Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends [2] - The report highlights the need to focus on investment opportunities following stabilization in the market [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] 2. Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices decreased by 3.45% to 100,100 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices fell by 5.07% to 23,315 CNY/ton [24] - SHFE gold prices dropped by 8.92% to 1,090.12 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold rose by 5.13% to 4,988.60 USD/ounce [26] - SHFE silver prices decreased by 37.17% to 18,799 CNY/kg, with COMEX silver down by 1.28% to 77.53 USD/ounce [26] 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PCE, which show a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and 2.79%, respectively [29][30] - China's CPI and PPI for December were reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively [30] 4. Precious Metals: Low Inventory Disturbances - The report notes that low inventory levels continue to disrupt precious metal prices, with significant fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets [52][53] 5. Copper: Price Fluctuations - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply-side adjustments and demand dynamics playing crucial roles [65][72] 6. Aluminum: Price Adjustments - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal demand fluctuations, with a noted decrease in processing rates [10][80] 7. Energy Metals: Strong Demand - The report highlights robust demand for energy metals, particularly lithium, despite some price pressures due to macroeconomic factors [89][92] 8. Rare Earths: Price Trends - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, continue to rise, supported by tight supply conditions [11]

有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a dramatic decline on February 5, 2026, with silver prices plummeting over 14% and gold dropping more than 3%, leading to significant losses in related stocks and a stark contrast between capital market panic and physical market demand [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On February 5, silver prices fell to a low of $75.83 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver contracts drop nearly 15% to 19,340 yuan per kilogram. Gold prices fell below the critical psychological level of $4,800 [1][4]. - A significant number of stocks related to gold and silver, such as Hunan Gold and Sichuan Gold, hit their daily limit down, reflecting a widespread sell-off in the sector [1][4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline was preceded by a strong performance in January, where gold prices reached nearly $5,600 per ounce and silver exceeded $120 per ounce, resulting in gains of over 25% for gold and 60% for silver in just a month [3][4]. - The sell-off on February 5 was characterized by a lack of liquidity and a surge in stop-loss orders, creating a downward spiral in prices [4][6]. Regulatory Changes - Prior to the crash, exchanges raised margin requirements for silver contracts, which forced leveraged traders to either add funds or face forced liquidation, exacerbating the price decline [6][12]. - Major banks issued risk warnings to clients regarding the heightened volatility in the precious metals market, advising caution and stricter trading rules [12]. Institutional Behavior - Large investment institutions began to adjust their portfolios, with noticeable outflows from major gold ETFs during the price drop, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7][12]. - Analysts noted that the market's reaction was influenced by macroeconomic factors, including potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and interest rate expectations, which could strengthen the dollar and negatively impact gold and silver prices [6][12]. Physical Market Response - Despite the turmoil in the capital markets, physical gold and silver demand surged in places like Shenzhen, where customers flocked to purchase gold bars, viewing the price drop as an opportunity [9][10]. - Retail gold prices adjusted downward in response to falling wholesale prices, making gold jewelry more attractive to consumers [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the causes of the market decline, with some attributing it to technical adjustments and profit-taking, while others pointed to macroeconomic uncertainties stemming from U.S. Federal Reserve personnel changes [12][13]. - The overall sentiment in the market shifted from extreme optimism to fear, with many investors now closely monitoring support levels and physical demand to gauge future price stability [13].

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing a positive trend, with significant increases in stock prices and a rebound in spot gold prices, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 0.23%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hunan Gold (up 10.00%), Chaohongji (up 9.98%), and Hangmin Co. (up 9.95%) [1]. - The gold ETF fund (159322) increased by 0.70%, with the latest price at 2.02 yuan [1]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Spot gold has rebounded to over $4,850 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.57% and a recovery of nearly $200 from its daily low [1]. - Huatai Securities predicts that under the backdrop of de-globalization, central banks will continue to increase gold allocations, which will support a long-term rise in gold prices, potentially reaching a range of $5,400 to $6,800 per ounce between 2026 and 2028 [1]. Group 3: Investment Potential - Currently, the proportion of investable gold in global financial assets stands at 2.89%, which is significantly below the 2011 peak of 3.6%, indicating substantial room for increased allocation [1]. - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1][2].

