2026 年银行板块的投资机会如何？ 南京银行 20260205 摘要 预计 2026 年上市银行营收和利润增速将分别达到 2.8%和 2.7%，较 2025 年前三季度有所提升，主要受益于息差拖累的同比改善，预示着 银行板块盈利能力的复苏。 当前 10 年期国债收益率约为 1.8%，而银行股的股息率约为 4.5%，显 示出银行股较高的股息配置价值，尤其是在市场风格再平衡的背景下， 大金融板块的投资机会值得关注。 推荐具有新动能组合的大行（交行、工行、建行、中行、农行及港股六 大行）和中小行（南京银行、浦发银行、上海银行、玉农商行），以及 关注北京银行和华夏银行等困境反转标的。 南京银行被确定为 2026 年度金股，其投资逻辑包括业绩增速维持上市 城商行前列、ROE 有望步入上升通道，以及营收和利润增速呈现真 U 型 改善趋势。 南京银行贷款预计维持双位数增长，得益于江苏区域强劲信贷需求、转 债完成转股后的规模增长空间以及自身资产获取能力强劲。 Q&A 南京银未来催化因素及盈利展望如何？ 我们持续看好 2026 年的银行板块，认为其有整体绝对收益的行情。随着市场 风格平衡后，银行板块可能进入配置区间。从基本面 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Banking Sector Outlook Industry Overview - The conference focused on the banking sector, specifically discussing the performance and outlook of 11 listed banks in China for the year 2025 and beyond [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Overall Performance of Banks - The performance of the 11 banks exceeded expectations, indicating a robust resilience in the banking sector [1][6]. - The net interest margin (NIM) showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline contributing significantly to interest income and revenue growth [1][2]. 2. Sensitivity of Interest Income - Interest income is highly sensitive to changes in NIM; a decrease of 10 basis points (BP) in NIM could reduce net interest income growth by 7 percentage points, while a 5 BP decrease would result in a 3.5 percentage point reduction [2]. 3. Fee Income Recovery - There has been a recovery in fee income due to improved capital market conditions and asset allocation by residents, leading to a continuous improvement in bank fees [2][4]. 4. Potential for Old Bond Gains - The banks hold significant unrealized gains on old bonds, which presents a substantial opportunity for realization [3]. 5. Positive Outlook for 2026 - The overall judgment is that the situation in 2026 will be better than in 2025, driven by stable basis points, improving fees, and gains from old bonds [3]. 6. Investment Perspective - The investment strategy focuses on absolute returns, targeting a return on equity (ROE) of around 13% and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 times, indicating a reasonable pricing range [3][4]. - The recommendation is to select stocks based on high growth and high dividend yield, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Qilu [4][5]. 7. Performance of Specific Banks - Notable banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank showed positive revenue growth, with some banks transitioning from negative to positive growth [6][7]. - City commercial banks like Nanjing Bank and Qingdao Bank reported double-digit revenue growth, indicating strong performance [7][10]. 8. Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) - The asset quality remains stable, with many banks reporting a decrease in NPL ratios. For instance, Qingdao Bank's NPL ratio dropped significantly [10][11]. - The overall trend suggests a gradual improvement in asset quality, with expectations for continued stability in 2026 [11][12]. 9. Credit Growth and Demand - Credit growth is expected to remain strong, particularly in major provinces like Sichuan and Jiangsu, which reported credit growth rates above 8% [12][13]. - The demand for corporate loans remains robust, while retail loan demand is weaker [12]. 10. Future Risks and Projections - There are concerns regarding the potential exposure of retail loans, particularly in mortgage and consumer credit segments, but the overall increase in NPLs is expected to be limited [16][17]. - Projections for 2025 indicate a slight increase in NPL ratios for retail loans, but overall asset quality is expected to remain stable [17][18]. 11. Revenue Growth Expectations - The banking sector is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of approximately 1.2% year-on-year, with city commercial banks leading in net profit growth [19][20]. 12. Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy emphasizes high ROE and high dividend yield, with recommendations for both Hong Kong and A-share listed banks [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of wealth management in driving fee income, with expectations for continued positive contributions to revenue [19]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the banking sector's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the coming years [22].

