环保公用-2026 年度策略：仓庚于飞，熠燿其羽 - 价值+ 成长共振，双碳驱动新生！20251216 摘要 欧洲碳关税和国内非电可再生能源考核强化双碳驱动，垃圾处理费 C 端 征收提升垃圾发电 ROE，炉渣涨价和国补加速增强分红潜力，垃圾焚烧 行业盈利能力有望提升。 绿电直连政策落地促进数据中心供电，固废板块出海空间广阔，瀚蓝环 境、绿色动力等公司在东盟市场表现突出，水务领域中山公用、首创环 保等公司受益于水价市场化。 双碳约束加强带来电解水制氢、生物油 SAF 和绿醇等投资机会，非电可 再生能源考核驱动生物油需求，二代油、SAF 供不应求，船运行业绿醇 投资机会显现。 设备类公司美埃科技受益于半导体和锂电资本开支，鼎津装备受益于锂 电修复，无人化环卫设备经济性拐点到来，宇通重工、静绿环境等企业 积极布局智能化。 瀚蓝环境、绿色动力等固废现金流价值标的表现突出，龙净环保因紫金 赋能绿电增长，美埃科技与鼎津装备因细分领域优势具备良好前景，朗 坤和山高环能及高能赛恩斯值得关注。 Q&A 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略有何主要观点？ 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略持积极乐观的态度，认为该板 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 2025M10 新能源环卫装备渗透率达 25.9%， 看好其在降碳政策下的发展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-10 月环卫装备销量同比增长 7.3%，新能源环卫装备同比增长 66.6%，新能源环卫 装备在地方财政压力下实现加速增长，10 月单月渗透率达 25.9%。盈峰环境竞争力持续领先， 2025 年下半年头部竞争边际放缓。全国环卫装备电动化试点城市 2025 年 1-10 月渗透率约 27.7%。看好降碳政策下新能源环卫装备发展机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 2025M10 新能源环卫装备渗透率达 2] 25.9%，看 好其在降碳政策下的发展 [Table_Summ ...

公司跟踪：【龙净环保】紫金大幅增持，赋能龙净逻辑不变且持续深化，继续推荐。陈董事长任终身荣 誉董事长紫金核心团队稳定，新老交替不影响紫金优异稳健经营。紫金矿业即将选举出最新一届董事 会，龙净前任现任董事长均列于紫金新一届执行董事候选人名单，紫金对于龙净业务的赋能有望进一步 深化。【中国水务】FY26H1供水运营稳健增长，资本开支持续下降。FY26H1实现营收51.83亿港元， 同比-12.9%，主要系接驳及建造下滑，归母净利润5.71亿港元，同比-24.4%，剔除因康达要约收购导致 的公司股权摊薄损失（约0.64亿港元非现金损失）后的归母净利润约6.35亿港元，同比-15.9%。公司降 本增效，销售及行政费用同比-9.0%至4.37亿港元，财务费用同比-17.6%至3.52亿港元。FY26H1末资产 负债率较期初下降2.5pct至64.3%。FY26H1资本开支12.43亿港元，同比-31.8%，每股派息13港仙，同比 持平，股息率（ttm）4.8%。（估值日期：2025/11/28） 固废观点：25Q3业绩基本面强+国补回收加速，提质增效提ROE+现金流改善提分红持续兑现！1）运营 提质增效主导业绩增长&财 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Heavy Industry announced on November 14 that as of September 30, 2025, the total number of shareholders is expected to reach 17,653 [2] Company Summary - Yutong Heavy Industry is actively engaging with investors through interactive platforms [2] - The company is projecting a significant increase in its shareholder base by the end of September 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Heavy Industry (600817) emphasizes its development strategy of "precise market, precise customers, precise products" to enhance its competitive edge through innovation in products, technology, and management [1] Group 1 - The company focuses on market selection and product planning as foundational elements of its strategy [1] - Yutong Heavy Industry aims to build differentiated product competitiveness through innovation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Yutong Heavy Industry and WeRide is expected to positively impact the company's stock price and performance due to WeRide's recent IPO and enhanced capital strength [1] Group 1: Company Collaboration - Yutong Heavy Industry is actively collaborating with leading companies like WeRide to develop autonomous sanitation vehicles [1] - The partnership aims to promote the commercialization and operational implementation of autonomous driving technology [1] Group 2: Market Impact - WeRide's listing on the Hong Kong stock market has increased its market capitalization to nearly 30 billion HKD, which is anticipated to strengthen its capital capabilities [1] - The enhanced capital strength of WeRide is expected to facilitate joint efforts in advancing autonomous driving solutions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Views - Indonesia has launched a $5.6 billion waste-to-energy project, indicating a vast market opportunity for solid waste management companies to expand internationally [11][12]. - The solid waste sector is experiencing strong fundamentals, with a notable increase in free cash flow and improved return on equity (ROE) due to operational efficiencies and reduced capital expenditures [14][15]. - The water services sector is poised for growth, with expectations of increased cash flow and dividend payouts as capital expenditures decline [18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Indonesia's sovereign fund has initiated the first waste-to-energy project tender, with plans for 33 plants and a total investment of approximately 56 billion USD [11]. - The solid waste industry is transitioning to a mature phase, focusing on efficiency improvements and cash flow generation [14]. - The environmental sanitation vehicle market saw a 63.18% increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a penetration rate of 17.40% [20]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Waiming Environmental**: Selected as a supplier for Indonesia's waste-to-energy projects, with significant operational capacity [13]. - **Green Power**: Strong performance driven by increased heating capacity and cost savings [14]. - **Yongxing Co.**: Notable growth in revenue and profit due to improved operational efficiency [14]. - Companies to watch include **Dayu Water Saving**, **Lian Tai Environmental**, and **Wang Neng Environment** [1]. Financial Performance - The solid waste sector reported a 12% increase in net profit and a 2.7 percentage point rise in gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 [14]. - Free cash flow for the sector reached 13.3 billion CNY, marking a 28% increase year-on-year [14]. - Dividend payouts are expected to rise, with several companies maintaining high payout ratios [15][18]. Market Trends - The water services sector is expected to see a cash flow turnaround, similar to the solid waste sector, with anticipated increases in dividend payouts as capital expenditures decrease [18][19]. - Price reforms in water services are expected to enhance growth and valuation, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen implementing price increases [18]. Equipment and Technology - The report highlights the growth in the environmental sanitation vehicle market, particularly in new energy vehicles, which are becoming increasingly prevalent [20]. - The report also notes improvements in the profitability of lithium battery recycling, with a slight decrease in metal prices leading to better margins [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant growth in China's waste resource recycling industry, with a notable increase in export value and market trends projected for 2025-2031 [1] Industry Summary - As of September 2025, the total export value of the waste resource recycling industry reached 1.13 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 112.