and 205.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.7%, 25.4%, and 22.8% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.92 yuan, 13.70 yuan, and 16.83 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on upgrading its mid-tier products and is making steady progress in channel reform, which is expected to drive revenue growth [4][5] - The introduction of the upgraded Qinghua 20 product with a "five-in-one" system is anticipated to enhance channel management and consumer traceability, thereby improving sales efficiency [5] - Long-term earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.60, 13.01, and 15.94 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15 times [6] Summary by Sections Product Upgrades - The company announced price increases for several mid-tier products effective June 20, including a 60 yuan increase for the 42-degree Panama 20-year product and a 30 yuan increase for the 42/45-degree 10-year Fenjiu [4] - The upgrade of the Lao Bai Fen 10 product includes new packaging design and storytelling elements, which are expected to boost sales in the banquet market [4] Channel Management - The upgraded Qinghua 20 product features a new design and the "five-in-one" system, which includes an RFID chip for better channel management and consumer traceability [5] - The nationwide promotion of the new product is expected to enhance channel efficiency and improve price transmission after full market rollout [5] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 31.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.3% [8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.9% [8] - The report highlights a stable gross margin improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from 75.3% in 2023 to 78.0% in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) is "Accumulate" with a target price of 325.50, unchanged from the previous forecast [2]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the continuous strengthening of the mid-tier product layout and the enhancement of product line advantages. The sales growth of the Lao Bai Fen series has been relatively leading within the Fenjiu product line, driven by brand strength and alignment with consumer trends. The company has implemented price increases and increased promotional efforts for the Lao Bai Fen series, indicating its rising importance in the marketing system [7][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in seasonal expenses and the strengthening of channel capabilities. The digitalization of the channel system is nearing completion, allowing for better control over distribution channels and improved sales performance [8][10]. - The core logic behind the rise of Fenjiu is attributed to improved marketing efficiency driven by brand strength, with solid support from mid-tier products and the Qinghua 20 series. The company is expected to continue expanding in southern markets while enhancing organizational efficiency [8][10]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the revenue for 2022 was 26,214 million, with projections of 31,928 million for 2023, 39,014 million for 2024, 46,622 million for 2025, and 55,367 million for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 31.3% in 2022 and a projected 21.8% in 2023 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 8,096 million, with forecasts of 10,438 million for 2023, 13,472 million for 2024, 16,713 million for 2025, and 20,397 million for 2026, showing a significant growth trajectory [6]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 6.64 for 2022, increasing to 8.56 in 2023, and further to 11.04, 13.70, and 16.72 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][10].

Financial Performance and Key Indicators - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 31.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.438 billion yuan, up 28.93% year-on-year [1] - Total assets reached 44.096 billion yuan, growing by 20.18% [1] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were 8.56 yuan, an increase of 28.78% [1] - Cash dividends amounted to 4.37 yuan, accounting for 51.07% of the net profit [1] - In Q1 2024, operating revenue was 15.338 billion yuan, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 6.2 billion yuan, up 29.95% [1] Business Line Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 23.203 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 22.56% [1] - The number of distributors outside the province increased to 3,120, with revenue from these regions amounting to 19.660 billion yuan [1] Market Data and Key Indicators - The company plans to optimize its investment structure and innovate its marketing strategies to enhance brand communication across various media [1] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing the "11125 Fenjiu Technology Strategy" to enhance quality management and product quality [1] - In 2024, the company aims to accelerate technological upgrades and expand production capacity [1] - The company is focused on establishing a world-class value creation action plan and improving internal control systems [1] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of high-quality development and maintaining confidence in growth despite challenges [4] - The company aims to achieve a revenue growth of around 20% in 2024 [1] Other Important Information - The company is committed to sustainable profit distribution principles to ensure investor interests [2] - Plans to enhance talent recruitment and leverage talent advantages for future growth [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the basic logic and key directions for the company's development? - The company has established five basic logics for development, including building a scientific marketing system and enhancing product structure [3] Question: What plans and measures does the company have for quality management and brand strategy? - The company plans to focus on quality management and brand positioning, emphasizing quality production and technological upgrades [4] Question: What are the company's cultural and reform plans? - The company aims to strengthen cultural development and improve internal governance structures [4] Question: What are the company's goals and plans for 2024? - The company targets high-quality development and aims to enhance operational efficiency and product quality [4] Question: What is the company's strategic layout for future development stages? - The strategic layout is divided into two phases: 2022-2024 for transformation and management upgrades, and 2025-2030 for sustainable development [4] Question: How did the company perform in 2023 and Q1 2024? - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in both 2023 and Q1 2024 [5] Question: What is the company's approach to marketing expenses and management in 2024? - The company plans to optimize marketing expenses and focus on product quality and innovation [6] Question: What strategies does the company have for high-end liquor branding and market promotion? - The company is promoting its high-end product, Qinghua Fenjiu 30, and aims to strengthen its market position [6] Question: How does the company manage its independent directors? - Independent directors focus on financial audits and maintain communication with management to ensure compliance [6] Question: What are the company's strategies for channel management and expense allocation in different regions? - The company tailors its marketing strategies based on regional market conditions to enhance effectiveness [6] Question: What are the capital expenditure plans for construction and fixed assets? - Specific details on capital expenditure were not provided [7] Question: What is the company's approach to product structure and dividend policy? - The company plans to enhance competitiveness in the mid-range market and maintain a stable dividend policy [8] Question: How does the company view the performance and growth potential of Qinghua 20? - Qinghua 20 has shown strong growth potential in the mid-to-high-end market segment [8] Question: What are the core advantages and actions for the company's operations? - The core advantages include continuous growth and a focus on quality, brand, culture, and market strategies [9] Question: How does the company enhance management and marketing, and what breakthroughs are expected in quality and culture? - The company is leveraging digital partnerships to improve management efficiency and enhance marketing strategies [9] Question: What new initiatives are being taken in reform and talent management? - The company is focusing on systematic reforms and enhancing talent recruitment efforts [9]