Core Insights - The banking sector in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is showing strong performance in 2025, with significant growth in net profit and operating income driven by resilient regional economies and proactive credit issuance [1][2] Financial Performance - Several city and rural commercial banks reported growth in net profit and operating income, with Hangzhou Bank's net profit increasing by 12.05% to 19.03 billion yuan, while Nanjing Bank and Ningbo Bank reported net profits of 29.33 billion yuan and 21.81 billion yuan, respectively [1][3] - Nanjing Bank's operating income grew by 10.48% to 50.27 billion yuan, leading among city commercial banks, while Ningbo Bank's revenue increased by 8.01% to 71.97 billion yuan [5][4] - Loan balances showed double-digit growth, with Ningbo Bank's loan growth at 17.43%, and Hangzhou Bank's loans surpassing 1 trillion yuan with a growth of 14.33% [5][6] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai city commercial banks remains stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios either flat or declining. For instance, Pudong Development Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.26% [7][6] - The provision coverage ratio for Hangzhou Bank is notably high at 502.24%, indicating strong risk management practices [7][6] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income and intermediary business are becoming crucial for banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, especially under pressure from net interest margins [8][10] - Hangzhou Bank's retail customer assets under management (AUM) grew by 15.73%, contributing to a 13.1% increase in fee and commission income [8][10] - Ningbo Bank's net commission income surged by 30.72%, driven by a favorable capital market and wealth distribution business [9][10]

Group 1 - The event was organized to promote the training and support policies for e-commerce talent in response to provincial and municipal directives [2] - Over ten vocational colleges and more than twenty key e-commerce companies participated, along with representatives from financial institutions, indicating strong industry collaboration [2] - The meeting focused on popular areas such as live e-commerce, instant retail, and cross-border e-commerce, highlighting ongoing training activities and future plans [4] Group 2 - The city’s human resources department provided detailed explanations of employment skills training, youth employment internships, and skill level evaluation policies [4] - Representatives from e-commerce companies shared insights on talent training in live e-commerce and the latest developments in cross-border operations, along with their recruitment needs [4] - Future plans include collaboration among various departments to implement the "Star Plan" for live e-commerce and the "All-Level Talent Cultivation Plan" for companies going abroad, aiming to develop a skilled workforce in the e-commerce sector [4]

伴着"十五五"开局的奋进号角，踏着金融服务中国式现代化和强国建设的铿锵步伐，南京银行迎来 成立30周年的历史时刻！ 1996年2月8日，南京银行从古城金陵39家城市信用社的合并改制起步，成为国内首批设立的城商行 之一。30年来，发轫于金融改革洗礼，成长于经济腾飞浪潮，南京银行深刻诠释"服务地方经济、服务 中小企业、服务城乡居民"的初心使命，把自身成长融入城市发展、企业壮大、人民幸福的时代底色， 实现了从地方银行到国内系统重要性银行的蜕变，谱写了城商行改革发展的壮美篇章。 积微成著 铸就跨越发展 30年峥嵘淬炼，创新基因根植发展血脉。2001年，率先引入国际金融公司投资入股，创下单一外资 股东持股比例新高；2005年，牵手战略投资者法国巴黎银行，打造中外金融合作典范；2007年，成功登 陆资本市场，成为上交所城商行第一股；2008年，设立首家省外分支机构，迈出跨区域经营、走向长三 角的第一步。南京银行的30年，是一部勇毅探索、变革图强的创业史。 30年开拓进取，综合金融构建集团优势。2006年，投资入股日照银行；2009年，投资参股江苏金融 租赁和芜湖津盛农商银行，发起设立宜兴阳羡和昆山鹿城两家村镇银行；201 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on fixed income + products issued by wealth management companies, highlighting superior performing products available for investors through distribution channels [1] - A ranking of products is provided based on their annualized performance over the last month, three months, and six months, with a particular emphasis on the three-month annualized yield to reflect their performance amid recent market fluctuations [1] Distribution Channels - The report includes a list of 28 distribution institutions, which consist of major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [1] Product Performance - The ranking showcases various products with their respective annualized yields, indicating the performance metrics over different time frames, such as 2.64% for one month and 9.11% for three months for a specific product [5] - The data is sourced from the South Finance Financial Terminal, with statistics as of February 5, 2026, providing a snapshot of the current market offerings [5][10]

