证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 银行 下半年银行还会大幅卖债吗？ ——银行 OCI 账户储备大盘点 投资要点 国有行二级市场买卖行为主要由剩余流动性和风险指标驱动，中小银行可能主要 由业绩压力驱动。①国有行：受剩余流动性约束。25Q1 国有行增量存贷差低于 往年，同业存单融资规模大幅增加，剩余流动性收敛。叠加一级市场发行规模增 加，导致国有行二级市场卖出增加。从账户分类来看，25Q2 国有行 AC 和 OCI 账户规模分别较 25Q1 增长 2.2%和 6.5%。国有行业绩压力较小，AC 和 OCI 账 户仅小幅卖出。同时利率风险指标约束了国有行长债配置能力。②股份行：受 业绩压力影响，AC 账户缩表。上半年股份行剩余流动性宽裕，增量存贷差维持 高位，同业存单融资减少。25Q2 股份行 AC 账户规模环比下降 2.2%，OCI 账户 规模环比增长 1.7%，增速较 25Q1 下降 7.7pc。③城农商行：受业绩压力影响， 部分银行 AC 账户和 OCI 账户缩表。上半年城农商行剩余流动性宽裕，增量存 贷差维持高位，同业存单融资减少。25Q2 农商行 AC 账户规模环比下降 1.1%， OCI 账户规模环比下降 ...

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a slight increase of 0.32% on October 16, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25% [1] Sector Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 297.90, with a rise of 2.07% and a trading volume of 16,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 496 million yuan [1] - Yili Group (600887) saw a closing price of 27.81, up 0.58%, with a trading volume of 368,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.025 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Sanyuan Foods (600429) at 4.80 (+0.21%), and Bright Dairy (600597) at 8.57 (-0.12%) [1] Individual Stock Movements - The beverage and dairy sector saw significant declines in some stocks, such as Pinuo Food (300892) which fell by 4.52% to 34.87, with a trading volume of 55,100 shares and a transaction value of 195 million yuan [2] - Knight Dairy (920786) decreased by 4.40% to 10.00, with a trading volume of 106,800 shares and a transaction value of 109 million yuan [2] - Other stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) and Yiming Food (605179) also experienced declines of 3.86% and 3.20%, respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net outflow of 179 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 193 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment within the sector, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors showed interest [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The external environment's uncertainty has increased, leading to a temporary decline in market risk appetite. This, combined with the insurance sector entering a peak season, has heightened demand for dividend allocation, creating opportunities for portfolio adjustments. The report is optimistic about the relative performance of the banking sector in Q4 2025 [3][22] - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Chongqing Bank (601963, Not Rated), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) 2. Large state-owned banks with solid fundamentals and good defensive value, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated), China Construction Bank (601939, Not Rated), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [3][22] Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Growth - In September 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations. However, this represents a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 billion yuan [8][9] - The structure of social financing shows a year-on-year decrease in RMB loans by 366.2 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand and the ongoing impact of debt restructuring [9][10] - Government bonds also saw a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, although their issuance has accelerated this year [9] - Direct financing for enterprises increased by 240.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with bond financing up by 203.1 billion yuan, largely due to a low base effect from last year [9] Loan Growth Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.6% year-on-year in September 2025, with new loans of 1.29 trillion yuan, slightly below expectations and a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan [13] - Residential loans decreased by 107.9 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate loans increased by 200 billion yuan [13][14] - The report notes a significant decline in bill financing, which decreased by 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a shift in corporate financing dynamics [14] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 growth improved significantly, rising by 7.2% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.4% [19] - In September, new RMB deposits totaled 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 760 billion yuan [19][21] - The report highlights a trend of funds moving back to banks, with corporate deposits increasing by 149.4 billion yuan, while fiscal deposits decreased by 604.2 billion yuan [19]

