股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

近日，由南京银行（601009）江北新区分行主办的"芯动能 融未来"金融赋能芯片产业交流会在南京江 北新区科学城成功举办。本次活动汇聚了行业专家、券商代表、20家集成电路企业负责人近40人参加， 共同探讨金融与芯片产业深度融合路径，为区域集成电路发展注入新动能。 本次交流会的成功举办，得到了南京国家集成电路芯火平台及南京市集成电路行业协会的大力支持，标 志着南京银行服务芯片产业进入了更体系化、更专业化的新阶段。下一步，南京银行将持续迭代优化金 融服务，立足自身资源优势，组建专门力量、配置专业资源，制定专属方案、完善专项机制，秉持"与 地方经济同频共振"的理念，将政策与资金精准滴灌至产业最需处，以更强的使命感、更专业的服务、 更创新的金融工具，全力支持集成电路等战略性新兴产业高质量发展，为现代化产业体系建设贡献坚实 的金融力量。 南京江北新区科学城作为集成电路产业核心区域，目前已成为产业链最完备、创新资源最密集、人才活 力最充沛、资本市场最活跃的集成电路集聚区之一。活动现场，知名行业专家、知名券商代表，紧密围 绕企业需求分享芯片产业发展概况与机遇。南京银行公司金融部介绍了南京银行针对芯片产业的金融服 务体系，从 ...

除了银行端对信用卡分期费率的优惠外，财政贴息政策更让消费者享受到双重福利。1月20日，财政 部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局三部门联合印发通知，明确优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策。新 政发布后，多家银行迅速响应，密集发布实操细则与答疑指引，部分机构同步开启信用卡分期贴息补申 请通道，确保政策红利快速落地。 北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）年味渐淡，而超长春节假期消费后的账单压力正悄然袭来。2月24 日，马年复工首日，北京商报记者梳理发现，在财政贴息政策支持下，多家银行正密集加码信用卡分期 优惠，以折扣、优惠券、抽奖等"真金白银"的补贴方式降低居民信贷压力，助力消费市场开门红。 复工首日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上不少消费者晒出自己的信用卡分期账单。一位辽宁地区 的消费者分享，其近4万元账单分24期偿还，首期利息为56.38元，叠加财政贴息后单期分期利息再减免 17.19元。"银行给了2.1折的分期优惠券，折后年化利率约3.26%，出账时又叠加了1%的财政贴息，实际 年化利率降至2.26%，确实很划算。"另有北京地区的消费者表示，自己2万余元的分期账单分12期后， 在银行分期优惠折扣与1%的财政补贴双重 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

银行股马年首个交易日跌多涨少 2月24日，A股市场实现开门红，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%报4117.41点，深证成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨 0.99%。当天，沪深两市合计成交约2.2万亿元，较上一个交易日放量近2200亿元。 调研热情不及往年。 马年第一个交易日A股迎来开门红，银行股在市场火热情绪中继续被"冷落"，成为当天为数不多的飘绿 板块之一。 从消息面来看，当天最新LPR（贷款市场报价利率）出炉，1年期及5年期两个期限品种均连续9个月"按 兵不动"。央行节前披露的金融数据显示，尽管社融实现"开门红"，但信贷投放在1月罕见出现同比少 增。在此背景下，市场一方面更多关注信贷质量，另一方面也更加关注春节后开工节奏。 从机构对银行的调研情况来看，相较于往年同期，今年以来调研热情也有所回落，分化依然明显。第一 财经梳理发现，机构调研过程中的关注点主要集中在信贷投放尤其对公信贷景气度、息差压力下的负债 量价趋势和中收拓展能力，以及盈利压力下的资本补充计划等。 从板块表现来看，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4000只个股上涨、百余只个股涨停。截至收盘，31个申 万一级行业中，仅传媒、计算机、商贸零售等7个板块飘绿。其中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].

文丨吴海珊 编辑丨承承 11家A股银行发布2025年业绩快报，总资产平均增速11.32%，城商行盈利增速显著领先股份行。 截至2月11日，共有11家A股上市银行发布2025年业绩快报。包括4家股份行，6家城商行，1家农商行。 从业绩快报数据看，11家银行2025年总资产规模同比增速平均为11.32%，营业收入平均增速为3.30%， 归母净利润平均增速为7.83%。 申万宏源证券分析师郑庆明预计，上市银行2025年呈现"营收平稳，利润增速逐步改善"的特征，同时业 绩表现分化明显。他预计，上市银行2025年营收同比增长0.9%，归母净利润增速修复至1.9%。 股份行企稳 浦发、中信资产规模站上10万亿 截至2月11日，发布业绩快报的4家股份行（浦发银行、中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行）资产规模均突 破10万亿元。 其中，浦发银行2025年末的资产总额达至100817.46亿元，较2024年末增加6198.66亿元，增长 6.55%； 中信银行（601998．SH）资产总额达101316.58亿元，相比2024年末的95327.22亿元同比增长6.28%；招 商银行资产规模为130705.23亿元，同比增长7.56% ...