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the industry recorded an export value of 6.43 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.1% [1] - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and provides insights into the competitive landscape and industry trends [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the waste resource recycling sector include: Greenme (002340), Huicheng Environmental (300779), Shenwu Energy Saving (000820), Farsen (000890), Yingfeng Environment (000967), Chuhuan Technology (001336), Longjing Environmental (600388), Fida Environmental (600526), Yutong Heavy Industry (600817), and Jingjin Equipment (603279) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection industry [12] Core Insights - The environmental protection sector showed a significant increase in performance, with a 17.3% year-on-year growth in non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025, driven by stable operations and profit recovery in cyclical assets [6][40] - The overall revenue for the environmental sector reached 221.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 3.12% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 4.88% to 21.9 billion yuan [21][40] - The cash flow situation improved, with a cash collection ratio of 95.1% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 4.5 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating a stable investment environment despite a downward trend in financing [8][40] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the environmental sector achieved a revenue of 79.6 billion yuan, a 9.64% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 8.2 billion yuan, up 11.8% [6][40] - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025 was 7.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by strong performances in waste incineration, biodiesel, and air quality sectors [6][40] Financial Statements - The overall asset-liability ratio for the environmental sector was 57.3% in Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.35 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of liabilities [7] - The cash flow from operating activities showed a net inflow of 27.1 billion yuan, a 30.6% increase year-on-year, with improvements noted in waste management and water operations [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests continued investment in waste incineration and water sectors, with a potential for valuation recovery as the industry transitions towards a more market-oriented model [9] - Recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, China Everbright International, and Weiming Environmental, among others, highlighting their potential for growth and dividend returns [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, an increase of 43.2% [2][6] - The sale of Aolande led to a slight decline in revenue, but the overall quality of vehicle operations improved year-on-year. The sanitation equipment industry is recovering, and the penetration rate of new energy continues to rise [2][14] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin slightly improved due to business structure adjustments, and cash flow continued to improve. The long-term outlook for the company remains positive, driven by its competitive advantages [2][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the company achieved operating revenue of 730 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 70 million yuan, an increase of 44.2% [6] - Excluding the impact of Aolande and Zhengzhou Lvyuan, the company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 2.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with net profit attributable to shareholders approximately 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.8% [14] Industry Insights - The sanitation equipment industry saw sales of 57,700 units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. New energy sanitation equipment sales reached 10,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%, with a cumulative penetration rate of 17.8% [14] - The company sold 1,977 units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with new energy sales of 1,463 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [14] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on the manufacturing sector of new energy sanitation equipment and new energy mining equipment, which are areas where it has competitive advantages. This strategy is expected to enhance cash flow further [14] - The company is one of the few in the industry with integrated manufacturing capabilities for chassis and superstructure, providing a cost advantage in production [14]