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector rose by 0.62% on October 15, with Chongqing Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13118.75, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Chongqing Bank (601963) closed at 10.07, up 1.72% with a trading volume of 455,900 shares and a transaction value of 461 million [1] - Jiangsu Bank (616009) closed at 10.86, up 1.31% with a trading volume of 2.17 million shares and a transaction value of 2.337 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Changsha Bank (601577) at 9.35 (+1.08%), Shanghai Bank (601229) at 9.70 (+1.04%), and Nanjing Bank (600109) at 11.66 (+1.04%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector experienced a net outflow of 301 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 136 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are increasing their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Banks - Qilu Bank (601665) had a net outflow of 38.24 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.55 million [3] - Ningbo Bank (002142) saw a net outflow of 18.51 million from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 1.63 million [3] - Beijing Bank (601169) experienced a net outflow of 6.04 million from institutional investors, but retail investors added 35.47 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates have a neutral to positive impact on banks' net interest margins, with expectations for stable interest income performance in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, supporting stable interest income performance. The LPR and deposit rate adjustments are projected to have a neutral to positive effect on net interest margins, with new loan rates remaining relatively firm [1][2]. - For Q3 2025, the growth rate of interest income for listed banks is forecasted to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, but will increase by 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with state-owned banks showing a growth of 0.8 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income Performance - Non-interest income is expected to show differentiation, with state-owned banks likely performing better due to significant growth in equity fund products and a shift in deposits from general to interbank deposits [3]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 indicates a 3.4% year-on-year growth in net fee income for listed banks, with state-owned banks expected to see a growth of 0.3 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Credit Costs - Asset quality is anticipated to remain stable, with credit costs potentially returning to a downward trend. Despite a decline in loan growth, the write-off rate remains steady, which may support stable non-performing loan indicators [4]. - For Q3 2025, the forecast for impairment losses is a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with net profit growth of 0.7% year-on-year for listed banks [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment themes: high-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, and large state-owned banks with good defensive value [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector [7] Core Viewpoints - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, supporting stable interest income performance. Loan growth is projected to decline slightly, while financial investments remain a key driver for asset expansion [2][13] - The report highlights a potential divergence in performance among different banking segments, with state-owned banks showing relative strength compared to city and rural commercial banks [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Net Interest Margin Stabilization - The net interest margin is anticipated to remain stable, with interest income growth expected to improve slightly. The projected year-on-year growth rate for interest income in Q3 2025 is -0.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5 percentage points [19][21] - Loan growth is expected to face downward pressure, with a slight decline in growth rate to 7.93% by the end of September 2025 [16][13] 2. Non-Interest Income Performance - There is an expected divergence in non-interest income performance, with state-owned banks likely to outperform. The projected year-on-year growth rate for non-interest income in Q3 2025 is 7.1%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.7 percentage points [26][33] - The report notes a trend of deposit migration from general deposits to interbank deposits, benefiting state-owned banks due to their traditional custodial roles [24][22] 3. Asset Quality and Credit Costs - Asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a projected year-on-year decline in the growth rate of impairment losses by 1.2% in Q3 2025. The report anticipates a slight decrease in credit costs as banks manage their loan portfolios effectively [39][37] - The report indicates that the overall credit cost for listed banks is expected to show a downward trend, providing a positive contribution to profit performance [34][39] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: high-quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with solid fundamentals. Recommended stocks include Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [5][41][42]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index, showcasing significant price increases and dividend yields for various companies [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top stock, 渝农商行 (601077.SH), experienced a price increase of 5.92% and a year-to-date increase of 24.04%, with a dividend yield of 4.25% [1]. - 泸州老窖 (000568.SZ) saw a 4.20% increase, with an 11.18% year-to-date rise and a dividend yield of 4.49% [1]. - 厦门银行 (601187.SH) recorded a 4.04% increase, a 21.43% year-to-date rise, and a dividend yield of 4.63% [1]. Group 2: Dividend Yields - The article lists several companies with notable dividend yields, including 家非亚 (002572.SZ) at 7.81%, and 究矿能源 (600188.SH) at 6.62% [1]. - 农业银行 (601288.SH) has a year-to-date increase of 39.52% and a dividend yield of 3.39% [1]. - 招商银行 (600036.SH) shows a year-to-date increase of 9.53% with a dividend yield of 4.85% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has become a focal point in the A-share market, with all 42 listed banks experiencing gains on October 14, driven by defensive capital inflows and improved valuations after a period of correction [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 14, all 42 banking stocks rose, with Chongqing Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains at 6.68% and 5.92%, respectively [3]. - Year-to-date, 19 banking stocks have increased over 10%, with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 39.52% [3]. - The banking sector had previously faced a downturn, with 41 banks experiencing declines after reaching their peak prices in July [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Performance - The recent rally in banking stocks is attributed to a shift towards defensive investments amid increased market volatility and declining risk appetite among investors [5]. - The sector's previous downturn was influenced by a preference for technology and growth stocks, leading to capital outflows from banks [4][5]. - The "dividend arbitrage" effect, where investors buy before dividends and sell afterward, contributed to the earlier corrections, but this negative impact has largely dissipated [4]. Group 3: Increased Stakeholder Confidence - There has been a notable trend of share buybacks by major shareholders and management in various banks, indicating confidence in the long-term value of banking stocks [6][7]. - For instance, Suzhou Bank reported significant share purchases by its major shareholder and management, reflecting a commitment to the bank's future [6]. - The banking sector's fundamentals remain strong, with a reported total operating income of 2.92 trillion yuan and a net profit of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Conservative investors are advised to focus on state-owned banks for stable dividends, while those with a moderate risk appetite may consider joint-stock banks for a balance of dividends and growth [8]. - Aggressive investors might look into high-quality city commercial banks to leverage regional economic advantages [8]. - For less experienced investors, ETFs in the banking sector are recommended to capture market trends [8].

中经财富是《中国经营报》旗下专注于银行板块、投资理财的媒体平台。让投资变简单，让您的财富天天升值！ 谈及本次银行股上涨的原因，业内人士认为，一方面目前市场环境催生防御性配置需求，带来银行配置机遇；二是政策导向为银行股带来上涨利 好。 中国城市专家智库委员会常务副秘书长林先平告诉《中国经营报》记者，近期，政策层面持续释放积极信号，这些都有助于改善银行资产质量预 期。 10月 11 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍了"十四五"时期住房城乡建设高质量发展成就，其中住房和城乡建设部副部长董建国介绍道，"十五五"期 间，住建部将继续和有关部门密切配合，立足于城市内涵式发展和城市更新大场景，落实好构建房地产发展新模式的各项任务，推动形成供应体 系健全、要素配置合理、监管制度规范、行业经营稳健的房地产发展新格局，促进房地产高质量发展。 市场波动率加大，具备防御特征的银行板块强势翻红。截至10月14日收盘，重庆银行涨幅达6.68%，42家上市银行全线飘红，银行指数 （886052.WI）涨幅达2.54%。 在业内人士看来，此轮银行股上涨，有多方面原因，一是在目前市场环境下，银行股防御性凸显；二是城市更新和构建房地产发展新模式有望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has become a focal point in the A-share market, with all 42 listed banks experiencing gains on October 14, driven by a combination of defensive capital inflow, valuation advantages after corrections, and strong fundamentals [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 14, all 42 bank stocks rose, with Chongqing Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains at 6.68% and 5.92%, respectively [1][2]. - Year-to-date, 19 bank stocks have increased by over 10%, with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 39.52% [2]. - The banking sector had previously experienced a correction, with 41 banks seeing declines after reaching their yearly highs in early July [2][3]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Performance - The recent rally in bank stocks is attributed to a "defensive switch" by investors amid increased market volatility and a decline in risk appetite due to renewed trade tensions between China and the U.S. [4][6]. - The sector's recovery follows a period of deep correction, making bank stocks attractive for risk-averse investors [4][6]. Group 3: Insider Buying Trends - There has been a notable trend of insider buying among banks, with major shareholders and management teams increasing their stakes, indicating confidence in the long-term value of bank stocks [5][6]. - For instance, Suzhou Bank reported significant insider purchases totaling approximately 2.98 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to see continued growth, supported by improved asset quality and profitability, as well as favorable government policies encouraging diversified operations [6][7]. - Investment strategies vary, with conservative investors advised to focus on state-owned banks for stable dividends, while more aggressive investors may consider high-performing regional banks for potential higher returns [7].