公 司 报 告 2024年08月28日 食品饮料 山西汾酒(600809.SH) 淡季稳健发展，盈利略承压 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:175.74元 主要数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.fenjiu.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 山西杏花村汾酒集团有限责任公 | | | 司/56.59% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,220 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 1,220 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,144 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 2,144 | | 每股净资产(元) | 25.35 | | 资产负债率(%) | 39.6 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】山西汾酒（600809.SH）*年报点评*产 品结构升级，省外核心市场加速拓展*推荐20240426 【平安证券】山西汾酒（600809.SH）*季报点评*内 生动力充足 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 山西汾酒（600809） 2024 年中报点评：顺时而动，均衡发力 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26214 | 31928 | 38405 | 45051 | 52995 | | 同比（%） | 31.26 | 21.80 | 20.28 | 17.31 | 17.63 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 8096 | 10438 | 12932 | 15380 | 18231 | | 同比（%） | 52.36 | 28.93 | 23.89 | 18.93 | 18.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 6.64 | 8.56 | 10.60 | 12.61 | 14.94 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.75 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.41 billion RMB, up 24.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 7.41 billion RMB, reflecting a 17.1% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for the same period was 2.15 billion RMB, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about achieving its annual targets despite a slight decline in profit growth due to product mix issues and a decrease in gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For 2024, the company expects revenues to grow by 20.1%, with net profits projected to increase by 21.3% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 75.1%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a weaker product mix [2][3]. Product Performance - In Q2 2024, high-end and other liquor segments generated revenues of 4.57 billion RMB and 2.80 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 58.3% [2]. - The company anticipates continued growth in mid-range products and stable performance from its flagship series, with plans for market expansion in southern regions [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from domestic sales in Q2 2024 was 2.80 billion RMB, up 11.2% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province reached 4.57 billion RMB, a 21.8% increase [2]. - The company added 478 new distributors in Q2, bringing the total to 4,196 [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.66 billion RMB, 14.89 billion RMB, and 17.39 billion RMB, respectively [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 10.38 RMB, 12.21 RMB, and 14.25 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2024 reached ¥22,746,234,674.44, representing a 19.65% increase compared to ¥19,011,152,144.43 in the same period last year[13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was ¥8,409,892,313.64, up 24.27% from ¥6,767,230,471.13 year-on-year[13]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 52.28% to ¥7,930,094,411.97, compared to ¥5,207,689,862.05 in the previous year[13]. - Basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were ¥6.8936, a 24.08% increase from ¥5.5556 in the same period last year[14]. - The company reported a significant increase in cash received from sales of goods and services, totaling ¥21,595,087,989.57, which is a 21.96% increase from ¥17,706,539,027.57[27]. - The company achieved investment income of ¥4,992,192,626.97 in the first half of 2024, up from ¥3,977,108,539.69 in the same period of 2023, marking a growth of 25.49%[69]. - The total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was approximately 8.43 billion, a significant increase compared to the previous period[77]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company at the end of the reporting period were ¥51,975,584,928.23, reflecting a 17.87% increase from ¥44,095,837,995.19 at the end of the previous year[13]. - The total liabilities of the company reached CNY 20,599,255,875.91, compared to CNY 15,820,768,149.52, representing an increase of about 30.5%[62]. - The company's total equity attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 30,922,657,442.62, up from CNY 27,836,907,912.57, marking an increase of around 7.5%[62]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents reached CNY 13,409,312,958.31, compared to CNY 3,774,745,389.98 at the end of 2023, indicating a significant increase of about 254.5%[60]. - Total current liabilities increased to CNY 20,099,192,671.53 from CNY 15,146,667,046.24, reflecting a rise of approximately 32.3%[61]. Operational Efficiency and Strategy - The company maintains a comprehensive business model integrating research, production, supply, and sales, focusing on the production and sales of Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun series liquors[17]. - In the first half of 2024, the company signed strategic cooperation agreements with China Resources Group and Huawei to enhance digital transformation and operational