证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 有色金属 降息预期升温，白银率先突破 贵金属：降息预期升温，白银率先突破。本周特朗普罢免库克一案持续发酵，美联储独立性 受到挑战，利空美元。周五晚 8:30 公布的美国核心 PCE 指数年率录得 2.9%，符合预期，但 已连续 3 个月回升，数据公布后，交易员继续押注美联储降息，2Y 国债收益率和美元双双 走弱，金银价格快速走强。截至周五收盘，伦敦银收于 39.69 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银收于 40.75 美元/盎司，伦敦和 COMEX 白银均创年内新高，技术面形成强趋势突破；伦敦金收至 3448.1 美元/盎司，接近年内 3500 美元/盎司高位。往后看，不排除美国经济呈现通胀上升， 就业会落的"类滞胀"局面，我们强烈看好后市金银价格。短期紧盯 9 月 5 日非农就业数 据、9 月 11 日 CPI 数据、9 月 17 日 FOMC 会议决议。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万 国黄金集团、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：宏观转松与金九银十共振，看好后市铜价。①宏观方面：周内 ...

消息面上，隔夜金价站上3400美元/盎司，创五周新高。美联储理事沃勒强调支持美联储9月会议降息25 个基点，预计未来3—6个月将进一步降息。此外，当前市场继续评估美联储独立性面临的威胁。值得关 注的是，近期多家黄金矿业公司中期业绩亮眼。紫金矿业（601899）上半年营归母净利润232.92亿元， 同比增加54.41%；赤峰黄金上半年归母净利润达11.07亿元，同比大幅增长55.79%。招金矿业上半年归 母净利润14.40亿元，同比激增160.44%。 赤峰黄金 紫金矿业 赤峰黄金 紫金矿业 招金矿业 灵宝黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 25.97 0.89 3.55% 4.31% 2.87% 1.44% 0.00% 1.44% 2.87% 4.31% 24.00 24.36 24.72 25.08 25.44 25.80 26.16 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 89万 179万 268万 黄金股集体走高，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨4.97%，报105.7港元；赤峰黄金 （600988）(06693)涨4.38%，报25.76港元 ...

证券之星消息，8月29日贵金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.41%，中金黄金领涨。当日上证指数报收于3857.93，上涨0.37%。深证成指报收于 12696.15，上涨0.99%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交重(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 15.97 | 4.58% | 181.80万 | 28.88亿 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 19.92 | 4.46% | 37.54万 | 7.37亿 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 25.97 | 3.55% | 95.49万 | 24.65亿 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | 19.63 | 3.32% | - 50.48万 | 9.90亿 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | 12.60 | 1.37% | 25.36万 | 3.20 Z | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 19.73 | 1.28% | 38.55万 | 7.60亿 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][6] - The Gold ETF (159937) has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.23%, with a trading volume of 68.3 million on August 29 [1] - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed the $3400 mark, trading around $3412.65 per ounce, with a daily high of $3419.22 and a low of $3407.70 [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly the recent airstrikes by Israel on Houthi forces in Yemen, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6] - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which typically supports gold prices [4] - Analysts from Dongwu Futures and Everbright Futures suggest that the upcoming Fed meeting and ongoing geopolitical tensions will likely keep gold prices strong in the short term [5][6] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to persistent global inflation, economic recovery uncertainties, and increasing central bank gold purchases [6] - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities, allowing investors to hedge against market volatility [6]

8月29日，A股风格再度切换，前期大幅领涨的科技板块回调，顺周期、反内卷主题冲高，截至早盘发稿，有色50ETF(159652)涨2.86%，成交额大幅放量， 开盘不足1小时，成交额已超4600万元，超过昨日全天成交额。 | 分时 多日 1分 = 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 母 2 | >> | | 1.257 +0.035 +2.86% | | | 有色50ETF 空 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159652.SZ[有色50ETF] 2025/08/29 收1.257 幅2.86%(0.035) 开1.235 高1.257 四 | | | | | | 159652 ^ | | | MA5 1.2291 MA10 1.1931 MA20 1.1511 MA60 1.0511 MA120 0.9861 MA250 (▼ | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 10:17:15 交易中 | | | | 日のア | | | 1.257-> | | 净值走势 | 汇添富中证细分有色金属 | | ▽ ...

