Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities, highlighting the importance of industry research and investment opportunities in the current market environment [2]. Group 1 - The conference will take place from November 4 to 6, 2025, at the China World Hotel in Beijing, with a special room rate of 1200 RMB per night, including breakfast and service fees [2]. - The hotel offers a limited number of luxury rooms at a rate of 1400 RMB per night, emphasizing the need for early reservations due to limited availability [2]. Group 2 - The content of the subscription account is intended solely for clients of Guotai Junan Securities' research services, indicating a focus on providing tailored research and insights to a specific audience [5]. - The company expresses its commitment to maintaining service quality and managing investment risks by restricting access to its research materials [5].

国泰海通证券 国泰海通证券2026年度策略会 2025年11月4-6日 | 北京 中国大饭店 700 +上市公司 30 + 论坛 100 + 产业专家 多场特色会议、全领域研究阵容 | 2 12 34 2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 11月4日 | 更新时间2025/10/20 | | | 09:00-11:50 主论坛 | | | | 13:30-17:00 | 13:30-16:30 | | | 总量分论坛 | 人形机器人 | | | 1 | | (2) | | 13:30-16:30 | 13:30-16:30 | | | Al 开花、科技自立 | AI 算力自主可控,超节点 | | | (3) | 加速演进 | (4) | | 13:30-17:00 | 13:30-16:30 | | | 文娱产业需求向上及 Al 技 | 智能投资,量化焕新—ETF | | | (5) 术共振望带来板块繁荣 | 与量化产品的新时代投资 | (6) | | 11月5日 | | | | 09:00-12:00 | 09:00-12:00 | | | 新消费与传统消费 | 重视配置的力量，从机构 ...

Core Insights - The active user count for securities apps in China has surpassed 175 million in September 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.74% and a year-on-year increase of 9.73%, setting a new record for the year [2][4] - The competition among brokerage apps is intensifying, with two apps exceeding 10 million active users and eleven apps surpassing 6 million [2][4] - Major players like Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and Ping An Securities lead the market in terms of active user numbers [3][4] User Activity Metrics - The top three brokerage apps by active users are: 1. Huatai Securities - 11.95 million [5] 2. Guotai Junan - 10.29 million [5] 3. Ping An Securities - 8.80 million [5] - The overall growth trend in active users for brokerage apps has slowed down, with some apps experiencing slight month-on-month declines [2][4] Year-on-Year Growth - Notable year-on-year growth includes: - Xinyi Securities' Youlibao app with a 35.95% increase [4] - Guojin Securities and Guohai Securities both exceeding 20% growth [4] - Dongguan Securities' app saw a minor decline of 0.19% year-on-year [4] AI Integration in Brokerage Apps - The rapid development of AI technology is driving the need for its application in the securities industry [6][7] - Brokerages are increasingly integrating AI into their apps, enhancing features like intelligent trading tools and advisory services [7] - Huatai Securities launched an independent AI application terminal, "AI Zhangle," which integrates AI capabilities across key functions [7] - Guotai Junan introduced a new AI-driven app, "Lingxi," to deepen the integration of AI with diverse customer service scenarios [7] Future Directions for AI in Securities - The focus is on creating personalized AI services that act as "super AI service assistants" for users [8] - The digital transformation in the securities industry should be practical and integrated with specific business needs, supported by technology, personnel, and institutional frameworks [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Yingda Fund Management Co., Ltd. has collaborated with Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. to offer a promotional fee rate for certain funds starting from October 20, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2 - The applicable funds for the promotional fee rate are specified, but the exact list is not provided in the announcement [1]. - The promotional fee rate will be set at 10% of the original rate for subscriptions and regular investment plans, with specific details to be confirmed by Guotai Junan's announcements [2]. Group 3 - Important reminders include that the fee calculation and procedures will follow Guotai Junan's regulations, and the promotional offer does not apply to redemption or conversion fees [3]. - Investors are advised to refer to the fund's contract, prospectus, and other legal documents for detailed information [3]. Group 4 - Investors can consult Guotai Junan Securities and Yingda Fund Management for more details through provided contact numbers and websites [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the non-bank financial sector, highlighting strong performance expectations for Q3 earnings across various companies [5][36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Q3 performance of the equity market is expected to solidify the earnings of leading insurance companies, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a Q3 increase of 12.73% [1]. - Companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life are projected to see significant profit growth, with net profits expected to rise by 40%-60% and 45%-65% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][5]. - The report notes that the overall performance of the securities sector is also expected to improve, driven by active trading and increased business income from wealth management and investment transactions [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report indicates a mixed performance in the non-bank sector, with the insurance index rising by 3.65% while the securities sector saw declines [9][10]. Securities Sector - The report highlights that the brokerage business remains robust, with a total trading volume of 10.87 trillion yuan in the week ending October 17, 2025, despite a 15.86% decrease from the previous week [17]. - The report also notes a significant increase in margin trading balances, which rose by 52.53% year-on-year [17]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates that major insurance companies are expected to report strong premium growth, with New China Life's premiums expected to increase by 19% year-on-year [33]. Liquidity Tracking - The report discusses the liquidity situation, noting a net withdrawal of 4.979 billion yuan in the week due to central bank operations, with mixed movements in interest rates [28]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as significant profit forecasts from major players like Dongwu Securities and New China Life, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [33][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as Sunshine Insurance, China Taiping, and major securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities for potential investment opportunities [5][37].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, the response to the banking crisis, and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if market risk aversion eases, precious metal prices may experience wide fluctuations [1][2]. Precious Metals - Market risk aversion is fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term wide price swings for gold. Comex gold prices reached $4,392 per ounce and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,001 yuan per gram during the week [2]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rising risks in the employment market and potential cessation of balance sheet reduction in the coming months. The banking sector is facing renewed challenges, which has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Long-term, despite existing federal debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, gold may continue to perform well amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to declining market risk appetite, but upcoming domestic meetings and renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations may improve macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Supply-side disruptions, particularly in mining, and historically low inventory levels are expected to provide upward support for industrial metal prices [3]. - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, the overall supply situation remains tight, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term [3].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 10月17日晚间，国缆检测发布公告称，公司于近日收到保荐人国泰海通证券股份有限公 司（简称"国泰海通"）出具的《国泰海通证券股份有限公司关于更换上海国缆检测股份有限公司首次公 开发行股票持续督导之保荐代表人的函》。公司首次公开发行股票持续督导保荐代表人曹千阳先生因工 作变动原因，不再负责本公司持续督导工作。根据相关法律法规及监管规定的要求，为保证持续督导工 作的有序进行，国泰海通委派陈杭先生接替曹千阳先生履行公司首次公开发行股票的持续督导职责。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Vietnam as a key investment destination for Chinese enterprises, highlighting its potential in the Southeast Asian market and the importance of fostering cooperation and exploring investment opportunities in the region [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Vietnam Investment Forum" will be held on October 21, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on collaboration and investment opportunities in Vietnam [2]. - The forum will feature prominent speakers from various sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and law, to discuss the macroeconomic outlook and investment trends in Vietnam [2][3]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Topics - The forum will include sessions on topics such as: - Overview of China-ASEAN economic cooperation and Southeast Asia investment [3]. - Macroeconomic outlook and investment prospects in Vietnam [3]. - Trends in industrial facility leasing in Vietnam [3]. - Current status and trends of Chinese enterprises investing in Vietnam [3]. - Digital empowerment for global operations of Chinese enterprises [3]. - Opportunities and challenges in the snack retail market in Vietnam [3]. - A roundtable discussion on the rise of consumption and investment frontiers in Vietnam [3].