efficiency[20]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and storage projects, with key projects accelerating construction to meet future demand[21]. - The company plans to invest a total of ¥910,181.50 million in the construction of the 2030 technical transformation project to enhance raw liquor production capacity, expected to yield an annual production of 51,000 tons of raw liquor[30]. - The company plans to focus on expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[85]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has implemented measures to ensure that wastewater is treated and reused, with over 1.76 million tons of reclaimed water used annually for environmental greening and public sanitation[43]. - The company has replaced all coal-fired boilers with natural gas boilers, significantly reducing pollution and achieving cleaner production[43]. - The company is committed to cultural heritage preservation and has received recognition as a "Chinese Time-honored Brand" for Zhuyeqing[23]. - The company has invested CNY 5.73 million in infrastructure improvements in rural areas, enhancing living conditions for local farmers[51]. - The company is focusing on sustainability initiatives, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2025[103]. Shareholder Information - Total number of common shareholders as of the end of the reporting period is 67,263[56]. - The largest shareholder, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu Group Co., Ltd., holds 690,429,865 shares, representing 56.59% of total shares[57]. - The top ten shareholders collectively hold significant stakes, with the first three shareholders accounting for over 70% of total shares[57]. - The company has not reported any changes in the controlling shareholder or actual controller[58]. - The company has not faced any administrative penalties related to environmental issues during the reporting period[48]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses rose by 36.42% to ¥55,105,855.95, compared to ¥40,394,284.97 in the same period last year[27]. - The company collaborates with research institutions to improve the quality standards of raw materials, enhancing the overall quality of Fenjiu[24]. - The company has initiated a talent strategy, recruiting and training over 120 apprentices to build a high-quality workforce[25]. - The company is investing in new technology development, allocating $50 million for R&D in AI and machine learning[103]. Financial Management - The company's financial expenses decreased to -¥2,008,867.31 from -¥2,426,394.86, indicating improved financial management[27]. - The company reported a decrease in sales expenses to ¥77,548,477.34 from ¥143,843,318.25 in the same period of 2023, a reduction of 46.00%[69]. - The company has not recognized any significant bad debt provisions for the current period[197]. - The company has not experienced any significant changes in the fair value of its financial instruments during the reporting period[193].

白酒 事件点评 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 买入-A(维持) 汾酒「巨匠」系列发布，注入全新的时代活力 2024 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 市场数据：2024 年 8 月 23 日 收盘价（元）： 177.78 年内最高/最低（元）： 273.68/173.20 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 12.20/12.20 流通 A 股市值（亿）： 2,168.85 总市值（亿）： 2,168.85 基础数据：2024 年 3 月 31 日 基本每股收益(元)： 5.13 摊薄每股收益(元)： 5.13 每股净资产(元)： 28.31 净资产收益率(%)： 18.14 和芳芳 执业登记编码：S0760519110004 邮箱：hefangfang@sxzq.com 事件描述 事件：8 月 21 日晚，汾酒全新「巨匠」系列，在山西杏花村汾酒博物馆 发布。 事件点评 文创酒发布提高汾酒品牌影响力。汾酒「巨匠」系列将传统工匠精神与 现代创新思维相融合，为汾酒品牌注入全新的时代活力。「巨匠」系列采用 独特的"活态三非遗工艺"，即酒、器、盒分别采用三种不同非遗工艺，包括： 非遗杏花村汾酒酿制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a strong start in Q1 2024 with a revenue growth of 20.94% and a net profit growth of 29.95%, indicating a positive sales momentum and healthy inventory levels [2] - The market share of Shanxi Fenjiu in the clear aroma segment has significantly increased, with expectations of further growth potential in the long term [2][8] - The company demonstrates strong resilience through its diverse product matrix, which allows it to navigate market fluctuations effectively [2][12] - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a model for potential "15% growth + 4% dividend" strategy, with a current P/E ratio below 18x and a potential for increased dividends [3][17] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million RMB in 2023 to 54,540 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.82% [1] - Net profit is expected to rise from 10,438 million RMB in 2023 to 19,825 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 22.30% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 RMB in 2023 to 16.25 RMB by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] - The P/E ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 17.60x in 2024, 14.38x in 2025, and 11.75x in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation [1] Market Position and Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu's market share in the clear aroma segment has grown from 16.1% in 2019 to 35.5% in 2023, showcasing its competitive strength [8][9] - The company has