昨天晚上半开玩笑的说，拼多多的下跌可能是因为黄老板不愿意当首富，结果今天一开盘就看见农夫山泉暴跌12%，当时我忍不住感慨，这赛道也要竞争 了吗。 话说回来中国这些年的首富基本上都有点问题，早先的黄光裕坐过牢，许家印现在还在里面，王健林和马云各有各的麻烦，然后就是卖水的钟睒睒，莫名 其妙被网暴了半年。 这些人当首富的时候中国的经济还在繁荣上行，老百姓日子过的不错也就把富豪榜当个谈资。现在经济遭遇减速，老百姓生活压力明显上升，这个时候谁 还当出头鸟就很容易架起来烤，首富头衔纯粹烫手山芋，有百害而无一利。 以上是聊闲篇的，农夫山泉的暴跌当然不是钟老板故意砸的，而是前一晚公布的财报不理想，公司最最最最核心产品包装饮用水上半年下滑18%，而这个 产品在1、2月的时候还同比增长了19%，转折点发生在2月25日宗庆后去世，之后农夫山泉就陷入了漫长的网暴，饮用水的销售也遭遇了重大挫折。 首先是火了好几天的黑悟空概念，我游戏还没通关呢，相关概念股就已经凉了，华谊兄弟一个星期从2.96跌到1.96，浙报传媒五个交易日从10.5跌到7.8。 当时还有很多人说山西旅游会被带火，但是山西高速最近3个交易日从6.2跌到4.4。 前晚广泛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected stock performance to exceed the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue and net profit increasing by 19.65% and 24.27% year-on-year, respectively [4][5]. - The company is undergoing channel reforms amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, balancing reform progress with revenue and profit growth [8]. - The company is expected to focus on high-end products and improve product structure in the second half of 2024, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 227.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 84.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 76.69% [4][5]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 74.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.06% [4]. - The company's revenue from high-end liquor reached 164.27 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 17.38% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a 27.36% increase [5]. - The company’s cash flow from sales in H1 2024 was 215.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.96% increase year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026 at 19.05%, 15.79%, and 14.62%, respectively, with net profit growth of 24.13%, 16.65%, and 14.43% [8][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 10.62, 12.39, and 14.18 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [9][10].

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------------------------------------|--------------| | 2024 | 年08月28日 | 公司研究 | | 研究所：证券分析师： | 刘洁铭S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方S0350523120001qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | ——山西汾酒（ | 电商渠道加速扩张，渠道精细化程度不断加深。分渠道看，2024H1 代 理 / 电 商 分 别 实 现 营 收 210.13/15.18 亿 元 ， 同 比 分 别 +17.87%/+81.76%，电商渠道实现高质量快速发展。据公司财报， 在 618 全周期，京东、天猫、抖音、快手四个电商平台的汾酒官方 旗舰店均获得白酒品牌旗舰店销售排名第一，扩大了汾酒品牌在线 上平台的影响力。公司统筹做好管理提升、秩序维护、宴席推广、 圈层拓展、事件营销等工作，进一步完善汾享礼遇内涵、扩大覆盖 范围，实现不同渠道精细化管理。截至 2024Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][5] Core Views - In Q2 2024, the company's revenue grew by 17.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.2%. For the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 22.746 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year, and net profit was 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The decline in profit growth in Q2 is attributed to the company's proactive inventory control of the Qinghua series. The high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 4.567 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw revenue of 2.796 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.3% [4][5] - The company is expected to recover growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the Qinghua series, as it prepares for the peak sales seasons of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.408 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.147 billion yuan. The gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 75.1% [4][5] - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 22.746 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.410 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 24.3%, respectively [4][5] Market and Product Analysis - The company is focusing on deepening its national presence, with Q2 2024 revenue from Shanxi province at 2.797 billion yuan (up 11.2% year-on-year) and from outside Shanxi at 4.566 billion yuan (up 21.78% year-on-year) [4][5] - The number of distributors increased by 478 in Q2 2024, indicating a strengthening of the distribution network [4][5] Profitability and Forecast - The company maintains a stable expense ratio, with operating cash flow in Q2 2024 at 0.889 billion yuan, down 49.9% year-on-year. The expected revenue for 2024-2025 is projected at 38.463 billion yuan and 45.392 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5% and 18.0% [4][5][6] - The forecast for net profit in 2024-2025 is adjusted to 12.735 billion yuan and 15.331 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.0% and 20.4% [6][7]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|山西汾酒（600809） 2024 年半年报点评： 淡季调结构去库存，锚定全年目标推进 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 考虑到消费弱复苏，我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 383.38/441.40/507.75 亿 元，同比分别增长 20.08%/15.13%/15.03%，归母净利润分别为 129.32/150.12/174.16 亿元， 同比分别增长 23.89%/16.09%/16.02%，对应三年 CAGR 为 18.61%，对应 2024-2026 年 PE 估值 分别为 17/14/12X。鉴于公司品类与产品矩阵优势明显，全国化延续推进，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 山西汾酒(600809) 2024 年半年报点评： 淡季调结构去库存，锚定全年目标推进 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------ ...