Core Insights - The article focuses on the performance of minimum holding period RMB public offering products, ranking them based on annualized returns for holding periods of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days [1] Group 1: 7-Day Holding Period Products - The top-performing product is from Minsheng Bank with an annualized return of 7.56% [5] - Other notable products include a 6.98% return from Shanghai Bank and a 6.04% return from Minsheng Bank [5] Group 2: 14-Day Holding Period Products - The leading product is from Minsheng Bank with a return of 7.39% [8] - China Bank follows with a return of 4.44% [8] Group 3: 30-Day Holding Period Products - The highest return is 18.14% from Hangzhou Bank [12] - Other significant returns include 12.34% from Minsheng Bank and 9.72% from Minsheng Bank [12][13] Group 4: 60-Day Holding Period Products - The top product is from China Bank with a return of 9.33% [15] - Other products include 5.95% from Shanghai Bank and 5.54% from Huaxia Bank [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 annual reports of listed companies are being released, revealing a number of companies with strong performance and continuous profit growth over the past five years [1][16]. Group 1: Company Performance - A total of 62 companies have reported continuous net profit growth for five consecutive years, with significant representation from the machinery, banking, automotive, and pharmaceutical industries [5][16]. - The machinery sector shows a remarkable increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of over 290% for 2025, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, as well as expansion into emerging markets [5][16]. - In the banking sector, eight companies are included, with China Merchants Bank achieving a net profit exceeding 150 billion yuan, marking a historical high [5][16]. - The automotive and pharmaceutical sectors each have six companies reporting substantial profit growth, with specific companies like Asia-Pacific Shares and Ninebot Company-WD showing net profit increases of over 50% for 2025 [5][16]. Group 2: Significant Growth Companies - Among the 62 companies, 49 have doubled their net profits, 14 have increased profits by over five times, and six have seen growth exceeding ten times, including Asia-Pacific Shares and Ninebot Company-WD [6][17]. - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leader in optical modules, reported a net profit of 9.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 90%, benefiting from strong demand for computing infrastructure [6][17]. - Companies like Cai Bai Shares and Hunan Gold have seen significant stock price increases, with Cai Bai Shares rising over 71% since 2026 and reporting a net profit of no less than 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of over 190% compared to five years ago [19][21]. Group 3: Institutional Research and Market Performance - Nearly 20 of the 62 companies have received institutional research since 2026, with Ninebot Company-WD and Zhongji Xuchuang receiving over 75 institutional inquiries each [21][22]. - The average stock price increase for the 62 companies is close to 8% for 2026, with 11 companies seeing cumulative increases exceeding 20% [18][22]. - Cai Bai Shares and Hunan Gold have both reported significant stock performance, with Hunan Gold's net profit growth exceeding 460% compared to five years ago [19][21].

伴着"十五五"开局的奋进号角，踏着金融服务中国式现代化和强国建设的铿锵步伐，南京银行迎来成立30周年的历史时 刻！ 1996年2月8日，南京银行从古城金陵39家城市信用社的合并改制起步，成为国内首批设立的城商行之一。30年来，发轫 于金融改革洗礼，成长于经济腾飞浪潮，南京银行深刻诠释"服务地方经济、服务中小企业、服务城乡居民"的初心使 命，把自身成长融入城市发展、企业壮大、人民幸福的时代底色，实现了从地方银行到国内系统重要性银行的蜕变，谱 写了城商行改革发展的壮美篇章。 30年倾力奉献，情系民生践行金融担当。连续15年、累计捐资2020万元，开展"圆梦行动"慈善助学活动；冠名支持南京 马拉松、世界田联室内锦标赛等城市体育盛事，与广大市民共享金融增益；开展金融知识进社区、进校园活动，构建安 全和谐的金融生态环境……持续践行"责任金融、和谐共赢"的文化理念。南京银行的30年，是一部初心为民、反哺社会 的责任史。 扎根地方 积微成著 铸就跨越发展 30年峥嵘淬炼，创新基因根植发展血脉。2001年，率先引入国际金融公司投资入股，创下单一外资股东持股比例新高； 2005年，牵手战略投资者法国巴黎银行，打造中外金融合作典 ...