Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The report emphasizes high-quality development and further enhancement of shareholder returns [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.58% year-on-year [3][4] - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue by category was as follows: liquid milk 85.54 billion yuan (+0.72% YoY), milk powder 27.60 billion yuan (+5.09% YoY), and ice cream 10.69 billion yuan (+11.72% YoY) [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of 32.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.92 billion yuan, an increase of 63.84% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 35.79%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 7.639 billion yuan in 2023, with a total return to shareholders of 8.336 billion yuan, accounting for 79.94% of net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion yuan, aimed at reducing registered capital and enhancing shareholder returns [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 131.16 billion yuan, 137.36 billion yuan, and 144.70 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.82 billion yuan, 12.43 billion yuan, and 13.28 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 15, and 14 respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887 CH) with a target price raised to RMB 33.50, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of RMB 28.61 [1][4]. Core Insights - Yili continues to expand its market share and profit margins despite a sluggish market, with a notable performance in fresh milk and ice cream segments [1]. - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, with year-on-year decreases of 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, primarily due to challenges in the liquid milk business [1]. - The management has guided for a revenue growth of 3% in 2024, targeting RMB 130 billion, with a pre-tax profit increase of 25% to RMB 14.7 billion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 126.18 billion, with a modest growth of 2.4% compared to 2022. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 130.24 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The forecast for 2024 anticipates a net profit of RMB 13.27 billion, representing a significant increase of 27.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.63, with an expected rise to RMB 2.07 in 2024 [2]. Market Performance - Yili's stock has shown resilience with a year-to-date increase of 6.95%, and its market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 180.39 billion [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 30.67 and a low of RMB 25.33, indicating a stable trading range [3]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, but fresh milk sales doubled year-on-year, while ice cream sales grew robustly by 11.7% in 2023, driven by expansion in lower-tier markets and Southeast Asia [1]. - For Q1 2024, sales in liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and other products showed varied performance, with liquid milk sales declining by 6.8% [1]. Strategic Outlook - The management aims to achieve a pre-tax net profit margin of no less than 9% by 2025, up from 8.3% in 2023, despite anticipated increases in operating expenses due to enhanced channel investments [1]. - The report emphasizes that Yili's ability to maintain and grow its market share in a challenging environment positions it favorably for future growth [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [2][6] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report show a total revenue of 1261.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104.29 billion yuan, up 10.58% year-on-year. The company also announced a share buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan, which is expected to boost investor confidence [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Yili's total revenue reached 1261.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 104.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.58%. The Q4 2023 revenue was 287.75 billion yuan, down 1.82% year-on-year, while Q1 2024 revenue was 325.77 billion yuan, down 2.58% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 73.25% [2]. Product Sales - Liquid milk sales in 2023 increased by 2.10%, indicating stable growth. The revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, dairy products, and ice cream for 2023 was 855.40 billion yuan, 275.98 billion yuan, 106.88 billion yuan, and 6.34 billion yuan, respectively. The sales volume for liquid milk grew by 2.10%, while the average price decreased by 1.35% due to falling milk prices [2]. Margin Improvement - The gross margin for 2023 was 32.58%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from lower milk prices and improved margins in liquid milk. The net profit margin was 8.26%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2024, the gross margin further improved to 35.79%, with a net profit margin of 18.18% [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 130.64 billion yuan, 128.79 billion yuan, and 137.64 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.27%, -1.42%, and 6.87%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14, 14, and 13 times [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][13] Core Views - The company experienced revenue pressure but improved net profit margins, with 2023 revenue at 125.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and net profit at 10.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [6][8] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 130 billion yuan for the year, with liquid milk sales anticipated to recover following channel adjustments [7][8] - The net profit margin for Q1 2024 increased by 7.5 percentage points to 18.3%, driven by investment income from asset disposals [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 125.76 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.43 billion yuan, with Q4 2023 revenue at 28.77 billion yuan, a decline of 1.8% year-on-year, and Q1 2024 revenue at 32.58 billion yuan, a decline of 2.6% year-on-year [6][7] - The company’s net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% year-on-year [6][8] Profitability - The gross margin improved due to a decrease in raw milk costs and an optimized product mix, with expectations for further improvement in 2024 [8] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to reach 9.9% in 2024, with a target total profit of 14.7 billion yuan [8] Market Position - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage in the market, with a diversified business layout expected to enhance profitability over the long term [6][8] - The company’s dividend payout ratio was 73.25% in 2023, with a dividend yield of approximately 4.5% [8]

证券研究报告 [收Tab入le_短Titl期e] 承压，红利坚定信心 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年5月3日 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [Table_Summary] 事件： 伊利发布 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报。2023 年，公司实现营收 [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k ] 1262 亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利润 104.29 亿元，同比+10.58%；扣非 归母净利润 100.26 亿元，同比+16.78%。其中，23Q4 实现营收 288 亿 投资评级 买入 元，同比-1.82%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比-23.47%；扣非归母净利润 上次评级 买入 15.73 亿元，同比+56.49%。24Q1，公司实现营收 326 亿元，同比- 2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比+63.84%；扣非归母净利润37.28亿 [马Ta铮b le _ A u t食ho品r]饮 料行业首席分析师 元，同比+12.39%。 执业编号：S1500520110001 联系电话：13392190215 邮 箱：mazh ...