2024 年 08 月 28 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 产品结构短期调整，上半年保持稳增 | | | —山西汾酒（600809.SH）公司事件点评报告 | | 买入(维持) | 事件 | | 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 | 2024 年 8 月 27 日，山西汾酒发布 2024 年中报。 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | 投资要点 | | 基本数据 | ▌利润不及预期，上半年整 ...

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食品饮料 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持）投资要点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布 24 年半年度报告，24H1 实现营业总收入 227.46 亿，同比增长 19.65%， | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|----------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 27 | | 收盘价（元） 一年内最高/最低（元） | 175.74 273.68/172.19 | | 市净率 | 6.3 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.49 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 214,397 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,848.73/8,103.76 | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | --- | |------------------| | 2024 年 06 月 30 | | 25.35 | | 39.63 | | 1,220/1,220 | | | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-2809-2810-2811-2812-2801-2802-2803-28 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" with a target price of 213 CNY, maintaining the current price of 175.74 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 22.75 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.41 billion CNY, up 24.3% [2]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 7.41 billion CNY, growing 17.1%, and a net profit of 2.15 billion CNY, increasing by 10.2% [2]. - The company maintains a strong revenue growth target of around 20% for the full year, despite some short-term fluctuations in Q2 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 increased by 0.4 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 37.0%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q2, the gross margin was 75.1%, down 2.7 percentage points, primarily due to increased volume of lower-margin products [2]. - The company reported a healthy cash flow with a net operating cash flow of 889 million CNY in Q2, despite a 49.9% decline compared to the previous quarter [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 38.70 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.2% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.02 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 24.7% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 10.67 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the high-end segment, with expectations of continued strong performance from its flagship products [2]. - The company plans to optimize its distribution channels and improve profitability through strategic pricing adjustments [2]. - The overall market environment remains supportive, with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and international markets [2].

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 27 日，公司披露 24 年半年报，期内实现营收 227.5 亿元，同比+19.6%；实现归母净利 84.1 亿元，同比+24.3%；单 Q2 实现营收 74.1 亿元，同比+17.1%；实现归母净利 21.5 亿元，同 比+10.2%，略低于市场预期。 经营分析 Q2 收入兑现符合预期、产品节奏扰动利润增速略低、全年目标兑 现预期仍较强 24Q2 归母净利率同比-1.8pct 至 29.0%，主要系期内毛利率同比 -2.7pct 至 75.1%、与单 Q2 产品结构走弱相关。24Q2 中高价位/ 其他酒分别实现营收 45.7/28.0 亿元，同比+1.5%/+58.3%，我们 认为与季度产品节奏相关，Q2 青花系列控货控节奏预计略承压， 腰部维持增长、玻汾环比提速。考虑 6 月青花 20 及腰部产品提价， 叠加腰部加速区域外拓进度，我们预计下半年仍会以腰部领先， 青花系列保持平稳，玻汾以长江以南等开拓市场增量投放为主。 分区域看，24Q2 延续 Q1 趋势，期内省内/省外分别实现营收 28.0/45.7 亿元，同比+11.2%/+21.8%，省外增速相对更优，Q2 净 增加 ...