Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in revenue and profit due to rising gold prices and strict cost control measures, with a notable increase in gold production and sales efficiency [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.76 billion yuan, up 119% year-on-year [1]. - The gold mining business generated 8 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 88% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 47%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of gold was 524 yuan per gram, a 20% increase year-on-year, while the cost of gold sales decreased by 1% to 278 yuan per gram [3]. Production and Sales - The company produced 15.2 tons of gold in 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, with sales also reaching 15.2 tons, up 5% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 480 million yuan, up 141% year-on-year [4]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced gold sales costs despite rising operational costs in Q1 2025, with expectations of a return to normal cost levels in subsequent quarters [4][10]. - The cost of gold sales in Q1 2025 increased by 11.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased mining efforts and lower ore grades [4]. Expansion and Exploration - The company is actively expanding production capacity and exploring new mining opportunities, with several key projects underway to enhance output [5][9]. - The company has initiated a three-year exploration plan to increase resource reserves across all mining sites, focusing on both internal exploration and potential acquisitions [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and has significant potential for gold production growth, with projected net profits of 3.037 billion yuan, 3.791 billion yuan, and 4.246 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 72.11%, 24.86%, and 11.98% respectively [10].

Group 1 - The China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index (930939) has shown a slight increase of 0.22% as of April 30, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Amlogic (688099) up 4.29% and Anker Innovations (300866) up 3.80% [1] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) has also risen by 0.22%, with the latest price reported at 0.92 yuan, and a significant increase in shares by 5 million this month, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [1] - Huaxi Securities highlights the role of the Chinese version of the stabilization fund in supporting the A-share market, emphasizing a higher positioning for "stabilizing and activating the stock market" compared to previous times [1] Group 2 - The 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index, which selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the broader 500 Index [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and Ninebot (689009), with the top ten stocks accounting for a total weight of 24.26% [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.85%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 483 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 141.10% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 26.66% [1] - The company's gold production was 3.34 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.89%, while sales volume was 3.33 tons, down 7.04% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cost and Margin Analysis - The sales price of gold was 658.44 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.25% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 46.42%, up 12.96 percentage points year-on-year, but down 1.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's sales cost for gold was 355.09 yuan per gram, an increase of 11.51% year-on-year, while the all-in sustaining cost was 349.09 yuan per gram, up 28.09% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10, 2025, raising approximately 2.676 billion HKD in net funds [3] - This listing marks a significant step in the company's internationalization strategy and enhances its core competitiveness [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.592 billion, 2.984 billion, and 3.364 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.89%, 15.14%, and 12.73% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.36, 1.57, and 1.77 yuan per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.9, 17.3, and 15.3 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders reached 483 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141%. This growth is attributed to a significant rise in gold prices [3]. - The company's Q1 gold production and sales volume both decreased by 7% year-on-year, totaling 3.34 tons and 3.33 tons respectively. This decline is considered normal as the company focuses on increasing mining efforts for future expansion [4]. - The sales cost of gold increased to 355.09 yuan/g in Q1 2025, up from 300.51 yuan/g in Q1 2024. The increase in costs is primarily due to higher costs at the Jin Xing Vasa mine [5]. - The company expects to achieve its annual production and sales target of 16.70 tons of gold, with no adjustments made to this guidance despite the Q1 decline [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady increase in net profit, with estimates of 3.28 billion yuan, 3.87 billion yuan, and 4.26 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 86.02%, 17.94%, and 10.01% [6][9]. Financial Summary - As of the latest report, the company's total market capitalization is 50.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.9 billion shares [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.76 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.20 [9][12]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 47.3%, indicating a moderate level of leverage [2][12].