证 券 2024 年 05 月 03 日 研 究 液体乳板块静待修复，多板块发力增长 报 告 —伊利股份（600887.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，伊利股份发布 2023 年年报、2024 年一 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 季度报、关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的公 告。 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-30 当前股价（元） 28.61 ▌盈利端改善可期，回购方案彰显发展信心 总市值（亿元） 1821 总股本（百万股） 6366 公 司 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 总 营 收 分 别 为 1261.79/287.75/325.77 亿元，分别同 比+2%/-2%/-3%， 流通股本（百万股） 6305 2024Q1 营收端承压，主要系基数高/春节后消费需求偏弱， 52周价格范围（元） 25.33-30.67 导致上游供给过剩与需求恢复不足的供需矛盾所致，当前公 日均成交额（百万元） 983.39 司主动调整出货节奏及上游奶源采购和消化，随着渠道逐步 市场表现 恢复，有望带动 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 30.82 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a 2023 revenue of 126.179 billion CNY, up 2.44% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.58% YoY to 10.429 billion CNY [1] - In 2023, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and cold beverage segments generated revenues of 85.54 billion CNY, 27.598 billion CNY, and 10.688 billion CNY, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 0.72%, 5.09%, and 11.72% [1] - The company's net profit margin increased by 0.61 pct to 8.26% in 2023, driven by rational marketing expenses and lower milk prices [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue declined by 2.58% YoY, mainly due to inventory reduction efforts, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 63.84% YoY [1] - The company aims for a 2024 revenue target of 130 billion CNY, representing a 3.03% YoY growth, with a dividend payout ratio of 73.25% in 2023, increasing to 79.94% after accounting for share repurchases [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 130.153 billion CNY, 136.876 billion CNY, and 143.54 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 3.15%, 5.17%, and 4.87% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.079 billion CNY, 12.387 billion CNY, and 13.178 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 25.42%, -5.29%, and 6.38% [1] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is projected to be 19.8%, 16.2%, and 15.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.0%, 9.0%, and 9.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 13.77, 14.54, and 13.67 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]

华福证券 乳品 2024年04月30日 公 司 伊利股份（ ） 600887.SH 买入（维持评级） 研 究 全年经营仍稳健，回购彰显公司发展信心 当前价格： 28.61元 基本数据 投资要点： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 6,366.10/6,305.09 流通A股市值(百万元) 180,388.74  公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报 每股净资产(元) 9.28 资产负债率(%) 60.95 2023年公司营业总收入1261.79亿元，同比增长2.4%；归母净利润 一年内最高/最低价(元) 31.00/25.20 104.29亿元，同比增长10.6%。单四季度来看，2023Q4营业收入287.75 一年内股价相对走势 亿元，同比变动-1.8%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比变动-23.5%。23年 收入端增长不及预期。2024年一季报显示，24Q1公司营业总收入325.77 公 亿元，同比变动-2.6%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比增长63.8%。考虑到 司 春节错配影响，我们测算 23Q4+24Q1 营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别为 财 613.52/69.71/53.00亿元，同比变动-2. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, total revenue was 32.58 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.923 billion yuan, up 63.8% year-on-year [3] - The company is experiencing a soft performance in liquid milk due to inventory reduction in the off-season, with liquid milk revenue growth of 0.7% in 2023 and a decline of 6.8% in Q1 2024. The product mix continues to upgrade, with expectations for better performance in premium products [3] - The company’s adult milk powder segment showed steady growth, while the infant formula segment faced pressure due to declining birth rates and channel adjustments. Future growth is anticipated as birth rates recover [3] - Cost advantages are improving gross margins, with gross margins increasing by 0.3% in 2023 and 2 percentage points in Q1 2024. The company is actively controlling costs, leading to significant improvements in gross sales margins [3] - The net profit margin exceeded expectations in 2023, with a notable increase in investment income in Q1 2024 due to the sale of coal assets. The company’s net profit margin and net profit margin excluding non-recurring items both improved year-on-year [3] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns through a higher dividend payout ratio and share buybacks, with a target revenue of 130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 3% year-on-year increase [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 130.3 billion yuan, 136.6 billion yuan, and 143.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.23%, 4.9%, and 4.75% respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.1 billion yuan, 12.2 billion yuan, and 13.5 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 15x, and 13x [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% [2] - In Q1 2024, the revenue was 32.58 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 63.8% to 5.92 billion yuan [2] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 1 to 2 billion yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 41.88 yuan per share, representing 0.38% to 0.75% of the total share capital [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company achieved stable revenue growth despite industry pressures, driven by factors such as the implementation of new national standards for infant formula, successful product upgrades, and expansion into new channels [2] - Revenue breakdown for 2023: liquid milk at 85.54 billion yuan (+0.7%), milk powder and dairy products at 27.60 billion yuan (+5.1%), and ice cream at 10.69 billion yuan (+11.7%) [2] - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 8.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement attributed to lower raw milk costs [2] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has seen a continuous improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin of 18.2% in Q1 2024, up 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 improved by 2.0 percentage points, benefiting from sustained raw milk cost advantages [2] Future Outlook - For 2024, the company is expected to maintain a stable revenue growth trajectory, with a projected net profit growth of 24.8% in 2024, followed by a slight decline in 2025 and a recovery in 2026 [2] - The company aims to enhance its competitive position in the market, particularly in adult nutrition and ice cream segments, aligning with consumer trends [2] - The long-term profitability outlook remains positive, supported by digital transformation and operational efficiency improvements [2]