successfully expanded its presence in various provinces, with significant sales growth in regions like Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong [14] - The product mix, including high-end and mid-range offerings, enhances the company's ability to adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [12][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is recognized as a leading brand in the Chinese liquor industry, with a significant historical and cultural background. The company has shown remarkable growth, with a total market capitalization increase of 1233% from early 2016 to July 2024, making it the top performer among liquor companies [2][3] - The company has successfully navigated through market fluctuations and has demonstrated strong resilience and growth potential, referred to as "Fenjiu Speed" [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shanxi Fenjiu has a rich history of over 6000 years in liquor production, with its revenue surpassing 30 billion yuan in 2023, ranking fourth among liquor companies in terms of revenue [12][13] 2. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry has experienced a recovery since 2016, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products. The company has benefited from this trend, particularly in the mid-to-high-end and light bottle liquor segments [3][4] 3. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong brand heritage and cultural significance to expand its market presence. It has a strategic focus on key products like Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen, which cater to different price segments [4][5] - The geographical advantage of being a leading liquor brand in the Yellow River basin enhances its market position, especially in northern China [4][5] 4. Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its product offerings in the high-end market and enhance its presence in southern China, which is expected to contribute to future growth. The report forecasts revenue growth from 386.33 billion yuan in 2024 to 551.69 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 192.80 billion yuan by 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 350 CNY [5][21]. Core Views - The report addresses market concerns regarding the company's product structure and inventory performance, asserting that the impact on profit growth is limited due to a focus on mid-tier products and a normal repayment ratio of approximately 20% in Q2 [1][2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for the year, with a strong emphasis on maintaining channel profits and enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation initiatives [1][2]. - The product structure is seen as advantageous in the current demand environment, with a focus on high-end products and strategic adjustments to meet consumer trends [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10,438 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [3][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 10.71 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The company has experienced a 30% decline in stock price since May, attributed to industry-wide price drops and concerns over Q2 performance. However, the report suggests that the overall market conditions remain stable, with a healthy inventory level and consistent pricing across product lines [1][2]. - The company is actively working to improve channel communication and efficiency, anticipating a significant improvement in the third quarter [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Fenxiang Liuyu" channel reform is a key focus for the company, aimed at enhancing channel profitability and operational efficiency. The company plans to hold meetings with distributors to strengthen relationships and improve execution [1][2]. - The management is committed to a long-term strategy that prioritizes market health while gradually increasing market share, particularly in the southern regions [1][2].

证 券 研 究 报 告 山西汾酒（600809）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 回应分歧，景气延续 目标价：350 元 当前价：181.00 元 ❖ 事项：5 月以来公司股价回调逾 30%，一是行业层面茅台批价下跌，叠加部分 区域反馈二季度宴席场景高基数下表现偏淡，行业景气度回落预期转弱。二是 公司层面，市场对公司 Q2 产品结构、库存表现、汾享礼遇推进效果以及全年 业绩等方面存在分歧和疑虑，我们进行各方交流，核心观点如下： ❖ 分歧一：短期市场担心 Q2 产品结构下移影响利润增速，实际 Q2 更多是腰部 产品放量加强，对利润率影响有限。公司回应全年目标和结构策略不变，二季 度回款比例约 20%保持正常，结构上青花系列 Q1 节奏偏快增速约 35%+，其 中青 20 增速约 40%，二季度略放缓。玻汾则因一季度进度慢于全年，二季度 节奏加快，但腰部产品尤其是老白汾二季度增速更为明显（主要系公司 6 月对 腰部产品提价发力所致），评估对盈利水平影响不大。此外考虑二季度淡季扎 实做市场下费投略高于往年，上半年利润增速有望高于收入约 5%-10%。 ❖ 分歧二：中期市场担心汾享礼遇渠道改革推进磨合过程中会影响渠道利润和 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2024-017 联系地址：山西省汾阳市杏花村镇 因工作调整原因，王普向先生不再担任公司证券事务代表职务， 公司及公司董事会对王普向先生任职证券事务代表期间为公司所做 出的贡献表示衷心感谢。 公司于2024年7月15日召开第八届董事会第五十四次会议，审议 通过了《关于聘任公司证券事务代表的议案》，同意聘任张弛先生 （简历附后）担任公司证券事务代表，协助董事会秘书开展工作。 张弛先生已取得上海证券交易所颁发的董事会秘书任职资格证 书，具备担任证券事务代表所需的专业知识、工作经验和相关素养， 其任职资格符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《上海证券交易所股票 上市规则》等相关法律法规和规范性文件的规定。截至本公告披露 日，张弛先生未持有公司股份，与公司或控股股东及实际控制人不 存在关联关系，与公司其他董事、监事、高级管理人员不存在关联 关系，未受过中国证券监督管理委员会及其他相关部门的处罚或上 海证券交易所的惩戒。 证券事务代表联系方式如下： 电话：0358-7329809 电子邮箱：zhang.c@fenjiu.com.cn 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 关于变 ...