Financial Performance and Key Indicators - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 31.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.438 billion yuan, up 28.93% year-on-year [1] - Total assets reached 44.096 billion yuan, growing by 20.18% [1] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were 8.56 yuan, an increase of 28.78% [1] - Cash dividends amounted to 4.37 yuan, representing 51.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - In Q1 2024, operating revenue was 15.338 billion yuan, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 6.2 billion yuan, up 29.95% [1] Business Line Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 23.203 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 22.56% [1] - The number of distributors outside the province increased to 3,120, with revenue from these regions amounting to 19.660 billion yuan [1] Market Data and Key Indicators - The company plans to optimize its investment structure and innovate its marketing strategies to enhance brand communication across all platforms in 2024 [1] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing the "11125 Fenjiu Technology Strategy" to enhance quality management and product quality [1] - In 2024, the company aims to accelerate technological upgrades and expand raw liquor production and storage capacity [1] - The company is focused on establishing a scientific marketing system and enhancing cultural marketing capabilities [3] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of high-quality development and maintaining confidence in growth despite challenges [4] - The strategic layout is divided into two phases: 2022-2024 for transformation and management upgrades, and 2025-2030 for sustainable development [4] Other Important Information - The company is committed to green and low-carbon development principles [1] - A stable and sustainable profit distribution policy is in place to protect investor interests [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the basic logic and key directions for the company's development? - The company has established five basic logics for development, including a scientific marketing system and enhancing cultural marketing capabilities [3] Question: What plans and measures does the company have for quality management and brand strategy? - The company plans to focus on quality management and brand positioning, emphasizing quality production and innovation [4] Question: What are the company's plans regarding culture and reform? - The company aims to strengthen cultural development and improve internal control systems [4] Question: What are the company's goals and plans for 2024? - The company aims for high-quality development and to enhance operational efficiency [4] Question: How does the company plan to manage capital expenditures and product structure? - The company will focus on production capacity and digitalization while enhancing competitiveness in the market [8] Question: What is the performance and growth potential of the Qinghua 20 product? - Qinghua 20 has shown strong growth potential in the mid-to-high-end market segment [8] Question: What are the core advantages and specific actions for the company's operations? - The core advantages include continuous growth and a focus on quality, brand, culture, and market [8] Question: How will the company enhance management and marketing? - The company is leveraging digital partnerships to improve management efficiency and marketing strategies [8] Question: What new initiatives are in place for reform and talent management? - The company is focusing on systematic reforms and enhancing talent recruitment efforts [9]

you you you you so so you you Dear investors, good afternoon. Welcome to the first quarter of the 2023 and 2024 Shaanxi Fenjiu performance briefing. Today, let's meet in Yongduang to interact with each other by video and text. Thank you for your support. Thank you for Shanzhen Luyan Center for providing us with the platform. Since April 26, 2024, after the first quarter of the year report and the first quarter of the year report in 2023, the company has communicated with investors in many ways, including ho ...

公司报告 | 公司深度研究 山西汾酒（600809） 证券研究报告 2024年 05月29日 清香龙头加速复兴，灵活布局彰显强α 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 清香鼻祖底蕴深厚，二次改革重焕生机。山西汾酒地处酒都杏花村，是 当前价格 245.38元 清香型白酒国家标准的制订者之一，90 年代之前曾有“汾老大”之称。 目标价格 300.16元 2017 年汾酒集团董事长李秋喜上台，开启二次改革，通过引入战投+整 合资产+推行组阁聘任制+实施股权激励创新公司体制机制，激发市场活 基本数据 力，2017-2023 期间营收/归母净利润 CAGR 分别为 32%/49%，受青花系 A股总股本(百万股) 1,219.96 列放量&产品结构上行，整体盈利能力持续提升。 流通A股股本(百万 1,219.96 产品矩阵梯度分明，动态调整灵活放量。公司在高端/次高端/中端/大众 股) 端分别具有强势大单品青花 30 复兴版/青花 20/老白汾巴拿马/玻汾，其 A股总市值(百万元) 299,354.82 中玻汾定位全国化先行军，起到培育消费者的作用，目前保持控量运 流通A股市值(百万 299,3 ...