Group 1 - Gold stocks collectively rose, with China Gold International increasing by 4.97% to HKD 105.7, Chifeng Jilong Gold rising by 4.38% to HKD 25.76, Zhaojin Mining up by 4.42% to HKD 24.1, and Lingbao Gold gaining 4.15% to HKD 12.8 [1] - The overnight gold price surpassed USD 3400 per ounce, reaching a five-week high [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized support for a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, with further cuts expected in the next 3 to 6 months [1] Group 2 - Several gold mining companies reported strong mid-year performance, with Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders reaching CNY 23.292 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.41% [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year was CNY 1.107 billion, a significant year-on-year growth of 55.79% [1] - Zhaojin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders surged to CNY 1.440 billion, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 160.44% [1]

华侨银行环球金融市场研究与策略部主管及首席经济学家Selena Ling预计，美联储9月会议将减息25点 子，全年仍有高达75点子的减息空间，并料今明两年共减息5次。金价方面，她指除了地缘政治和政治 因素的推动外，央行、机构和零售投资者的持续需求，以及美联储恢复减息周期，可能进一步提升黄金 的吸引力。她对金价年尾目标为每盎司3570美元，明年中目标3850美元。 8月29日消息，港股黄金股冲高，中国黄金国际、招金矿业、赤峰黄金涨超5%，灵宝黄金、潼关黄金涨 超4%，中国白银集团、紫金矿业涨超3%。 当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上公开了一封致美联储理事丽莎·库克的信 件，宣布即刻将其免职。此前分析称，如果库克离职，特朗普可能获得四个席位，距离"掌控美联储"将 更近一步。 分析师认为，特朗普"开除"库克的举动不仅推升了降息预期升温，还再度点燃了外界对美联储独立性的 担忧，打压投资者对美元资产的信心，并将目光转向黄金、日元等传统避险资产以及加密货币。 来源：新浪港股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metal Industry ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 2% during intraday trading, currently up by 1.49% [1] - Key constituent stocks include China Rare Earth, which hit the daily limit, and Jiangxi Copper and Shenghe Resources, with respective gains of 4.72% and 4.54% [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Bowe Alloy, Nanshan Aluminum, and Western Superconducting showed weaker performance, with declines of 2.89%, 2.85%, and 2.18% respectively [1] Group 2 - The Nonferrous Metal Industry ETF (159876) passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which increased by 1.59% on the same day [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and China Aluminum, among others [3] Group 3 - On August 26, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.7 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 54.4% respectively [5] - Huachuang Securities noted that Powell's comments reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support precious metal prices [5] - Recent declines in aluminum rod inventories indicate a recovery in market consumption, with the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season likely to bolster aluminum prices [5] - Nanjing Securities reported that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations, with stable support expected from traditional demand in real estate and infrastructure, as well as increasing demand from new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors [5]

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 | 最新收盘价（元） | 24.81 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）19.00 | / 16.64 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）471 | / 413 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.30 / 15.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.3% | | 市盈率 | 23.19 | | 第一大股东 | 李金阳 | 研究所 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 赤峰黄金(600988) 产销量阶段性承压，看好 25H2 业绩继续释放 l 25H1 实现归母净利润 11.07 亿元，Q2 业绩表现亮眼 发布时间：2025-08-28 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 吉隆矿业：新增 6 万吨/年地下开采项目完成初步设计与安全设 施设计修订稿报审；新建 6 万吨/年地下开采项目获核准批复。 五龙矿业：五 ...

Market Overview - The precious metals sector increased by 1.68% on August 28, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3843.6, up 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12571.37, up 2.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hunan Silver (002716) closed at 5.47, with a rise of 4.19% and a trading volume of 2.0441 million shares, resulting in a transaction value of 1.092 billion yuan [1] - Shandong Gold (600547) closed at 32.99, up 2.64%, with a transaction value of 1.66 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Yanzhong Technology (300139): closed at 19.48, up 1.78%, transaction value of 529 million yuan [1] - Zhaojin Mining (000506): closed at 9.50, up 1.60%, transaction value of 223 million yuan [1] - Hunan Gold (002155): closed at 20.46, up 1.54%, transaction value of 1.13 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 169 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 82.18 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Hunan Silver: net inflow of 134 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail outflows of 76.34 million yuan [2] - Shandong Gold: net inflow of 83.46 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail outflows of 3.31 million yuan [2] - Zhongjin Gold (600489): net inflow of 16.16 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail outflows of 14.57 million yuan [2]