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-29 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 26.68 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）19.00 | / 16.64 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）507 | / 444 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.30 / 15.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.3% | | 市盈率 | 24.93 | | 第一大股东 | 李金阳 | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 赤峰黄金(600988) 25 年一季报点评：静待瓦萨成本企稳，金价上行 公司业绩释放有望加速 l 25 年 Q1 归母净利润 4.83 亿元，同比+141% 公司发布 2025 年一季报，受益黄金价格同比大幅上行，公司业 绩释放出色：营业收入 24.07 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

Group 1 - As of April 28, a total of 495 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net outflows of main funds for five consecutive days or more [1] - The stock with the longest consecutive net outflow is Gao Meng New Materials, with 17 days, followed by *ST Jiu You with 16 days [1] - The largest total net outflow amount is from Light Media, with a cumulative net outflow of 2.024 billion yuan over five days [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free has seen a cumulative net outflow of 1.803 billion yuan over 13 days, ranking second in total outflow [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow ratio relative to trading volume is *ST Longyu, which has seen a 26.28% decline over the past six days [1] - The table lists various stocks with their respective net outflow days, amounts, ratios, and cumulative price changes, indicating a trend of declining stock prices among those with significant net outflows [1][2] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a 1.39% decline over the past five days [4] - The ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.23 times and has experienced a net inflow of 3.337 million yuan, with the latest share count increasing by 1 million to 430 million [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the A-share non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a renewed interest from actively managed equity funds, particularly in gold and copper sectors, driven by external economic factors and a favorable outlook for gold prices [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q1 2025, actively managed equity funds increased their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings rising to 2.18% of total stock investments, up from 1.76% in Q4 2024, marking a 0.42 percentage point increase after two consecutive quarters of reduction [2]. - The main focus of fund replenishment in Q1 2025 was on the gold and copper sectors, with respective market value proportions of 0.44% and 0.85% of total fund stock investments, reflecting increases of 0.18 percentage points for gold and 0.18 percentage points for copper compared to Q4 2024 [3]. Group 2: Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry increased, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 73.23% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The top stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining, Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Chuangjiang New Materials [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S. tariff increases and the resulting economic uncertainties may lead to a sustained rise in gold prices, which are expected to stabilize around $3,000 per ounce, thereby enhancing the performance and cash flow of gold companies [1][5]. - There is significant room for increased holdings in the A-share gold sector, as current positions remain below the high levels seen in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating potential for further investment [5]. - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold sector, as well as high-dividend, low-valuation leaders in the copper and aluminum sectors like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum for medium to long-term investment [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices due to improving downstream demand and inventory depletion [5][7]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The tin market is anticipated to experience weak price movements due to a lack of short-term catalysts [9]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics may support prices [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a weekly increase of 2.04%, outperforming other sectors [19]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten (+4.50%), nickel (+3.79%), and aluminum (+3.78%) [19]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,415 per ton, up $283 per ton (3.10%) from April 17 [5]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥77,650 per ton, up ¥1,780 per ton (2.34%) from April 17 [5]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased significantly, indicating strong demand [6]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached ¥20,100 per ton, an increase of ¥210 per ton (1.06%) [7]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,575 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory also saw a decline [7]. - The operating rate for leading aluminum profile enterprises increased to 59.5% [8]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥263,180 per ton, up ¥6,800 per ton (2.65%) [9]. - The market is expected to remain weak due to insufficient demand catalysts [9]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to ¥235,500 per ton, down ¥8,000 per ton [9]. - The market activity is low, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Huaxi Youshi [10][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profits for Q1 2025, with a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 141.10% [3]. - The production of gold decreased slightly to 3.3 tons, down 6.89% year-on-year, primarily due to lower ore grades at overseas mines [4]. - The sales price of gold increased by 40.25% year-on-year to 658 yuan per gram, contributing to the overall profit growth despite rising costs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.85% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.12% [3]. - The gross profit margin for gold sales was 46.42%, up 12.96 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The total expenses for sales, management, and financial costs amounted to 143 million yuan, accounting for 5.96% of revenue, which is a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Production and Sales - The company’s gold production was 3.3 tons in Q1 2025, with a sales volume also at 3.3 tons, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The production of other metals showed varied growth, with copper concentrate production increasing by 111.03% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is accelerating key projects to enhance production capacity, with several mining projects expected to contribute to increased output in the coming years [5]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 30.85 billion yuan, 35.35 billion yuan, and 40.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [5][6].