消息面上，国际贵金属持续下行，2月6日早，金银开盘延续下跌，现货黄金一度跌破4700美元关口，日 内跌幅超1%；现货白银最低触及64.035美元/盎司，昨日收跌逾20%，回吐年初至今涨幅。昨晚公布的 美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以 来同期新高，环比激增205%。此外，美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水 平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高 位。 黄金股集体低开，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)跌5.36%，报180港元；灵宝黄金(03330) 跌5.11%，报20.78港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)跌5.11%，报36.74港元；赤峰黄金（600988） (06693)跌4.74%，报33.8港元。 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 灵宝黄金 中国黄金国际 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 45.39 -0.43 -0.94% 6.11% 4.08% 2.03% 0.00% 2.03% 4.08% 6.11% 43.02 43 ...

Market Overview - The gold and silver markets experienced significant volatility, with gold prices dropping nearly 3% at one point and settling at $4926.64 per ounce, down 0.76% [1] - Silver faced a more severe decline, plunging nearly 16% during the day and closing down 10.69% at $78.77 per ounce [3] Futures Market - The futures market mirrored the spot market's weakness, with COMEX gold futures down 0.4% at $4931.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down over 7% at $77.875 per ounce [5] Stock Market Impact - Precious metal-themed LOFs (Listed Open-Ended Funds) fell, with gold LOFs and Jiashi Gold LOF dropping over 2%, and Guotou Silver LOF hitting a trading halt for the fourth consecutive day [7] - The A-share precious metals sector saw an overall decline exceeding 6%, with most stocks closing in the red [8] Individual Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks included: - Hunan Silver: down 9.97% at $13.90 - Xiaocheng Technology: down 9.84% at $59.04 - Sichuan Gold: down 9.74% at $46.08 [9] Market Sentiment and Influences - The recent downturn in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including the nomination of hawkish Federal Reserve member Waller, which triggered market panic and profit-taking after significant price increases [12][16] - Analysts suggest that the core driver of the decline is the large-scale profit-taking following a period of substantial price appreciation, rather than a direct causal relationship with Waller's nomination [16] Future Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected to continue, but the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as central bank purchasing and increased demand from private investors [20] - Goldman Sachs maintains a price target of $5400 per ounce for gold by December 2026, while JPMorgan is more aggressive, predicting $6300 per ounce, citing ongoing demand from central banks and diversified investment strategies [20]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a collective decline, with China Gold International dropping nearly 8% [1] - Zijin Mining International fell close to 7%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Lingbao Gold, and Shandong Gold all dropped over 6% [1] - China Silver Group, Zhaojin Mining, Tongguan Gold, and Mount Everest Gold also followed the downward trend, with Shandong Gold decreasing by 5.5% [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks have declined again, with China Gold International (02099) down 6.21% to HKD 188.9, Zijin Mining (02899) down 5% to HKD 39.56, Zijin Gold International (02259) down 4.82% to HKD 205.2, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) down 4.77% to HKD 35.9 [1] - Recent volatility in the international gold market has been noted, with a report from Galaxy Securities indicating that expectations of liquidity premium due to perceived loss of Federal Reserve independence and a pullback from recent price surges may lead to a potential increase in gold prices [1] - Dongfang Securities mentioned that the recent nomination of Waller by Trump for the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to market expectations that Waller would support interest rate cuts, but would not adopt aggressive monetary easing policies like other potential nominees, alleviating concerns about Fed independence [1]

Group 1 - The silver market experienced a significant drop, with spot silver falling over 8% and spot gold declining more than 1% [1] - In the A-share market, the precious metals sector saw widespread adjustments, with companies like Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit down and several others, including Xiaocheng Technology and Silver Nonferrous, also experiencing substantial declines [3] - The precious metals sector reported a weekly decline of 25.57%, while it had increased by 44.61% over the past month and 63.85% over the past quarter, with an impressive annual increase of 187.90% [4] Group 2 - Specific companies in the precious metals sector faced notable declines, such as Xiaocheng Technology down 9.74%, Hunan Silver down 9.97%, and Silver Nonferrous down 8.89% [4] - Hunan Silver is identified as a high-tech enterprise focused on the production and operation of high-purity silver and silver deep processing [4] - The overall market sentiment in the precious metals sector appears bearish, with multiple companies reporting significant losses in their stock prices [3][4]