- **Domestic Asset BL Model** - **Model Name**: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Construction Idea**: The BL model integrates subjective views with quantitative asset allocation using Bayesian theory, optimizing asset weights based on market analysis and expected returns. It addresses the sensitivity of mean-variance models to expected returns and provides higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments [26][27][33] - **Construction Process**: 1. Use historical returns of assets over the past five years to estimate market equilibrium returns (Π) 2. Specify a risk aversion coefficient (e.g., λ = 10), which corresponds to a target volatility 3. Alternatively, assign fixed weights (e.g., stock:bond:convertible bond:commodity:gold = 10:80:5:2.5:2.5) and reverse calculate the risk aversion coefficient dynamically for each period [33] - **Evaluation**: The BL model effectively combines subjective views with quantitative methods, providing robust asset allocation solutions [26][27] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model** - **Model Name**: Risk Parity Model - **Construction Idea**: The model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset to the overall portfolio, optimizing asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation [32][35] - **Construction Process**: 1. Select appropriate underlying assets 2. Calculate each asset's risk contribution to the portfolio 3. Solve optimization problems to determine final asset weights 4. Use daily returns over the past five years to estimate the covariance matrix for stability [35] - **Evaluation**: The model provides stable returns across economic cycles and is well-suited for domestic investors [32][35] - **Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy** - **Model Name**: Macro Factor-Based Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy bridges macroeconomic research with asset allocation by constructing high-frequency macro factors (e.g., growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, liquidity) and aligning asset weights with subjective macroeconomic views [41][46] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate factor exposure levels for assets monthly 2. Use risk parity portfolios as benchmarks to compute baseline factor exposures 3. Adjust factor exposure targets based on subjective macroeconomic views (e.g., inflation up = positive deviation) 4. Solve for asset weights using the model [41][46] - **Evaluation**: The strategy effectively incorporates macroeconomic insights into asset allocation, enhancing adaptability to changing economic conditions [41][46] - **Backtest Results for Models** - **Domestic Asset BL Model 1**: - Annualized return: 3.58% - Max drawdown: 1.31% - Annualized volatility: 2.19% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset BL Model 2**: - Annualized return: 3.18% - Max drawdown: 1.06% - Annualized volatility: 1.99% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model**: - Annualized return: 3.12% - Max drawdown: 0.76% - Annualized volatility: 1.34% [39][40] - **Macro Factor-Based Strategy**: - Annualized return: 3.42% - Max drawdown: 0.65% - Annualized volatility: 1.32% [46][47]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% due to strong market conditions and improved performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - It is anticipated that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 58.63% to 165.15 billion yuan [1]. - For Q3 2025, the adjusted operating revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, while net profit is expected to reach 61.13 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [1]. Group 2: Business Contribution Analysis - The brokerage business is expected to contribute the most to the revenue growth, accounting for 48.32% of the adjusted revenue increase, primarily driven by a significant rise in market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The investment business is projected to contribute 38.14% to the adjusted operating revenue growth, as the equity market shows marginal improvements compared to the high base in Q3 2024 [2]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to increase by 21.84% to 24.82 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovery in A-share and Hong Kong stock financing, while asset management revenue is forecasted to decline by 0.81% to 32.2 billion yuan due to falling management fees [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The influx of incremental funds into the market is ongoing, supported by a new assessment method for insurance companies that encourages higher equity allocations, favoring undervalued blue-chip stocks with high return on equity [3]. - In the context of increased retail investor participation, it is recommended to focus on companies with strong earnings elasticity in Q3 [3].